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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 27, 2012 9:59:37 GMT -8
IMHO, we're in a situation where short squeezes can *potentially* ignite positive feedback loops. Shorts pile in at resistance... add a timely injection of capital, knock out their stops (market orders to buy), add bulls and momo traders chasing = up, up, up
Everyone's expecting a pullback...but no one knows where (from what level) it will happen...
Me, I'm just going to sit back and watch. I unloaded that last batch of stuff I bought at 510 (with my last nickels), replenishing the cash reserves; and that's it for my risk management. Unless I see something ominous in the technicals, I'm keeping everything else until we see ATHs... and my WAG for that is JAN'13.
Oh, and I have cheap SPY JAN'13 130/135 bear put spreads for End-of-the-World-Yet-Again Insurance.
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Post by rob_london on Nov 27, 2012 10:12:38 GMT -8
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Post by lance on Nov 27, 2012 10:13:17 GMT -8
www.cnbc.com/id/49966264This analyst told his clients to ease up and sell a third of their stash in AAPL back on Nov 1 saying apple could go through 500. On Nov 1 AAPL closed at $596.54. Conviently he returns reiterate his sell when aapl is about to approach the price he sold at. Face facts AAPL has reversed and everyone knows we have probably seen the low for the rest of the year come and go at 505. When you have a 11.5% rebound in basically 1 day of trading the dip is over.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Nov 27, 2012 10:13:22 GMT -8
Like Amazon, Google makes more money by selling less hardware... “We are bullish on Google, but still have not seen the device that makes us bullish on its Nexus hardware,” he writes. “We are lowering our Nexus revenue estimates, but raising our EPS estimates as margins should improve from less hardware in the mix.” Let me underline that point: Google actually loses money on the Nexus 7 hardware, so the fewer tablets it sells…the more money it makes. Ergo, Wilson trimmed his revenue estimates for both this year and next year, but inched up his EPS estimates. www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/11/27/google-pac-crest-says-nexus-sales-light-which-boosts-eps/
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 10:15:21 GMT -8
I don't know if this was the cause, but AAPL jumped $4 just after speculation on the possibility of a special dividend on Fast Money was discussed. Again, this would be devastating to Apple shareholders in the long run and only benefit a few large shareholders. Taking that cash and buying back shares with it would really light a fire under the stock. If they do it after the first f the year it would really be penal. If they do it now the stock would have support up until the payment, but once the special dividend was paid out the stock would fall like a rock. This scares the heck out of me.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 27, 2012 10:17:13 GMT -8
I like this part: "Cue, who started his career at Apple in the company’s internal information-technology department, became a close confidant of Jobs. As head of iTunes, he spearheaded many of the negotiations with music, television and movie companies. He’s also leading the company’s effort to add more video content for a potential new television product, people familiar with the internal deliberations said earlier this year." That's a bit of a relief, after hearing from all the FUD-sters about SJ doing this work, and how TC does not have the chops for this.
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Post by rickag on Nov 27, 2012 10:21:19 GMT -8
I probably did something stupid, but Avi's Elliot Wave analysis convinced me to pull some cash out of my 3 Jan 13 610/640 BCSs. I bought back the 640 shorts and sold 620s to create 3 Jan 13 610/620 BCSs. This gave me ~$1488 net after the fees. The original spread cost was ~$2628, so the 3 Jan 13 610/620 BCSs cost me ~$1140. I feel better, safer BCS plus some cash if Avi's worst case scenario happens. When AAPL shoots up another 3% today, making my trade look stupid you all can thank me. Consider putting *some* of the proceeds into JAN'14 800/850s... Lovemyipad, thank you for the response. This sounds good, however, I already have 4 Jan 14 760/800 BCSs. If I buy 2 Jan 14 800/850 BCSs, Trademonster will close 2 of the Jan 14 800 shorts, creating 2 Jan 14 760/850 BCSs. I paid ~$9.79 for the Jan 14 760/800 so @ about $6.40 for the Jan 14 800/850 my cost basis for the newly created Jan 14 760/850 would be $16.19. The current mark for a Jan 14 760/850 is about $13.40. I do already have 14 Jan 14 835/850s I might add to or consider some other long strike other than $800, say a $790/$850 or $790/$840. My head hurts, my aged brain cells are throbbing.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 10:23:46 GMT -8
LOL, that old saying, less is more.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 27, 2012 10:30:17 GMT -8
I do already have 14 Jan 14 835/850s I might add to ... Like it.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Nov 27, 2012 10:39:13 GMT -8
IHS would be a hoot - but I'm not buying it just yet.
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Post by rickag on Nov 27, 2012 10:44:59 GMT -8
I do already have 14 Jan 14 835/850s I might add to ... Like it. Thank you. You got my buying juices going, then I remembered why I pulled cash out. I'm down to less than 10% cash from my original investment so I am restraining myself for any possible down waves and putting on the buying brakes.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 27, 2012 10:47:53 GMT -8
my feeling says we go climb up to test that 592 again today but I don't have any free funds to put my money where my mouth is. I guess I'll make a funnymoney bet on a weekly 590 call at 4.50 with a goal to sell at 7.00. Let's see how completely off I am once I post this. Although I do not share your optimism for today, I would not bet the other way. I am still in "along for the ride" mode. Still trying to recover from the crumbles. Looks like the $7.00 target hit while I was at lunch. I'm great at losing real money and making fake money! haha oh well it's a boost to my confidence i guess.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 27, 2012 10:49:14 GMT -8
Everyone's looking for a pullback. Do these things happen when everyone's looking for them? We'll see...
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 10:57:31 GMT -8
Everyone's looking for a pullback. Do these things happen when everyone's looking for them? We'll see... Seems to be a digesting day. After the monster bounce AAPL needs an energy drink.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 27, 2012 11:03:32 GMT -8
Everyone's looking for a pullback. Do these things happen when everyone's looking for them? We'll see... Shoulda bought earlier this morning, but now my Jan 14 order is just sitting there, waiting. "They" sure aren't negotiating much on the bid/ask spread, at least not with my order, whereas normally it goes through if just a bit above the midpoint.
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Post by Ultrarunner on Nov 27, 2012 11:08:39 GMT -8
Yes, good call terps. I did do some buying nearer today's bottom with some of the proceeds from yesterday...but not based on your prediction.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 11:16:37 GMT -8
LOL, now Yahoo has changed their 1 year target from yesterday of 706 to 757 today. Stupid internet.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 27, 2012 11:26:19 GMT -8
anyone know what just happened between 2:15-2:20 to cause the drop across the markets? I was in a meeting and not sure what happened
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 27, 2012 11:30:43 GMT -8
Shoulda bought earlier this morning, but now my Jan 14 order is just sitting there, waiting. "They" sure aren't negotiating much on the bid/ask spread, at least not with my order, whereas normally it goes through if just a bit above the midpoint. Finally! Bought some Jan 14 560/640 BCS's for 34. 135% potential, and a breakeven below 600. Full value at about 9.5% above the current price, and 10% below the ATH. So fairly safe. Not as risky and juicy as some like, but it's nice to have some safer triple digit potentials mixed in there with the riskier ones....though my riskiest '14's top out at 750.
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Post by terps530 on Nov 27, 2012 11:44:46 GMT -8
anyone know what just happened between 2:15-2:20 to cause the drop across the markets? I was in a meeting and not sure what happened Nvm cnbc just reported that the senate majority leader Harry Reed reported that little fiscal cliff progress has been made and thus the drop.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Nov 27, 2012 12:48:26 GMT -8
As an overseas commons holder - seconded. 35% tax burden on dividends here!
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Post by wheeles on Nov 27, 2012 13:05:02 GMT -8
Does anyone have link/date to when apple will be able to have mini contract options?? Could be big for someone like me who doesn't have enough capital to do spreads/sell calls and options Oh dear. Those will kill AAPL, or really mess up trading intraday as the MMs drag the price to where they want it at the close to make those daily options worthless. Then overnight you'll get all these gaps. It'll make swing trading even more necessary.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 13:10:34 GMT -8
Does anyone have link/date to when apple will be able to have mini contract options?? Could be big for someone like me who doesn't have enough capital to do spreads/sell calls and options Oh dear. Those will kill AAPL, or really mess up trading intraday as the MMs drag the price to where they want it at the close to make those daily options worthless. Then overnight you'll get all these gaps. It'll make swing trading even more necessary. Big bird, where have you been. Thought you might have ended up on someone's table last Thursday. ;D
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Post by wheeles on Nov 27, 2012 13:28:12 GMT -8
Big bird, where have you been. Thought you might have ended up on someone's table last Thursday. ;D Just taking a bit of a breather. Didn't have much to contribute. Still don't really. It's very difficult to have an objective take on things when the invisible hand puts its big thumb on the scales. Yesterday that thumb belonged to Citi. A 3.5% ramp when the rest of the market was down, was just plain crazy. Clearly an attempt to squeeze out the last of the shorts. The sad thing is that when you do that, a big drop usually follows as there's nobody there to cover into the fall, so all you have are sellers. We got a another attempted short squeeze intraday today at 12.38pm ET to tack on 5 bucks in 8 minutes. No doubt whoever kicked that off was happily fading it at the top. It's a shame that things have got so massively distorted and you can't just buy companies with good prospects. You have to put up with all this BS every day.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 27, 2012 14:02:28 GMT -8
Boy oh boy - all these talking heads really pushing for AAPL to pay a special div. Personally I think it would be a mistake. I think if they buy stock they send a message that it is an undervalued company. I hope they don't get sucked into this game.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 27, 2012 14:10:53 GMT -8
Phoebes, with the election over there have been several company's that have announced a special divvy. This is disgusting, raiding the coffers for the big guys. A company should always seek to provide security for its shareholders. Giving away the security blanket for a one time gain is short sighted. If you buy back shares you realize that forever. Plus to still can realize long term gains.
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 27, 2012 14:26:22 GMT -8
Phoebes, with the election over there have been several company's that have announced a special divvy. What the hell is the point? When I buy a stock, I invest in that company and its assets, including its cash. If I wanted some of my investment held in cash, I'd hold it in cash, not buy stock only to turn around and have it part of it essentially sold out from under me and returned to me as cash. Note: I understand perfectly well buying dividend-yielding stocks. It is specifically the notion of a one-time special dividend that leaves me saying WTF!
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 27, 2012 14:28:12 GMT -8
A special dividend is a payoff to key investors and shows a lack of imagination among the company.
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Post by PikesPique on Nov 27, 2012 14:28:33 GMT -8
Does anyone have link/date to when apple will be able to have mini contract options?? Could be big for someone like me who doesn't have enough capital to do spreads/sell calls and options Oh dear. Those will kill AAPL, or really mess up trading intraday as the MMs drag the price to where they want it at the close to make those daily options worthless. Then overnight you'll get all these gaps. It'll make swing trading even more necessary. These "mini" options are for smaller amounts of underlying shares per contract (10 vs. 100), not "daily" expirations. Not sure how or if that would screw with the intraday action.
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Post by appleiie on Nov 27, 2012 14:28:35 GMT -8
I think the special dividend is just forward paying the dividend that would be paid for 1Q2013. The reason, as always, is a tax advantage for the investor expecting taxable income over $250k next year who will be subject to a much higher tax on dividends. I doubt Apple would make such a politically foolish move for a CA corporation. They still have a lot more to gain from the international tax reforms that both the House and Obama are proposing.
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