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Post by Zeke on Nov 9, 2012 8:26:18 GMT -8
its funny i haven't heard cnbc say wow apple is up 1.5% yet. or anything. past week they would mention apple tanking every 5 minutes. scum Comes under the heading: "How to buy a bargain without tipping anyone else off." It takes media cooperation.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 8:26:34 GMT -8
The key right now is to look at revenue, not EPS. I realize that sounds dumb but it is the key for this Q. History tells us Apple will realize reduced gross margins due to product transitions. The real key is revenue growth because that shows demand for Apple's products globally continues to grow. Margins will normalize in the coming quarters. If revenue continues to ramp (I can't see how it won't with the smart phone market growing significantly still and for the foreseeable future) EPS will increase, perhaps disproportionately to the upside. Very good post Adam. TC redirected the analyst away from the EPS number during the CC and told them to focus on the revenue. It is still hard to get that guidance number out of the mind. It was a $1 light from what was a YOY basis. The extra week is an issue, but one that AAPL should not be penalized for. No other company is.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 9, 2012 8:27:46 GMT -8
Obama @ 1pm should give us a lot more volume I think (whether up or down we will see). I hope there is something concrete in his speech and not a blame game, or it could ruin our fun.
If it's good, I think we'd get a burst of volume coming in, and put our party hats on, at least for the rest of today.
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Post by nathanstevens on Nov 9, 2012 8:29:04 GMT -8
The key right now is to look at revenue, not EPS. I realize that sounds dumb but it is the key for this Q. History tells us Apple will realize reduced gross margins due to product transitions. The real key is revenue growth because that shows demand for Apple's products globally continues to grow. Margins will normalize in the coming quarters. If revenue continues to ramp (I can't see how it won't with the smart phone market growing significantly still and for the foreseeable future) EPS will increase, perhaps disproportionately to the upside. Adam, I Totally agree with you about the importance of revenue over EPS for this quarter. I think that margins will likely be back in line for the following quarter. I also don't expect revs to drop off much, if at all, from the December quarter. I think TC was hinting at this on the conf. call when discussing the importance of china.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 9, 2012 8:29:08 GMT -8
When I hear MSFT is a Apple competitor in the smartphone and tablet market it is like me saying I am a competitor to George Clooney for leading roles of major movies. The common factor is I nor MSFT is even a blip on the pie chart of competitors. Not yet at least. I think it all depends on how MSFT approaches it. They aren't likely to be a real competitor on their own, but if they're willing to partner (including big $$$, marketing, etc) with others, and if they are willing to "stay the course", it is entirely possible that they could become a real competitor in this market. People I trust have told me that their new OS is quite nice and could be very attractive to customers. However, I think it's a greater threat to Android than to iOS, though definitely a threat to both with regards to market share. Exactly. The increased popularity of Hyundai and Kia is a threat to Toyota and Honda, not BMW or Mercedes. It's the beauty of being a luxury brand, which Apple is, regardless of whether is pricing is competitive or not.
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Post by Zeke on Nov 9, 2012 8:34:38 GMT -8
"That comparison kind of ignores the fact that AAPL is still growing" Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. At least that's what Wall Street is wondering. believe that is what this sell off is all about. 90 points straight down since earnings and guidance were released, guidance which predicted earnings reduction for the first time since the iPod era. Yes, they lowball guidance, but not by all that much under Tim C. So, Jan may decrease trailing twelve month earnings-- they're valuing it based in what the PE might be in Feb. fair? Accurate? Doesn't matter, it's based on fear, yes, but fear about apple turning into a negative growth story like HP - so it's reducing Apples PE toward that level. How stupid does one have to be to believe that Apple is not growing? Don't even mention Apple and HP in the same sentence when you talk about growth stories. These CNBC/MSNBC/FOX "analysts" live in echo chambers of ignorance. They apply the same simplistic formulae to wildly different situations and produce this kind of nonsense, then they all nod their heads sagely and agree with each other. Their simple minded viewers, who have been pumped up to believe they are real investors then stampede which ever way they are pushed. Then add in the real manipulators like Kass and Cramer and you have a rigged system that follows no logic at all.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 8:35:26 GMT -8
UBS have visited Apple and reiterate their $780 price target. "The company does not see new categories to create and appears interested in services... surprisingly it played down the mobile wallet opportunity" "We don't see structural gross margin issues" "Management was bullish regarding its growth opportunities" Good info. they commented cash was invested for preservation with treasuries and corporates average 1-2 year maturity. Low low return. If we keep thinking buy back will they hear us? Also shifted from prepayment of supplier to owning the fixed asset plants. Most of cap ex on this last year and 2nd highest on data centers. IMO look out Internet 2.0 service. AAPL and it 500m users are coming to take your market !
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 8:36:05 GMT -8
RBC Capital calculate that a China Mobile deal could add $3 per share to Apple's annual profit. That would seem to be a little light, but would be welcome. In the first year I would think Apple could sell +1 mil units a month to CM. That would add 7+ billion in rev. Depending on margins and taxes the net would be above the implied 2.7 billion I would think. either way. It is still a large addition from just on carrier. Not AT&T large, but still significant. I really don't see how te first quarter numbers from CM would not be huge. All those people who have an iphone already would see a dramatic difference in performance.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 8:38:07 GMT -8
Obama @ 1pm should give us a lot more volume I think (whether up or down we will see). I hope there is something concrete in his speech and not a blame game, or it could ruin our fun. If it's good, I think we'd get a burst of volume coming in, and put our party hats on, at least for the rest of today. +100
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Post by Zeke on Nov 9, 2012 8:40:07 GMT -8
I agree. Sandbag or not, 14 vs 13 weeks, whatever. Guiding an EPS decline was ridiculous. Unless its actually feasible, which is terrifying. The key right now is to look at revenue, not EPS. I realize that sounds dumb but it is the key for this Q. History tells us Apple will realize reduced gross margins due to product transitions. The real key is revenue growth because that shows demand for Apple's products globally continues to grow. Margins will normalize in the coming quarters. If revenue continues to ramp (I can't see how it won't with the smart phone market growing significantly still and for the foreseeable future) EPS will increase, perhaps disproportionately to the upside. Perhaps the most intelligent statement made anywhere on the planet today. I was massively long in August and remain so.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 8:47:07 GMT -8
RBC Capital calculate that a China Mobile deal could add $3 per share to Apple's annual profit. Would best if they manage it so march quarter is guidance is strong. Key to break the bearish thesis is supply not longer constrained and non launch quarter strong demand. We will see 700 again if that happens.
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Post by Zeke on Nov 9, 2012 8:48:43 GMT -8
Obama @ 1pm should give us a lot more volume I think (whether up or down we will see). I hope there is something concrete in his speech and not a blame game, or it could ruin our fun. If it's good, I think we'd get a burst of volume coming in, and put our party hats on, at least for the rest of today. Perhaps the performance this morning is due to "previews" of the 1 pm speech?
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Post by fas550 on Nov 9, 2012 8:49:14 GMT -8
When I hear MSFT is a Apple competitor in the smartphone and tablet market it is like me saying I am a competitor to George Clooney for leading roles of major movies. The common factor is I nor MSFT is even a blip on the pie chart of competitors. Not yet at least. I think it all depends on how MSFT approaches it. They aren't likely to be a real competitor on their own, but if they're willing to partner (including big $$$, marketing, etc) with others, and if they are willing to "stay the course", it is entirely possible that they could become a real competitor in this market. People I trust have told me that their new OS is quite nice and could be very attractive to customers. However, I think it's a greater threat to Android than to iOS, though definitely a threat to both with regards to market share. Given the most recent history (like 5 years) MSFT have not shown me nor anyone else I think the ability to innovate (like be ahead of a curve) nor execute well on any of their business units EXCEPT for the Xbox. Myself I believe this is primarily the fault and responsibility of Balmer. He seethes mediocrity in all things tech and this arrogant attitude of well we are the biggest has trickled down throughout the company. I just don't think they can do it IMHO. Basically they are on the wrong side of history with the era of PC dominance coming to an end which is basically where their expertise and concentration are focused. They will always be around and be around big for quite some time but good old days of huge product releases that got everyone excited are over. When I hear talk about MSFT now in the Corp world it is never about innovation and more often than not complaints about their licensing business model.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 9, 2012 8:55:02 GMT -8
Now THAT is a little AAPL power. iPad, let me know when I start buying back in. On this retrace, watch SMA-50 on the 5 min chart, currently around 543.50. If it holds, that's a long entry.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 9, 2012 8:56:12 GMT -8
How many chickies will I have...? Lemme see...1,2,3,4,5,6,7, 700+ by JAN'13 I figure I've called enough bottoms from 585 to here...what's one more? THIS SURE LOOKS LIKE IT!!!! Lovey, I think you have lost your mind, but if by some strange miracle 700 did happen in Jan, I will be forever grateful and send you an internet everyday. I know I am asking a lot, but getting over and closing above that 50 week average would seem to mean something. (556) How twisted is this, rooting for 556, unbelievable.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 9, 2012 8:57:19 GMT -8
Horace Dediu tweeted interesting data regarding the number of operators that iPhone is sold through:
America: 67 operators out of a total of 164 Middle East and Africa: 37 operators out of a total of 250. Europe: 86 operators out of a total of 192. Asia/Pacific: 40 operators out of a total of 198.
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Post by madmaxroi on Nov 9, 2012 9:00:47 GMT -8
Horace Dediu tweeted interesting data regarding the number of operators that iPhone is sold through: America: 67 operators out of a total of 164 Middle East and Africa: 37 operators out of a total of 250. Europe: 86 operators out of a total of 192. Asia/Pacific: 40 operators out of a total of 198. Interesting. Even more interesting would be the number of subscribers.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 9:01:18 GMT -8
Horace Dediu tweeted interesting data regarding the number of operators that iPhone is sold through: America: 67 operators out of a total of 164 Middle East and Africa: 37 operators out of a total of 250. Europe: 86 operators out of a total of 192. Asia/Pacific: 40 operators out of a total of 198. Is that bullish or bearish rob? Note that MENA and AP have large per-paid markets. Concern is that lowest hang fruit picked...
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 9:05:00 GMT -8
Noon ~ 19m traded. 10 day average daily 21.5m.
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Post by ccs on Nov 9, 2012 9:10:38 GMT -8
Volume drying up headed into the President's speech.
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Post by ccs on Nov 9, 2012 9:14:42 GMT -8
Just my WAG, but I think we Pop or Plummet soon after ( + or - $15). I don't think there is any chance we move sideways.
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Post by sponge on Nov 9, 2012 9:16:16 GMT -8
Just my WAG, but I think we Pop or Plummet soon after ( + or - $15). I don't think there is any chance we move sideways. I think we will go down hard after 1. The speech will do it. I am now waiting for 510 by Thanksgiving.
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Post by dougal on Nov 9, 2012 9:19:26 GMT -8
Thanks for posting this. Very important viewpoint.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 9, 2012 9:19:39 GMT -8
can buy 4-hour-left 540 PUT and 560 CALL for a .90 net right now. just sayin...
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 9, 2012 9:22:49 GMT -8
Tough call at this point. We'll see how the market reacts after 1PM.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 9, 2012 9:28:06 GMT -8
TARGET's Apple products in Thanksgiving ad:
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Post by bryanyc on Nov 9, 2012 9:33:04 GMT -8
Bought 550 - 560 weekly bcs an 2 hours ago. Will see where it lands up. AAPL is not waiting for the speech, it is forging ahead. I think we might see iPads wish, a 100% retrace of yesterday to 560.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 9, 2012 9:36:03 GMT -8
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Post by wraithyouth on Nov 9, 2012 9:37:18 GMT -8
I don't trust this... I feel like this is just a head feint to knock off weak shorts, and lure some more suckers in off the sidelines. That said, it's still nice to see green for a change!
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Post by ccs on Nov 9, 2012 9:43:23 GMT -8
Closed out some green Jan'13 positions ahead of the speech. Back to 50% cash and waiting for the dust to settle. I don't have a good feeling about this upcoming speech.... good luck to all!
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