Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 3, 2017 2:12:45 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 3, 2017 2:49:28 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on May 3, 2017 4:09:53 GMT -8
PED put out a summary for this morning:
Michael Olson, Piper Jaffray: Mixed March Quarter Overweight. Raise price target to $158 from $155.
Amit Daryanani, RBC: Hit Snooze For 90 Days Outperform, $157
Abhey Lamba, Mizuho: Lull Before the Storm? Buy. Raise price target to $160 from $150
Timothy Arcuri, Cowen: Remain Focused on the "Powder Keg." Outperform. Raise price target to $160 from $155
Rod Hall, J.P. Morgan: Weak guidance as expected, solid margins. Next stop WWDC Overweight. $165
Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley: Better than Expected Margin Guidance Clears Path to Supercycle Overweight. $161
Tim Long, BMO: Not the Best Quarter, but Setup Matters More Outperform. $160
Kulbinder Garcha, Credit Suisse: Ok results, super-cycle ahead Outperform. $170
T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord: Strong margins help bridge gap to new iPhones Buy. $165
Robert Cihra, Guggenheim: Solid Qtr Reaccelerating FY17E and We Think Into an Even Bigger FY18E Buy. $180
Aaron Rakers, Stifel: China Weakness Continues; Focus on iPhone Upgrade Cycle (Current Pause vs. Double-Digit Installed Base Growth Hold. $150
Walter Piecyk, BTIG: Increase Apple Price Target To $184 On Accelerating Growth Outperform. Raise price target to $184 from $165
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Post by rickag on May 3, 2017 4:38:11 GMT -8
PED put out a summary for this morning: Michael Olson, Piper Jaffray: Mixed March Quarter Overweight. Raise price target to $158 from $155. Amit Daryanani, RBC: Hit Snooze For 90 Days Outperform, $157 Abhey Lamba, Mizuho: Lull Before the Storm? Buy. Raise price target to $160 from $150 Timothy Arcuri, Cowen: Remain Focused on the "Powder Keg." Outperform. Raise price target to $160 from $155 Rod Hall, J.P. Morgan: Weak guidance as expected, solid margins. Next stop WWDC Overweight. $165 Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley: Better than Expected Margin Guidance Clears Path to Supercycle Overweight. $161 Tim Long, BMO: Not the Best Quarter, but Setup Matters More Outperform. $160 Kulbinder Garcha, Credit Suisse: Ok results, super-cycle ahead Outperform. $170 T. Michael Walkley, Canaccord: Strong margins help bridge gap to new iPhones Buy. $165 Robert Cihra, Guggenheim: Solid Qtr Reaccelerating FY17E and We Think Into an Even Bigger FY18E Buy. $180 Aaron Rakers, Stifel: China Weakness Continues; Focus on iPhone Upgrade Cycle (Current Pause vs. Double-Digit Installed Base Growth Hold. $150 Walter Piecyk, BTIG: Increase Apple Price Target To $184 On Accelerating Growth Outperform. Raise price target to $184 from $165 Thank you, nice summary.
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Post by dreamRaj on May 3, 2017 5:52:30 GMT -8
Thanks for PED's ratings summary, Phoebear. Most analysts seem optimistic.
Stock at 144.74 right now. Knee-jerk reaction. It's providing a lot of people a good (re)entry point.
I bought some Nov 155 calls (which I'll let go of depending on the iPhone 8 and "supercycle" fever) and some Jan 2018 150s.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 3, 2017 6:12:07 GMT -8
Katy Huberty (MS) is urging clients to buy Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) on weakness and sees a clear path to $190 per share. Huberty said the better than feared June gross margin guidance clears the path to the iPhone cycle with shares likely to trade back to prior 14-15x peak levels. The analyst is 12% ahead of the Street FY18e EPS driven by pent-up demand in China. The analyst reiterated an Overweight rating and price target of $161. The $190 bull case is based on 15x $12.70 FY18e EPS.
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Post by mrentropy on May 3, 2017 6:29:46 GMT -8
Katy Huberty (MS) is urging clients to buy Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) on weakness and sees a clear path to $190 per share. Huberty said the better than feared June gross margin guidance clears the path to the iPhone cycle with shares likely to trade back to prior 14-15x peak levels. The analyst is 12% ahead of the Street FY18e EPS driven by pent-up demand in China. The analyst reiterated an Overweight rating and price target of $161. The $190 bull case is based on 15x $12.70 FY18e EPS. Took her advice and bought about half my dividend (not much mind you) ahead of receiving it. May scale the rest in over the coming days or buy AMZN with the remainder.
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Post by sponge on May 3, 2017 6:38:40 GMT -8
Don't want to be a bear but the canary in the mine is iPhone sales. Don't let TC distract you from those numbers by focusing on other positive metrics.
The drop in the iPhone sales was much bigger then many thought including myself. Next shoe will drop when in July Apple will report an even bigger drop.
The stock is poised to correct further during this quarter from the lows of 144.28. We could play out how we moved in Nov. So by July I won't be surprised to see 150+.
Long term I agree with Morgan Stanley. We will be happy campers in 12 months.
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Post by deasys on May 3, 2017 7:56:27 GMT -8
The drop in the iPhone sales was much bigger then many thought including myself. Was it the 1% drop in iPhone units or the 1% increase in iPhone revenue that shocked you, sponge? (Also, 1% is rarely characterized as "much bigger"…help me out here…)
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Post by sponge on May 3, 2017 8:08:00 GMT -8
Tony S. asked the question about the drop. Normally we get a 20% drop from Q1. This time we got a 27% drop. That 7% is about 3.5 million iPhones.
Last time TC blamed rumors of upcoming products on the slow down in sales in the summer of 2012, the stock dropped 12% in January 2013 when the iPhone numbers were much lower then the street expected.
I am afraid the super cycle everyone is expecting won't be as strong as we would like. 9-12% gains in January would be awesome. But we won't see 40% like when the 6 came out and that was considered a super cycle.
Apple is doing great. Don't get me wrong. The future is brighter then ever.
But the stock has ridden the Trump wave and super cycle expectations. It won't take much to derail this train.
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Post by carbonate24 on May 3, 2017 8:27:14 GMT -8
Tony S. asked the question about the drop. Normally we get a 20% drop from Q1. This time we got a 27% drop. That 7% is about 3.5 million iPhones. Last time TC blamed rumors of upcoming products on the slow down in sales in the summer of 2012, the stock dropped 12% in January 2013 when the iPhone numbers were much lower then the street expected. I am afraid the super cycle everyone is expecting won't be as strong as we would like. 9-12% gains in January would be awesome. But we won't see 40% like when the 6 came out and that was considered a super cycle. Apple is doing great. Don't get me wrong. The future is brighter then ever. But the stock has ridden the Trump wave and super cycle expectations. It won't take much to derail this train. Regarding the iphone "drop", TC also said during the conference call that the greater reduction in channel inventory partially affected the iphone numbers. When only considering the "sell-through", iphone sales were up year over year. I can appreciate your 'proceed with caution' approach in the near term, and I generally agree with the points you've made. However, despite being at all time highs, I thing it is going to take a lot to derail this train. The momentum is strong. Almost 20 points ago, Nagrani had some great observations with respect to the extremely high RSI and AAPL's overbought condition. That analysis clearly pointed to a pull back, but it never happened. It probably should have, but the stock marched higher regardless. I see the same situation here. I'm not calling for AAPL to move in a straight line to $190, but I think it outperforms the market over the next 6 months and defies logic at times as it moves up.
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Post by tuffett on May 3, 2017 8:34:50 GMT -8
I agree that the iPhone 7 isn't performing particularly well against the 6s which should be an easy compare. However on a sell-through basis unit sales were actually slightly positive. Hopefully this underscores the importance of having an obviously new design every 2 years. People are superficial and Apple should know this and align their strategy accordingly.
The increase in install base is being offset by lengthening upgrade cycles and weakness in China, where the iPhone is considered boring and out of favour. New design will do wonders there.
I think it's clear to all that consistent earnings growth is going to be extremely difficult to achieve going forward. There are going to be ups and downs. Look at GOOGL's far higher and more consistent growth and it's not surprising that their multiple is so much higher. The market is forward looking, after all.
Even with no growth, $50-60B FCF generation with about 100% returned to shareholders means AAPL is still a great value stock with a good margin of long term safety.
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Post by sponge on May 3, 2017 8:36:02 GMT -8
Tony S. asked the question about the drop. Normally we get a 20% drop from Q1. This time we got a 27% drop. That 7% is about 3.5 million iPhones. Last time TC blamed rumors of upcoming products on the slow down in sales in the summer of 2012, the stock dropped 12% in January 2013 when the iPhone numbers were much lower then the street expected. I am afraid the super cycle everyone is expecting won't be as strong as we would like. 9-12% gains in January would be awesome. But we won't see 40% like when the 6 came out and that was considered a super cycle. Apple is doing great. Don't get me wrong. The future is brighter then ever. But the stock has ridden the Trump wave and super cycle expectations. It won't take much to derail this train. Regarding the iphone "drop", TC also said during the conference call that the greater reduction in channel inventory partially affected the iphone numbers. When only considering the "sell-through", iphone sales were up year over year. I can appreciate your 'proceed with caution' approach in the near term, and I generally agree with the points you've made. However, despite being at all time highs, I thing it is going to take a lot to derail this train. The momentum is strong. Almost 20 points ago, Nagrani had some great observations with respect to the extremely high RSI and AAPL's overbought condition. That analysis clearly pointed to a pull back, but it never happened. It probably should have, but the stock marched higher regardless. I see the same situation here. I'm not calling for AAPL to move in a straight line to $190, but I think it outperforms the market over the next 6 months and defies logic at times as it moves up. I agree with your observations. Want to make two quick points. Drawing down channel is the same as not selling. No need to fill channel when they can't move the product out the door. Secondly, last summer we took off when it became clear we had reached the bottom and Apple was growing iPhone sales again. Then we dropped 11% in Nov over a simple weak guidance. Expectations are getting a little too high. What I think will drop us faster then iPhone numbers is a failure to pass tax reform. I have a hard time seeing congress cooperate with Trump on this. The market will not take the news well, if that plays out in fall. I hope it passes, but I am hearing there are a ton of Republicans that are telling him to pound sand and the Democrats won't play ball until they get more goodies.
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Post by carbonate24 on May 3, 2017 8:45:44 GMT -8
I think you're right about the tax reform and its affects. I certainly hope the government gets their act together and passes something this year.
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Post by mrentropy on May 3, 2017 8:55:39 GMT -8
While you guys are arguing about the future, AAPL in the present is staging a comeback, flirting with green a moment ago.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 3, 2017 9:01:30 GMT -8
I realize that things can change quickly, but at this moment it doesn't appear that Apple is doomed. IMO, many, if not most, of the last minute AAPL buyers that pushed up the share price prior to earnings planned to sell very soon after earnings regardless. They were buying in to benefit from any surge and bailed immediately after they could see the writing on the wall. I'm pleased to see the share price recover so well today and I hope many of those bailers sold at a loss during AH yesterday..
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Post by sponge on May 3, 2017 9:38:13 GMT -8
We were at 143 a week ago. In two weeks we will get a better picture of how much we further correct or stay flat. We will need good news to go up and today it was upgrades that helped us counter the initial sell off.
The next big news will be WWDC with some updates and maybe new products.
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Post by macster on May 3, 2017 9:52:21 GMT -8
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Post by macster on May 3, 2017 10:26:35 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on May 3, 2017 11:00:38 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,649
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Post by 4aapl on May 3, 2017 11:05:17 GMT -8
I realize that things can change quickly, but at this moment it doesn't appear that Apple is doomed. IMO, many, if not most, of the last minute AAPL buyers that pushed up the share price prior to earnings planned to sell very soon after earnings regardless. They were buying in to benefit from any surge and bailed immediately after they could see the writing on the wall. I'm pleased to see the share price recover so well today and I hope many of those bailers sold at a loss during AH yesterday.. To me it brought back "classic" AAPL moves from 12 years ago, where the knee jerk reaction went one way in AH, and then the stock would go the other after about an hour into the trading day. I played that a few times in my Roth or IRA, buying back in a few % lower to amass a few more shares. Of course, it all works well until it doesn't, and the last time I tried that I missed a few days of post-earnings run-up instead. Ahhh, the good old days. I bet the plum trees on Apple's "old" campus are in full bloom. Sadly here my formerly 7' fruit trees are just now emerging from the remaining 3' of compacted snow. Like AAPL multiple times in the past 2 decades, this will be a time to regrow, and maybe double down. 50+ year winters only happen every so often...but the skiing was great between breaks in digging out. AAPL is going to have some ups and downs in the next 3 months, especially when hit with rumors during lower volume timeframes while in a historically news-quiet time of the year. But as long as the general expectation of an iPhone super cycle continues, without too much overall market surprises globally or locally, I expect the stock to be higher in 3 months than it is now. 155 seems safe-ish. Above 175 seems pretty unlikely. 155-165 seems about right, unless people start getting really hysterical. In the "it doesn't really matter much but it's fun to hear" category, at least 2 teachers in our small ~25 teacher elementary school upgraded their iPhones last week....from 4 year old iPhone models. Personally, while I'd like to hold out for a new iPhone in the fall, I'd be happy to consider a 7 with the right promotion. Target had something like $300 off at the end of March (Hmmm, end of the Q, imagine that), someone has BOGO at Sams Club if you get DirectTV, and the Sprint CEO is saying they expect to sell a ton of ones in the fall, and have a great promotion now. OK, enough rambling. AAPL is off a whopping 17 cents from their highest ever close yesterday. Oh, now 12 cents. Time to split a few rounds of wood, and prep the chainsaws for a sawyers class this weekend. There's going to be a lot of downed trees on trails this summer, once the snow melts.
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Post by dreamRaj on May 3, 2017 11:08:11 GMT -8
Once we hit green, the party starts!
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Post by rob_london on May 3, 2017 11:23:10 GMT -8
A reaction to the share price? Now deleted.
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Post by Apple II+ on May 3, 2017 11:27:59 GMT -8
In the enthusiasm of Earnings Day I forgot to mention that I'm traveling for the rest of the week. You know what to do. BUY! BUY! BUY!
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Post by phoebear611 on May 3, 2017 12:48:33 GMT -8
I gather you saw the news that QCOM is seeking import ban on iPhone (which in my opinion will NEVER happen). This is a dangerous game that is being played here.
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 3, 2017 14:51:41 GMT -8
Today was a rough day.
It all started this morning when I decided to do the update to the AppleWatch. I thought it would complete the update while I was in the shower. Well, the update wasn't done, and I needed to leave. I put on my old Swiss watch for the day.
Here's where the first problem happened, I looked at my watch to see what the temperature was. It couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. Later, my phone buzzed. I looked at my watch to see what the notification was. Again, it couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. Again later, I needed to find out if I got messages. I looked at my watch to see if the message came in, and it couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. At lunch time, I went to pay for my lunch with ApplePay. I reached to my watch to double press the button, but there was no button. The watch couldn't help me pay for lunch. All it could tell me was the time. I wanted to see how AAPL was doing. I looked at my watch to see how AAPL was doing, and it couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. All is better now. I have my AppleWatch on.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,431
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Post by chinacat on May 3, 2017 17:01:32 GMT -8
Anyone else see Tim Cook tonight on Cramer? Nothing that AFBers don't already know, but he is smooth as silk - knowledgeable, thoughtful, and articulate. This was just another brilliant move by Steve Jobs, from which we will benefit for years. It was not necessarily obvious that the Ops guy would be the one to be the caretaker of the company soul, but as Apple has grown tremendously Tim has nurtured the intangibles that captured most of us initially. I have to think that the planning and transition to the new campus has slowed the realization of a new generation of products that will soon be delighting us.
So yes, I enjoyed the interview.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 3, 2017 17:56:41 GMT -8
Today was a rough day. It all started this morning when I decided to do the update to the AppleWatch. I thought it would complete the update while I was in the shower. Well, the update wasn't done, and I needed to leave. I put on my old Swiss watch for the day. Here's where the first problem happened, I looked at my watch to see what the temperature was. It couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. Later, my phone buzzed. I looked at my watch to see what the notification was. Again, it couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. Again later, I needed to find out if I got messages. I looked at my watch to see if the message came in, and it couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. At lunch time, I went to pay for my lunch with ApplePay. I reached to my watch to double press the button, but there was no button. The watch couldn't help me pay for lunch. All it could tell me was the time. I wanted to see how AAPL was doing. I looked at my watch to see how AAPL was doing, and it couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. All is better now. I have my AppleWatch on. Wonderfully expressed comment, cdnphoto! My wife and I enjoy *all* of the benefits you've highlighted with our own Apple Watches. The FUD that the Apple Watch is a flop couldn't be less true. Apple could have a terrific commercial produced just by having your comment used as a storyboard.
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 3, 2017 18:01:53 GMT -8
Today was a rough day. It all started this morning when I decided to do the update to the AppleWatch. I thought it would complete the update while I was in the shower. Well, the update wasn't done, and I needed to leave. I put on my old Swiss watch for the day. Here's where the first problem happened, I looked at my watch to see what the temperature was. It couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. Later, my phone buzzed. I looked at my watch to see what the notification was. Again, it couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. Again later, I needed to find out if I got messages. I looked at my watch to see if the message came in, and it couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. At lunch time, I went to pay for my lunch with ApplePay. I reached to my watch to double press the button, but there was no button. The watch couldn't help me pay for lunch. All it could tell me was the time. I wanted to see how AAPL was doing. I looked at my watch to see how AAPL was doing, and it couldn't tell me. All it could tell me was the time. All is better now. I have my AppleWatch on. Wonderfully expressed comment, cdnphoto! My wife and I enjoy *all* of the benefits you've highlighted with our own Apple Watches. The FUD that the Apple Watch is a flop couldn't be less true. Apple could have a terrific commercial produced just by having your comment used as a storyboard. Thanks. This really was my day today. I haven't gone a day without the Apple watch (other than going to the beach) pretty much since I got it almost two years ago. I NEED my AppleWatch.
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Post by sponge on May 3, 2017 18:23:07 GMT -8
Anyone else see Tim Cook tonight on Cramer? Nothing that AFBers don't already know, but he is smooth as silk - knowledgeable, thoughtful, and articulate. This was just another brilliant move by Steve Jobs, from which we will benefit for years. It was not necessarily obvious that the Ops guy would be the one to be the caretaker of the company soul, but as Apple has grown tremendously Tim has nurtured the intangibles that captured most of us initially. I have to think that the planning and transition to the new campus has slowed the realization of a new generation of products that will soon be delighting us. So yes, I enjoyed the interview. Nothing really new, but the fact that he did after what many thought was a weaker then usual quarter and guidance, explains his presence. His answer to the tax question and his detail about what Apple contributes to the US economy, indicates a long and challenge road towards meaningful tax reform.
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