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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2012 18:20:43 GMT -8
I had no idea Cisco even had a decent quarter. But what's good for tech that doesn't seem bad for AAPL is good enough for me! That plus 980,603 traded right at or after the bell today...my guess is tax related but may have been over-hanging the market a bit and suppressing stock price. Not sure.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 13, 2012 18:24:54 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 13, 2012 18:26:32 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 13, 2012 18:32:50 GMT -8
Hey Mark. I wasn't in any celebratory mood to golf in LV. Plus, I don't golf. ;D Thanks Phoebes. Keep giving Kaminsky the evil eye for me k? Yeah, when I got out there Friday I was pretty dazed. I had not told Tammy how much I had lost until we had gotten out there. I had to tell her because she is like a kid in a candy store once we hit the strip. Still wish you could have hung around for a few drinks and dinner. Enjoyed meeting your twin. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 13, 2012 18:33:45 GMT -8
The world isn't big enough to contain two Mercels...
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 13, 2012 18:35:20 GMT -8
Mercel, you are a welcome sight for sore eyes!! Great charts, as always!
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 13, 2012 18:37:43 GMT -8
Hmmmmmm, getting the family together maybe? INTC would be a welcome partner in mobile chips.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 13, 2012 18:39:18 GMT -8
I have a GM baseline at 40% myself (400 basis point beat). The best part, either Oppenheimer is sandbagging GM like hell (tons of iPhones will be sold) or guidance will actually be somewhat close to actual because iPad mini will sell something like 25M units. Either way works fine.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 13, 2012 18:40:14 GMT -8
Hmmmmmm, getting the family together maybe? INTC would be a welcome partner in mobile chips. Apple, Hon Hai/Foxconn, Intel AND Qualcomm all having a stake in Sharp would be very interesting, since Intel and Qualcomm are certified Apple frenemies.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 18:52:24 GMT -8
Here's another chart for gross margin: Guided (blue) and Actual (red). I think Apple is sandbagging GM this holiday quarter, FQ1 2013. I'm hopeful for 40.5, which would STILL be 420 basis points lower than FQ1 2012. Dial in 55M iPhones and it will be easier to beat Apple's sandbag. Great Chart, thanks for sharing! (and welcome!) I wonder if the appropriate quarter to compare margins to would be Q12011, which was the first big selling quarter for the new iPhone 4 form factor. Apple beat its guidance by 2.5% on that occasion. Q12012 was the iphone 4S launch - which shouldn't be compared to the iPhone 5, as the iphone 4S was the same form factor as the 4 - the 4S required very little in the way of new production tooling and there was no learning curves getting production ramped fast. Interestingly Apple has guided the same for Q12013 as it did for Q12011. (36%)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 18:54:55 GMT -8
A consortium forming to counter Samsung?
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Post by prazan on Nov 13, 2012 19:02:34 GMT -8
You can find an article about Cooperman in the Oct. 8 issue of the New Yorker. Beware though: it's a political article about his political donations. I love Best in Show. Brilliant faux-documentary. I spent a little time with Fred Willard in a bookstore once upon a time. He's not like the characters he plays, at least not when talking to someone he just met, which is a good thing. His "do you know they eat those in Korea" routine makes me laugh every time I watch it.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 13, 2012 19:25:46 GMT -8
HAH! I KNEW the person I "love to hate" (/inside "joke"? ;D) would register here sometime! Good to have you back, and I say this with 100% sincerity! (Was that you as Marcellus at the beginning, btw?) Yeah. For some historical perspective, it's Mav on the right and yours truly on the left. Mercel, You old dog! Good to see you. I had a Ballmer sighting last week and thought of you...and, no, I don't look like him....
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 13, 2012 19:27:17 GMT -8
By the way.....the brand new Bloomberg iPad app is very good....a better tool than the CNBC app in my opinion.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 19:36:54 GMT -8
Its been linked to already, but here is a link to a MUST READ post by Horace about Apple share price declines: www.asymco.com/2012/11/12/a-dramatic-reading/Money quote: "At least since the iPhone launched, every dramatic drop in share price was followed by a surge in earnings growth. One could even say the worse the bear, the better the growth."
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Post by newton on Nov 13, 2012 19:45:45 GMT -8
I know Apple has very good prospects for earnings going forward. Yet I 'm not feeling very good about the stock right now. This sucks.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 13, 2012 19:46:54 GMT -8
Dediu's dramatic reading was intentionally tongue-in-cheek in places. Cute but not intended to be authoritative I think, particularly the good news is bad news and vice versa part.
Remember the iPhone 5 "rumor"-influenced rally? That's all kinds of good (rumor) news.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 13, 2012 19:52:33 GMT -8
QE3 launches this week, so that would make sense...currency deflation and all. I thought QE3 started in September. You are right -- I am confusing myself! QE3 = $40B monthly purchase of mortgage bonds. Now for some reason (not sure if I read this or dreamed it), I thought that hit this week...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 19:56:30 GMT -8
Hey Mark. I wasn't in any celebratory mood to golf in LV. Plus, I don't golf. ;D Thanks Phoebes. Keep giving Kaminsky the evil eye for me k? Yeah, when I got out there Friday I was pretty dazed. I had not told Tammy how much I had lost until we had gotten out there. I had to tell her because she is like a kid in a candy store once we hit the strip. Still wish you could have hung around for a few drinks and dinner. Enjoyed meeting your twin. ;D I initially thought you were going to be there before I left. Oh well, there's always the $800 party to look forward to next month that Ovi is predicting (or was it $1000?).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 19:58:06 GMT -8
Yeah. For some historical perspective, it's Mav on the right and yours truly on the left. Mercel, You old dog! Good to see you. I had a Ballmer sighting last week and thought of you...and, no, I don't look like him.... Old dog? You must have me confused with someone else. And funny thing is, I ran into Ballmer recently and called him RedShirt. He looked at me funny.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 19:59:05 GMT -8
Mercel, you are a welcome sight for sore eyes!! Great charts, as always! YW. Can I post nekkid pics of Jill Kelly here?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 19:59:50 GMT -8
Mercel, you are a welcome sight for sore eyes!! Great charts, as always! TY and YW. Can I post nekkid pics of Jill Kelly here?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 13, 2012 20:01:17 GMT -8
Pain range, now 545-549.99, Stk Calls Puts 530 1,490 9,985 535 2,286 8,625 540 5,272 10,859 545 6,262 8,824 550 13,828 12,335 555 8,779 7,109 560 14,138 7,316 565 9,782 5,225 Sup, Mercel?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 20:03:47 GMT -8
Are there any AMZN haters here? I thought so. Here's some more hate motivation. The key metrics in Green are Good. Red is Bad. We know the rest of the story... Attachments:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 20:08:12 GMT -8
Pain range, now 545-549.99, Stk Calls Puts 530 1,490 9,985 535 2,286 8,625 540 5,272 10,859 545 6,262 8,824 550 13,828 12,335 555 8,779 7,109 560 14,138 7,316 565 9,782 5,225 Sup, Mercel? JD, I'm glad to see you're still using the best TA out there. Travis tweeted earlier today that he's predicting AAPL at $630 in Jan. If the option writers bought back the calls they raped us with in September for pennies on the dollar, then the EO can make MORE money by running AAPL into Jan earnings. That call wall at $650 in Jan. means less if the option writers have locked in their gains Oct - Nov. Buying should return if it plays out this way. And past $630 too.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 13, 2012 20:17:55 GMT -8
Gee, Mercel It's like you never left.... I think the iPhone/ iPad mini juggernaut is going to be recognized sooner rather than later. Everyone wants the mini.....I'm upping estimates for both product lines now that iPhone backlogs are easing. 59 billion in revs.....GM at 38.5 ( product mix and start up costs) But next quarter......wow
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Post by rosie on Nov 13, 2012 20:18:05 GMT -8
Its been linked to already, but here is a link to a MUST READ post by Horace about Apple share price declines: www.asymco.com/2012/11/12/a-dramatic-reading/Money quote: "At least since the iPhone launched, every dramatic drop in share price was followed by a surge in earnings growth. One could even say the worse the bear, the better the growth." thanx so much for posting this link. I feel better having read it . Now I'm going to read it again.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 20:47:45 GMT -8
Gee, Mercel It's like you never left.... I think the iPhone/ iPad mini juggernaut is going to be recognized sooner rather than later. Everyone wants the mini.....I'm upping estimates for both product lines now that iPhone backlogs are easing. 59 billion in revs.....GM at 38.5 ( product mix and start up costs) But next quarter......wow Do u think Apple has really lost 620 basis points in GM for the holiday quarter from just a year ago? I don't. Oppie likely borrowed some extra sandbags from Sandy when he guided 36.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 13, 2012 20:57:01 GMT -8
Gee, Mercel It's like you never left.... I think the iPhone/ iPad mini juggernaut is going to be recognized sooner rather than later. Everyone wants the mini.....I'm upping estimates for both product lines now that iPhone backlogs are easing. 59 billion in revs.....GM at 38.5 ( product mix and start up costs) But next quarter......wow Do u think Apple has really lost 620 basis points in GM for the holiday quarter from just a year ago? I don't. Oppie likely borrowed some extra sandbags from Sandy when he guided 36. My thinking is a tougher mix on iPad minis, iPhone 5 with attendant start up costs..... You were always good with GM...so what's the number?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2012 21:07:01 GMT -8
Do u think Apple has really lost 620 basis points in GM for the holiday quarter from just a year ago? I don't. Oppie likely borrowed some extra sandbags from Sandy when he guided 36. My thinking is a tougher mix on iPad minis, iPhone 5 with attendant start up costs..... You were always good with GM...so what's the number? I've dropped my GM in three product categories. Also, I'm estimating 55M iPhones and still tipping over 40%. Oppie lowballed both sales and GM and the added iPhones missing in the sales # will push us over the top. Not sure if Sammy's recent blackmail on the processors was news before or after the earnings call. Nonetheless, I think it's worth around .5% overall to GM if the impact is felt FQ1 13. FWIW. Futures are green.
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