|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 13:55:13 GMT -8
Capital gains tax rates are likely to rise, and some of the selling is to get out with one's profits while the rate is 15%. I have read that many times, but why now? There are almost 2 months lefts in the year. That, and if you're just trying to take profit now at the lower rate to increase your cost basis for the higher rate, you sell & re-buy immediately.[/quote] Greedy, you butchered the quote editing. I did not say that part you have attributed to me.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Nov 10, 2012 14:34:54 GMT -8
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd (鴻海精密) yesterday posted 14.62 percent monthly growth in unconsolidated revenue last month, boosted by robust sales of Apple Inc’s iPhones and iPads. Revenue expanded to NT$275.7 billion (US$9.5 billion) last month, compared with NT$240.54 billion a month earlier. On an annual basis that represents a decline of 6.71 percent from NT$295.54 billion. Hon Hai attributed the growth to strong demand for consumer electronics. “The figure is largely in line with our expectations,” said Birdy Lu (呂家霖), an analyst with Daiwa Capital Markets, who forecast a monthly increase of between 13 percent and 17 percent for Hon Hai’s sales last month. Lu said Hon Hai’s revenue would likely grow further this month and hold steady next month if the firm makes a break-through in ramping up production of Apple products. That would be in contrast to the normal seasonal pattern as revenue usually dips next month, he said. Lu forecast that Hon Hai would post 20 percent sequential growth in revenue this quarter from NT$711 billion last quarter, due to strong demand for Apple’s iPhone 5 and iPad Mini, according to a report released earlier this month. Lu rated Hon Hai as “buy” with a six-month target price of NT$120, implying about a 31 percent rise from the stock’s closing price of NT$91.4 yesterday. In the first 10 months of the year, Hon Hai accumulated NT$2.51 trillion in unconsolidated revenue, up 16.65 percent from NT$2.15 trillion in the same period last year. here!
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
|
Post by Ted on Nov 10, 2012 14:46:27 GMT -8
Get ready to read more comments like these from MS: Sales of Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) tablet Surface "are starting modestly," said the company's chief executive, Steve Ballmer, in an interview with French daily Le Parisien published Saturday, adding that this is due to Surface only being available online and in a few Microsoft stores in the U.S. So sales are going "smoothly!" www.smartmoney.com/news/on/?story=on-20121110-000216&cid=1244&source=TheMotleyFool
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 14:52:37 GMT -8
Surface launched just as iPad mini debuted.
This is a very, very tough market for Microsoft to be in right now. It's not the value player, not even close, when even overpriced Apple iPads start at $329. And with Apple and Android vendors both in the way, it's gonna take time for Surface to make inroads.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 15:43:47 GMT -8
Get ready to read more comments like these from MS: Sales of Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) tablet Surface "are starting modestly," said the company's chief executive, Steve Ballmer, in an interview with French daily Le Parisien published Saturday, adding that this is due to Surface only being available online and in a few Microsoft stores in the U.S. So sales are going "smoothly!" www.smartmoney.com/news/on/?story=on-20121110-000216&cid=1244&source=TheMotleyFoolModestly, what no lines, no pre-orders sold out online?
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
|
Post by Ted on Nov 10, 2012 16:19:01 GMT -8
All the stupid, poorly-reasoned articles about Apple going down in flames in the last few weeks are such a joke. We here all know that. This bad press used to bug me and make me want to write the authors hate mail, but not any more. Now I realize that I should just embrace these articles for what they are: sheep frighteners - unthinking, easily-swayed investors ready to sell low and buy high. Anyone who knows even a bit about Apple's past earnings, brand value/recognition, sales trends, bank balance, guidance, company culture, etc. should only smirk knowingly at crappily written link bait. Let the weak hands be influenced by this shlock and drive the price down while we, the better informed, snicker and keep some powder dry to take advantage of bargain basement sales. All the chatter about iPhone production problems had me nervous, but now not at all. I foolishly hadn't listened to the last conference call, but finally got a chance yesterday. I took a few notes, and, as I listened, was filled with newfound confidence about this quarter (yesterday being green helped too). Specifically, from the call, Tim said that he felt good about iPhone availability, that their outlook for X-Mas was very positive, "extremely bullish" on "robust" demand for Q1, the ramp was going well, confident with supply... He addressed these issues many times. Truly, there was no need to read those "journalists'" articles 'cause the CEO had already discussed production - and he knows the actual facts! With revs estimated at $52B for Q1 and with pretty low to realistic expectations of them beating that by, say, 8 to 10%, then I think we'll all be feeling better soon enough when they report ~56B in January!
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 16:26:45 GMT -8
Baaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhh I am still scared to death.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 10, 2012 16:31:11 GMT -8
Completely off topic........the IFC television network ( movie channel on most cable or satellite packages) is running a Star Trek movie marathon today and wants viewers to vote for their favorite captain...that fat pompous Kirk or the erudite, sophisticated Picard. Vote early and often. Take your mind off the markets with some galactic drama. Lovey....your favorite? Speaking of Kirk, I am going to see William Shatner in December in Newark, at the NJ Performing Arts Center. Looking forward to it.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 10, 2012 16:32:25 GMT -8
Hello world - after 13 days I finally have cable and internet back! The only news I was getting was a newspaper or a radio - and WHAT TIMING with AAPL price action through it all! Hope everyone is doing well...so nice to be fully functional. Have lots of reading to catch up on. Glad to have you back, Phoebes. We missed you.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 16:44:01 GMT -8
Hello world - after 13 days I finally have cable and internet back! The only news I was getting was a newspaper or a radio - and WHAT TIMING with AAPL price action through it all! Hope everyone is doing well...so nice to be fully functional. Have lots of reading to catch up on. Glad to have you back, Phoebes. We missed you. +100
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
|
Post by mark on Nov 10, 2012 16:44:59 GMT -8
I have read that many times, but why now? There are almost 2 months lefts in the year. The is nothing likely about it, CG are going up on LT holdings. I am not against the move to 20%, but the surtax crosses the line. I also think the dramatic hike in dividend taxation is just wrong. (I will say this about dividend though. I would like to see legislation passed to stop corporations from paying a dividend from borrowed funds) If a company is adding debt to the balance sheet they have no business paying a dividend. This would be very difficult legislation to write. For example, what about a company that takes on a bunch of new debt in a quarter to purchase another company? Are they supposed to suspend their dividend for that quarter? Or what about a company that seasonally has some good quarters and some bad quarters regularly?
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 10, 2012 16:45:24 GMT -8
All the stupid, poorly-reasoned articles about Apple going down in flames in the last few weeks are such a joke. We here all know that. This bad press used to bug me and make me want to write the authors hate mail, but not any more. Now I realize that I should just embrace these articles for what they are: sheep frighteners - unthinking, easily-swayed investors ready to sell low and buy high. Anyone who knows even a bit about Apple's past earnings, brand value/recognition, sales trends, bank balance, guidance, company culture, etc. should only smirk knowingly at crappily written link bait. Let the weak hands be influenced by this shlock and drive the price down while we, the better informed, snicker and keep some powder dry to take advantage of bargain basement sales. All the chatter about iPhone production problems had me nervous, but now not at all. I foolishly hadn't listened to the last conference call, but finally got a chance yesterday. I took a few notes, and, as I listened, was filled with newfound confidence about this quarter (yesterday being green helped too). Specifically, from the call, Tim said that he felt good about iPhone availability, that their outlook for X-Mas was very positive, "extremely bullish" on "robust" demand for Q1, the ramp was going well, confident with supply... He addressed these issues many times. Truly, there was no need to read those "journalists'" articles 'cause the CEO had already discussed production - and he knows the actual facts! With revs estimated at $52B for Q1 and with pretty low to realistic expectations of them beating that by, say, 8 to 10%, then I think we'll all be feeling better soon enough when they report ~56B in January! I did some numbers last night, and a 10% beat on revenues, and GM of 39% (vs. 36% guidance), will result in earnings of about $15.56, which is 12% growth YOY. Not quite the 50% we've been used to.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 16:59:29 GMT -8
Ahem.
Normalize, please. Apples to apples with those fiscal quarters. I think people should take the extra step to put things in proper perspective. WS will too, though maybe to a lesser degree.
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
|
Post by Ted on Nov 10, 2012 17:11:19 GMT -8
So, it would be about 21% up YOY after normalizing with a 10% beat, yes?
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Nov 10, 2012 17:17:23 GMT -8
Glad to have you back, Phoebes. We missed you. +100 Ah fellas ... you warm a girl's heart. In all seriousness, not having any of my AAPL devices powered and functional was like going through some awful detoxification in some parallel universe. Although I wasn't able to secure warp speed, it felt great to be able to power up and beam myself on Board again!
|
|
jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
|
Post by jz on Nov 10, 2012 17:38:06 GMT -8
hi all, what a week. Don't post very often but I thought this article in my local paper was interesting. For those upset that Apple came out with an upgraded iPad when the previous one was just getting settled, the market for reselling ipads has turned to be quite lucrative and allows those who just bought to recoup a good chunk of their purchase and use it to upgrade to the latest. Competitor products apparently do not share in that resale value. Just thought I'd share. www.siliconvalley.com/ci_21967548/resale-market-apple-ipad-boomingFingers crossed for an up week, etc. JB Yes, good point. I went from iPad 2 to the next iteration for about $50, IIRC. WHO THINKS THAT AT&T SUBSIDIZING THE IPAD MINI UNDERMINES THE FRAUDSTERS WHO LAST QUARTER held AAPL back with concocted assertions THAT THE CARRIERS WOULD NO LONGER BE subsidizing iPhone. Total BS in light of news that the subsidizing is expanding, not contracting. AT&T getting first mover advantage with iPad as they did with iPhone. Im sure the iDevice Subsidy Model is alive and well.... Other carriers will be close behind unless ATT paid dearly for some exclusivity time.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 10, 2012 17:45:59 GMT -8
So, it would be about 21% up YOY after normalizing with a 10% beat, yes? Yes. To account for the 14 week quarter last year, vs. this year's 13 week quarter. Pro-rating my $15.56 for the 14/13 would give 16.76, which represents a 21% growth YOY. $15.56 would also represent a 16% beat of analysts' estimates, which is okay. Increasing GM to 41% (@ 10% beat on Revs) would get the ePS to $16.78, which is a 25% beat of Analysts' estimate, which puts you into April '12 territory.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 17:52:02 GMT -8
I'm not at $15 EPS just yet. Then again my baseline (which trends conservative and tries to make better sense of Oppenheimer's guidance) calculated out to a little over 6% beat of guidance and normalized YOY revs growth of 30% (and normalized YOY EPS growth of about 12%) assuming a 13-week fiscal quarter for Q1 '12 would've been 92% of the actual result. I'm starting from revs of $55.32B and $14.37 EPS.
The giant unknown IMHO will be iPad "ASP". I have that at $433 right now, which should leave some room for upside surprise.
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on Nov 10, 2012 17:56:15 GMT -8
So, it would be about 21% up YOY after normalizing with a 10% beat, yes? Yes. To account for the 14 week quarter last year, vs. this year's 13 week quarter. Pro-rating my $15.56 for the 14/13 would give 16.76, which represents a 21% growth YOY. $15.56 would also represent a 16% beat of analysts' estimates, which is okay. Increasing GM to 41% (@ 10% beat on Revs) would get the ePS to $16.78, which is a 25% beat of Analysts' estimate, which puts you into April '12 territory. I think it more likely a bigger beat on revenue, but less on GM. Either way, I'm hopeful they have guided very conservative. I wonder what their internal numbers are? Did Greg really leave us?
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on Nov 10, 2012 18:00:43 GMT -8
I'm not at $15 EPS just yet. Then again my baseline (which trends conservative and tries to make better sense of Oppenheimer's guidance) calculated out to a little over 6% beat of guidance and normalized YOY revs growth of 30% (and normalized YOY EPS growth of about 12%) assuming a 13-week fiscal quarter for Q1 '12 would've been 92% of the actual result. I'm starting from revs of $55.32B and $14.37 EPS. The giant unknown IMHO will be iPad "ASP". I have that at $433 right now, which should leave some room for upside surprise. I expect iPad Mini demand to pick up big time around black Friday and start selling out.
|
|
jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
|
Post by jz on Nov 10, 2012 18:03:00 GMT -8
Surface launched just as iPad mini debuted. This is a very, very tough market for Microsoft to be in right now. It's not the value player, not even close, when even overpriced Apple iPads start at $329. And with Apple and Android vendors both in the way, it's gonna take time for Surface to make inroads. Do you think more or less time than it took for Zune? I say a similar result in a shorter timeframe and with more costly ramifications. I've said it before, tablets are Afghanistan, baby... The graveyard of once-great empires...
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 18:03:55 GMT -8
So very skeptical of "internal numbers". Apple may have some form of them as goals for themselves - but for obvious reasons, NO ONE ELSE COULD POSSIBLY KNOW WHAT THEY ARE. The best guesses could be driven by guidance and whatever intelligence analysts can gather from the supply chain, teardowns, the occasional public speaking engagement or analyst meeting at Apple HQ, etc. Gregg said ISM, I say multiple. He said internal numbers, I say whisper number. It's really all the same thing to me. Friendly disagreement, but an "agree to disagree" disagreement. I might just get him to re-register with this post. Heheh.
|
|
|
Post by rosie on Nov 10, 2012 18:06:05 GMT -8
Hello world - after 13 days I finally have cable and internet back! The only news I was getting was a newspaper or a radio - and WHAT TIMING with AAPL price action through it all! Hope everyone is doing well...so nice to be fully functional. Have lots of reading to catch up on. Welcome back Phoebes!!! what happened to your beach house?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Nov 10, 2012 18:07:30 GMT -8
Not gonna call Surface the next Kin. Though IMHO, it has to compete mostly with Android for market viability. Microsoft obviously has more than enough resources to try to get Surface accepted as a tablet alternative for as long as they'd like.
|
|
|
Post by nkmho on Nov 10, 2012 18:09:13 GMT -8
Currently at the mall right now, so I checked out both the iPad Mini and MS Surface. The Mini is nice, but the non-retina display bugs me now, after having been spoiled by the iPad 3 and iPhone 5. The Surface sucked IMHO. The kickstand is in a non-adjustable position, and typing on the keyboard was awful. The lack of feedback from the keys led to non-presses or double presses. Not enjoyable at all.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 18:11:35 GMT -8
I'm not at $15 EPS just yet. Then again my baseline (which trends conservative and tries to make better sense of Oppenheimer's guidance) calculated out to a little over 6% beat of guidance and normalized YOY revs growth of 30% (and normalized YOY EPS growth of about 12%) assuming a 13-week fiscal quarter for Q1 '12 would've been 92% of the actual result. I'm starting from revs of $55.32B and $14.37 EPS. The giant unknown IMHO will be iPad "ASP". I have that at $433 right now, which should leave some room for upside surprise. I expect iPad Mini demand to pick up big time around black Friday and start selling out. I do not believe Apple will sell out of any devices. (ex:phone)
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2012 18:18:37 GMT -8
Good news everyone! Apple & HTC settle all patent litigation I presume this is in apples advantage and includes an ongoing royalty per phone. www.macrumors.com/2012/11/10/apple-and-htc-settle-patent-dispute/"HTC is pleased to have resolved its dispute with Apple, so HTC can focus on innovation instead of litigation" said Peter Chou, CEO of HTC. "We are glad to have reached a settlement with HTC" said Tim Cook, CEO of Apple. "We will continue to stay laser focused on product innovation."
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Nov 10, 2012 18:20:17 GMT -8
Currently at the mall right now, so I checked out both the iPad Mini and MS Surface. The Mini is nice, but the non-retina display bugs me now, after having been spoiled by the iPad 3 and iPhone 5. The Surface sucked IMHO. The kickstand is in a non-adjustable position, and typing on the keyboard was awful. The lack of feedback from the keys led to non-presses or double presses. Not enjoyable at all. I have not seen the Surface in person, but it sure looks thicker than the ipad yet is speced as the same thickness. Anyone?
|
|
benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
|
Post by benoir on Nov 10, 2012 18:23:40 GMT -8
Saw a Surface billboard last night. Does MS use the same ad agency as Apple uses..... The composition and graphic language used is the same as for iPad. When people see a surface billboard they will associate it with iPad. Not sure if this will be a good thing or bad thing. Either surface will be associated with the positive attributes of iPad or the iPad brand will be reinforced. Any marketing gurus out there with an opinion?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2012 18:23:57 GMT -8
To add to the surface hating - apparently the windows 8 OS on the entry level 32GB model takes up 16GB of storage - so it's more comparable feature wise to the $399 16gb iPad 2 than the 32GB iPad.
|
|