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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2012 10:04:16 GMT -8
We're getting awfully close to Avi's 589/592 target level. Pffffft. ;D
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Post by appledoc on Nov 26, 2012 10:05:53 GMT -8
200 day SMA is 597 and the 200 day EMA is 573 based on the charts I use. So we exploded through the EMA with ease. See what happens when we get the 590-600 territory. I have a non-dividend adjusted 598.38 for the SMA200.
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Post by wolverine on Nov 26, 2012 10:06:37 GMT -8
Love the strength today, but now I have to look over my shoulder at that gap at 572. UGH! I'm sure glad I don't carry the burden of knowing more TA or EW. For every short term TA and EW prediction, there's a more accurate, long term prediction. Which is another way of saying: Don't trade AAPL! Does anyone think AAPL won't make at least $800 by Sept. 2013? That is not much of a percentage rise over the previous ATH, compared to what we have become accustomed to over similar time periods.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 26, 2012 10:08:49 GMT -8
Hell yes trade AAPL! (If you're an options trader) 700 >> 500 was no joke. For traders, you HAVE to be nimble. Even if you don't trade that often, you need to know around when the trade needs to be sold or hedged and be ready for it (stop limits, conditional orders, dial in now and then with price alerts, etc)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 26, 2012 10:10:20 GMT -8
We're getting awfully close to Avi's 589/592 target level. Pffffft. ;D Btw: Technicals helped influence my BUY decision on Friday. Open mind! As for EW, no comment. . Still way too confusing.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2012 10:14:10 GMT -8
Hell yes trade AAPL! (If you're an options trader) 700 >> 500 was no joke. For traders, you HAVE to be nimble. Even if you don't trade that often, you need to know around when the trade needs to be sold or hedged and be ready for it (stop limits, conditional orders, dial in now and then with price alerts, etc) Action Alerts Plus ? ;D If you're into short term options, good luck is all I can say. Weeklies are just plain gambling.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2012 10:17:03 GMT -8
I'm sure glad I don't carry the burden of knowing more TA or EW. For every short term TA and EW prediction, there's a more accurate, long term prediction. Which is another way of saying: Don't trade AAPL! Does anyone think AAPL won't make at least $800 by Sept. 2013? That is not much of a percentage rise over the previous ATH, compared to what we have become accustomed to over similar time periods. You can always be counted on for the negative spin... $800 may not sound like much to you, but it will mean 8 figures for some.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 26, 2012 10:22:11 GMT -8
Heh. No, more the Non-Advice Advice Trading Newsletter(tm).
Why not trade Mar? Jul? Even Oct/Jan 14?
Ask iPad if you don't believe me. Tactical trading can work, though mine isn't so great.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 26, 2012 10:23:57 GMT -8
Hell yes trade AAPL! (If you're an options trader) 700 >> 500 was no joke. For traders, you HAVE to be nimble. Even if you don't trade that often, you need to know around when the trade needs to be sold or hedged and be ready for it (stop limits, conditional orders, dial in now and then with price alerts, etc) Action Alerts Plus ? ;D If you're into short term options, good luck is all I can say. Weeklies are just plain gambling. Only on days like the 16th would I ever consider trading weeklies again. I wish I hadn't been occupied all day. Risk versus reward was so unbalanced. I've never been more sure of our short term trend than in the first few minutes after we hit 505.
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Post by wolverine on Nov 26, 2012 10:25:37 GMT -8
That is not much of a percentage rise over the previous ATH, compared to what we have become accustomed to over similar time periods. You can always be counted on for the negative spin... Percentages are how most of us make money, but if you are happy with say 1% of $1,000,000, rather than 40%, so be it. My "job" here is to be a force for balance.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 26, 2012 10:25:46 GMT -8
Does anyone think AAPL won't make at least $800 by Sept. 2013? It's all a probability guesstimate thing, even from something considered a "sure thing". Given how AAPL has behaved over the past few years, I wouldn't be surprised with a low point in the fall, and it could be in September as it was in 2010. If the fall were as hard as the one we just experienced, that would mean AAPL would have to top out at $1k or above beforehand. $800 is a 36% increase from the current $588, in 9.5 months (assuming you are talking about sept expiration). Personally, I'd give at least a 20% chance that AAPL won't be at least $800 at sept 2013 expiration. So then it becomes a risk/reward and asset allocation issue. I wouldn't put everything I had into a Sept 790/800, but while sept's aren't showing up on Yahoo yet you could get a Oct 790/800 for about $1.3. That would be a massive 669% gain if it worked out. So the question is asset allocation, which depends on your conviction. Personally, after taking some massive hits over the years, I'm happy with around 100% returns that are much more likely, and so bought Oct 570-590's a few weeks ago for 9.5. Much lower risk, and much lower return, but still more than enough to pay the bills, even with Mr O's expected higher tax rates. Shooting for the moon is great when it works out or when the stakes are low. While I'd currently give an 80% chance of seeing $800 by September expiration, I'm not going to bet a few houses on it even if the payoff is much more likely than a Lotto ticket hitting.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 26, 2012 10:26:28 GMT -8
Only on days like the 16th would I ever consider trading weeklies again. I wish I hadn't been occupied all day. Risk versus reward was so unbalanced. I've never been more sure of our short term trend than in the first few minutes after we hit 505. Yeah, that was a miserable to day to be sitting around with no funds available to use. (What a time for a large payment that is due to me to be slow in coming. Oh man.)
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 26, 2012 10:29:17 GMT -8
Spoiler alert: CNBC is doing a segment on ND Football...so if you are still upset about where your team is or should I say, is not, then don't watch it!
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Post by appledoc on Nov 26, 2012 10:30:07 GMT -8
I see $800 by the end of May. Why? Absolute blowout Q2 on the back of the Chinese New Year and iPhone 5 and iPad mini supply chains at full capacity.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 26, 2012 10:30:36 GMT -8
200 day SMA is 597 and the 200 day EMA is 573 based on the charts I use. So we exploded through the EMA with ease. See what happens when we get the 590-600 territory. Yours are not divy adjusted. I am showing 594.27 for 200 SMA and 575.19 for EMA I think we are getting close to running out of gas.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 26, 2012 10:32:07 GMT -8
Yeah, that was a miserable to day to be sitting around with no funds available to use. (What a time for a large payment that is due to me to be slow in coming. Oh man.) It's always easy to look back and say shoulda woulda coulda. But you also don't have to hit the bottom exactly. Even here at 588 is much below the 630 bottom many of us thought AAPL was putting in back then. I was a little too quick to buy most of my purchases on this dip.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 26, 2012 10:32:46 GMT -8
Only on days like the 16th would I ever consider trading weeklies again. I wish I hadn't been occupied all day. Risk versus reward was so unbalanced. I've never been more sure of our short term trend than in the first few minutes after we hit 505. Yeah, that was a miserable to day to be sitting around with no funds available to use. (What a time for a large payment that is due to me to be slow in coming. Oh man.) It happens. I sold 1/10 of my commons on the 15th to have more cash ready for the move up. My commons and options are in different accounts, so by time the trade was finalized and I transferred the money, we were already at 560.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 26, 2012 10:33:18 GMT -8
Love the strength today, but now I have to look over my shoulder at that gap at 572. UGH! I'm sure glad I don't carry the burden of knowing more TA or EW. For every short term TA and EW prediction, there's a more accurate, long term prediction. Which is another way of saying: Don't trade AAPL! Does anyone think AAPL won't make at least $800 by Sept. 2013? Carnac, 800 by Sept is nice, but I have had some serious portfolio damage, April would be much appreciated.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 26, 2012 10:38:06 GMT -8
Actually, this WOULD be a time to be short-term cautious as a technical trader. SMA-200 @ low 590s is worth watching.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 26, 2012 10:43:07 GMT -8
We're up on a down day for the NASDAQ & the DOW. Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee for relative strength!!!!!!!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2012 10:44:51 GMT -8
You can always be counted on for the negative spin... Percentages are how most of us make money, but if you are happy with say 1% of $1,000,000, rather than 40%, so be it. My "job" here is to be a force for balance. Huh? $800 is a 37% rise over today's $580. Your assumption is wrong, that all of us holding at $705 didn't average cost down.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2012 10:46:16 GMT -8
Carnac, 800 by Sept is nice, but I have had some serious portfolio damage, April would be much appreciated. Ok. I'll see what I can do for you. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 26, 2012 10:47:00 GMT -8
Donations? You're awesome, Mercel. Incantations to get AAPL to 800 would also work.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 26, 2012 10:50:01 GMT -8
Interesting ... but the way I read the last few paragraphs, it sounds like he expects a double bottom around 500 before going to ATH. It's always IF/THEN. Note: over 592 invalidates that thesis.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 26, 2012 10:56:35 GMT -8
Upcoming event: 21" iMac is still scheduled to be available in "November". A new wave of customers to the store, including me.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2012 11:01:53 GMT -8
Upcoming event: 21" iMac is still scheduled to be available in "November". A new wave of customers to the store, including me. It IS this November right? I'm anxious to see it in the Apple store...four days left in November 2012...
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 26, 2012 11:02:47 GMT -8
Actually, this WOULD be a time to be short-term cautious as a technical trader. SMA-200 @ low 590s is worth watching. +1 Should be a battle here...let's see how it plays out... Also, never thought I'd say this, but... Mav's technical reads almost always (closer to always) have my stamp of approval these days!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2012 11:04:25 GMT -8
Interesting ... but the way I read the last few paragraphs, it sounds like he expects a double bottom around 500 before going to ATH. It's always IF/THEN. Note: over 592 invalidates that thesis. Thanks for the clarification Lovey. Ok everyone, you know what you have to do, BUY AAPL TO HURDLE $592. Because as you know, I also have a seance scheduled on top of Avi's EW incantations ;D
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Post by Deleted on Nov 26, 2012 11:05:03 GMT -8
Nice day!
What is the resistance at 589? Is that a significant level for any reason?
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 26, 2012 11:08:04 GMT -8
Mercel, I will lure you over to the Dark Side one of these days... Resist all you want... Mav's case study shows me IT CAN BE DONE! Muahahahahaha <------ evil laugh
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