Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 13:47:23 GMT -8
Hmm. Sadly, Dave from that other forum is still in denial.
180 new members here kinda says something. But hey, they have plenty of open space to make tweaks, if not as much input.
Using Cl4's ships as an analogy, that ship has sailed.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 13:49:53 GMT -8
Mark, here I am I left the last board primarily because it was too easy to get caught up in the crazy exuberance aka drinking too much kool-aid. Hopefully, we have a healthy dose of contrarian thinkers on this board to offset the cheerleaders. I can certainly provide my fair share! I believe we're due for a market sell-off - maybe as early next week with AAPL simultaneously reporting huge pre-orders but significantly lower shipments. We may see $680 or lower. I think they're still struggling with component supplies and this won't be fixed until production yields improve on certain key components. The monster in the room is the December quarter, however, so I always keep that in mind. Angel, we NEED contrarian voices -- whether that's bearish in an uptrend or bullish in a downtrend -- because periodically, trends reverse...and usually when the crowd least expects it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 13:51:10 GMT -8
Ahem!
I'm fine with different viewpoints expressed with civility.
Thing is, "we may see $680 or lower" needs a downtrend thesis. Not just so you can "back it up", it's also extremely useful if you're actually thinking of acting on that conviction.
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Post by goodwine on Sept 18, 2012 13:53:40 GMT -8
Bull or bear, I don't care. But be consistent and as solid as possible in your analysis. Counterpoints: 4S and iPad didn't move the stock? Sure it did! iPad Air could be a very big deal. Define "exuberance". Is S&P market multiple exuberant? Why do you think AAPL is going down 10-12%? More importantly, under what theory? For the record, I trade AAPL puts/put spreads from time to time and I'm an avid hedger. So I'm not all AAPL calls all the time. I think the better point is that the markets were generally in trouble last fall. But they may soon be again, and iPhone 4s and iPad didn't move the stock until January. I think that there is a lot of skepticism about Apple (deserved or not is beside the point) and that the stock is very much in a "show me" situation. If I'm right about that, it helps explain the stock's performance last fall and also why it took off after earnings in January. Yes, iPad Mini, or whatever you want to call it, could indeed be a big deal. But for sure its significance is not going to register until January earnings. I don't think that the markets generally are exuberant. But I think that Apple was ahead of itself in April/May and I think that it may be getting there again. And I am very concerned, ignoring Europe, about the macro situation. Anyway, just some thoughts which you apparently don't think much of, which is fine. P.S. I don't trade Apple. Right now, I own shares and 2013 and 2014 calls and bull call spreads.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 18, 2012 13:54:26 GMT -8
iPad - you need to decide about whether to section the thread off by week or day - don't forget
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 13:55:52 GMT -8
Oh, Smite me. (No really, there's a button there.)
iPad, goodwine might have trouble believing me, so would you mind letting him know on by behalf that I mean absolutely no disrespect? That's probably one of the quickest and best ways to defuse this misunderstanding I created.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 13:57:28 GMT -8
Oh, and I should mention, my TRADE OF THE YEARâ„¢ 2011 was a tactical short of AAPL from 420, which would have even impressed Redler although it was 500% dog luck.
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Post by goodwine on Sept 18, 2012 14:03:22 GMT -8
iPad, goodwine might have trouble believing me, so would you mind letting him know on by behalf that I mean absolutely no disrespect? That's probably one of the quickest and best ways to defuse this misunderstanding I created. No problem.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 14:05:01 GMT -8
I'm not looking over my shoulder, but rather at what happened September through December of last year. (...) Hi, goodwine!! Nice to meet you!! Well, I'm almost always looking over my shoulder, I rarely trust the market, and I love a good conspiracy theory. ;D I think last September through December had less to do with Apple, and more to do with the broader market. I believe we were well on our way to a crash when the coordinated central banks saved the day in November -- on the Monday following Black Friday. So now, I am wondering if QE3 has the same effect on the market as the introduction of QE1. If so, AAPL will be 1000 in January, and the shorts will be bankrupt...after which GS & friends will cash out, and we'll have that haircut the bears anticipated.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 14:10:25 GMT -8
iPad - you need to decide about whether to section the thread off by week or day - don't forget Thanks, Phoebes!! So I was thinking... Perhaps we can have individual days during the week. Then at the end of the week, I'll archive each week into one thread? Oh, and I can close each daily thread the next day, so we aren't posting all over the place. How does that sound? (RG, you there? Okay compromise?)
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Post by mightydog on Sept 18, 2012 14:11:33 GMT -8
As for the lines at the 5th Ave Apple Store in NYC. On Sunday morning there were 11 or so chairs/mini camps already set up. Haven't been past the store since then but I suspect the number is larger. If I get a chance I'll swing by before Friday and conduct some due diligence.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 14:12:15 GMT -8
While bullish on AAPL, most of us traders (I trade/invest multi-timeframe) are "gleefully" trying to outrun the serious worldwide structural macro issues. The challenge will be if ever the music stops. Oh sure I already have plans to short AMZN but there's plans and then there's putting them to work when those bears jump out the window for real.
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Post by goodwine on Sept 18, 2012 14:19:35 GMT -8
I'm not looking over my shoulder, but rather at what happened September through December of last year. (...) Hi, goodwine!! Nice to meet you!! Well, I'm almost always looking over my shoulder, I rarely trust the market, and I love a good conspiracy theory. ;D I think last September through December had less to do with Apple, and more to do with the broader market. I believe we were well on our way to a crash when the coordinated central banks saved the day in November -- on the Monday following Black Friday. So now, I am wondering if QE3 has the same effect on the market as the introduction of QE1. If so, AAPL will be 1000 in January, and the shorts will be bankrupt...after which GS & friends will cash out, and we'll have that haircut the bears anticipated. As I said to Mav, I think his better argument is that last fall Apple was just a victim of general market conditions. While I don't doubt that macro concerns and market performance were factors, I have a lot of trouble escaping the fact that Apple basically did nothing until the company was able to demonstrate in January what its actual holiday performance was. Note that the central bank actions of which you speak happened in November, and Apple still did next to nothing until January. Yet other stocks I own did quite well in December. Personally, I'm not convinced that further Quantitative Easing in the US and elsewhere is going to give the markets a major jolt. Why? Because China is slowing down, a situation that will not be addressed until the new leadership is in place, and because the US is on a fiscally irresponsible path, a situation that will not be addressed until the new Congress meets. At some point, the US Congress has to address the country's finances instead of dumping the whole issue on Bernanke.
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 18, 2012 14:20:36 GMT -8
iPad - you need to decide about whether to section the thread off by week or day - don't forget Thanks, Phoebes!! So I was thinking... Perhaps we can have individual days during the week. Then at the end of the week, I'll archive each week into one thread? Oh, and I can close each daily thread the next day, so we aren't posting all over the place. How does that sound? (RG, you there? Okay compromise?) Hey I think that would be terrific. I often try to find things and find myself going over massive threads. I like this idea - I say go with it
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 18, 2012 14:30:11 GMT -8
As I said to Mav, I think his better argument is that last fall Apple was just a victim of general market conditions. While I don't doubt that macro concerns and market performance were factors, I have a lot of trouble escaping the fact that Apple basically did nothing until the company was able to demonstrate in January what its actual holiday performance was. Note that the central bank actions of which you speak happened in November, and Apple still did next to nothing until January. Yet other stocks I own did quite well in December. Personally, I'm not convinced that further Quantitative Easing in the US and elsewhere is going to give the markets a major jolt. Why? Because China is slowing down, a situation that will not be addressed until the new leadership is in place, and because the US is on a fiscally irresponsible path, a situation that will not be addressed until the new Congress meets. At some point, the US Congress has to address the country's finances instead of dumping the whole issue on Bernanke. Excellent points, all of them.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 18, 2012 14:59:19 GMT -8
Mav, even when I'm agreeing with you I disagree (don't back down; if we weren't overall bullish AAPL we wouldn't have a forum). and iPad didn't move the stock? Sure it did! Not only that, but the iPhone 5 was the first total refresh in 27 months, so not analogous to 4S. Yes, and it won't take a full quarter for it to affect the stock price, IMO. It might be baked-in by Oct, but it will be there. Yep. Is $GOOG exuberant at a 21 P/E? Amazon at 315? LOL, imagine having a P/E above your stock price. Exactly. Sounds like a Spongian WAG. Of course, nothing goes up forever without a pullback. But just because AAPL (finally) popped to a PARABOLIC 16 P/E, it doesn't mean we don't have plenty of pop left. The pop that keeps on popping? I'm just tired of seeing Apple get called out anytime it even catches up with the S&P 500! No offense goodwine. Do not mistake passion and conviction for anger or hostility. But there is no shortage of bear cases out there, and we all hear them, even if we try to avoid CNBC. I'm here to keep it real, not earn Karma points (as if that were a big risk).
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 18, 2012 15:01:26 GMT -8
iPad - you need to decide about whether to section the thread off by week or day - don't forget Thanks, Phoebes!! So I was thinking... Perhaps we can have individual days during the week. Then at the end of the week, I'll archive each week into one thread? Oh, and I can close each daily thread the next day, so we aren't posting all over the place. How does that sound? (RG, you there? Okay compromise?) Personally I really like the individual days. What goes on there is usually pertinent to that day. Lovey's place needs to have a few wrinkles.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 18, 2012 15:10:54 GMT -8
As for the lines at the 5th Ave Apple Store in NYC. On Sunday morning there were 11 or so chairs/mini camps already set up. Haven't been past the store since then but I suspect the number is larger. If I get a chance I'll swing by before Friday and conduct some due diligence. I was there in July, I can't imagine how it will be on Friday. I was tough to get in mid week.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 18, 2012 15:16:38 GMT -8
As for the lines at the 5th Ave Apple Store in NYC. On Sunday morning there were 11 or so chairs/mini camps already set up. Haven't been past the store since then but I suspect the number is larger. If I get a chance I'll swing by before Friday and conduct some due diligence. I was there in July, I can't imagine how it will be on Friday. I was tough to get in mid week. Cool pic, Mark. But I'm going to offer you a style tip:
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Post by roni on Sept 18, 2012 15:21:59 GMT -8
I held today,and plan to into next week. The April $700s I opened at the end of keynote dip are up 42% and I will get a little antsy to close part of that position before too long, but not yet.
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Post by goodwine on Sept 18, 2012 15:24:18 GMT -8
Mav, even when I'm agreeing with you I disagree (don't back down; if we weren't overall bullish AAPL we wouldn't have a forum). and iPad didn't move the stock? Sure it did! Not only that, but the iPhone 5 was the first total refresh in 27 months, so not analogous to 4S. Yes, and it won't take a full quarter for it to affect the stock price, IMO. It might be baked-in by Oct, but it will be there. Yep. Is $GOOG exuberant at a 21 P/E? Amazon at 315? LOL, imagine having a P/E above your stock price. Exactly. Sounds like a Spongian WAG. Of course, nothing goes up forever without a pullback. But just because AAPL (finally) popped to a PARABOLIC 16 P/E, it doesn't mean we don't have plenty of pop left. The pop that keeps on popping? I'm just tired of seeing Apple get called out anytime it even catches up with the S&P 500! No offense goodwine. Do not mistake passion and conviction for anger or hostility. But there is no shortage of bear cases out there, and we all hear them, even if we try to avoid CNBC. I'm here to keep it real, not earn Karma points (as if that were a big risk). I've got the message. Won't bother posting again.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Sept 18, 2012 15:26:23 GMT -8
Style tip ? Seems to me Mark fits the bold. No underline, italics or youtube.
In afterhours, holding over 701. The Dow and S&P were in basic sync for the day. Apple's beta is higher so it tended to lead the others. (boy, I want to insert some G-rated profanity there).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 15:30:33 GMT -8
"Golly gee wow"?
Heh.
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Post by moltenfire on Sept 18, 2012 15:31:02 GMT -8
Mav, even when I'm agreeing with you I disagree (don't back down; if we weren't overall bullish AAPL we wouldn't have a forum). Not only that, but the iPhone 5 was the first total refresh in 27 months, so not analogous to 4S. Yes, and it won't take a full quarter for it to affect the stock price, IMO. It might be baked-in by Oct, but it will be there. Yep. Is $GOOG exuberant at a 21 P/E? Amazon at 315? LOL, imagine having a P/E above your stock price. Exactly. Sounds like a Spongian WAG. Of course, nothing goes up forever without a pullback. But just because AAPL (finally) popped to a PARABOLIC 16 P/E, it doesn't mean we don't have plenty of pop left. The pop that keeps on popping? I'm just tired of seeing Apple get called out anytime it even catches up with the S&P 500! No offense goodwine. Do not mistake passion and conviction for anger or hostility. But there is no shortage of bear cases out there, and we all hear them, even if we try to avoid CNBC. I'm here to keep it real, not earn Karma points (as if that were a big risk). I've got the message. Won't bother posting again. goodwine, please keep posting as the bear argument must be made as well as the bull. Right now the AFB2 is giddy with excitement at $700 and the iPhone 5 so there is a tendency for bears to be dismissed. I know it can be lonely at times and it often feels like you're defending yourself all the time. But for the health of the board, please keep voicing all the bear theories as well as the bull theories too.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 18, 2012 15:31:34 GMT -8
Mav, even when I'm agreeing with you I disagree (don't back down; if we weren't overall bullish AAPL we wouldn't have a forum). Not only that, but the iPhone 5 was the first total refresh in 27 months, so not analogous to 4S. Yes, and it won't take a full quarter for it to affect the stock price, IMO. It might be baked-in by Oct, but it will be there. Yep. Is $GOOG exuberant at a 21 P/E? Amazon at 315? LOL, imagine having a P/E above your stock price. Exactly. Sounds like a Spongian WAG. Of course, nothing goes up forever without a pullback. But just because AAPL (finally) popped to a PARABOLIC 16 P/E, it doesn't mean we don't have plenty of pop left. The pop that keeps on popping? I'm just tired of seeing Apple get called out anytime it even catches up with the S&P 500! No offense goodwine. Do not mistake passion and conviction for anger or hostility. But there is no shortage of bear cases out there, and we all hear them, even if we try to avoid CNBC. I'm here to keep it real, not earn Karma points (as if that were a big risk). I've got the message. Won't bother posting again. That was decidedly not the message. The message was, back up your take with a thesis. And be prepared to defend it from withering fire.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 15:32:28 GMT -8
(RG, you there? Okay compromise?) RG? Where? Heck, I could probably count 20 active posters from that...other forum who've decided to just be lurkers. C'mon, people! This party isn't going anywhere!
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Post by goodwine on Sept 18, 2012 15:53:09 GMT -8
I've got the message. Won't bother posting again. goodwine, please keep posting as the bear argument must be made as well as the bull. Right now the AFB2 is giddy with excitement at $700 and the iPhone 5 so there is a tendency for bears to be dismissed. I know it can be lonely at times and it often feels like you're defending yourself all the time. But for the health of the board, please keep voicing all the bear theories as well as the bull theories too. Given my declared long position in shares and options in Apple, it should be clear that I am bullish. But I have reservations in the short term, which apparently can't be expressed without being attacked. A good reason not to bother.
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Post by rickag on Sept 18, 2012 15:54:38 GMT -8
....., Israel bombing Iran, This scares me more than anything. Iran is run by a zealot and Israel will not allow Iran to go nuclear, period.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 15:56:52 GMT -8
goodwine, please keep posting as the bear argument must be made as well as the bull. Hence "bull or bear, I don't care." I honestly don't. I fully intend to be on the right side of the trade if, knock on anodized aluminum , early April 2012 ever happens again. By the way, it's MUCH easier to make a tactical/downtrend bear case than a structural one (read: Apple the company is doomed). 400 >> 644 from January - April. 644 >> 700 from April - now. Not comparable periods of exuberance. See also AAPL earnings growth. Again, all views are welcome if presented with civility, and because many of us here ARE fairly experienced traders/investors (note "experienced", as in battle scars, not necessarily blingcases), we have a strong preference towards "showing your work" no matter what your theory is. I will just as easily challenge an AAPL 1500 target if someone just says "AAPL 1500!111!!" and doesn't elaborate. Just bring along a thesis if you're gonna make a market call so you can back it up, that's all. Like I said, not only does it make your analysis clear (hey, I think contrarian now and then on AAPL too), it also helps you focus your own thoughts if you decide to trade your conviction.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 18, 2012 16:05:41 GMT -8
Oh, that's just JD's rhetorical flourish.
Btw, Sponge is so permabull it's almost ridiculous (some go further than that assessment). We equal-opportunity challenge ALL AAPL theories. It's irresponsible not to. The goal is to max gain with minimal pain, according to one's own investing/trading plan, risk tolerance and timeframe.
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