Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2012 0:46:34 GMT -8
I have a good feeling about today...
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Mav
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 9, 2012 0:52:25 GMT -8
Tell me what you think after looking at the futures trends. They're back to even-ish. Now if you mean, there might be a trade amongst the chaos on a gap down/bounce combo of some kind, then, who knows? AAPL has defied pretty much every reference level since the 200-day. I need to see _something_ different from the past 2-3 weeks or whatever first. As Redler might say, power, commitment.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 9, 2012 2:07:48 GMT -8
LviPad If you you don't mind me asking, what is the EW currently saying regarding Apple? Where are we at? Has it just broken down for our current situation?
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Post by alice on Nov 9, 2012 2:19:52 GMT -8
Anyone else thinking of buying some protection? I am. I need hedging in place if aapl goes sub $500. What would you buy? I an looking at aapl jan13 $450 puts.
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Post by mtjs on Nov 9, 2012 3:06:31 GMT -8
I have a good feeling about today... I also have a good feeling ... about today ... About AAPL is totally different matter.
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Post by mtjs on Nov 9, 2012 3:08:38 GMT -8
Anyone else thinking of buying some protection? I am. I need hedging in place if aapl goes sub $500. What would you buy? I an looking at aapl jan13 $450 puts. I thought about getting another airbag for my car... if one stops so fast all of the sudden... I'll need something soft for my head. (and now I'll get some food to stop the dried out jokes )
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Post by fas550 on Nov 9, 2012 3:15:24 GMT -8
I think this is important. Recently there has been a lot of posts as to why this is happening. In our unending search for answers people take various positions. For this event and any other situation where someone is trying to convince for that matter, I have got great value from the following article. The article is about logical fallacies and does a very good job of equipping you to recognize when someone's position or point is breaking down as empirical evidence disappears and replaced with speculation. If you read it you will recognize many of the attributes in the positions that various people on this board have used now and for the past few days. I mean no ill will on anyone, not calling anyone out and certainly don't think people always maliciously use these techniques. A lot of this is just human nature on how we try to convince others. Why does this help me? It helps me recognize the difference between a position backed up with empirical evidence and one that is just a position and all the logical fallacies used to stand on that position. I then use this to weight the position to help me act or not act on the information. I have found it useful on many aspects of life dealing with others BTW. BBTW: This page was originally written with a creationist vs evolution slant. I have looked at many logical fallacy pages and I do like this one because it gives so many actual examples of positions whereas other pages do tend to make you go to a dictionary to deduce definitions and have few clear examples. Myself I find it easier to translate what is being said if I see an example regardless of the actual subject. So if you are creationist, evolutionist please don't take offense as that is not my purpose on the recommendation, recognizing logical fallacies is. www.theskepticsguide.org/resources/logicalfallacies.aspx
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Nov 9, 2012 4:00:34 GMT -8
Morning all
I've been stewing for a while on the Gou quote re iPhone 5 supply that has been much used in the media:
"Producing an iPhone is not an easy matter. We have no way to satisfy the huge market demand"
There has been some discussion here already and I won't repeat that but there is another angle I haven't seen mentioned. It would be entirely reasonable to think the the Chairman of a final assembler (based in China btw) would be not only looking at today but most importantly looking forward. I would suggest by AT LEAST a month or so. Can anyone think of anything happening in a month or so that would be creating additional tension in the supply chain today?...
Anyway, here's hoping that today could be the last day of the last red weekly candle. Is seven anyones lucky number?
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Post by wheeles on Nov 9, 2012 4:03:27 GMT -8
Morning all I've been stewing for a while on the Gou quote re iPhone 5 supply that has been much used in the media: "Producing an iPhone is not an easy matter. We have no way to satisfy the huge market demand" There has been some discussion here already and I won't repeat that but there is another angle I haven't seen mentioned. It would be entirely reasonable to think the the Chairman of a final assembler (based in China btw) would be not only looking at today but most importantly looking forward. I would suggest by AT LEAST a month or so. Can anyone think of anything happening in a month or so that would be creating additional tension in the supply chain today?... Or someone could have paid him to say that, or paid someone to attribute the quote to him. As the outgoing leader of China said only yesterday, they have a big problem with corruption.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 9, 2012 4:24:47 GMT -8
Apple put call ratio as of yesterday. Wish I could get a graph of this over time.
Put Volume: 648,752 contracts Call Volume: 782,089 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.83
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 9, 2012 4:40:16 GMT -8
Anyone else thinking of buying some protection? I am. I need hedging in place if aapl goes sub $500. What would you buy? I an looking at aapl jan13 $450 puts. Alice, look at spreads versus unhedged puts since IV is a bitch. For example, consider a 50-width bear put spread that costs around the same as that JAN'13 450 put. I hedged in and out from 705 to 585 (started hedging the first time we hit 680 on bearish divergence) with cheap OTM bear spreads. After that, just kept SPY bear put spreads, no AAPL. Took off the SPY end of day yesterday as I expect an oversold bounce at least from the darn index if not from AAPL.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 9, 2012 4:41:21 GMT -8
Apple put call ratio as of yesterday. Wish I could get a graph of this over time. Put Volume: 648,752 contracts Call Volume: 782,089 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 Is this what you're looking for? finance.avafin.com/stock/AAPL?chartType=options
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 4:41:28 GMT -8
Apple put call ratio as of yesterday. Wish I could get a graph of this over time. Put Volume: 648,752 contracts Call Volume: 782,089 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 That tells me there is still hope out there.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 4:46:48 GMT -8
Apple put call ratio as of yesterday. Wish I could get a graph of this over time. Put Volume: 648,752 contracts Call Volume: 782,089 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 Is this what you're looking for? Thank you for that link Rob. If anyone looks at it they will see a dramatic drop in the ratio on Monday. (.20) wow finance.avafin.com/stock/AAPL?chartType=options
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 9, 2012 4:54:50 GMT -8
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Post by Rupert on Nov 9, 2012 4:55:04 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Friday 11/09/2012
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Post by fas550 on Nov 9, 2012 5:01:50 GMT -8
Apple put call ratio as of yesterday. Wish I could get a graph of this over time. Put Volume: 648,752 contracts Call Volume: 782,089 contracts Put/Call Ratio: 0.83 Is this what you're looking for? finance.avafin.com/stock/AAPL?chartType=optionsYes that's it thanks. Umm still trying to interpret what it actually means. I do know more calls probably = good. Wonder if that includes Bear call spreads? Wonder if the volume is just how many changed hands?
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Post by Rupert on Nov 9, 2012 5:06:39 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 9, 2012 5:07:37 GMT -8
LviPad If you you don't mind me asking, what is the EW currently saying regarding Apple? Where are we at? Has it just broken down for our current situation? I posted this last night: Avi just lost his wife to cancer, so his focus has not been AAPL. That said, his downside target range, 138.2-161.8% of the APR-MAY downwave, is: 515-544. (I joined his group late last spring, and by summer, he had 680-710 target for the last upwave -- which I did not believe after the JUL'12 miss -- to be followed by 515-544 for this downwave -- which I did not believe after the last upwave.)This is Avi's site: www.elliottwavetrader.net/Avi Gilburt is the *only* EW pro I trust re: AAPL. IMHO, everyone else sucks. EW is highly analytic, but unlike TA, EW is *highly* subjective with multiple interpretations, highly susceptible to bias and disconnect from reality; thus I find the field of EW-ers riddled with analytic wonk types with little actual trading experience. Avi is a trader, and he's always objective in that he presents both bullish and bearish possibilities and targets with IF/THEN. No one knows what will happen next; everyone just guesses. For me, the only worthwhile forecasts are IF/THEN scenarios. Up or down is always a coin toss, so the more helpful forecast: is IF up, THEN target xxx. IF down, THEN target xxx. That's what Avi does.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 5:15:36 GMT -8
Ugh
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 5:17:02 GMT -8
I have a good feeling about today... Why?
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Post by lance on Nov 9, 2012 5:20:04 GMT -8
Where is TC? As much as I agree apple can't respond to every rumour/cnbc bashing. This is no longer just a dip it is the biggest drop in the stock since the recession by % and the longest drop in the history of the company by number of weeks in a row and the steepness of the move could result in 400's in a day. I believe TC is a great CEO and has done a good job taking over for the company, but I think the supply issue should be addressed as a shareholder I should know if there are serious problems. I shouldn't be finding out by some CEO of Foxconn that is unacceptable. If it is not a serious concern that is all he has to say. If your stock is on pace to be nearly to cut in half basically in 1 quarter I think the CEO should should either reassure investors that everything is okay or let them know that there are some issues. So they can make an educated decision on whether to invest in the company.
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Post by playultimate on Nov 9, 2012 5:20:31 GMT -8
AAPL closed two consecutive days at $530.xx back on Mar 6-7 and May 17-18. It looks to be heading there again.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 9, 2012 5:21:26 GMT -8
MY President will speak at 1:05 PM about fiscal cliff. It will be interesting to follow AAPL share price before and after.
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Post by highway2heel on Nov 9, 2012 5:23:08 GMT -8
This stocks value during the 2011 calendar year (sub $450) seems to be in play if fiscal cliff concerns are realized and tax cuts aren't extended. Am I crazy?
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Post by fas550 on Nov 9, 2012 5:26:02 GMT -8
LviPad If you you don't mind me asking, what is the EW currently saying regarding Apple? Where are we at? Has it just broken down for our current situation? I posted this last night: Avi just lost his wife to cancer, so his focus has not been AAPL. That said, his downside target range, 138.2-161.8% of the APR-MAY downwave, is: 515-544. (I joined his group late last spring, and by summer, he had 680-710 target for the last upwave -- which I did not believe after the JUL'12 miss -- to be followed by 515-544 for this downwave -- which I did not believe after the last upwave.)This is Avi's site: www.elliottwavetrader.net/Avi Gilburt is the *only* EW pro I trust re: AAPL. IMHO, everyone else sucks. EW is highly analytic, but unlike TA, EW is *highly* subjective with multiple interpretations, highly susceptible to bias and disconnect from reality; thus I find the field of EW-ers riddled with analytic wonk types with little actual trading experience. Avi is a trader, and he's always objective in that he presents both bullish and bearish possibilities and targets with IF/THEN. No one knows what will happen next; everyone just guesses. For me, the only worthwhile forecasts are IF/THEN scenarios. Up or down is always a coin toss, so the more helpful forecast: is IF up, THEN target xxx. IF down, THEN target xxx. That's what Avi does. Thanks. So outside of the current aberration how do you use his service and how do you apply it to appl (given he does not cover it).
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 5:26:03 GMT -8
No one knows what will happen next; everyone just guesses. For me, the only worthwhile forecasts are IF/THEN scenarios. Up or down is always a coin toss, so the more helpful forecast: is IF up, THEN target xxx. IF down, THEN target xxx. That's what Avi does. That is what I have always looked at EW as. (potential target moves). The move down from 705 was in plain sight, I just had a target (share price I was convinced would happen, it cam up a little short) After the 2 day shock back then it has all been about "its gotta find support". Well guess what? It doesn't. As irrational as the Feb to March move was, this is the same except on the other end.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 9, 2012 5:29:28 GMT -8
So imagine you are Andy Zaky this AM with his clients screaming/reminding him about his last recommendation and the previous alert of apple is an absolute buy at 530 (but that was 6 or so months ago). He is going to loose a lot of subscriptions over this but probably nothing compared to the position I assume he has on the stock.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 9, 2012 5:33:13 GMT -8
Kass tweeted that he has bought AAPL shares.
... as has Scott Redler.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 5:34:29 GMT -8
So imagine you are Andy Zaky this AM with his clients screaming/reminding him about his last recommendation and the previous alert of apple is an absolute buy at 530 (but that was 6 or so months ago). He is going to loose a lot of subscriptions over this but probably nothing compared to the position I assume he has on the stock. Andy poked the bear, the bear didn't like it. Once that trendline (625) was broken, we should have all gotten out. Trendlines are long term stories, AAPL's story changed.
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