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Post by tuffett on Nov 17, 2012 23:40:21 GMT -8
The biggest earnings in corporate history seems pretty great to me
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Post by wheeles on Nov 18, 2012 0:30:33 GMT -8
I was having very similar thoughts while gazing at my 5 year weekly chart. Along about October '08 we hit a bottom in the low 80s, and then spiked well over 10% in one or two days. Then we traded in a range (granted a pretty big one) for four or five months. Along the way there were two or three more chances to buy at 80 before the big multi-year run up. Back then there were the cancer scares, the claims that iPhone was an over priced toy, the Zune was to kill iPod and Amazon would kill iTunes. Today it is "the law of large numbers", no innovation without SJ, profit margins eroding, Windows 8 tablets, Andorid, Samsung, and Kindle. Big Bird raises a good question. Are there still a lot of weak hands (silicon or otherwise) that are going to sell the the rallies? I don't like it, but we may very well get one or more chances to buy under 500. Of course a great 1Q might have something to say about that. But can 1Q really be great? The "strong" dollar, complete lack of iMacs, short supply of iPhone and iPad, along with ramp up costs could mean that a little over Apple's guidance is all we are going to get. There will always be news of some sort of other to explain what happened, regardless of whether that was the real reason or not. As for strong and weak hands, in a market where 95% of the trades are done by machines that may only hold the stock for very short periods of time, it's now more a case of momentum, chasing it up and chasing it down. The downside momentum doesn't suddenly stop in the same way that an oil tanker can't suddenly go into reverse. The more damage that is done to AAPL's charts, the longer it takes to turn that around. I do believe that once things do turn around we will see something akin to the ramp that occurred in the middle of 2008.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 18, 2012 1:14:18 GMT -8
The biggest earnings in corporate history seems pretty great to me +15.00 EPS
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 18, 2012 1:21:09 GMT -8
The upside momentum in AAPL from early this year sure stopped fast and rather violently. So is it only uptrends that retrace quickly?
For the record I'm not even sure 575 by end of year is in the cards. But AAPL is no NFLX, and it's the most beaten-up blue chip amongst blue chips that earn their status (INTC...not so much).
It only makes sense that a 200-point selloff will take time to "heal". But this is also a very different stock to be following...one that STILL has a lower multiple than WMT and IBM. At some point, technicals do not tell the whole story. When the smoke clears, the chart's label becomes visible again. And buyers remember this isn't just any other company's stock.
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Post by macziggy on Nov 18, 2012 1:59:21 GMT -8
The upside momentum in AAPL from early this year sure stopped fast and rather violently. So is it only uptrends that retrace quickly? For the record I'm not even sure 575 by end of year is in the cards. But AAPL is no NFLX, and it's the most beaten-up blue chip amongst blue chips that earn their status (INTC...not so much). It only makes sense that a 200-point selloff will take time to "heal". But this is also a very different stock to be following...one that STILL has a lower multiple than WMT and IBM. At some point, technicals do not tell the whole story. When the smoke clears, the chart's label becomes visible again. And buyers remember this isn't just any other company's stock. I've been looking at 2008 as well, having lived through that period as an AAPL shareholder. Back in 2008, at the election, everyone was certain that the stock would reverse and drive up to 200 again once the "uncertainty" of who would be elected president was resolved, but it did the opposite, much like this past Nov 6. The stock dove from 111 to 79 and stayed under 100 for most of the next 4 months. And, it could happen once again that AAPL stays rangebound for some time. However, things are really different now. I think Tim Cook will support the stock much more than Steve Jobs ever did. And, Apple is much, much stronger today than it was in 2008. So, this range we are in now may not hold. This week will tell. The overall market will have a lot of influence. But, there is also QE3, which was not invented in 2008. I don't expect a fast climb--"slingshot"--back to 705 soon, but I can see the stock comfortably in the low 600s for a good while. And, if January earnings are substantial, that will be enough to start the move higher. Tonight, someone bought my iPad 3 16G WiFi on Ebay for $425. Think of that. For another $75, that person could have bought a new iPad 4, but they bought mine instead. These things are HOT. This tells you how badly people are willing to go to get Apple stuff. I was truly amazed.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2012 2:31:25 GMT -8
I played with an iPad mini yesterday for about 10 minutes - I'm definitely getting one for my wife for Xmas, and am pondering whether or not to get one for myself. It felt so much more comfortable for reading compared to my iPad 3. The screen was far better than my old iPad 1.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 18, 2012 3:13:44 GMT -8
I played with an iPad mini yesterday for about 10 minutes - I'm definitely getting one for my wife for Xmas, and am pondering whether or not to get one for myself. It felt so much more comfortable for reading compared to my iPad 3. The screen was far better than my old iPad 1. When I read this this morning it reminded me how my husband used to buy my son when he was little all the toys HE (my husband) really wanted for Christmas. Then he would spend hours playing with my son's toys. So what else will your wife get for Christmas? I can only imagine! ;D
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 18, 2012 3:28:15 GMT -8
In New York there is a lot of press about the New York Jets - it's filled with controversy. First we have Rex Reed - a colorful character of a coach...and then the whole Tebow trade...just to stir the pot even further. Every week it's something -- negativity all over the papers and headlines. They are 3-6 and as Reed said, "We are desperate for a win." Truth is - if they were winning - that would be a quick way to make all those headlines just disappear. It's the fix. The key here is THAT is what changes things....the win. That's what AAPL needs right now: an incredible quarter and even more positively astounding guidance. It needs to silence the mouths of the naysayers or perhaps at a minimum - discredit them from here to kingdom come (it's Sunday...needed to throw that in). There will always be someone out there saying something negative but AAPL can't just put a finger in the dyke here - they need to build a sea wall to stop these waves of selling and negativity and calm the waters...and they can do just that by posting some fabulous numbers. I really think....the fix is in.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 18, 2012 3:35:03 GMT -8
Well Phoebes, your team is now number 1. (I think I am going to puke ;D) I think ND will beat USC next week and have a date with Bama or Georgia. Hey we need to give 2 other football shout outs. Rutgers won yesterday too - they are having an incredible season - only one loss this year. My friend's son is going to be their QB next year so I'm rooting for them as well. And of course - THE GAME was played yesterday for the 129th time - Harvard vs. Yale - and Harvard won for the SIXTH straight time...nice....34-24!
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Post by appledoc on Nov 18, 2012 4:49:16 GMT -8
Ya don't do these kinda incentives if tablet sales are good. Samsung has been doing this for a while. BOGO/incentive all you want, it's not Apple's game (at least since Back-to-School turned into an App Store gift card program). Back to school program and the education discount was what prompted me to buy my MBP four years ago. I had a few iPods at the time, but was actually very anti-Apple Bought my MBP and you know what happened after that. Now I'm gifting mini's (which are so tempting to crack open as they sit in my room waiting to be played with).
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 18, 2012 5:56:16 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 18, 2012 6:46:26 GMT -8
The biggest earnings in corporate history seems pretty great to me +15.00 EPS And that is a good number, except that it is only a dollar above last years Qtr. Apple is being held to the 14 week qtr. Unfair yes, but not surprising. What has happened to AAPL is the lowering of the analyst projections for Q1. They have been lowered from 15 EPS to 13 EPS. That is very significant. With WS factoring in an EPS contraction it will be hard for AAPL to go to climb. That translates to WS expecting ttm to drop to 43 from the 44 we are at now. Personally, I think $15 EPS is fair to expect with a top of $16 EPS.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 18, 2012 6:51:51 GMT -8
Tonight, someone bought my iPad 3 16G WiFi on Ebay for $425. Think of that. For another $75, that person could have bought a new iPad 4, but they bought mine instead. These things are HOT. This tells you how badly people are willing to go to get Apple stuff. I was truly amazed. Don't forget sales tax. Depending on the state it could amount to $50 + the $75. Personally, it would have to be scratch free for me to pay that much.
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 18, 2012 7:27:59 GMT -8
In New York there is a lot of press about the New York Jets - it's filled with controversy. First we have Rex Reed - ... Rex Reed? Really Isn't he a film reviewer? ;D Jet fan for 30+ years. Long, low, angry years filled with frustration and gloom.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 18, 2012 7:36:12 GMT -8
In New York there is a lot of press about the New York Jets - it's filled with controversy. First we have Rex Reed - ... Rex Reed? Really Isn't he a film reviewer? ;D Jet fan for 30+ years. Long, low, angry years filled with frustration and gloom. Living in Seattle, and having attended the Seahawks- Jets game a week ago, I find myself channeling Bill Clinton: I feel your pain...
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Post by Xphilos on Nov 18, 2012 7:45:39 GMT -8
And that is a good number, except that it is only a dollar above last years Qtr. Apple is being held to the 14 week qtr. Unfair yes, but not surprising. What has happened to AAPL is the lowering of the analyst projections for Q1. They have been lowered from 15 EPS to 13 EPS. That is very significant. With WS factoring in an EPS contraction it will be hard for AAPL to go to climb. That translates to WS expecting ttm to drop to 43 from the 44 we are at now. Personally, I think $15 EPS is fair to expect with a top of $16 EPS. $15 would be a year-over-year increase in EPS of 8%. I know 15 makes sense in a lot of ways, but I just can't wrap my head around such a small increase. Even the earnings miss in July of $9.32 was a 20% increase yoy.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 18, 2012 8:06:56 GMT -8
And that is a good number, except that it is only a dollar above last years Qtr. Apple is being held to the 14 week qtr. Unfair yes, but not surprising. What has happened to AAPL is the lowering of the analyst projections for Q1. They have been lowered from 15 EPS to 13 EPS. That is very significant. With WS factoring in an EPS contraction it will be hard for AAPL to go to climb. That translates to WS expecting ttm to drop to 43 from the 44 we are at now. Personally, I think $15 EPS is fair to expect with a top of $16 EPS. $15 would be a year-over-year increase in EPS of 8%. I know 15 makes sense in a lot of ways, but I just can't wrap my head around such a small increase. Even the earnings miss in July of $9.32 was a 20% increase yoy. If we can justify a GM of 40 %, iPhone sales over 50 M, and a bunch of other numbers, then I can start to think about $ 15 EPS. Build from the bottom up with unit sales please, not percentage increases. My set of Q1 spreadsheets varies from $ 13.9 to $ 16. The $ 16 is what I call -- smoking on all cylinders. I can't see that happening.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 18, 2012 8:37:31 GMT -8
And that is a good number, except that it is only a dollar above last years Qtr. Apple is being held to the 14 week qtr. Unfair yes, but not surprising. What has happened to AAPL is the lowering of the analyst projections for Q1. They have been lowered from 15 EPS to 13 EPS. That is very significant. With WS factoring in an EPS contraction it will be hard for AAPL to go to climb. That translates to WS expecting ttm to drop to 43 from the 44 we are at now. Personally, I think $15 EPS is fair to expect with a top of $16 EPS. $15 would be a year-over-year increase in EPS of 8%. I know 15 makes sense in a lot of ways, but I just can't wrap my head around such a small increase. Even the earnings miss in July of $9.32 was a 20% increase yoy. You are comparing a 14 week to a 13 week qtr. if you back out 1/14 from last year you are at $13 EPS. In that context it would be a $2 increase which would equate to 15%. The problem is ttm, will the qtr be additive? I say yes. Last years Q1 messed everything up, I fault Apple for that, they put way more into the qtr than was needed. They could have banked a $1 into Q2 and the stock still would have moved up significantly.
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Post by roni on Nov 18, 2012 8:43:07 GMT -8
$15 would be a year-over-year increase in EPS of 8%. I know 15 makes sense in a lot of ways, but I just can't wrap my head around such a small increase. Even the earnings miss in July of $9.32 was a 20% increase yoy. If we can justify a GM of 40 %, iPhone sales over 50 M, and a bunch of other numbers, then I can start to think about $ 15 EPS. Build from the bottom up with unit sales please, not percentage increases. My set of Q1 spreadsheets varies from $ 13.9 to $ 16. The $ 16 is what I call -- smoking on all cylinders. I can't see that happening. Close to $15 with 49.5 million iPhones, 38.5% GM and a bunch of other numbers, but it is rough at this point.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 18, 2012 8:45:12 GMT -8
$15 would be a year-over-year increase in EPS of 8%. I know 15 makes sense in a lot of ways, but I just can't wrap my head around such a small increase. Even the earnings miss in July of $9.32 was a 20% increase yoy. If we can justify a GM of 40 %, iPhone sales over 50 M, and a bunch of other numbers, then I can start to think about $ 15 EPS. Build from the bottom up with unit sales please, not percentage increases. My set of Q1 spreadsheets varies from $ 13.9 to $ 16. The $ 16 is what I call -- smoking on all cylinders. I can't see that happening. CL4, don't forget about the 380 million for OI&E that PO guided. That means 400. I am with you on the 16, that would be the top and a huge cash stockpile.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2012 9:10:24 GMT -8
$16+ EPS is very achievable
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Nov 18, 2012 9:33:44 GMT -8
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Post by osx10 on Nov 18, 2012 10:12:26 GMT -8
With much of the news cycle to be focusing on Black Friday related content, it will be interesting to see what kind of play Apple stores get.
Need a couple of the new Touches for teenagers on my list, but likely will hit the Best Buy deal that has them Friday for $294 with a rebate that is a $50 gift card (that I'll re-gift as I F'ing hate Best Buy).
If Apple stores are as busy as they normally are, we could see a momentum shift in media spin.
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mark
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Post by mark on Nov 18, 2012 10:12:37 GMT -8
Oh hey! That reminds me! No NASDAQ rebalancing concerns for now! so hard to find humor in the painAnd the dividend yield is higher. It just keeps getting better. I refuse to think negatively while I endure this Come Jan 1st, post-tax, the dividend yield will be a LOT worse. In fact, so much so that I would prefer no dividend at all and instead receive it in capital gains later on when I sell.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 18, 2012 10:41:07 GMT -8
Wow - the fact that I could even come up with the Rex Reed name in the cobwebs of my mind sssoooo dates me! Damn
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Post by roni on Nov 18, 2012 10:42:19 GMT -8
We're headed to the Apple Store so that the iWife can take a look at the new iPads
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Post by Rupert on Nov 18, 2012 11:26:58 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Nov 18, 2012 11:32:05 GMT -8
Andy Zaky's tweet: "Don't make assumptions about Apple January 2014. That would be a huge mistake."
Isn't that precisely what he did by guaranteeing $1000 by then?
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Post by Rupert on Nov 18, 2012 11:38:44 GMT -8
Andy Zaky's tweet: "Don't make assumptions about Apple January 2014. That would be a huge mistake." Isn't that precisely what he did by guaranteeing $1000 by then? His next Twitter says; "There is pages and pages of evidence for Apple $1000 that we will share in the coming months. Suspend judgement for now." So I think we have time to figure this out. Additionally I wouldn't rule out $1000 by Jan 14, still need to see additional data points.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 18, 2012 11:39:13 GMT -8
What do you want from an innovation-focused mega corporation? Transition quarters can and do happen. Logistics means this is as fast as products can be launched without SCM mayhem and possible buyer fatigue. I doubt Tim wanted to launch in this way, but it is what it is. Things have been crazy for Apple for a while. Even Apple has priorities to carefully balance. I expect next year to go more "smoothly" now that every product except for iPad 4, the MacBook Air, Mac mini ("whatever" ), and Mac Pro is on a brand new manufacturing process (Old MacBooks will remain transitional until they aren't, I guess). Btw, mark your calendars for 2014 - this will probably happen all over again with iPhone and iPad mini, I assume with even higher volumes.
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