jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Nov 30, 2012 12:23:15 GMT -8
Will we see a gap up today in the last ? minutes of Friday OE?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 30, 2012 12:27:22 GMT -8
my call of the close = $582.16 I reckon 579.97 with a possible dip below 579 just prior. 585 dead even looks like the draw to me, with 55k of volume on both the 590 calls and 585 puts today. Plus 59k on the 585 calls. I'm going with 584.92....and looking at purchasing a small ITM BCS with expiration next week or the following....especially if the stock drops a few more points
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Post by wheeles on Nov 30, 2012 12:43:31 GMT -8
Looks like today has been all about trying to push AAPL sub-580, but running into a supporting layer of puts. That's what all those lower wicks on the candlesticks across all intraday timeframes are telling me. It's not really been about eager buyers stepping up as they are likely to either already be in, or have cashed in their profits and looking to reload a little lower. Few people are going to be opening new positions ahead of this weekend.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 30, 2012 12:56:09 GMT -8
Looks like today has been all about trying to push AAPL sub-580, but running into a supporting layer of puts. That's what all those lower wicks on the candlesticks across all intraday timeframes are telling me. It's not really been about eager buyers stepping up as they are likely to either already be in, or have cashed in their profits and looking to reload a little lower. Few people are going to be opening new positions ahead of this weekend. Not too many puts for the next 2 weeks yet, until a little blip down at 575. Does that mean you'd expect a touch down to the 580-575 region first thing monday?
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 30, 2012 13:01:13 GMT -8
Hmmm, never seen this kind of action before? LOL, It may be just me, but I am OK with yesterday and today's movement. Since I am not a day trader, days like today support my LT belief. Yep, they did it just over 585. LOL Good call Madmax
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 30, 2012 13:02:45 GMT -8
There was $3.5 billion to buy on the close in various names....I guess AAPL wasn't one of them.....$585 pin
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Post by wheeles on Nov 30, 2012 13:03:29 GMT -8
Looks like today has been all about trying to push AAPL sub-580, but running into a supporting layer of puts. That's what all those lower wicks on the candlesticks across all intraday timeframes are telling me. It's not really been about eager buyers stepping up as they are likely to either already be in, or have cashed in their profits and looking to reload a little lower. Few people are going to be opening new positions ahead of this weekend. Not too many puts for the next 2 weeks yet, until a little blip down at 575. Does that mean you'd expect a touch down to the 580-575 region first thing monday? I was expecting that today but weekly OE put paid to that. Can't say what will happen Monday, but we'll probably get the usual Monday PM gap higher, because that's what AAPL does. After that, no idea. EDIT: I was looking to get long on a touch of the 4H lower Bollinger, but I guess that will have to wait.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 30, 2012 13:04:29 GMT -8
Not too bad, with Yahoo showing 584.84. If only my predictions a few months out were as accurate (lucky) as one 40 minutes out.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 13:04:32 GMT -8
Not too many puts for the next 2 weeks yet, until a little blip down at 575. Does that mean you'd expect a touch down to the 580-575 region first thing monday? I was expecting that today but weekly OE put paid to that. Can't say what will happen Monday, but we'll probably get the usual Monday PM gap higher, because that's what AAPL does. After that, no idea. The puts at $585 were pretty safe bet today.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 13:06:27 GMT -8
Hmmm, never seen this kind of action before? LOL, It may be just me, but I am OK with yesterday and today's movement. Since I am not a day trader, days like today support my LT belief. Yep, they did it just over 585. LOL Good call Madmax Max called $584.99. You lose. Thanks for playing. ;D
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Post by wheeles on Nov 30, 2012 13:09:23 GMT -8
Hmmm, never seen this kind of action before? LOL, It may be just me, but I am OK with yesterday and today's movement. Since I am not a day trader, days like today support my LT belief. Yep, they did it just over 585. LOL Good call Madmax Max called $584.99. You lose. Thanks for playing. ;D When do they actually mark the exercise price? Is it at the close of regular trading, or AH?
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 30, 2012 13:14:48 GMT -8
Max called $584.99. You lose. Thanks for playing. ;D When do they actually mark the exercise price? Is it at the close of regular trading, or AH? Since options are not traded in AH, I would assume the mark is at the close.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 30, 2012 13:43:11 GMT -8
Do not know if it will be airing tonight or if it is part of another segment but it seems that Tim Cook is being interviewed by Brian Williams - NBC - at the Grand Central store in NYC. Business Insider is tweeting it out.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2012 13:44:58 GMT -8
When do they actually mark the exercise price? Is it at the close of regular trading, or AH? Since options are not traded in AH, I would assume the mark is at the close. I think that's right.
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 30, 2012 14:07:25 GMT -8
Do not know if it will be airing tonight or if it is part of another segment but it seems that Tim Cook is being interviewed by Brian Williams - NBC - at the Grand Central store in NYC. Business Insider is tweeting it out. This is the kind of story that COULD be market moving Monday! HERE
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 30, 2012 14:12:36 GMT -8
Do not know if it will be airing tonight or if it is part of another segment but it seems that Tim Cook is being interviewed by Brian Williams - NBC - at the Grand Central store in NYC. Business Insider is tweeting it out. This is the kind of story that COULD be market moving Monday! HERENice publicity for sure. I am not sure Tim will say anything beyond "we are making a buch of stuff; we are selling all of it and and look at this beautiful store" With the Imacs coming out, is there any major product in the Apple arsenal that has NOT been revamped (not just refreshed) in the past three months? Let's see...Ipods, Ipad(s), Iphone, Mac Pro, Imac, Mac mini, Ahhhhhh....Mercel's Apple TV. There is the missing cog. !!
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 30, 2012 14:15:08 GMT -8
We visited that store in July, the setting is magnificent. I will dig, but I think I have a good pic from there also.
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Post by appledoc on Nov 30, 2012 14:39:13 GMT -8
When do they actually mark the exercise price? Is it at the close of regular trading, or AH? Since options are not traded in AH, I would assume the mark is at the close. They can be exercised in AH, but not traded. We've discussed this before, so hopefully someone more knowledgable can post the specifics.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 30, 2012 14:46:32 GMT -8
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Post by greedynoob on Nov 30, 2012 14:53:26 GMT -8
The reviews are missing a huge improvement: they discontinued the Apple RAID Card option for it ;-) Finally, you are no longer able to configure a BTO Mac Pro in such a way that the entire OS will crash under moderately heavy disk activity!
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Post by chasmac on Nov 30, 2012 15:00:24 GMT -8
Nice. Bought any new paper hats lately? Call the close at $584.9999999999999. Aren't weekly options great? Max, should've played some butterflies. Money to made on these pins. Great call.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 30, 2012 15:04:23 GMT -8
Just came back from both the Apple store Oakbrook, IL and the local Best Buy. Both had the 21" iMac in stock, though the Best Buy only had 2 left, the rep said they sold many today. BB only got the entry level 1299.00 iteration.
The AAPL store sold out of the 21" iMac, but expect more on Monday. They apparently had both models.
BB sold out all iPad Mini's they had today as well. The AAPL store also was low on Mini's, mostly 64 GB left in various sku's.
The new 21" iMac is a killer little, thin, and very light iMac. Quite fast in my 10 min experience. The display definitely had less glare. Even under BB bright fluorescents. Nice.
BB had very low ( less than 10 left ) stock on iPad 4, the reps said the 4 and mini are about 50/50 in sales. They had many iPad 3's, which they said are not selling well.
Quick report from the burbs...
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 30, 2012 15:36:32 GMT -8
Anecdotal Evidence part II
Both BB and Oakbrook have little faith on 27" availability this QTR. This from multiple birdies. Some might be available before Dec 24, just a taste, sources said. Alas.
Both did say the Air, particularly the 128 Gig iteration of both the 11" and 13" are flying off the shelves. The 256 Gig of the 13" was close second at both.
Macbook 13" Pro, non stop action at both locations. I saw 4 at Oakbook, and 1 at BB, each in 15 minutes.
BB, no iPhone 5's, though they had many more in the last three to four days, as they had since intro. This is very good news.
Adequate supply of 5's in various configs at Oakbrook, except the 16 gig iteration, with Sprint being the outlier.
Tim is doing a great job in the 5 department, let's hope China in the next 2 weeks brings us a windfall.
Tim is doing poorly on the iMac department, very much a pent-up demand.
2 separate clients contacted me today re: the 27" iMac, 7 units total, and I had to burst the ( i need to spend x amount this year for tax write-off purposes ), and they were met with exasperation on the news. I might invoice them before Dec 29th, and ship when I can in early Jan.
Another MacMini server iteration sold today, with a Promise R6, to replace a 2008 Mac Pro. These Mac Mini's are very good servers. Solid as a rock, though several tiny bugs need to be quashed, which 10.8.3 should resolve.
I have high hopes we can see a significant ramp in the 21" throughout the month of December, I fear that the more desired 27" will not be of consequence in the Q1 numbers. Alas.
field reporter out...
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 30, 2012 15:56:11 GMT -8
Well - Brian Williams just announced that he interviewed Tim Cook and will be airing a segment on him and AAPL on 30 Rock next Thursday night. He said he (Tim Cook) was able to walk in Grand Central without being noticed (unlike the man he replaced) - HOWEVER - once he got to the AAPL store he was treated like a rock star by customers and staff. I will definitely be watching although I doubt it will be an epiphany in any way.
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Post by tradervic on Nov 30, 2012 16:39:46 GMT -8
So I don't know how much of this is old news but it seems that Mansfield sold about $20 mln worth of stock - he will still be getting a boat-load more but Benzinga has an article out there speculating that Mansfield is someone who would know if there was a new product on the horizon and if there wasn't anything coming next year it may be why he sold. Naturally, they have no clue if there was a need for his sale or anything else but they threw out that FUD earlier today. I did not want to post the link - it's stupid. May have been posted already but his last sale was in the 450s. When you're worth a couple hundred, you don't mind the 10s or 20s you miss here or there.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 30, 2012 16:40:58 GMT -8
Thanks for the Illinois field report, MacE.
Any ideas on how to estimate Mac mini sales compared to other desktops ?
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 30, 2012 17:25:11 GMT -8
Tetra,
You are most assuredly setting me up on this one. What other desktops? Pro's, laugh's me. iMac's are missing for more than half the quarter! If I were to guess, Mac Mini's are 25 + percent of the quarter, for desktops, as what else could you buy? Some iMacs in the near front end, Mac Mini's after the intro, and no iMacs. A poor quarter for Macintosh/Vs PC growth IMHO. I think the Wintel sector is experiencing far worse. Maybe even double digit loss territory.
No client I deal with is investing in anything Wintel related. It is all Web/IOS/Android/Mobile, and in that order. Even the wintel clients are using Macs to do their programming. ( one OS to rule them all ), whether it be MS SQL backends, MS Visual Basic/.Net, Oracle
The attitude in Small and Medium biz for OSX is very proactive, and positive.
The Mac Mini is a net net plus as far as I can see. Many installs here in my little kingdom.
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 30, 2012 17:25:21 GMT -8
NOVEMBER OFFICIAL CHINA PMI CLIMBS TO 50.6(Est. 50.8, Prev. 50.2)
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Nov 30, 2012 17:40:48 GMT -8
Tetra,
Very off topic.
Ecosystem.
One tightly integrated, and one with no direction known.
Google claims to take the high road, and offer "Open Source" Apple is the gated community.
One usurps off the user to direct ad's at, in a never ending upward spiral, as that is where Google makes it's cash. They know who you are, where you are, what you like, what you do not, and how to utilize all the above.
AAPL has the might to smite us with ad's, and does not. An ecosystem that has been very privacy friendly, and the sharing of my info with any outside entities is almost non existent. I do not get spammed via/from Apple! OK, So I get some stuff from Filemaker.com, but I choose to.
I do not trust Google.
I implicitly trust AAPL.
The chasm is very great between the two.
Yet AAPL is viewed as the outlier, and GOOG as the savior/stalwart by most media.
Strange indeed.
If AAPL make's a move to payments, we have a perpetual machine!
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Post by Tetrachloride on Nov 30, 2012 19:18:46 GMT -8
Totally agree on Google. I've been meaning to transition away from Gmail but haven't found a service and/or domain name that I like yet.
Regarding desktops, I'm trying to estimate ASP (average sales price) of desktops. It has been on the rise, but this quarter may be an aberration. Not sure.
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