Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 14, 2012 14:35:10 GMT -8
Boat, overbooked FedEx/UPS cargo jet, same thing
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Post by appledoc on Nov 14, 2012 14:37:37 GMT -8
Everyone trimmed their positions. I'm shocked! I will continue to patiently ride this out. I have a little bit of cash that I still want to put to use. As bad as it sounds, I would still like to see a successful test of 522. That way we can say we found support SOMEWHERE. Because we sure haven't found any along this path.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 14:39:35 GMT -8
Just like to point out that we are now half way through the December Quarter - still no competition in sight for the iPad, and still heavy demand outstripping improving supply for the iPhone 5.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 14, 2012 14:41:07 GMT -8
For now, it's low 530s.
Futures don't give any clue where we'll end up lately. They were "opposite" indicators the last two days IIRC.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Nov 14, 2012 14:47:19 GMT -8
A brief diversion from the still-dreary market news... Took our 2011 iMac in for the Seagate recall yesterday, Cambridgeside Galleria store, noon appointment. Email said expect 5-7 days, Genius said 4-5. 9:48 PM email arrived: your product is ready for pickup. Grabbed it at 10 AM today, restored Time Machine backup, back in business now. ;D OTOH... Our son upgraded his 4S to iOS6 (assume really 6.1) yesterday and it bricked his phone. Same store wanted $160 to fix it. Haven't spoken him directly to get full details, but seemed like an unusually non-helpful response. Anyone else heard of similar upgrade problems?
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 14, 2012 14:47:56 GMT -8
Everyone trimmed their positions. I'm shocked! I will continue to patiently ride this out. I have a little bit of cash that I still want to put to use. As bad as it sounds, I would still like to see a successful test of 522. That way we can say we found support SOMEWHERE. Because we sure haven't found any along this path. After further inquiry I found an article that was printed in the first week of October where Einhorn asserted his long thesis on AAPL and it still remains his largest position even after the September sales. It seems that as it got to $700 it was probably a disproportionate part of his portfolio...All this said, he is a good trader - lightened up at the top. It just looks to me like it was a trading type call versus an "I lost faith in the company and the story" sale.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 14, 2012 14:57:16 GMT -8
He had a very sizable gain, taking shares off was his job. Unlike us, he does not fall in love with a stock. I just did not know my stock was going to file for divorce from me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 15:10:54 GMT -8
This ANTI-FUD seems to have been overlooked today, but spells good news for margins:
"The Street now reports on an article [Google translation] from Korean newspaper The Hankyoreh citing a Samsung executive as saying that the rumors of a price hike are untrue. After reports earlier in the week that the South Korean technology giant was raising application processor (AP) prices on Apple by as much as 20%, a Samsung Electronics official denied the reports to The Hankyoreh, a Seoul-based newspaper.
The unnamed official noted that prices are set at the beginning of the year and aren't changed easily."
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Post by lance on Nov 14, 2012 15:24:34 GMT -8
AAPL appears to be close to entering the trading channel that AAPL traded in from late 2008 to January 2012. AAPL in January 2012 went on a near parabolic rise to account for the big beat on EPS in 2012 Q1. When AAPL went above 450 it rose out of the channel and has been trading above that channel since that point. If you extrapolate the channel it appears AAPL is now back to the top of that channel in the 530's. The bottom of the channel looks to be in the zone of 480's. AAPL is definitely at an inflection point where if we have 1 more week of this crap high 400's are definitely in play and AAPL will be back in the middle of this rising channel. But if it bounces soon it may lead to AAPL bouncing off the top of the channel. No one knows but AAPL is taking its good A$$ time showing strength. Why is the largest stock on the stock market trading like a high beta stock like ZAGG haha.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 14, 2012 15:27:23 GMT -8
Like I was saying. Prepaid supply contracts. Need for solid corroborating sources before we believe in deviations from what these deals are meant for - securing a production supply at a certain price.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 14, 2012 15:32:11 GMT -8
More FUD, this time...a delayed release for the new iMac's. All very tiresome.
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Post by tradermac on Nov 14, 2012 15:40:06 GMT -8
The past 2 months has been the most grueling experience since the 2008 meltdown for me. I've lost more these past 2 months than back in 2008. I had 300k at the highs and now it's down to 15k. A lot of shuda wuda cudas is swirling in my mind right now. There is nothing I can do, it's done.
My question for the board, at this point, with peanuts left in my account, is it better to put that 15k into some straight options, maybe an April 600 or should I get a spread like April 640/650. Any other suggestions would be welcome. This whole ordeal is putting a huge mental strain on me and I'm neglecting the family because of it. With the holidays coming up, I don't want to ruin this special time for the kids stressing over the markets. I want to just put on a position and forget it, hopefully after jan earnings, some sanity will come back.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 14, 2012 15:50:37 GMT -8
The past 2 months has been the most grueling experience since the 2008 meltdown for me. I've lost more these past 2 months than back in 2008. I had 300k at the highs and now it's down to 15k. A lot of shuda wuda cudas is swirling in my mind right now. There is nothing I can do, it's done. My question for the board, at this point, with peanuts left in my account, is it better to put that 15k into some straight options, maybe an April 600 or should I get a spread like April 640/650. Any other suggestions would be welcome. This whole ordeal is putting a huge mental strain on me and I'm neglecting the family because of it. With the holidays coming up, I don't want to ruin this special time for the kids stressing over the markets. I want to just put on a position and forget it, hopefully after jan earnings, some sanity will come back. I feel you pain, trader. I have Aprils and a few Junes; didn't buy on the way down, but instead chose to try hedging but not nearly enough. I need AAPL to come back, and right now, halfway back would be good enough for me, say 620-630. I think we should see this before Christmas, once we get some positives on fiscal cliff and start going the other way in overall market.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 14, 2012 15:53:41 GMT -8
Everyone trimmed their positions. I'm shocked! That's why they call it the "smart money". But they'll be back as soon as AAPL starts showing some leadership to the upside. They need the stock to go up to continue to milk it. As soon as it starts, they'll be back, and you will start seeing the big AAPL moves again.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 14, 2012 15:54:54 GMT -8
AAPL appears to be close to entering the trading channel that AAPL traded in from late 2008 to January 2012. AAPL in January 2012 went on a near parabolic rise to account for the big beat on EPS in 2012 Q1. When AAPL went above 450 it rose out of the channel and has been trading above that channel since that point. If you extrapolate the channel it appears AAPL is now back to the top of that channel in the 530's. The bottom of the channel looks to be in the zone of 480's. To me, this is like saying that your team (the channel) would have won the game if not for the lucky catch (blowout Q1) the other team (AAPL) made. Well, the catch was made. It happened. Q1 was a game changer and the stock adjusted accordingly. It may have went a little too far on the way up to 644, but it needed an upward correction. Going back to the old channel disregards what has happened in the past year. And yes, the future has to be accounted for. But go back a year and you would have found the same BS thrown around regarding Apple's growth being done. The future is bright. We just need the supply chain to grow enough to get there.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 16:05:54 GMT -8
The past 2 months has been the most grueling experience since the 2008 meltdown for me. I've lost more these past 2 months than back in 2008. I had 300k at the highs and now it's down to 15k. A lot of shuda wuda cudas is swirling in my mind right now. There is nothing I can do, it's done. My question for the board, at this point, with peanuts left in my account, is it better to put that 15k into some straight options, maybe an April 600 or should I get a spread like April 640/650. Any other suggestions would be welcome. This whole ordeal is putting a huge mental strain on me and I'm neglecting the family because of it. With the holidays coming up, I don't want to ruin this special time for the kids stressing over the markets. I want to just put on a position and forget it, hopefully after jan earnings, some sanity will come back. I feel for you. i guess it depends on what your goals are and time horizon. Im down 60% from high, but am confident of regaining it all and then some from the Jan 14 leaps im sitting on.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 14, 2012 16:21:33 GMT -8
A few thoughts...
1) I thought we (AAPL) were headed back up a bit this week. But the market tank just dragged us down with it, IMO. More proof that futures are irrelevant. We were +60 Dow at one point, +19 on NASDAQ.
2) Nobody I've seen has reported the actual cannibalization rate of iPad Mini on iPad: 4.8%. So, iPad Mini margins are utterly irrelevant. And probably higher than most people think anyway
29% of 16.6% = 4.8%
3) Already reported here, but Samsung reportedly denied it is hiking iOS chip prices.
4) Neither #2 or #3 will get anywhere near the press the original, erroneous FUD (Fucking Unbelievable Douchebaggery) stories garnered.
5) Go to 2
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Post by appledoc on Nov 14, 2012 16:49:10 GMT -8
Of course not JD. It's too easy for crap to get swept under the rug even just a day later (re: Denninger's garbage article yesterday on Samsung and chip costs). There's no accountability anymore.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 16:51:31 GMT -8
JD, I always considered cannibalization rate as the % of lost future sales of the full size iPad, rather than the replacement of already owned devices.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 14, 2012 16:52:53 GMT -8
And what is worse than no accountability - you get sites like Benzinga or Business Insider which just regurgitate the same incorrect articles but with an additional sensationalist twist. It really is disgusting. No fact checking - nothing - terrible.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 17:15:26 GMT -8
More FUD, this time...a delayed release for the new iMac's. All very tiresome. Apple is showing no change in availability of either the 21" and 27" model. More FUD (I like JD's new definition). Institutions are in no hurry to start buying AAPL again in light of the macro picture. When Apple starts to move north, we may need seat belts. Catalysts are few and far between now and Jan. earnings from Apple. Then again, Apple has shown in the past it can move without catalysts.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 14, 2012 17:27:50 GMT -8
And what is worse than no accountability - you get sites like Benzinga or Business Insider which just regurgitate the same incorrect articles but with an additional sensationalist twist. It really is disgusting. No fact checking - nothing - terrible. Oh, that reminds me of something I meant to include in my previous post: Are we really still linking to and referencing Business Insider articles? JD, I always considered cannibalization rate as the % of lost future sales of the full size iPad, rather than the replacement of already owned devices. Agreed, but these are the only numbers we have ATM, and after 3 iterations of the iPad, replacements (vs buying an iPad 4) are a good metric. If 50% of people said they passed up on replacing their iPad 1 or 2 with a Mini instead of an iPad 4, we might have a story. Then again, I remain unconvinced that Mini margins will be significantly different in the long run. On a related note, I think the most under-reported story of the month was that AT&T is the first carrier to subsidize iPads. Speaking of AT&T, my iPhone 4's contract ran out yesterday, and I unlocked it and walked into a T-Mobile and went with their $50/mo plan. Saved me $34/mo. Just thought I'd try their network for a while and see what's up. No tablets were in sight, but the guy did give me the spiel about how Galaxy Tabs were just as good as iPads. I gave him that "do I look like stupid Joe Sixpack to you?" look.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 14, 2012 17:40:43 GMT -8
AAPLBeat had a nice update over the weekend and yesterday. I suggest you check out their CPE and CPC charts. Hopefully his (her?) thoughts hold true because we should be bottoming out. I see a lot of resemblance between now and last fall. www.aaplbeat.com/charts/
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Post by podboy on Nov 14, 2012 17:46:44 GMT -8
I'm starting to get worried about my April 13 590-600 BCS. I think I opened the position up too soon when AAPL was at 590. Options can be a scary place when you're in a bear market. I think I am worried just because it was my first options trade.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2012 17:49:24 GMT -8
AAPLBeat had a nice update over the weekend and yesterday. I suggest you check out their CPE and CPC charts. Hopefully his (her?) thoughts hold true because we should be bottoming out. I see a lot of resemblance between now and last fall. www.aaplbeat.com/charts/My optimistic theory (I have many) is that September front-ran October this year. October was the month everyone wanted to hold except the EOs, as it turned out. Last year, November and December were a soft patch for AAPL. Perhaps December 2012 can front run January 2013? I don't think the institutions REALLY think AAPL is going to lay an egg this quarter, so the real question is timing. Just as the EOs play chicken with each other with AMZN--as in, who starts to sell--they could be playing a different game of chicken with AAPL, as in who starts to buy?
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Post by wheeles on Nov 14, 2012 17:53:52 GMT -8
And what is worse than no accountability - you get sites like Benzinga or Business Insider which just regurgitate the same incorrect articles but with an additional sensationalist twist. It really is disgusting. No fact checking - nothing - terrible. With respect, they do it to the upside too, except that most on here benefit when they do it, so nobody complains. They are equal opportunity spreaders of exaggerated claims.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 14, 2012 17:56:58 GMT -8
I'm starting to get worried about my April 13 590-600 BCS. I think I opened the position up too soon when AAPL was at 590. Options can be a scary place when you're in a bear market. I think I am worried just because it was my first options trade. Barring a catostrophic Q1, that trade is fine. You'll be able to profit from it at some point before April.
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Post by nkmho on Nov 14, 2012 18:12:51 GMT -8
The past 2 months has been the most grueling experience since the 2008 meltdown for me. I've lost more these past 2 months than back in 2008. I had 300k at the highs and now it's down to 15k. A lot of shuda wuda cudas is swirling in my mind right now. There is nothing I can do, it's done. My question for the board, at this point, with peanuts left in my account, is it better to put that 15k into some straight options, maybe an April 600 or should I get a spread like April 640/650. Any other suggestions would be welcome. This whole ordeal is putting a huge mental strain on me and I'm neglecting the family because of it. With the holidays coming up, I don't want to ruin this special time for the kids stressing over the markets. I want to just put on a position and forget it, hopefully after jan earnings, some sanity will come back. I feel for you. i guess it depends on what your goals are and time horizon. Im down 60% from high, but am confident of regaining it all and then some from the Jan 14 leaps im sitting on. I blew out most of my accounts as well, and I'm also mainly sitting on Jan 14s and Jan 15s in the meantime to ride things out.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 14, 2012 18:28:11 GMT -8
And what is worse than no accountability - you get sites like Benzinga or Business Insider which just regurgitate the same incorrect articles but with an additional sensationalist twist. It really is disgusting. No fact checking - nothing - terrible. With respect, they do it to the upside too, except that most on here benefit when they do it, so nobody complains. They are equal opportunity spreaders of exaggerated claims. Perhaps but it seems to me that the negative stories always seem to be at a much greater ratio - guess it's just my imagination
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 14, 2012 18:34:51 GMT -8
(...)My question for the board, at this point, with peanuts left in my account, is it better to put that 15k into some straight options, maybe an April 600 or should I get a spread like April 640/650. Any other suggestions would be welcome. This whole ordeal is putting a huge mental strain on me and I'm neglecting the family because of it. With the holidays coming up, I don't want to ruin this special time for the kids stressing over the markets. I want to just put on a position and forget it, hopefully after jan earnings, some sanity will come back. I am so, SO sorry to hear of your losses. All MHO: NO on the unhedged options. Down OR endless sideways will bleed them mercilessly. Spreads are stupid cheap here, and if you must, you can always unhedge some portion in a confirmed uptrend...we do not have that now...until proven otherwise, this is still falling-knife mode. That same line of reasoning, I prefer the JAN'14 spreads...if you must, you can always roll those to closer expirations in a confirmed uptrend. Meanwhile, it's far less stressful enduring drawdowns when you know you have 13 months to recover.
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