chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Jul 22, 2017 8:43:51 GMT -8
Looks like the summer doldrums have set in here at AFB, despite the third green week in a row, as well as the beat this week in the face of monthly option expirations. One thing that hasn't changed, however, is the steady drumbeat of imminent problems sure to ruin the 10th anniversary iPhone release. If only Apple had some experience in designing and producing top-flight mobile phones. Oh, well, at times like these it's always good to get a few laughs from the Macalope: Insanely Gr8: The iPhone 8 paradox <== link now fixed
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 22, 2017 12:08:55 GMT -8
I'm enclosing a link to an article on Seeking Alpha called, "The Long Case For Apple" by Andres Cardenal. Of interest to me was not just the positive commentary on Apple but the fact that the author was...wait for it...actually *invested* in the stock about which they were writing. What a shocker! I'm so used to seeing Apple articles where the author is praising or dissing Apple but has no money invested either way. The Long Case For AppleI'm also enclosing a comment made by a person, Wiseyou, who I'd mentioned previously as a long term AAPL investor on SA who really seems to understand the company. I encourage members to read both the article and Wiseyou's comment and I'd be interested to read your thoughts or agreement/disagreement with either. ====================== Wiseyou Comments (444) |Following |Send Message djsreds, You will find many commentators here who have recommended selling Apple for a variety of reasons. None of them have been right to date in the past two years on Seeking Alpha. Blair, in particular, has been wrong so many times that many people say that every time he posts, the stock goes up. Cho strongly supported Apple for a long time and turned bearish several months ago, probably much to his chagrin because the stock kept going up another 25 points.
This article, in my opinion, is probably the best summary of the reasons why you invest and hold Apple stocks for a long time. Apple stock prices have outperformed the market over the past two years. The company is a cash cow, generating more profit than any other company in the world and in history. It has an enormous amount of cash (some $256 billion) stashed away overseas that serves as a buffer should the economy turn down. Apple's iPhone, iPad, Mac computers, and Apple Watch are each the most profitable products in their category, earning as much as 80% of the profit in each category and generating over $220 billion per year. Apple buys a significant amount of its own stock every year and consistently increases its dividends.
In 2017, most analysts forecast that Apple will beat 2016 revenues and earnings by 3-4%. In 2018, Apple is expected to increase its revenues and earnings substantially from two new products that will be introduced late this year or next year: HomePod (a high end smart speaker), iPhone X (a limited edition 10th Anniversary iPhone). Apple is also likely to introduce a new Mac Pro, perhaps the most powerful desktop computer. This year so far, Apple refreshed several of their product lines, including a new Macbook Pros and new iPad Pros. While iPhones still account for 60% Apple's revenues, Apple Services (App Store, iCloud, Music, and other services) have been growing by 10-20% each year and now account for over 10% Apple revenues and profits.
Apple's third quarter, which is from May to July, is typically the lowest earning quarter, occurring before the iPhone launch that usually occurs in September. The fourth quarter which goes from August through November does not include Christmas. Usually Apples fiscal first quarter is their best. So, the stock may fall a bit during this quarter and it is a good time to buy. Everybody is rushing to predict how Apple will do.
The best predictor of Apple is Apple itself. Every quarter, they provide guidance for the revenues, gross margins, expenses, and performance of the major products. They almost never miss. For more than a decade, Apple has accurately predicted their financial performance. Very occasionally, Apple might exceed their own expectations but not meeting expectations is very rare. So, surprises are rare.
This is not a stock to gamble with. It just keeps going up, steadily and consistently. It is a stock to buy and hold. If it falls, I usually buy some more. I automatically convert the dividends into stocks. It should deliver 10-20% or more gains per year. Don't listen to people who say that the cell phone market is saturated. It is not. People are upgrading their iPhones every 3-4 years. About 10% of the iPhones are purchased by people switching from Android. Customer satisfaction and loyalty is exceeding high With over a billion people owning iPhones or iPad by 2020, just return purchasers will generate a $250 billion annual revenues.
Many people are worried about the lack of innovation since Steve Jobs (the previous CEO) died. They have nothing to worry about. Apple is making ten times more money since Steve Job died. Apple has a lot of innovation left in its tanks and it is still leading the smartphone field in terms of performance and features.
They have of course made a couple of bets regarding future products and so far, they may have been right. For example, Apple decided not to go the route of having a touchscreen laptop. They believe that a laptop should be keyboard based and a iPad is not a laptop replacement. They have also bet on the increasing popularity of the iPad, even though iPad sales have now fallen in 16 quarters consecutively. 22 Jul 2017, 10:19 AM Report Abuse
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Post by longsince98 on Jul 22, 2017 17:29:53 GMT -8
Hey gang,
Im wondering the opinions of people who've been long AAPL for a long time (like me), and are familiar enough with patterns since the meteoric rise.
I'm no technician, and largely believe technicals are self fulfilling prophecies which even-out in the long term, for buy and hold types. I simply buy at large dips for as long as I believe in the company (& have spare cash).
I feel - and am interested in your POV - that we're in a rare moment for AAPL.
While we're near all time highs, we're also at what should be a low point for the stock: mid summer, boring quarter, months before the next iPhone. But the typical "correction" you'd expect for this period has been really mild, while we're entering a period when within weeks where we'll soon start seeing a run up for the next iPhone excitement.
But it's no normal iPhone cycle - as we all know. A lot of signs point to a lot of upgraders coming (delays aside). On top of that, even if it wasn't a "super-cycle" period, there're additional factors that lead to the feeling of an impending groundswell - example being AR Kit is a far bigger deal than most realize, as not just a whizbang feature, but something that has the requisite sizzle PLUS a lot of real world applicable value. And it's a true (& eye catching) differentiator that the other platforms are lagging far behind on.
This ignores homepod, airpod, increasing watch success, upcoming Mac pros, Apple Pay acceleration, and more pipeline rumors than we've heard in a long time - let alone repatriation.
What I'm getting at is that in my 20 years of being a serious Apple investor, this feels like a rare moment of minimal downside risk, with significant upside - I feel it's impossible to not see 180 this year.
Some people think it's all baked in, but as a long time follower, my Spidey senses are tingling.
I wanted to ask if any of you very-longs feel similarly.
Thanks
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Post by sponge on Jul 22, 2017 19:45:47 GMT -8
Apple will be fine regardless of any short term correction.
I am more concerned about overall market. The GS note was not referring to Apple but overall market rise. The hope for tax reform helped drive the market up. If we get a similar concern again over tax cuts and lack of progress, the market will correct and take us down.
The excitement over the new iPhone can be drowned out with the budget showdown come Oct.
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Post by appledoc on Jul 23, 2017 3:12:58 GMT -8
Hey gang, Im wondering the opinions of people who've been long AAPL for a long time (like me), and are familiar enough with patterns since the meteoric rise. The short/intermediate-term technicals look good. Despite spending most of June and half of July below SMA50, we appear to have reclaimed it. We held 142 in July even though the chart was giving the appearance of a head and shoulders pattern. Even during the summer doldrums, the market still seems to have a healthy appetite for the stock. I think sentiment is strong because of the expectations surrounding the iPhone 8. Three things that could hit us hard though. 1. Broad market selloff. I'll believe it when I see it. Naysayers have missed out this bull market for almost a decade now. The market clearly wants to keep going up. 2. iPhone 8 delays. Hopefully we get 1-2 weeks of sales in September like we always do. If not, expect to get crushed upon the news. 3. Holiday iPhone mix. It will be interesting to see what the mix is this fall/winter. We're talking about a $1000+ iPhone 8 that's going to be released alongside a new iPhone 7s that should be a couple hundred bucks cheaper. And don't forget you'll have a one-year old iPhone 7 that's going to be $500-$600. I'm still using an iPhone 6 because it still works well. Haven't decided what I'm going to get this fall, but it's going to be a tough sell on the 8 when I can potentially get the 7 for $500 cheaper. All things considered, I'm staying pat here at my 145 entry point.
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Post by tuffett on Jul 23, 2017 21:17:28 GMT -8
I encourage members to read both the article and Wiseyou's comment and I'd be interested to read your thoughts or agreement/disagreement with either. I'll disagree with this part: because it's simply not true. Nor is it true for the 5 year chart (if you're comparing against the NASDAQ). I'd be weary of someone so focused on how amazing AAPL is that he can't take 30 seconds and do some simple fact checking on the statements he makes. He would likely not see any signs of trouble if it hit him in the face. We have to face the facts. I am bullish on AAPL's future, but the fact is AAPL has been a market laggard for over 5 years (with much higher volatility). For all its success as a business, an investor would have been better off buying the index, or any FANG stock. Of course, those that bought decades ago don't really care, but not all of us are so lucky. I would have been much better off putting my money elsewhere. But going forward, I'm still betting largely on AAPL. What I'm getting at is that in my 20 years of being a serious Apple investor, this feels like a rare moment of minimal downside risk, with significant upside - I feel it's impossible to not see 180 this year. Company-specific downside risk is probably minimal, unless there is indeed a significant delay. Market-wide downside risk is huge, in my opinion. I wouldn't get too complacent.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jul 23, 2017 22:07:09 GMT -8
I have given up on fundamentals and technicals. They were both solid when we dropped from 700 to 385 and they were both solid when we dropped from 130 to 90. The only pattern that I have seen since 2006 is the herd. When I mortgaged the house and bought AAPL with it, I didn't know if it would continue to drop or turn around and I didn't really care. I knew that sometime in the next 7 years it would be a lot higher and that has happened. Every time I trusted my spidey sense, I was dead wrong
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