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Post by rob_london on Nov 9, 2012 5:39:11 GMT -8
Whisper it very quietly but AAPL is showing a little relative strength in PMT. Of course it can all change in the blink of an eye...
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 9, 2012 5:41:19 GMT -8
Why are we rising in PM?
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Post by frqntflr on Nov 9, 2012 5:44:57 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 5:47:12 GMT -8
Whisper it very quietly but AAPL is showing a little relative strength in PMT. Of course it can all change in the blink of an eye... Rob, that actually has been our kiss of death for a while, up in PM, then violent drops. I don't know when the madness will stop, but at some point rational thinking people will step in and say enough. BOD, it is your job to protect the shareholders, help. Either authorize a split, or announce an expanded buyback. Puuulease.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 9, 2012 5:51:14 GMT -8
Well I'll give a prediction for today: We will go down (go figure) hopefully hard to 520 with good volume then in the best case reverse again with volume (saw some positive signs yesterday that the volume on upside turns was more than slides). Where we end up at the end of the day is really a coin toss but hopefully close up. Worse case we crash again today and Monday looks very good as planets align better for a positive run. Regardless the odds of a reversal increase everyday with this fall. The fear of a reversal and selling at bottom must be quite high right now. Lesson learned for me (among many): If Apple drops and the broader market does not, Apple is going to suffer further as the broader market starts its decent. SENTIMENT RULES on an individual equity basis AND on the broader market basis. This really complicates our next two earnings releases as the macro factors are going to really be in the forefront in the next 3 or so months. Best case is our public officials get their crap together earlier than later. (Although I reminded by a phrase I heard not too long ago: A politician will always take the path of least resistance regardless of consequences)
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Post by wraithyouth on Nov 9, 2012 5:51:16 GMT -8
BOD, it is your job to protect the shareholders, help. Either authorize a split, or announce an expanded buyback. Puuulease. This. Not to mention that the closer in size the market cap and the cash pile get, the more stupid takeover / take the company private speculation stories we get.
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Post by Iceage on Nov 9, 2012 5:53:40 GMT -8
So imagine you are Andy Zaky this AM with his clients screaming/reminding him about his last recommendation and the previous alert of apple is an absolute buy at 530 (but that was 6 or so months ago). He is going to loose a lot of subscriptions over this but probably nothing compared to the position I assume he has on the stock. Jason Schwartz is in no better position. He was recommending buying November strikes and then January's 700. Just a couple of days ago he panicked and recommended everybody to go cash. Huge losses if somebody followed all his moves although his track record before this AAPL crash was great. He timed the top pretty good but got back in too early like most of us.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 5:59:40 GMT -8
Agian, this article focuses on the fundamentals of Apple, the story of AAPL is irrational.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Nov 9, 2012 6:00:28 GMT -8
sub 500 and im going to scream....
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Post by frqntflr on Nov 9, 2012 6:02:37 GMT -8
Agian, this article focuses on the fundamentals of Apple, the story of AAPL is irrational. yes, but somewhere along the way fundamentals will take over again ... only question is when
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Post by blofeld on Nov 9, 2012 6:05:33 GMT -8
there are a lot of companies with good cash flow - like HP and Dell - that trade for lower PE than our fruit basket. PE compression has been going on for a while with AAPL; no guarantee it cannot go on for longer ... (5.3x like Dell plus the cash = ~ 360$).
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 6:05:38 GMT -8
So imagine you are Andy Zaky this AM with his clients screaming/reminding him about his last recommendation and the previous alert of apple is an absolute buy at 530 (but that was 6 or so months ago). He is going to loose a lot of subscriptions over this but probably nothing compared to the position I assume he has on the stock. Jason Schwartz is in no better position. He was recommending buying November strikes and then January's 700. Just a couple of days ago he panicked and recommended everybody to go cash. Huge losses if somebody followed all his moves although his track record before this AAPL crash was great. He timed the top pretty good but got back in too early like most of us. Yeah, people can't be to mad at Jason. It was posted here, albeit late, that he had told his people to get out before the first drop. Overall he as missed quite a bit of the drop. Protecting your bullets and living to fight another day. I used to follow those rules, I don't know what happened.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 9, 2012 6:07:38 GMT -8
We are currently 542 PM, after being as low as 534. We had been 538 about 20 minutes ago. Is it that Kass went bullish?
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 6:08:21 GMT -8
sub 500 and im going to scream.... you haven't already? There is a nasty little gap around 475 I believe. the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 9, 2012 6:09:57 GMT -8
Jason Schwartz is in no better position. He was recommending buying November strikes and then January's 700. Just a couple of days ago he panicked and recommended everybody to go cash. Huge losses if somebody followed all his moves although his track record before this AAPL crash was great. He timed the top pretty good but got back in too early like most of us. Yeah, people can't be to mad at Jason. It was posted here, albeit late, that he had told his people to get out before the first drop. Overall he as missed quite a bit of the drop. Protecting your bullets and living to fight another day. I used to follow those rules, I don't know what happened. This "parabolic" decline has changed the rules of the game, at least temporarily. Jason and AZ were playing by the old rules (as were most of us).
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Post by rob_london on Nov 9, 2012 6:10:08 GMT -8
Munster: "iPhone 5 supplies are improving"
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Post by fas550 on Nov 9, 2012 6:13:20 GMT -8
So imagine you are Andy Zaky this AM with his clients screaming/reminding him about his last recommendation and the previous alert of apple is an absolute buy at 530 (but that was 6 or so months ago). He is going to loose a lot of subscriptions over this but probably nothing compared to the position I assume he has on the stock. Jason Schwartz is in no better position. He was recommending buying November strikes and then January's 700. Just a couple of days ago he panicked and recommended everybody to go cash. Huge losses if somebody followed all his moves although his track record before this AAPL crash was great. He timed the top pretty good but got back in too early like most of us. Wow didn't know that. That was either pretty dumb (like being driven by emotion) or shows a lack of commitment to the fundamentals which is all you have as an investor (vs trader). reminds me of Cramer saying last year Apple is just another company and he can't recommend then when they blew the numbers he said don't buy now because of the price action after earnings. Only when they went parabolic did he change his tune. Basically Cramer was selling low and buying very high. Regardless most of them are full of crap and simply follow the herd.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 9, 2012 6:13:30 GMT -8
Jason Schwartz is in no better position. He was recommending buying November strikes and then January's 700. Just a couple of days ago he panicked and recommended everybody to go cash. Huge losses if somebody followed all his moves although his track record before this AAPL crash was great. He timed the top pretty good but got back in too early like most of us. Yeah, people can't be to mad at Jason. It was posted here, albeit late, that he had told his people to get out before the first drop. Overall he as missed quite a bit of the drop. Protecting your bullets and living to fight another day. I used to follow those rules, I don't know what happened. You're not the only one, Mark. I think we were getting complacent by the slow drop - 2 days down, then a retrace up - and we looked up and we're at 620. If it had been more violent of a drop, I think it would have had us on our toes. We also were looking for the rebound back up, which we thought was coming any day. Obviously, no one knew of the severity of this decline.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 6:20:01 GMT -8
there are a lot of companies with good cash flow - like HP and Dell - that trade for lower PE than our fruit basket. PE compression has been going on for a while with AAPL; no guarantee it cannot go on for longer ... (5.3x like Dell plus the cash = ~ 360$). WOW, HP has negative earnings. How is that good cash flow? They are paying out a dividend while accumulating debt, how is that fiscally responsible? DELL is not much better. Lets not forget that Apple actually posted solid 22% YOY EPS growth 2 weeks ago.
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Post by tradermac on Nov 9, 2012 6:22:16 GMT -8
LviPad If you you don't mind me asking, what is the EW currently saying regarding Apple? Where are we at? Has it just broken down for our current situation? I posted this last night: Avi just lost his wife to cancer, so his focus has not been AAPL. That said, his downside target range, 138.2-161.8% of the APR-MAY downwave, is: 515-544. (I joined his group late last spring, and by summer, he had 680-710 target for the last upwave -- which I did not believe after the JUL'12 miss -- to be followed by 515-544 for this downwave -- which I did not believe after the last upwave.)This is Avi's site: www.elliottwavetrader.net/Avi Gilburt is the *only* EW pro I trust re: AAPL. IMHO, everyone else sucks. EW is highly analytic, but unlike TA, EW is *highly* subjective with multiple interpretations, highly susceptible to bias and disconnect from reality; thus I find the field of EW-ers riddled with analytic wonk types with little actual trading experience. Avi is a trader, and he's always objective in that he presents both bullish and bearish possibilities and targets with IF/THEN. No one knows what will happen next; everyone just guesses. For me, the only worthwhile forecasts are IF/THEN scenarios. Up or down is always a coin toss, so the more helpful forecast: is IF up, THEN target xxx. IF down, THEN target xxx. That's what Avi does. I'm so sorry to hear about his loss. Kinda makes all this angst over the balance of our accounts seem trivial when you lose the ones you love. Perspective is everything.
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Post by wraithyouth on Nov 9, 2012 6:22:19 GMT -8
there are a lot of companies with good cash flow - like HP and Dell - that trade for lower PE than our fruit basket. PE compression has been going on for a while with AAPL; no guarantee it cannot go on for longer ... (5.3x like Dell plus the cash = ~ 360$). That comparison kind of ignores the fact that AAPL is still growing (and has a proven ability to effectively enter and disrupt (phones) or more or less create (tablets) significant new markets), while HP/Dell have displayed significant ineptitude in recent years at anything beyond their existing core businesses - and those are mostly in shrinking markets.
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Post by alice on Nov 9, 2012 6:22:42 GMT -8
It is good to see green this morning.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Nov 9, 2012 6:23:49 GMT -8
Bad numbers being reported at JC Penny today. Ron Johnson is being exposed as a non retail genius. Apparently when your selling the worlds all time leading product line, it makes the person running the retail stores look a lot smarter than he actually is.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 9, 2012 6:24:29 GMT -8
We are currently 542 PM, after being as low as 534. We had been 538 about 20 minutes ago. Is it that Kass went bullish? He did just post his reasons for buying AAPL on RealMoneyPro but it is behind a paywall and I don't subscribe.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 9, 2012 6:25:09 GMT -8
quite a swing, i saw 533 when I woke up, 538 when I left for work, and 542+ when I loaded up my stuff at work. I'll take it, but it sure does look like the good ole BAIT N TANK haha.
could they do that to us again?!
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 9, 2012 6:27:17 GMT -8
Morning all I've been stewing for a while on the Gou quote re iPhone 5 supply that has been much used in the media: "Producing an iPhone is not an easy matter. We have no way to satisfy the huge market demand" There has been some discussion here already and I won't repeat that but there is another angle I haven't seen mentioned. It would be entirely reasonable to think the the Chairman of a final assembler (based in China btw) would be not only looking at today but most importantly looking forward. I would suggest by AT LEAST a month or so. Can anyone think of anything happening in a month or so that would be creating additional tension in the supply chain today?... Anyway, here's hoping that today could be the last day of the last red weekly candle. Is seven anyones lucky number? Hmm, should have bookmarked it, but yesterday saw a very short article where someone goes back to the original Chinese and analyzes the translation. Short version: Gou referred to the demand as "massive" or "gargantuan", so a perfectly reasonable interpretation is that Foxconn is pretty much on schedule to deliver what they and Apple planned, but demand is much higher than planned for. Not certain of course, but if the actual vs sloppy reported translation is real as according to that one observer, a more reasonable interpretation than: Foxconn is pathetic and totally botched when planning for this release.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 6:29:39 GMT -8
Long time lurker at the old board...
It looks like fear of the end of hyper growth era and "lack of fear" missing the upside train is ruling since late Sept.
Given that framework, I wonder what call change the sentiment? What can management do that is both credible AND sustainable? I doubt they will change guidance since they have no idea on real underlying demand since they are stocked out. The only thing I think of that the management can and should do as responsible stewards of Apple is:
1) Buy as much stock as possible under their guidance of employee dilution and their none specific language about other authorization/programs from the earnings call. 2) Seek approval from the BOD to grant a huge share buy back for say 2-3 years. Start buying with ALL the investment bank desks. Give the pros go long and short to cover. 3) At the same time, announce that the board would consider other measures to protect shareholder and employee interests such as but not limited to more buy backs, issuing debt to buy shares etc.
Right now out of their 125B cash, only 40B is on shore, which they want for safety and in case they want to acquire something. I think this is too conservative. I believe they should be able to use most of the 40B IF NEEDED to add value to shareholders ( buy back). Then use debt issuance or credit lines or god forbid cash flows from ops do the rest.
2% ten year yields and 10 PE stock? Why buy if they don't? Imagine the the buyers panic. Even not, imagine the EPS growth if it shrinks the float 10% at 550 or below. IMHO investors don't give credit for the cash then use it. There is still 80b offshore!
Sorry for the rant and would love to hear positive and especially NEGATIVE POVs. I hope Gregg with reappear and comment. Others too! I believe you need to kick the sh%t out of the downside case and if it survives then to it a great investment.
IBuyer
PS Also, for the first time there is truly competition on smartphones and tablets. As a loyal owner of about a dozen iPods, iPhones and iPads, AAPL needs to press on gas pedal and for the first time (since 2007) look in the rear view mirror.
PPS too long AAPL
PPPS I do not believe in EOs just people scared sh&tless like me.
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Post by wheeles on Nov 9, 2012 6:30:11 GMT -8
Kass tweeted that he has bought AAPL shares. ... as has Scott Redler. And as if that's not an attempt to manipulate the stock, I don't know what is. Sure, it would be to my benefit, but typical of people like Kass.
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Post by lance on Nov 9, 2012 6:35:00 GMT -8
0.30% up after 8% down in two days is crap. More down appears to be coming.
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Post by fas550 on Nov 9, 2012 6:36:45 GMT -8
C'mon baby keep going, stay green. Put FUD in Bears.... Ah never mind then.
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