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Post by v10king on Sept 15, 2012 18:28:36 GMT -8
At some point let's just let the hate for TMO forum mgmt stop and just get down to AFB's usual business. They did provide a nice forum for a time at the very least. Li'l trade update for Monday: Hedging my Jan 14 BCS with a Nov 12 BPS smaller bet in case of a quick AAPL retest of still-forming support around 683 (since we just blew past it for the most part). Net long in any case. Quite pleased with my Nov 12 or something 650/675 legged-in BCS. Might turn out a decent shade of green if only I can wait it out... Good call on that Nov bcs, I was looking at putting on a Oct 650/670 but by the time I transferred the money into the account aapl had shot up again. Oh well, still have all the core 2014's
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Post by v10king on Sept 15, 2012 18:33:10 GMT -8
It's a bear put spread hedge, yes. 700/675 or something. Short term insurance/cash flow play. It's just me, and I'm wrong a whole bunch, so don't mind my "contrarian" trade. iPad - are you actually getting individual avatars for us? And did you pay to remove the ads?! That's too kind. Mav, I know you do this quite a bit, question for you. Do you find that you make money on both sides of the trade (on your BCS and your BPS) becaus of Aapl's typical fluctuations? Or do you find that overall you make less money due to the spreads acting against eachother but obviously are more protected?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 15, 2012 18:41:21 GMT -8
Surge in iPhone 5 Sales Forecast
Published: Friday, 14 Sep 2012 | 2:21 AM ET Text Size By: Tim Bradshaw, Financial Times
Apple [AAPL 691.28 8.30 (+1.22%) ] intends to launch the iPhone 5 in nine countries on September 21, including the US and UK, adding Hong Kong and Singapore to its opening-weekend line-up for the first time. Another 20 countries will follow a week later, including Poland and New Zealand to this first wave.
“We are positively surprised that this iPhone rollout is Apple's fastest yet,” said analysts at Barclays. They had expected constraints in Apple suppliers’ capacity to ramp up production of components for the iPhone’s new thinner touchscreen.
Sterne Agee, a brokerage, on Thursday raised its forecast iPhone sales for the three months to the end of September from 23m to 26m and added 1m to its December forecast to 46m.
RBC Capital Markets analysts said the iPhone 5 could be Apple’s “biggest upgrade in the company’s history” in a note to clients, suggesting that it could sell 8–10m units by end of the September quarter, resulting in up to $5bn of incremental revenues.
Investors responded to the upgrades by driving Apple shares more than 2 per cent higher, to touch a new intraday high of $683.70 during New York trading on Thursday.
MORE FROM CNBC.COM First Impressions of Apple's iPhone 5 Apple: Swipe Your iPhone 5 'Passbook' Can Microsoft Use Apple’s ‘Gift’ to Escape the Shadows? After the iPhone 4 sold around 113,000 units a day in each country and the 4S 191,000, Horace Dediu, independent analyst at Asymco, estimates that Apple's latest smartphone could reach 220,000, totalling 6m units in the launch weekend.
The addition of Hong Kong and Singapore to the iPhone 5’s first launch regions is particularly significant, said Mr Dediu, because they are lively retail markets that are also popular spots for people to buy iPhones for sale in China’s grey market.
However, Apple has not yet revealed when the new smartphone will go on sale in China, its largest market after the US.
According to IDC, a market research firm, Apple’s share of the Chinese market almost halved to 10 per cent in the three months to the end of June, leaving it ranked fourth behind Samsung, Lenovo and ZTE in the region.
Some analysts are concerned that without China, a huge spike in demand in the run-up to Christmas will leave Apple with a New Year hangover. In July, Apple missed Wall Street forecasts with its third-quarter iPhone sales, as buyers waited for the new model or switched to rivals such as Samsung’s Galaxy SIII.
“Product cycles are becoming more compressed with greater number of sales up front and a quicker subsequent drop off,” said Walter Piecyk, analyst at
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Sept 15, 2012 18:47:27 GMT -8
It's a bear put spread hedge, yes. 700/675 or something. Short term insurance/cash flow play. It's just me, and I'm wrong a whole bunch, so don't mind my "contrarian" trade. iPad - are you actually getting individual avatars for us? And did you pay to remove the ads?! That's too kind. Mav, I know you do this quite a bit, question for you. Do you find that you make money on both sides of the trade (on your BCS and your BPS) becaus of Aapl's typical fluctuations? Or do you find that overall you make less money due to the spreads acting against eachother but obviously are more protected? No, my BPSes don't work for cash flow with AAPL too often. Doesn't stop me from trying. I prefer cash flow over downside insurance. But I don't mind either way. I don't hedge with BPSes against AAPL unless I have some weird feeling that downside is imminent, or there's big event risk that overrides my longer-term conviction.
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Post by v10king on Sept 15, 2012 18:56:48 GMT -8
Mav, I know you do this quite a bit, question for you. Do you find that you make money on both sides of the trade (on your BCS and your BPS) becaus of Aapl's typical fluctuations? Or do you find that overall you make less money due to the spreads acting against eachother but obviously are more protected? No, my BPSes don't work for cash flow with AAPL too often. Doesn't stop me from trying. I prefer cash flow over downside insurance. But I don't mind either way. I don't hedge with BPSes against AAPL unless I have some weird feeling that downside is imminent, or there's big event risk that overrides my longer-term conviction. I think it makes sense at certain times as well. I was just thinking that if you play it right, you could make money with aapl going both ways up and down. I'm just always too scared to do it since I'm always the eternal optimist.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 15, 2012 21:36:18 GMT -8
My technical prowess involves pushing all the buttons until it does what I want. Is it any better now? Coincidentally, that parallels my sexual prowess. TMI? TMETOH?
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Post by Iceage on Sept 16, 2012 5:12:35 GMT -8
FYI, Proboards has an app for both the iPad and iPhone which are GREAT.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 16, 2012 6:09:47 GMT -8
I suspect we are going to be here for a while. Don't shoot me for this suggestion. One of the good things about the old place is that all the AFB threads were in one place. Here we have them broken up into multiple forums, so you have to switch forums to view the different threads. I think they should all be in one forum. If I am missing some navigation trick, then please let me know. My workaround is to use the 'new topics' button right now. My technical prowess involves pushing all the buttons until it does what I want. Is it any better now? I am finding that the New Topics feature does a good job for what I was looking for.
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Post by moltenfire on Sept 16, 2012 10:19:35 GMT -8
FYI, Proboards has an app for both the iPad and iPhone which are GREAT. I saw that app. It's $2.99, and I want to hear some good reviews before I take the plunge
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Post by Iceage on Sept 16, 2012 10:28:54 GMT -8
I'm very tough when it comes to grading apps. I have a very limited number of apps on my iPhone and iPad but they are all quality ones. I give this app a 4.0 out if 5. I never give apps a 5/5 because there's always room for improvement. For this app, I would like notification of new posts through the notification center. Buy it, I'm sure you'll be very satisfied.
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Sept 16, 2012 10:32:37 GMT -8
Well worth the $2.99. Makes reading unread posts a breeze.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 16, 2012 10:34:20 GMT -8
I'm very tough when it comes to grading apps. I give this app a 4.0 out if 5. I never give apps a 5/5 because there's always room for improvement. For this app, I would like notification of new posts through the notification center. Buy it, I'm sure you'll be very satisfied. Understand though that you could be out the astronomical sum of $3.00 when we leave the temporary housing here. Funny how we all now fuss over the price of an app, when no one gives a second thought to dropping that much cash over at Starbucks every day.
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Post by moltenfire on Sept 16, 2012 10:38:21 GMT -8
Thanks for the good review, all. I'm going to buy the app. Given how much I've made on AAPL over the years, it's worth it. I don't drink coffee so the comparo doesn't quite work, but that's just me
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Post by Iceage on Sept 16, 2012 10:40:47 GMT -8
I'm very tough when it comes to grading apps. I give this app a 4.0 out if 5. I never give apps a 5/5 because there's always room for improvement. For this app, I would like notification of new posts through the notification center. Buy it, I'm sure you'll be very satisfied. Understand though that you could be out the astronomical sum of $3.00 when we leave the temporary housing here. Funny how we all now fuss over the price of an app, when no one gives a second thought to dropping that much cash over at Starbucks every day. I don't fuss over app prices when the app is well built, maintained and updated. ... and if we move back to the old place, it will be a sad day.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 16, 2012 11:23:56 GMT -8
I just bought the app. Very nice.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Sept 16, 2012 11:37:37 GMT -8
Thank goodness and thank you lovemyipad. This is so much better. I was looking deeper into the effects of algorithmic trading and found the excelent paper: www.hftreview.com/pg/bookmarks/mike/read/56738/is-highfrequency-trading-inducing-changes-in-market-microstructure-and-dynamics-smithYou can follow the link and download the full paper as a PDF. The cliff notes version is that with 80% of trading being done by algorithms, the old assumptions that underlie theories of TA are questionable. I hope everyone here makes a lot of money, but after reading this article, I think it is like playing roulette when the house controls the wheel. Be careful out there
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2012 12:07:12 GMT -8
I would challenge that. I see technicals traders who still do very well in this environment. I'm studying up on technicals here and there and certain significant indicators still seem to have value. Also, algos would theoretically be able to shut out ALL market participants, but this would largely depend on them acting the same way...which they don't.
The market is more dangerous than ever, but there's still ways to navigate it.
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 16, 2012 12:37:58 GMT -8
... and if we move back to the old place, it will be a sad day. I'd consider renovations complete when AFB1 has the same functionality as AFB2.
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Post by Lstream on Sept 16, 2012 12:45:17 GMT -8
Here is how the app looks on the iPad.
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Post by Iceage on Sept 16, 2012 13:44:27 GMT -8
... and if we move back to the old place, it will be a sad day. I'd consider renovations complete when AFB1 has the same functionality as AFB2. I'm not sure what you mean ...
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2012 13:46:18 GMT -8
That looks pretty damn nice, Lstream!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 16, 2012 14:26:17 GMT -8
I'd consider renovations complete when AFB1 has the same functionality as AFB2. I'm not sure what you mean ... Means: don't worry about it!
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Post by Lstream on Sept 16, 2012 17:17:02 GMT -8
That looks pretty damn nice, Lstream! Yep. This is one of the few apps I have seen that provides a significantly better experience than just using the web site.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Sept 16, 2012 18:22:39 GMT -8
I'm not sure what you mean ... Means: don't worry about it! Means: If this is AFB's permanent home, so be it.
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Post by Iceage on Sept 16, 2012 18:31:29 GMT -8
That looks pretty damn nice, Lstream! Yep. This is one of the few apps I have seen that provides a significantly better experience than just using the web site. In total agreement. Same thing can be said about the iPhone version. A real joy to use!
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Post by stkstalker on Sept 17, 2012 1:22:36 GMT -8
I am thinking about canceling my pre-order for the iPhone 5 (2 week ship time) and trying my luck at the local Apple store or even the AT&T store. That way I can get at least a week sooner. I hate to wait.
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