JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 21, 2012 19:40:18 GMT -8
Oh great googly moogly, this so much FUD. The iPhone is on less than 40% of the carriers worlwide notably China Mobile. Low presence in India where demand is high on the gray market. Low in Russia and South America. Our own government is replacing Blackberries with iPhones because Android is one big pile of security holes. The tablet market is in its infancy and Apple will obtain a significant market share in the huge market. As mentioned above Apple's US enterprise market increased drastically as their competitors shrunk. Just with current products Apple will more than double their sales and no one outside of Apple knows what is being developed inside Apple's R&D. You should have called that radio station and corrected them, they are wrong. If you are going to project the demise of Apple's growth at least cite some real information rather than a couple of random radio hosts. You have failed to cite one valid reason for your faith-based belief in Apple's future growth. I was asking for speculation about what industries Apple may enter, and all I see from you is a reiteration of what Apple has already done. Think of the future, not the past. And explain to me why FUD is necessarily wrong. Right now, only two companies are making any money on the apocalyptic (for PC's and PC-based businesses) disruption known as "mobile:" Apple - which caused this disruption with smartphones and tablets - and Samsung. And Apple's margins are twice Samsung's, and Apple has led in customer satisfaction and loyalty rankings for like a decade, and has yet to even address half of its potential market. China Mobile alone has more subscribers than the US has people. India is another 650M people. Any other player has yet to prove it can make money on mobile, whether software, hardware, or advertising. So who has the faith-based beliefs? Those who believe the company that caused and monetized mobile will continue to thrive? Or those who believe that companies which haven't done shit to date are the ones to bet on? If anything, Google and Amazon and Microsoft have proven that entering this mobile market isn't as easy as radio talk show hosts make it sound. And BTW, this "innovation died with Steve Jobs" canard is such bullshit. Last time I checked, Jony Ive was the guy who invented most of Apple's hardware. Jobs main "job" was to say no, and make sure the ones he said yes to were perfect. And even Jobs got it wrong now and again. So yeah, I think a minimum rule we should have here is actually naming the FUD-spreaders, so we can look up their other claims, biases, and qualifications, before we run around like Chicken Littles to rebut their musings.
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Post by rickag on Nov 21, 2012 19:44:30 GMT -8
You have failed to cite one valid reason for your faith-based belief in Apple's future growth. I was asking for speculation about what industries Apple may enter, and all I see from you is a reiteration of what Apple has already done. Think of the future, not the past. And explain to me why FUD is necessarily wrong. You said,"there may be a relatively quick erosion in share price from here. If Apple cannot dominate with new products, the current P/E is probably a good sign that sales and profits will decline, as will share price." I called FUD. I did give you facts reread the post.
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Post by macziggy on Nov 21, 2012 20:00:45 GMT -8
Oh and...I actually photographed the Apple CEO at the time, John Sculley, around 1988 or so, with my 4x5 camera juggling apples (red delicious) for a magazine shoot. I, of course, brought the apples along. He was quite gracious in juggling the apples for me and it made a wonderful photograph....smiling, really funny!
Somehow, I doubt Steve Jobs would have ever juggled apples for anyone!! Unfortunately, never had the opportunity to even ask.
I'm definitely a fangirl!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 21, 2012 20:12:07 GMT -8
555-559.99
Stk Calls Puts 540 3,456 6,750 545 2,803 6,777 550 8,284 13,130 555 6,466 11,387 560 9,620 8,924 565 10,231 4,674 570 10,304 2,300 575 8,626 950 580 8,101 941
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 21, 2012 20:30:14 GMT -8
AAPL now has 5 different weeklys open + 1 December monthly. I weekly opened today. It appears weeklys will now open 5 weeks from the closing date. The weekly that opened today has 37 days left. Another peculiar note. The weekly that opened today has 27% volatility compared to the December monthly that closes 7 days earlier that has 32% volatility. That suggests to me that the weekly opened today is a better value than the Monthly. OR, it may also mean sentiment is not positive for AAPL currently.
What do you think?Am puzzle about the implications on the new weekly. I would guess maybe the extra week might give a better read on xmas sales.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2012 20:35:49 GMT -8
Those weeklies will confuse matters for a while. What're the options (literally) now? Something like 1-5 weeks to choose from?
Far as the new weekly, the Dec option's been around for a while. The weekly just started trading. Not comparable.
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Post by ibuyer on Nov 21, 2012 20:55:03 GMT -8
Those weeklies will confuse matters for a while. What're the options (literally) now? Something like 1-5 weeks to choose from? Far as the new weekly, the Dec option's been around for a while. The weekly just started trading. Not comparable. Next five Fridays - rolling weekly One implication is that i think people manage events much more and maybe OI will not matter as much because people will manage them as spread much more. e.g. via diagonals and calender spreads. Second implication, I think there will be a lot of covered calls theta trades going on. wonder if there vxapl will be affected. Happy TG, Mav and everyone!
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Nov 21, 2012 20:56:16 GMT -8
You DO realize that price targets of Wall Street firms average $760 in 12 months. The key point that rebuts your premise is this: Apple doesn't have to dominate the market segments to capture both sales and profit growth, particularly with the iPhone. Nonetheless, with your thinking you should be shorting AAPL. Good luck with that! You are giving too much credit to Wall Street in any event. And if their perception WAS as you describe it, price targets would not scale to the median $760 price target. Analyst price targets for AAPL have been overly optimistic for several years now, and are rarely approached. The iPhone will continue to grow in sales over the short term, but its market share will continue to erode. Same with iPad. As for shorting AAPL, I don't think this is the time, but thinking long-term I just might do exactly that. This board got a shot across the bow with the last earnings, yet the rah-rah continues. BTW, I am only throwing out ideas to discuss, not necessarily challenging the widespread faith-based belief in AAPL. And, yes, as a Mac user since 1987 and an AAPL owner since 1998, I am starting to lose the faith. The importance of Jobs to the company cannot be understated, and it remains to be seen if anyone inside the company can replace that once-in-a-century icon. My faith in the company is as strong as ever. The substantial cap ex investments to (hopefully) meet the demand in the next two quarters for the strongest product lineup they have ever had says to me that they maintain the proper perspective. It has sometimes been expressed by observers as "not caring about the stock price," but I would add "in the short term" to that statement. And as an ops god, Mr. Cook understands as well as anyone that execution on the scale at which they currently operate requires planning and investment that span timescales incompatible with the ever-shrinking time frames that characterize modern markets, both in news dissemination and trade execuction. I also read his willingness to address the Forstall situation as acceptance of possible short term perturbations in favor of longer term strength, drawing on the depth of his team to maintain the long term vision while adjusting to change in the short term.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 21, 2012 20:59:35 GMT -8
To put it out there again, Forstall gets credit for the iOS spark, but it's been in need of a good shake-up recently. The Maps interface is second to none - accuracy and clarity is wanting. Siri needs to evolve to respond to inputs faster, and to for crying out loud, start going offline for functions on the level that my non-Net-connected Macs have been able to do since OS 9 or something. Time for Dr. Cue to check up on those patients.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 21:32:35 GMT -8
Here's a little something I found on iWorks development. As I said, a little something...
Originally iCloud was believed to be holding it up, but Apple released iCloud on October 4, so that's not it.
A theory being floated on the Apple discussion boards is that iWork '11 was being re-written to be 64-bit native and Apple "ran into some significant issues with existing 64-bit-able hardware base" so they're downgrading it to 32-bit.
One of my favorite rumors is that iWork '12 will come with a Final Cut Pro X-style reboot. It apparently started when AppleBitch discovered an Apple job opening for a Senior User Interface Designer that would "rework the iWork suite on both Mac and iOS devices."
Whatever the reason, Apple needs to ship it soon. Seemless iCloud integration is practically a given but I'm sure that Apple has some other snazzy features up its sleeve, too.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 21:36:28 GMT -8
Oh and...I actually photographed the Apple CEO at the time, John Sculley, around 1988 or so, with my 4x5 camera juggling apples (red delicious) for a magazine shoot. I, of course, brought the apples along. He was quite gracious in juggling the apples for me and it made a wonderful photograph....smiling, really funny! Somehow, I doubt Steve Jobs would have ever juggled apples for anyone!! Unfortunately, never had the opportunity to even ask. I'm definitely a fangirl! Would like to see the photo if you care to share.
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Post by prazan on Nov 21, 2012 21:36:51 GMT -8
Oh and...I actually photographed the Apple CEO at the time, John Sculley, around 1988 or so, with my 4x5 camera juggling apples (red delicious) for a magazine shoot. I, of course, brought the apples along. He was quite gracious in juggling the apples for me and it made a wonderful photograph....smiling, really funny! Somehow, I doubt Steve Jobs would have ever juggled apples for anyone!! Unfortunately, never had the opportunity to even ask. I'm definitely a fangirl! You wandered into somebody else's ambush, I think. Magazine shoots make fascinating work, maybe best captured in "Lost in Translation."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2012 21:53:34 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 21, 2012 21:59:16 GMT -8
Yes, all those cool features were in the Galaxy Note 1, didn't you notice?
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Post by macziggy on Nov 22, 2012 0:41:04 GMT -8
Oh and...I actually photographed the Apple CEO at the time, John Sculley, around 1988 or so, with my 4x5 camera juggling apples (red delicious) for a magazine shoot. I, of course, brought the apples along. He was quite gracious in juggling the apples for me and it made a wonderful photograph....smiling, really funny! Somehow, I doubt Steve Jobs would have ever juggled apples for anyone!! Unfortunately, never had the opportunity to even ask. I'm definitely a fangirl! Would like to see the photo if you care to share. Will gladly post some of the photos after the weekend. They are in my transparency archive.
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Post by macziggy on Nov 22, 2012 0:42:17 GMT -8
Oh and...I actually photographed the Apple CEO at the time, John Sculley, around 1988 or so, with my 4x5 camera juggling apples (red delicious) for a magazine shoot. I, of course, brought the apples along. He was quite gracious in juggling the apples for me and it made a wonderful photograph....smiling, really funny! Somehow, I doubt Steve Jobs would have ever juggled apples for anyone!! Unfortunately, never had the opportunity to even ask. I'm definitely a fangirl! You wandered into somebody else's ambush, I think. Magazine shoots make fascinating work, maybe best captured in "Lost in Translation." Thank you. Hysterical. Yes!
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Post by Lstream on Nov 22, 2012 5:20:47 GMT -8
Now a word to both you and Wolverine. If you want to be taken seriously don't come here with nothing but conjecture in your pocket, and drop the term "fan boy", OK? We're basically Apple longs here because we understand the fundamentals of this company and most of us have made serious, life changing money by analyzing the stock ourselves. The people on AFB2 have been more right than the pros more often than not in their predictions. It's not that we won't accept negative commentary and analysis. It's just that it has to be based on real facts and real numbers. Agreed. People whose debating and logic skills require the use of the dreaded "fanboy" insult, are not worth the time of day. Grow up or go away.
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 22, 2012 8:30:01 GMT -8
Except that there is no concept (or law) of wash sale when taking gains. And everyone who was selling stock for long-term capital gains had only gains in this stock. So the whole thesis is incorrect (as we've discussed before). If you sell a stock for a gain, you may buy it back a second later and not suffer any ill tax effects, other than paying tax on the gain at current long-term capital gains taxes. True and that is what I did last week with my taxable holdings purchased back around $42 a share. I did wait a few days before repurchasing, however, many may be holding back the repurchase until a firm uptrend is in place. For me, the hard part is the initial selling. Waiting for a confirmed uptrend before repurchasing may be what many are doing. Just my opinion.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2012 12:08:27 GMT -8
Yes, all those cool features were in the Galaxy Note 1, didn't you notice? AND as recent as a month ago, my AT&T store was selling it with the Gingerbread OS! Unbelievable that customers are so clueless on what they're buying. If they were buying a car today, the same customers would probably be willing to buy it with tires that needed tubes.
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