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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 17, 2012 4:13:41 GMT -8
Yesterday in the last minutes of his segment, Cramer said that what had happened these last few weeks in AAPL was the following - according to his friends on various trading desks:
The hedge funds have been the sellers along with other larger institutions. He said they came in day after day with strips of 100k shares at a time and each time they got done they would come in with waves of more. The brokerage firms seeing all these people selling, went short themselves (which is always interesting since their analysts are reiterating buy ratings to clients). All this downward pressure had the stock plummeting day after day....and when the waves of selling subsided....the brokerage firms saw this first and covered their shorts causing a V-like reversal. He said that at these prices people may think it is too cheap to sell any longer but he did say that if the stock moves higher - and there are no other positive market forces (ie fiscal cliff resolution or hopes thereof) you could see the sellers - what's left of them come out on occasion to sell any little they may have left and to hold the stock back from any meteoric-type rise.
His assessment sounds pretty truthful and his conclusion sounds much like what Mercel suggested - fits and starts for the next 6 or so weeks. Just thought it was interesting.
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Post by chasmac on Nov 17, 2012 6:06:15 GMT -8
From some windows 8 reviews To me, Win8 is like a chocolate cake with a big dog turd in the middle. I *really* want to enjoy the cake, because I know it's good. But it's impossible to avoid the poo... People want ease of use, simple. Also, a lot of the comments talk about the lack of new hardware supporting this (lack of touch screens is one issue). Another reason Apple rules, by locking up supplies at great prices. The future is very bright, you just have to look through all that shit on the windshield right now. Drive safe.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 17, 2012 7:12:38 GMT -8
While it is counterintuitive, I'm glad Apple did not come out defending the stock ( in any vocal obvious way- there may be events behind the scenes such as buy backs that will benefit all of us later) during this purging exercise of the past few weeks. If Cramer's theory is correct that inventory in the hedge funds' hands, and then the brokers, was liquid enough that it was going to market...given opportunity.....and the "rolling snowball" might have been slowed by some table pounding by TC or Oppenheimer, but not stopped and then the value of those confirming words dissipated. Better this way. It appears the fever has broken ( classic capitulation scenario) and while we may move in fits and starts over the next eight weeks, I suspect we have most of the "irrational" selling done. Hedgies got out with gains or have repositioned, margin calls for mom and pop depleted, brokerages have moved what inventory was desirable to move. Other than mom and pop, the other players locked in gains, maybe unexpectedly as to the extent, but since this was opportunity selling related to the snowball effect, they now have capital to redeploy....maybe back into Apple.
When they get done counting their lucre, the big boys will still see an Apple that, since the "Great Purge of 2012" (TM) began has only strengthened its absolute and relative positions.
1. Apple stores are jammed. The iPhone 5 and iPad mini are certified monsters. 2. And, production backlogs are easing....iPhone 5 much more available. The mini will be. 3. The sheer audacity of launching so many new products and upgrades worldwide will be revalued and recognized as sell outs of ever expanding production continue, the iPhone 5 launches in China while still being in massive demand everywhere else...etc. 4. Oppy's 52 billion in guided revenues means 55 billion is probably in the bag. Likely much more. At a GM of 38 ( doable for sure based on past sandbagging) we see 15.00 in earnings in January....and then the REAL surprise quarter occurs, which will be hinted at in guidance.
There is a lot more, of course. Windows 8 and the Surface flopping, patent resolutions, macro events, Brazil production, China Mobile....
The "Great Purge of 2012" was painful and humbling. I'm hurting like everyone else....but I can't find the fatal chinks in Apple's armor, and that underlying story is why I bought the stock in the first place. So, Ad Astra.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 17, 2012 7:21:45 GMT -8
I see China Mobile being a player for the 5S, not the 5. Adding them right now would be insignificant since it will only cause further supply/demand mismatch.
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Post by rosie on Nov 17, 2012 7:48:29 GMT -8
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Post by ccs on Nov 17, 2012 8:17:01 GMT -8
I see China Mobile being a player for the 5S, not the 5. Adding them right now would be insignificant since it will only cause further supply/demand mismatch. Totally agree. Apple can't supply enough phones now, adding XXmillion more possible customers would be better realized this summer. I'm looking for a late spring announcement, early summer rollout to help our Q3 & Q4 numbers. Speaking from my lower orifice of course.
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Post by steeler on Nov 17, 2012 8:30:45 GMT -8
I see China Mobile being a player for the 5S, not the 5. Adding them right now would be insignificant since it will only cause further supply/demand mismatch. If China Mobile and Apple can not reach a satisfying subsidy agreement, I think Apple may introduce Iphone5 in Q3 2013 at CM to: 1. Balance out demand throughout the year 2. Show CM that 2Q late to get iphone hurts CM business
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Post by appledoc on Nov 17, 2012 8:42:57 GMT -8
If any of you have a Citi cash rewards card, they're offering 5% back on Apple Store purchases through December on top of the 2% they already offer. Like you need any more enticing to buy Apple stuff this holiday season.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 17, 2012 9:16:05 GMT -8
Nkmho, love the new and improved quote box -- thank you!!
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Post by chasmac on Nov 17, 2012 9:43:39 GMT -8
Nkmho, love the new and improved quote box -- thank you!! Yep, very nice! Thanks so much. Golfed with 2 recent college grads this morning, both just purchased iPhone 5s. Eventually many in the cheap smartphone crowd will move up to quality. Lots of growth ahead.
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 17, 2012 10:33:52 GMT -8
With a couple of misses lately, I can't imagine Oppy doing anything but guiding very conservative. Could the high end be around $60B?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 11:23:13 GMT -8
Misses by WS standards. But an Apple miss? Except once? Many years ago? Oppenheimer will never, ever guide too high. Not will he give any real clue where revs and EPS should be.
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Post by seabiscuit on Nov 17, 2012 11:36:32 GMT -8
As we all know the issue is that Apple guided so low for so long that we began to take it for granted. Couple that with the fact the "independent analysts" were beating the pros too many of the retail players started to take it for granted that Apple would beat. It became a question of guessing by what percentage Apple would beat. I think that under TC Apple guidance will be much more conservative.
After two "misses" compared with analysts expectations I think they will beat the current consenus.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 11:46:43 GMT -8
Btw wheeles, all I'm saying is an "acceptable" retrace of the intraday move already happened. The better 520 holds, the less courage bears will have. I think 515 is still a level worth watching...LNKD didn't immediately recover either. With a drop this radical, it is possible AAPL could surprise a bit on a recovery. It did sell off by almost 30% after all. But I'm not overly bullish...yet. Let's take back the SMA-50 weekly first.
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Post by trespif on Nov 17, 2012 11:51:09 GMT -8
The Barron's article is great. That could be good for a big pop on Monday.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 12:04:55 GMT -8
Link?
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 17, 2012 12:11:54 GMT -8
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Post by trespif on Nov 17, 2012 12:20:29 GMT -8
subscription only, but here: online.barrons.com/home-page. it's on the cover. comparison of apple vs samsung stock; the recommendation goes to apple.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 12:25:28 GMT -8
Oh goody. Geopolitical uncertainty ALWAYS helps the market.
I _have_ tried to factor that into my trading some though. Fiscal cliff, buncha cliffs.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2012 14:09:23 GMT -8
I think this war will remain relatively contained. Hamas is no match for Israel. The wild card is what role, if any, Eqypt might play in this. Still, I don't expect it to move the markets at the current level of violence, as disturbing as it already is with the casualties.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2012 14:11:40 GMT -8
Oh goody. Geopolitical uncertainty ALWAYS helps the market. I _have_ tried to factor that into my trading some though. Fiscal cliff, buncha cliffs. I think "cliff" is overstating things. The media loves the word though. At least they're not calling it the "fiscal bomb." Which it isn't.
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Post by nagrani on Nov 17, 2012 14:20:31 GMT -8
Hilarious. From the Loop Attachments:
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 17, 2012 14:27:46 GMT -8
I think this war will remain relatively contained. Hamas is no match for Israel. The wild card is what role, if any, Eqypt might play in this. Still, I don't expect it to move the markets at the current level of violence, as disturbing as it already is with the casualties. I agree with Mercel - in addition, I don't think Egypt is ready to involve itself in anything right now - they are dealing with their own issues - it's a show of solidarity but with one eye to the US (They don't want to lose the funds they currently receive from the US.) I think it will stay somewhat contained and is a about a show of force and political posturing but let's hope there is some resolution very quickly...the pictures of the children are heart wrenching. fyi: english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/11/18/250224.html
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 14:34:57 GMT -8
Fiscal "ramp", then.
Try telling it to the media though.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 17, 2012 14:45:28 GMT -8
Fiscal "ramp", then. Try telling it to the media though. Ramp usually implies upward motion. Fiscal slide meets with my seal of approval. Feel free to use it royalty-free.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 17, 2012 14:47:30 GMT -8
I have been corrected, a little bird told me I was very wrong about Betty White, it seems that Mercel is old enough to be her father. .
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2012 14:50:23 GMT -8
I have been corrected, a little bird told me I was very wrong about Betty White, it seems that Mercel is old enough to be her father. . Placeholder for "I hate this guy" picture.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 17, 2012 15:02:28 GMT -8
Ramp usually implies upward motion. Fiscal slide meets with my seal of approval. Feel free to use it royalty-free. Eye of the beholder. Slide, ramp, drip, whatever. Semantics Saturday!
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jz
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Post by jz on Nov 17, 2012 15:28:36 GMT -8
Attachments:
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2012 15:31:41 GMT -8
Fiscal karma.
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