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Post by bloodylongaapl on Nov 21, 2012 16:27:24 GMT -8
"The rest" - car and television, there really isn't an iPhone/iPad-sized opportunity there. Apple typically only jumps into a market with gusto and a solid market strategy (of course, "watch this space" with Apple's perpetual hobby). Actually my growing belief is that iOS devices - iPod, iPhone, iPad - ARE the auto and tv opportunity. Think about it. As devices become ever more powerful, incorporating Siri and Maps for auto, and Apps and Airplay for TV, where is the need for additional devices? No, instead the iOS device in your pocket will power everything everywhere, making it indispensable, and making the iOS business self-sustaining without the continual need for "What's next?". We could soon be looking at a 300-500m unit annual iOS device business just on life cycle refresh. Apple has to mature at some point, it cannot continue to be the "worlds biggest startup". It will need a stable cash cow. I think this could be it, it could be the blueprint SJ left behind. EDIT: And add all the functions Red mentioned. The key is making the iOS device indispensable, and that comes by developing it to penetrate ever deeper into people's lives. Not additional devices. Additional functions in the personal device.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2012 16:39:19 GMT -8
The Eyes Free initiative will help the car space. Television - Agreed that Apple is already hedging in impressive fashion. Apple TV IS happening, if the stars can sufficiently align - this should be clear between Steve's comments in the biography and Tim Cook going on and on quarter after quarter about seeing where the string from Apple TV leads the company. It leads straight to a prototype. Btw, that "recurring revenue" you describe is also why I say, "why not IBM?" as a type of future for Apple longer-term (not exact, but you get my drift). Personal, mobile, ultra mobile, pocketable, cloud-connected - what more is there aside from form factors? Critical mass for your company is a powerful thing to have, and "domination" in the monopolistic market share sense is not required to do well. Unless you think Disney and IBM and Costco etc. dominate, in which case I say Apple must be included in that conversation.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Nov 21, 2012 16:49:09 GMT -8
But no one outside of speculation says Apple TV will ever be a set. It is a function, a service, not necessarily a big screen.
My vision of the iOS device as the indispensable personal everything is intoxicating. Indulge me, add up all the pieces in that context, think five years out, and you'll see what I mean. It is HUUUUUUGE.
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Post by Zeke on Nov 21, 2012 17:10:10 GMT -8
I, for one, am happy to hear all opinions, even negative ones. They even out, for me, all the fan boy analysts with their $1000 stock price within a year. Negative opinions that are true are not FUD. This has been an almost $200 price drop in 2 months. And, the company has "missed" analysts expectations for 3 recent earnings reports. And, there are production problems or whatever for its most popular products. Who really knows what's going on with this company? Nice to have a touch of reality....and some caution going forward. Reality would be based on facts, not wishful thinking and made-up scenarios. Yes, there's been a $200 price drop. Why? Well, there's this thing called the fiscal cliff, or alternatively "taxmageddon". Here's a description of capital gains tax law right now: As of 01/01/2013, if no compromise is reached they will look like this: Now, if I'm an investor sitting on let's say a $200 per share profit on 1000 shares on 09/01/2012 it would make sense for me to sell my shares and get taxed at 15% on the $200,000 ($30,000) rather than pay 20% ($40,000) after 01/01/2013. Why would I do this on 09/01/2012, or shortly thereafter? Because I want to buy the shares back eventually, but I want to avoid the sale/repurchase being a wash transaction by waiting more than 30 days to buy back in. So I want to wait to sell as long as I can in order to get a better handle on who might win the Whitehouse, but I want to sell as soon as possible so that I can wait 31 days and still not miss the 1st FQ run-up when I repurchase the shares. This is the biggest part of the selling pressure we've seen in the last 3 months. By 09/01/2012, most people with a pulse felt pretty sure Obama would win. Once the selling started there was a snowball effect driving the share price down steadily as more and more retail investors capitulated. Once we reached about $500/share we exhausted or wiped out most of those taxable profits for this year and the selling stopped. Now everyone is waiting to buy back in, and those who sold early are piling back in right now. As for analysts expectations being missed, they were missed by very small margins, whereas the analyst expectations have been 20% to 40% off for 10 years now. Missing wildly inaccurate analyst expectations by a percentage point or two means nothing. Apple has beaten its own guidance every quarter. It has had record sales and revenue every quarter YOY. Its current P/E is lower than some companies with no growth and no revenue. This makes absolutely no sense. All of the FUD you've mentioned is already dialed in to the share price as if it were fact, when it is obviously not. Now a word to both you and Wolverine. If you want to be taken seriously don't come here with nothing but conjecture in your pocket, and drop the term "fan boy", OK? We're basically Apple longs here because we understand the fundamentals of this company and most of us have made serious, life changing money by analyzing the stock ourselves. The people on AFB2 have been more right than the pros more often than not in their predictions. It's not that we won't accept negative commentary and analysis. It's just that it has to be based on real facts and real numbers.
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Post by Zeke on Nov 21, 2012 17:21:21 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 21, 2012 17:23:06 GMT -8
Nooooooooooooo!!!! Wolverine = Firestorm
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 21, 2012 17:25:47 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 21, 2012 17:26:35 GMT -8
I'm going to have nightmares tonight...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2012 17:27:02 GMT -8
Love a good smoked salmon for the holidays.
Happy thxgiving to redgewine wherever he is. And Gregg and yes, even nate.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 21, 2012 17:28:49 GMT -8
HAPPY THANKSGIVING to our AFB2 family!!!
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2012 17:31:11 GMT -8
From last page: Happy Turkey/Tofurkey Day!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 21, 2012 17:32:53 GMT -8
A few things I am thankful for this year:
1) That Apple is still the Company I always believed it to be.
2) That AAPL is still up nicely YTD
3) That Lovey took the initiative to find this new home, set it up and give all of us at AFB2 a place to hang our IP Addresses after the immolation of AFB.
4) That so many old friends have found their way here, sometimes by circuitous routes (I'm looking at you Mercel!)
5) That Mav isn't really Tom Cruise (I just could not handle that kind of revelation).
6) That my family has health (excellent) wealth (getting better thanks to Apple) and Happiness.
Best to you all on this Turkey Day.
Make it so.
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Post by Zeke on Nov 21, 2012 17:37:36 GMT -8
5) Energy management - See NEST above and then extrapolate out the myriad ways we can better manage lighting, heating, fuel utilization, determining the fastest and most effective routes to get from A to B..... I just spent 10 years on the development team for a large public utility prototyping, testing, and deploying 1 million smart meters within their service territory. This system reports usage every 15 minutes, 24/7. This not only allows customer profiling, but peak pricing and time of use rates, as well as load curtailment in times of shortage. If electricity is 50% of the daytime price between 8 pm and 4 am there will be a demand for smart systems and appliances that know when electricity is cheaper and schedule themselves to run at those times (spas, washer/dryers, etc.). Public utility commissions everywhere have jumped on this bandwagon because it has been demonstrated that a peak usage management program can be an alternative to building another $100M power plant. Since a new power plant is an investment that typically gets dialed into the local electric rates, it matters to a PUC whose job it is to keep rates reasonable.
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Post by Zeke on Nov 21, 2012 17:39:47 GMT -8
Love a good smoked salmon for the holidays. I've never been able to keep them lit.
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Post by Zeke on Nov 21, 2012 17:44:14 GMT -8
A few things I am thankful for this year: 1) That Apple is still the Company I always believed it to be. 2) That AAPL is still up nicely YTD 3) That Lovey took the initiative to find this new home, set it up and give all of us at AFB2 a place to hang our IP Addresses after the immolation of AFB. 4) That so many old friends have found their way here, sometimes by circuitous routes (I'm looking at you Mercel!) 5) That Mav isn't really Tom Cruise (I just could not handle that kind of revelation). 6) That my family has health (excellent) wealth (getting better thanks to Apple) and Happiness. Best to you all on this Turkey Day. Make it so. Aye, Cap'n! Yes, to all of that and thanks for this too:
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 17:47:59 GMT -8
Now a word to both you and Wolverine. If you want to be taken seriously don't come here with nothing but conjecture in your pocket, and drop the term "fan boy", OK? We're basically Apple longs here because we understand the fundamentals of this company and most of us have made serious, life changing money by analyzing the stock ourselves. The people on AFB2 have been more right than the pros more often than not in their predictions. It's not that we won't accept negative commentary and analysis. It's just that it has to be based on real facts and real numbers. +10.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 17:53:09 GMT -8
A few things I am thankful for this year: 1) That Apple is still the Company I always believed it to be. 2) That AAPL is still up nicely YTD 3) That Lovey took the initiative to find this new home, set it up and give all of us at AFB2 a place to hang our IP Addresses after the immolation of AFB. 4) That so many old friends have found their way here, sometimes by circuitous routes (I'm looking at you Mercel!) 5) That Mav isn't really Tom Cruise (I just could not handle that kind of revelation). 6) That my family has health (excellent) wealth (getting better thanks to Apple) and Happiness. Best to you all on this Turkey Day. Make it so. Except for #4, I like your list. But thanks and good to be baaaaack. As for AAPL, tell Scotty we need more power! P.S. I'm not worried in the least...
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Nov 21, 2012 17:59:54 GMT -8
Now, if I'm an investor sitting on let's say a $200 per share profit on 1000 shares on 09/01/2012 it would make sense for me to sell my shares and get taxed at 15% on the $200,000 ($30,000) rather than pay 20% ($40,000) after 01/01/2013. Why would I do this on 09/01/2012, or shortly thereafter? Because I want to buy the shares back eventually, but I want to avoid the sale/repurchase being a wash transaction by waiting more than 30 days to buy back in. So I want to wait to sell as long as I can in order to get a better handle on who might win the Whitehouse, but I want to sell as soon as possible so that I can wait 31 days and still not miss the 1st FQ run-up when I repurchase the shares. This is the biggest part of the selling pressure we've seen in the last 3 months. By 09/01/2012, most people with a pulse felt pretty sure Obama would win. Once the selling started there was a snowball effect driving the share price down steadily as more and more retail investors capitulated. Once we reached about $500/share we exhausted or wiped out most of those taxable profits for this year and the selling stopped. Now everyone is waiting to buy back in, and those who sold early are piling back in right now. Except that there is no concept (or law) of wash sale when taking gains. And everyone who was selling stock for long-term capital gains had only gains in this stock. So the whole thesis is incorrect (as we've discussed before). If you sell a stock for a gain, you may buy it back a second later and not suffer any ill tax effects, other than paying tax on the gain at current long-term capital gains taxes. Nobody has to "wait" to buy back in, other than those who purchased at 600-700 on the way down and decided to take the loss this year (which makes no sense at all taxwise, makes a lot more sense taking losses next year to offset higher rates). Also, under current law for 2013, the maximum long-term capital gains tax will be 23.8%, and maximum dividend tax will be 43.4% because the Obamacare medicare tax hits those for many people.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 18:04:28 GMT -8
Yes., there is no "Wash Gain" rule. If the investor removes the tax portion (15%) for payment of taxes April 15, then the reinvestment is less. But I don't think believe in this tax selling explanation. If it's happening, it's because investors don't know what they're doing, which isn't surprising.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 18:05:42 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 21, 2012 18:15:55 GMT -8
HSBC flash PMI came in at a 13 month high.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 21, 2012 18:17:32 GMT -8
The iPhone is selling as fast as they can deliver them. What more do you want, except for them to make them faster and with better margins? I am looking at the future, not the next few months. As far as I can see, Apple has created exquisite products for the present ... Uh yeah...because you can't see the future. Did you see the iPhone or iPad in 2002?
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Post by Zeke on Nov 21, 2012 18:19:40 GMT -8
Yes., there is no "Wash Gain" rule. If the investor removes the tax portion (15%) for payment of taxes April 15, then the reinvestment is less. But I don't think believe in this tax selling explanation. If it's happening, it's because investors don't know what they're doing, which isn't surprising. Sorry, the source I was reading did not differentiate between losses and gains, though their examples were all with losses now that I've gone back to read again. It's not something I keep up on since it doesn't apply to me. All of my AAPL is in IRAs, so all distributions are taxable as ordinary income. That still does not preclude tax selling as a reason for the drop in share price. People have made huge profits in Apple this year, and it's going to make a big difference in taxation on those profits if they take those profits out before the end of the year if no tax deal is reached.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 21, 2012 18:24:46 GMT -8
Happy Thanksgiving to old friends and new. Glad I found my way to the old Board and then to this Board. I'm thankful for all the encouragement, the insights, the sharing of knowledge, sharing of fear, roller coaster rides together, rocket ships blasting, rally monkeys, Snoopy dances, and all the wheeeee's .... it's a great witty bunch ... and I look forward to reading the posts everyday. Have a great Thanksgiving tomorrow ... enjoy your day!
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Post by roni on Nov 21, 2012 18:24:59 GMT -8
I suspect that many people who sell for tax reasons make mistakes. I read the other day that the last three tax increases ended up with the market higher 6 months later.
Also, the price of gasoline is down a bit over 50 cents a gallon here over the past 5-6 weeks. That should impove Thanksgiving and Christmas for some folks.
I am not sure that growth in the US is slowing. I know I read that leading economic indicators were up in a recent report, and I believe the last GDP report beat the estimates, but I could be wrong on that. I know construction is picking up out here in Oregon.
As long as our elected peoples do not screw up the fiscal thing - and I don't believe it is a cliff - that is overblown, then I think we'll be all right. I do not, however, underestimate their ability to screw it up
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2012 18:28:07 GMT -8
HSBC flash PMI came in at a 13 month high. Wow. Apple might have a little to do with that?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2012 18:31:05 GMT -8
Count me among those that will somehow deal with selling my small core AAPL common stock to take advantage of more favorable LTCG rates for 2012 if I have to - and I'll rebuy the next nanosecond.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 21, 2012 18:36:36 GMT -8
See futures.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 21, 2012 19:20:29 GMT -8
A few things I am thankful for this year: 3) That Lovey took the initiative to find this new home, set it up and give all of us at AFB2 a place to hang our IP Addresses after the immolation of AFB. Best to you all on this Turkey Day. Red, this is something I am very thankful for. This group has in a short time become something to be proud of. Happy turkey day to all
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Post by macziggy on Nov 21, 2012 19:29:55 GMT -8
I, for one, am happy to hear all opinions, even negative ones. They even out, for me, all the fan boy analysts with their $1000 stock price within a year. Negative opinions that are true are not FUD. This has been an almost $200 price drop in 2 months. And, the company has "missed" analysts expectations for 3 recent earnings reports. And, there are production problems or whatever for its most popular products. Who really knows what's going on with this company? Nice to have a touch of reality....and some caution going forward. Reality would be based on facts, not wishful thinking and made-up scenarios. Yes, there's been a $200 price drop. Why? Well, there's this thing called the fiscal cliff, or alternatively "taxmageddon". Here's a description of capital gains tax law right now: As of 01/01/2013, if no compromise is reached they will look like this: Now, if I'm an investor sitting on let's say a $200 per share profit on 1000 shares on 09/01/2012 it would make sense for me to sell my shares and get taxed at 15% on the $200,000 ($30,000) rather than pay 20% ($40,000) after 01/01/2013. Why would I do this on 09/01/2012, or shortly thereafter? Because I want to buy the shares back eventually, but I want to avoid the sale/repurchase being a wash transaction by waiting more than 30 days to buy back in. So I want to wait to sell as long as I can in order to get a better handle on who might win the Whitehouse, but I want to sell as soon as possible so that I can wait 31 days and still not miss the 1st FQ run-up when I repurchase the shares. This is the biggest part of the selling pressure we've seen in the last 3 months. By 09/01/2012, most people with a pulse felt pretty sure Obama would win. Once the selling started there was a snowball effect driving the share price down steadily as more and more retail investors capitulated. Once we reached about $500/share we exhausted or wiped out most of those taxable profits for this year and the selling stopped. Now everyone is waiting to buy back in, and those who sold early are piling back in right now. As for analysts expectations being missed, they were missed by very small margins, whereas the analyst expectations have been 20% to 40% off for 10 years now. Missing wildly inaccurate analyst expectations by a percentage point or two means nothing. Apple has beaten its own guidance every quarter. It has had record sales and revenue every quarter YOY. Its current P/E is lower than some companies with no growth and no revenue. This makes absolutely no sense. All of the FUD you've mentioned is already dialed in to the share price as if it were fact, when it is obviously not. Now a word to both you and Wolverine. If you want to be taken seriously don't come here with nothing but conjecture in your pocket, and drop the term "fan boy", OK? We're basically Apple longs here because we understand the fundamentals of this company and most of us have made serious, life changing money by analyzing the stock ourselves. The people on AFB2 have been more right than the pros more often than not in their predictions. It's not that we won't accept negative commentary and analysis. It's just that it has to be based on real facts and real numbers. WOW, now that was something that I didn't deserve. Feel better? I promise never to do that again. :-) Been long AAPL since 2005. I have used over 100 Apple products since 1988--transmitting pictures to mags and newspapers all over the world--China, Russia, Peru, Tibet, you name it-- my Apple laptops and I have been probably there or close. So, I consider myself a huge "Apple fan girl." But a realistic one. Still....love, love, love Apple! On a different note: Just found out I'm shooting the Notre Dame/USC game on Saturday....WooooHooooo!! Celebration!!! Haven't shot that classic match-up since Carson Palmer was the USC quarterback. Fun Fun Fun And......Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!
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