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Post by tuffett on Nov 17, 2012 12:00:10 GMT -8
Perhaps all of this is obvious but I have been thinking for a while how Android supposedly has such a huge market share, yet I hardly see them out in the wild. I live in Burnaby, BC and work in downtown Vancouver. I take the bus/train to work and the vast majority of people are using iPhones. Surprisingly, the second most common seems to be Blackerry, not Android. None of this makes sense based on North American marketshare data, which reports that Android has about 50%. On my latest bus ride home, all seven people I could see beside and around me were using iPhones - would be quite a coincidence if market share was under 50% but the interesting thing is it wasn't surprising to me in the least. It happens all the time.
I estimate the following beakdown: iPhone - 65-70% (conservative) Blackberry - 25% (probably higher in Canada than USA) Android - 15-20% (generous)
Obviously demographics and location can have a lot to do with it but I've seen similar observations written here and elsewhere from across the continent. Here are my thoughts on why this is the case.
1) Marketshare data is based on units sold. Both the build quality and the software support of iPhones are far superior to Android, so it is logical to assume the replacement rate of an Android is higher than an iPhone. The lower cost of Android also makes it easier to dump and purchase a new one. This results in more sales of Android, but not a true increase in marketshare, though the data would suggest it.
2) The resale market of iPhones is huge. Many new smartphone users are more than happy to either purchase a used iPhone or receive a hand-me-down from a frequent iPhone upgrader. Once again this is because of the longevity and reliability of the platform and hardware. I suspect this phenomenon is far greater with iPhones than an other smartphone. This is a substantial number of real iPhone users that are not reflected in marketshare data.
3) Blackberry users are mostly business people or younger females who are hooked on BBM.
We all know the data that shows web traffic of iOS obliterates Android. I always found it hard to believe that Android users hardly use their devices at all. It is an easy conclusion but one that doesn't really add up. I think it's far more likely based on the above observations that the real reason is that the iOS/iPhone market share is far higher than reported.
Implications:
1) iPhone and iOS usage is far more prevalent than most people believe. If and when this becomes common knowledge, it means even greater support from developers, and no worry about remaining the dominant and leading platform.
2) More people are using iPhones than people think. Based on the high retention rates, these people are likely to continue using the iOS ecosystem in the future. When they do eventually purchase new devices they will be adding to real sales, which will be captured both by Apple profits and survey data.
3) There are still a large number of Blackberry users who are quite loyal to their devices. If Blackberry eventually does die off, iOS will be the most logical alternative for most of them. iMessage is the next best thing to BBM. A lot of people I know don't want to let go of BBM but ask me about iMessage. I don't believe Android has a better option.
From a corporate standpoint, I think the iPhone has a slight lead over Android because it is much easier to test and implement. Overall, if RIM were to lose more marketshare, the majority of it would probably go to iOS and not Android.
Just some food for thought over the weekend.
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Post by hledgard on Nov 21, 2012 13:27:58 GMT -8
Thoughtful post. I enjoyed reading it and like your analysis.
Thanks ! Dr. L
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Post by adamthompson32 on Feb 27, 2013 21:29:41 GMT -8
I'm switching to Samsung. I'd say that is pretty telling for iPhone and Apple. Here's why I'm switching. The day I bought my iPhone 5 I opened it up and it immediately fell to the floor (in the Apple store, mind you). It got a small crack in the black area by the home button. It has/had no impact on my ability to use the phone so I never really cared about it. It fell because of how Apple puts iPhones in the box. The phone is barely held in the box. Anyhow, it was never an issue for me so I didn't really care about it. Well, now my power button doesn't work at all. Can't turn the phone on or off. It's generally always on so it's not the end of the world but sometimes I do need to turn it or and then back on for various reasons. I was told when I bought the phone that it had a one year hardware warranty. So, I went to the store and they told me I have no warranty because of the small crack on the screen that happened when I bought the phone. Apple won't budge on this. They won't fix my phone or replace it. Are you serious? I am dead serious, no more iPhones for me. I just bought 4 iPads for work purposes and I assure you my next 4 tablets won't be Apple either. I always have disliked Macs (as I sit here typing on my MBP) since I'm so used to Windows but I was a huge iPhone guy before this idiocy from Apple.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Feb 28, 2013 1:33:28 GMT -8
Really??
Do you think ANY other phone vendor would have even listened to your appeal for a replacement? No, they'd have laughed you out of the shop. Or not, because they don't have shops, they'd have let the half-arsed teenagers at a local carrier store laugh at you instead. So why change? There is no better, there is only worse.
Also why on earth didn't you complain and ask for a replacement when you dropped it? Taking it back months later can really only have one outcome.
This story is actually indicative of something I've been thinking for a while. Lots of people are I think taking the Apple "customer experience" ethos for granted, that ethos covering everything from the product conception to end of product life, covering retail, warranties, software updates and everything in-between. People are drifting because the excellence of the Apple journey has become normal to them. Many will move, expecting "normal" to be "normal" elsewhere. It isn't. I think this is a phase for Apple that will cause some short term concern, but I think TC's steadfast belief in the core values will shine through.
In short, much like our broad AAPL sentiment negativity issue, there is some Apple complacency in the eyes of consumers. Perhaps the issues are linked. But both are pendular (is that a word? :-) ), and both will swing back.
EDIT: Cleaned up to be inoffensive so that iPad doesn't have another bad day. DON'T LEAVE IPAD!!!!!!!!
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Post by appledoc on Feb 28, 2013 5:11:44 GMT -8
All valid points. You missed one though. Android users keep their phones in their pockets or purses because 1) They don't use it to do anything except text/call. 2) They're embarrassed about their phone. I actually fell in this group once )
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Post by Lstream on Feb 28, 2013 5:12:25 GMT -8
I would wager that Samsung would not respond any better. You have a much better chance of finding out since The iPhone 5 is three times more reliable than Samsung phones. Not to mention sudden death syndrome and now the copy/paste bug bricking phones. You may be unhappy with Apple and feel like "punishing" them, but it is irrational to think that Samsung is going to be any better. My son was on the dance floor, and somehow his iPhone went flying and the front face got smashed. He took it to the Apple store, told them what happened, and asked how much it would cost to fix it. They gave him a new one. Not sure how to explain the different treatment.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 28, 2013 5:46:07 GMT -8
This story is actually indicative of something I've been thinking for a while. Lots of people are I think taking the Apple "customer experience" ethos for granted, that ethos covering everything from the product conception to end of product life, covering retail, warranties, software updates and everything in-between. People are drifting because the excellence of the Apple journey has become normal to them. Many will move, expecting "normal" to be "normal" elsewhere. It isn't. I think this is a phase for Apple that will cause some short term concern, but I think TC's steadfast belief in the core values will shine through. And in a perverse kind of way, Samsung gets a free pass. Everyone expects a total crap support experience out of them, so when they deliver on that, it is the expected result. They get away with being held to a lower standard.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Feb 28, 2013 22:56:08 GMT -8
Really?? Do you think ANY other phone vendor would have even listened to your appeal for a replacement? No, they'd have laughed you out of the shop. Or not, because they don't have shops, they'd have let the half-arsed teenagers at a local carrier store laugh at you instead. So why change? There is no better, there is only worse. Also why on earth didn't you complain and ask for a replacement when you dropped it? Taking it back months later can really only have one outcome. This story is actually indicative of something I've been thinking for a while. Lots of people are I think taking the Apple "customer experience" ethos for granted, that ethos covering everything from the product conception to end of product life, covering retail, warranties, software updates and everything in-between. People are drifting because the excellence of the Apple journey has become normal to them. Many will move, expecting "normal" to be "normal" elsewhere. It isn't. I think this is a phase for Apple that will cause some short term concern, but I think TC's steadfast belief in the core values will shine through. In short, much like our broad AAPL sentiment negativity issue, there is some Apple complacency in the eyes of consumers. Perhaps the issues are linked. But both are pendular (is that a word? :-) ), and both will swing back. EDIT: Cleaned up to be inoffensive so that iPad doesn't have another bad day. DON'T LEAVE IPAD!!!!!!!! Apple did laugh me out of the store. Why didn't I ask for a replacement in the store? Because there were a thousand people in the store and I'm a pretty laid back guy who didn't care enough to wait because the crack is miniscule and doesn't affect my ability to use the phone at all. Still ridiculous they wouldn't fix or replace the phone. No more Apple or iPhone for me....Ever.
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Post by Apple II+ on Mar 1, 2013 4:29:47 GMT -8
I'm switching to Samsung. I'd say that is pretty telling for iPhone and Apple. Here's why I'm switching. The day I bought my iPhone 5 I opened it up and it immediately fell to the floor (in the Apple store, mind you). It got a small crack in the black area by the home button. It has/had no impact on my ability to use the phone so I never really cared about it. It fell because of how Apple puts iPhones in the box. The phone is barely held in the box. Anyhow, it was never an issue for me so I didn't really care about it. Well, now my power button doesn't work at all. Can't turn the phone on or off. It's generally always on so it's not the end of the world but sometimes I do need to turn it or and then back on for various reasons. I was told when I bought the phone that it had a one year hardware warranty. So, I went to the store and they told me I have no warranty because of the small crack on the screen that happened when I bought the phone. Apple won't budge on this. They won't fix my phone or replace it. Are you serious? I am dead serious, no more iPhones for me. I just bought 4 iPads for work purposes and I assure you my next 4 tablets won't be Apple either. I always have disliked Macs (as I sit here typing on my MBP) since I'm so used to Windows but I was a huge iPhone guy before this idiocy from Apple. That sucks. I wouldn't give up after one store turned me down on one occasion. Have you tried another store or a different day at the same store (different person)? Have you tried calling Apple? If all else fails, I'd email tcook@apple.com.
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Post by rickag on Mar 1, 2013 6:40:24 GMT -8
I'm switching to Samsung. I'd say that is pretty telling for iPhone and Apple. Here's why I'm switching. The day I bought my iPhone 5 I opened it up and it immediately fell to the floor (in the Apple store, mind you). It got a small crack in the black area by the home button. It has/had no impact on my ability to use the phone so I never really cared about it. It fell because of how Apple puts iPhones in the box. The phone is barely held in the box. Anyhow, it was never an issue for me so I didn't really care about it. Well, now my power button doesn't work at all. Can't turn the phone on or off. It's generally always on so it's not the end of the world but sometimes I do need to turn it or and then back on for various reasons. I was told when I bought the phone that it had a one year hardware warranty. So, I went to the store and they told me I have no warranty because of the small crack on the screen that happened when I bought the phone. Apple won't budge on this. They won't fix my phone or replace it. Are you serious? I am dead serious, no more iPhones for me. I just bought 4 iPads for work purposes and I assure you my next 4 tablets won't be Apple either. I always have disliked Macs (as I sit here typing on my MBP) since I'm so used to Windows but I was a huge iPhone guy before this idiocy from Apple. Sorry to hear about your experience. Your experience is completely the opposite of any experience I've had when asking for help from Apple. They have replaced laptop battery charges on 5 year old laptops for free, reinstalled my OS without my disc availabe(re: just trusted me that I had the current OS, which I did), I could go on but that won't help you. Good luck with whatever your decision is.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Mar 1, 2013 8:02:21 GMT -8
I'm switching to Samsung. I'd say that is pretty telling for iPhone and Apple. Here's why I'm switching. The day I bought my iPhone 5 I opened it up and it immediately fell to the floor (in the Apple store, mind you). It got a small crack in the black area by the home button. It has/had no impact on my ability to use the phone so I never really cared about it. It fell because of how Apple puts iPhones in the box. The phone is barely held in the box. Anyhow, it was never an issue for me so I didn't really care about it. Well, now my power button doesn't work at all. Can't turn the phone on or off. It's generally always on so it's not the end of the world but sometimes I do need to turn it or and then back on for various reasons. I was told when I bought the phone that it had a one year hardware warranty. So, I went to the store and they told me I have no warranty because of the small crack on the screen that happened when I bought the phone. Apple won't budge on this. They won't fix my phone or replace it. Are you serious? I am dead serious, no more iPhones for me. I just bought 4 iPads for work purposes and I assure you my next 4 tablets won't be Apple either. I always have disliked Macs (as I sit here typing on my MBP) since I'm so used to Windows but I was a huge iPhone guy before this idiocy from Apple. Sorry to hear about your experience. Your experience is completely the opposite of any experience I've had when asking for help from Apple. They have replaced laptop battery charges on 5 year old laptops for free, reinstalled my OS without my disc availabe(re: just trusted me that I had the current OS, which I did), I could go on but that won't help you. Good luck with whatever your decision is. Decision is made. No more Apple. Ever. Maybe the other guys aren't any better. But they haven't lied to me yet so they will get my future business.
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Post by Lstream on Mar 1, 2013 8:29:46 GMT -8
Decision is made. No more Apple. Ever. Maybe the other guys aren't any better. But they haven't lied to me yet so they will get my future business. You sure about this, or would you like to tell us three more times?
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Post by Apple II+ on Mar 1, 2013 8:41:33 GMT -8
This report seems like it may possibly be a mere anecdotal case of just one employee not meeting the usual standard of Apple service.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Mar 1, 2013 8:49:02 GMT -8
Decision is made. No more Apple. Ever. Maybe the other guys aren't any better. But they haven't lied to me yet so they will get my future business. You sure about this, or would you like to tell us three more times? I'll report to you about Samsung in the future. As many times as I want.
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Post by dmiller on Mar 5, 2013 6:33:54 GMT -8
I'm switching to Samsung. I'd say that is pretty telling for iPhone and Apple. Here's why I'm switching. The day I bought my iPhone 5 I opened it up and it immediately fell to the floor (in the Apple store, mind you). It got a small crack in the black area by the home button. It has/had no impact on my ability to use the phone so I never really cared about it. It fell because of how Apple puts iPhones in the box. The phone is barely held in the box. Anyhow, it was never an issue for me so I didn't really care about it. Well, now my power button doesn't work at all. Can't turn the phone on or off. It's generally always on so it's not the end of the world but sometimes I do need to turn it or and then back on for various reasons. I was told when I bought the phone that it had a one year hardware warranty. So, I went to the store and they told me I have no warranty because of the small crack on the screen that happened when I bought the phone. Apple won't budge on this. They won't fix my phone or replace it. Are you serious? I am dead serious, no more iPhones for me. I just bought 4 iPads for work purposes and I assure you my next 4 tablets won't be Apple either. I always have disliked Macs (as I sit here typing on my MBP) since I'm so used to Windows but I was a huge iPhone guy before this idiocy from Apple. And yet you didn't get AppleCare+ for it (which I've gotten on every iPhone in my family). That would have let you break the phone, drop it in the toilet, or whatever you want, twice within the AppleCare+ extended warranty period, and you'd have gotten another phone for the $50 deductible. Plus you'd have the extra length of warranty coverage. This is a no-brainer to me. Show me the comparable Samsung extended warranty. My experience with iPhones and AppleCare/AppleCare+: I've had the original iPhone, 3GS, 4, and 4S, my wife has a 4S, my two college-age kids have 4's. I've replaced 2 of my iPhones for minor issues, both towards the end of the extended warranty period. I could have kept going, but why not get a "new" (refurb) that's as good as new and have something that can be passed along or is worth much more for resale? My daughter's 4: the on/off switch started sticking towards the end of it's 2 year Applecare cycle. I took it to the Apple Store and got a replacement, not a problem. My son's 4: the speaker/microphone wasn't working very well any more. Still usable, but annoying. I took it to the Apple Store with about a month left on AppleCare+, got a replacement, done. That's 4 uses of AppleCare+ to replace somewhat-diminished-but-still-working iPhones. Well worth the cost and not needing to worry about these things. And if any of the phones were dropped, cracked, broken, immersed: $50 deductible. Small price to pay for getting a good-as-new replacement. *** And so, I'll say again: with this kind of warranty service available to you, for a reasonable price, and no questions asked about what happened to the phone (at worst, you'd have paid $50 for replacing it) - why do you think that going to a non-iPhone is going to be better, or that Apple's screwed you over? They don't owe you a new phone if you dropped and broke it and if you didn't get the extra, reasonably priced coverage - although anecdotally, most people have found that they get replacement iPhones or iPads even in situations like this.
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Post by rickag on Mar 5, 2013 10:30:49 GMT -8
dmiller So you're why EPS dropped.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Apr 26, 2013 1:40:46 GMT -8
I said flat iPhone share in the holiday Q was a disaster in the making and predicted lost share in the March Q before growth went negative possibly in the June Q. I was doubted and mocked by many. Oops.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Apr 26, 2013 6:32:02 GMT -8
Clearly you are a genius, and a one-man leading indicator of Apple's fortunes.
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