4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 19, 2012 13:13:13 GMT -8
i fully believe aapl can come back twice as fast as they've sold off - come january it'll be like the last 8? weeks never happened. IMO while AAPL might make it back to 600-650 quickly, it's going to be a while until it sees 700 again. It will be soon enough, well within 6 months as long as fundamentals don't actually get bad. But while I'm not placing money on the bear side, I wouldn't expect to get above 700 until after earnings at the earliest, and maybe late Feb or March if earnings only barely beat estimates. I'll be quite happy with the stock back above 700, but I'm just not holding my breath and think we need to try to have a clear perspective even on a monster day like today.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 13:14:36 GMT -8
Hmm...going into Looking at Some Other Traders' Opinions Modeā¢ (hey, I always trade my own way, always have, always will)...
Redler vs. an absolutist, double-down type who refuses to acknowledge today as meaningful? I'll bet on Red every time. Trade what you see, and for crying out loud, call a spade a spade. There's money to be made even in the downtrends.
Today, for instance.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 19, 2012 13:14:37 GMT -8
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! CALM DOWN, iPad! CALM DOWN! Quick! Do you see any downside to a super-move like this? Where...uh...four? levels of resistance and an SMA-50 were obliterated like they weren't even there? In a day? This doesn't feel like a bounce...or a snapback...the momentum didn't just shift, the boulder's rolling uphill with rocket boosters attached... +1 Really looking for some insight into what this all means. Man, my neck is still sore
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 19, 2012 13:23:11 GMT -8
nkmho!!! first day in a while I *want* to see that ticker box on the main page!!!
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Post by doublerainbow on Nov 19, 2012 13:24:01 GMT -8
i fully believe aapl can come back twice as fast as they've sold off - come january it'll be like the last 8? weeks never happened. IMO while AAPL might make it back to 600-650 quickly, it's going to be a while until it sees 700 again. It will be soon enough, well within 6 months as long as fundamentals don't actually get bad. But while I'm not placing money on the bear side, I wouldn't expect to get above 700 until after earnings at the earliest, and maybe late Feb or March if earnings only barely beat estimates. I'll be quite happy with the stock back above 700, but I'm just not holding my breath and think we need to try to have a clear perspective even on a monster day like today. Understood. Didn't say $700+ by January but give or take $20 from it would be my prediction. My first prediction of a 7% move was right so far (refer to nov 14 post), but I hope it's not just a coincidence. anyway great day, enjoying it !
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 13:28:11 GMT -8
If I'm reading iPad's graciously provided charts right, this is the strongest response to an SMA-50 weekly failure AAPL has had since 2006. Really, it may end up looking more like a bounce than a breach! That has to count for something.
Who knows about the rest of the week, of course, but it's hard not to feel a _little_ optimistic heading into Tuesday.
It also helps that AAPL's spotting me a few bucks despite my setting up a momo trade a little shy of 560. Wow.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 19, 2012 13:31:36 GMT -8
I need to go study my charts... Quick-and-dirty WAG... At some point, we will retrace 23.6% - 38.2% of the move from 505 to xxx -- just take it level by level until we see where resistance holds. One thing we've seen this year...AAPL's trends can be ruthlessly one-sided for inordinate durations. We closed above the daily EMA-13. If we can hold above there, next target is daily SMA-20.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 13:34:58 GMT -8
I need to go study my charts... Quick-and-dirty WAG... At some point, we will retrace 23.6% - 38.2% of the move from 505 to xxx -- just take it level by level until we see where resistance holds. One thing we've seen this year...AAPL's trends can be ruthlessly one-sided for inordinate durations. We closed above the daily EMA-13. If we can hold above there, next target is daily SMA-20. Just as a reminder, AAPL _did_ have the "requisite" retrace of its maybe-reversal on Friday, BY Friday. Right around 38.2% of it. Today's follow-through suggests what a holding of the 38.2% implies - the move up still has power. Of course, no one saw a move THIS big. For now, I'm in Momo-Test mode. AAPL gave me some space to work with, and we'll see if we get some extra follow-through tomorrow. If I'm fortunate enough, I might trim, hedge or sell the Mar 550 trade around AAPL 570 and go from there.
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Post by vikesfaniv on Nov 19, 2012 13:41:14 GMT -8
Just looked at Apple's website... shipping times for iPhone5 are now at 2 weeks even.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 13:43:57 GMT -8
When Tim Cook says he's "happy" with production levels, I guess he ain't kidding.
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Post by mtjs on Nov 19, 2012 13:45:42 GMT -8
... see me sitting in my corner, with my buyorder @ 500.1
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Post by miguelfoogo on Nov 19, 2012 13:56:51 GMT -8
... see me sitting in my corner, with my buyorder @ 500.1 I remember you posting that and saying the price would go up because of your order. I thought of your post later on when we moved pretty fast up. We all appreciate that you took that one for team.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Nov 19, 2012 14:00:14 GMT -8
Wow. Closed right around 566. Up over 7 friggin' percent. Congrats to the longs, big time! Since I'm more bull than bear, I'm curious - how DOES a bear react to a day like this? The same way the rest of us have been reacting since 21-Sep!
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 19, 2012 14:07:17 GMT -8
Since I'm more bull than bear, I'm curious - how DOES a bear react to a day like this? I'd have to think there are more short term bears than long term bears on AAPL, mainly because the LT bears (who actually put money on it instead of just saying it) have long ago been shot. A short term bear would hopefully be out of the trade sometime today or even Friday, with or without profits. And there were plenty of profits to be had....the other side of the trade that all of us bulls were on. Someone could have made a lot of money on the other side of my trades. But I'm a long term bull, and I expect over the long term to continue doing well. (100th post, my how time flies)
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Post by lance on Nov 19, 2012 14:07:50 GMT -8
I can't wait for the article tomorrow saying demand must be down because shipping is now 2 weeks from the same guys bitching about supply for the past 2 months haha.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 19, 2012 14:35:09 GMT -8
Fear not - I received my iPad mini a few moments ago - FULL ONE DAY EARLY! So there ya go!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 19, 2012 14:36:23 GMT -8
Thanks for contributing to the cause.
Signed,
Limited Edition iPad 3 Buyer
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 19, 2012 14:41:05 GMT -8
Fear not - I received my iPad mini a few moments ago - FULL ONE DAY EARLY! So there ya go! Good thing they found those IPad minis stolen at LaGuardia.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 19, 2012 14:51:45 GMT -8
Fear not - I received my iPad mini a few moments ago - FULL ONE DAY EARLY! So there ya go! Good thing they found those IPad minis stolen at LaGuardia. I'm sticking to my story!
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 19, 2012 14:52:36 GMT -8
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Post by roni on Nov 19, 2012 15:17:39 GMT -8
Best. Day. Ever.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 19, 2012 15:19:01 GMT -8
OK, I want to nominate a new Colossally Dumb Meme Award™ in honor of Anthony Scaramucci of Fast Money. This dumb bunny Scaramucci keeps repeating that "Apple has stopped innovating" bullshit. Even worse, he attributes the recent sell-off to it, without a shred of evidence. Newsflash for dumb bunnies: Apple innovated the personal computer revolution in the late 1970's. It lasted about 40 years. Then Apple creatively destroyed it with mobile, smartphones and tablets. 75% of the world is still waiting for cellphone towers, so it might be a bit early to say this revolution has run its course. So yeah, can Apple at least saturate all addressable markets with its current mobile products, before it has to reinvent consumer computing all over again, let alone every two quarters? I mean, we don't even have a full quarter of iPhone 5 sales, or even a partial quarter of Mini sales, let alone are they getting stale. Seriously, does Apple have to launch a product, and then launch another one to replace it in the same quarter? And what other company, Scarabunny, do you demand this incessant innovation of, BTW? Let alone one priced below the S&P 500 P/E average? Apple is priced like a bad company, not a perfect one, yet you hold it to this ridiculous standard of innovate a new product every month or die. To you and all other dumb bunnies, why doesn't every company with a higher P/E than Apple have to do this? Yes, I know, I shouldn't watch CNBC. But idiots shouldn't be on financial shows. It's not a perfect world.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 19, 2012 15:19:50 GMT -8
Fear not - I received my iPad mini a few moments ago - FULL ONE DAY EARLY! So there ya go! OMG, DEMAND HAS CRATERED! SELL!
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Post by aapl4kiki on Nov 19, 2012 15:35:37 GMT -8
Fear not - I received my iPad mini a few moments ago - FULL ONE DAY EARLY! So there ya go! OMG, DEMAND HAS CRATERED! SELL! So JD...should UCLA play to win or send the practice squad out this week against Stanford? Last year in Eugene was ugly. Then again, Ricky is gone.
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Post by chasmac on Nov 19, 2012 15:42:47 GMT -8
I have been waiting for this. Huge AC/DC fan. Bought some Leaps, damn dirt cheap!
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Post by chasmac on Nov 19, 2012 15:45:49 GMT -8
I'll take a crack at that one. It's failed because it is aimed specifically at non-Apple customers, people who inherently want cheap or free technology and other products. Thank you Zeke for an eloquent rebuttal. Many Droid users will become iPhone/Apple users eventually, not the other way around. +1 Zeke
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 19, 2012 15:48:27 GMT -8
Good thing they found those IPad minis stolen at LaGuardia. I'm sticking to my story! No, I'm saying that the only reason yours showed up early is because they found those. You received one of the almost "hot" ones.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 19, 2012 15:50:49 GMT -8
OK, I want to nominate a new Colossally Dumb Meme Award™ in honor of Anthony Scaramucci of Fast Money. This dumb bunny Scaramucci keeps repeating that "Apple has stopped innovating" bullshit. Even worse, he attributes the recent sell-off to it, without a shred of evidence. Newsflash for dumb bunnies: Apple innovated the personal computer revolution in the late 1970's. It lasted about 40 years. Then Apple creatively destroyed it with mobile, smartphones and tablets. 75% of the world is still waiting for cellphone towers, so it might be a bit early to say this revolution has run its course. So yeah, can Apple at least saturate all addressable markets with its current mobile products, before it has to reinvent consumer computing all over again, let alone every two quarters? I mean, we don't even have a full quarter of iPhone 5 sales, or even a partial quarter of Mini sales, let alone are they getting stale. Seriously, does Apple have to launch a product, and then launch another one to replace it in the same quarter? And what other company, Scarabunny, do you demand this incessant innovation of, BTW? Let alone one priced below the S&P 500 P/E average? Apple is priced like a bad company, not a perfect one, yet you hold it to this ridiculous standard of innovate a new product every month or die. To you and all other dumb bunnies, why doesn't every company with a higher P/E than Apple have to do this? Yes, I know, I shouldn't watch CNBC. But idiots shouldn't be on financial shows. It's not a perfect world. He's still shocked that Romney didn't win. He and I exchanged twitters about the election over the summer, and Anthony thought for sure Romney had it. But he's just drinking the CNBC kool-aid, which is a requirement for being on any CNBC show.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 19, 2012 15:53:06 GMT -8
I'm sticking to my story! No, I'm saying that the only reason yours showed up early is because they found those. You received one of the almost "hot" ones. I don't care if the tooth fairy or Santa brought it - I'm just glad it's finally here...I feel like it took forever....actually it did take forever..but well worth the wait.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2012 15:54:43 GMT -8
I'm not launching any Saturn 5s until AAPL is over $600. This sell off has been total dumb-bunniness, if I may crib from JD.
While insanity pervaded AAPL, I sold much my deep ITM calls and rolled them into LEAPS. I was ready to deploy my last block on Friday but AAPL held 500 as I expected. Still hurting but am poised for full recovery with patience.
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