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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 15:29:05 GMT -8
You don't hear anything good, everything is negative. I do not understand how so much negativity draws viewers. I use to watch CNBC, have not for quite a while. I want to reach into the TV and scream, AAPL has a 13 p/e you jackass. You buy a company because of valuation, potential earnings, products, management,etc....... all this other stuff is getting me very angry.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 4, 2012 15:34:48 GMT -8
What's actually good is that all 3 of those bozos agreed with the bearish stance. That's usually the sign of a bottom. However, put activity says we might have some more down. There's an article to the right of the Google chart for AAPL. And I can't help but think of Avi Gilbert with his "if it doesn't get past 595, then look for a trip back to 500" story last week. Maybe we're at that point. How will we know?
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Post by fas550 on Dec 4, 2012 15:36:09 GMT -8
You don't hear anything good, everything is negative. I do not understand how so much negativity draws viewers. I use to watch CNBC, have not for quite a while. I want to reach into the TV and scream, AAPL has a 13 p/e you jackass. You buy a company because of valuation, potential earnings, products, management,etc....... all this other stuff is getting me very angry. It's the nature of entertainment today. The blurring of reality with facts and an insatiable appetite for everything to conclude right here, right now. Fundamentals have no place in that screenplay (until it suits them of course). Unfortunately people who play AH are more prone to eating this like freshly baked donuts. This will pass, it's just part of all the BS. Have a look at Goog and suspect their AH is similar only because of the herd effect that moves not because of any basis in fact, just because its a herd.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 4, 2012 15:47:37 GMT -8
I can appreciate that CNBC is garbage but there are idiots out there who don't even question and take it as gospel truth and ACT on it. It causes the rest of us to watch our portfolios convulse for no rational reason. It's frustrating....and quite frankly exhausting.
This Thursday is Judge Koh's conclusions no?....God knows if it will be positive or negative at this point...and even if it is positive some CNBC idiot will try to make it negative.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 4, 2012 15:52:54 GMT -8
My Greatest disappoint is how little stock prices (most of them) have little to do with fundamentals on daily and weekly movements. I am comforted in the fact though that come some Jan and most Apr earnings a lot of companies will be making excuses why the top and bottom line are down : except this one.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 4, 2012 15:58:00 GMT -8
My Greatest disappoint is how little stock prices (most of them) have little to do with fundamentals on daily and weekly movements. I am comforted in the fact though that come some Jan and most Apr earnings a lot of companies will be making excuses why the top and bottom line are down : except this one. On a happy note - you are 100% correct -- but in reality, they will punish it like all the rest...and hold it to a higher standard than ANY COMPANY IN ANY SECTOR. Therein lies the injustice. Why does Shel Silverstein's "The Giving Tree" come to mind?!
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Post by macziggy on Dec 4, 2012 16:07:01 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 17:11:05 GMT -8
And I can't help but think of Avi Gilbert with his "if it doesn't get past 595, then look for a trip back to 500" story last week. Maybe we're at that point. If...THEN look for a retest of the lows. Doesn't necessarily mean all the way to 500. Remember, anything above 61.8% is bullish. That retrace level is currently 540-ish. Note: we closed around 23.6%. Still have 38.2%, 50%, then 61.8%. Take it level by level. Until proven otherwise, this is just retrace, not reversal. P.S. For those who are wondering, Fibs are a way of measuring the commitment of buyers/sellers in terms of how much territory is captured, relinquished, recaptured, etc.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 4, 2012 17:46:05 GMT -8
IPad Learned more from this sentence than anything in the last week: "P.S. For those who are wondering, Fibs are a way of measuring the commitment of buyers/sellers in terms of how much territory is captured, relinquished, recaptured, etc." Thanks
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 4, 2012 17:51:29 GMT -8
FYI: Don't know if anyone is playing the name but it was announced about an hour ago that Facebook is being added to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on December 12th. Although it was anticipated/rumored -- the stock "should" get a little bit of a pop given that anyone who runs an index fund that incorporates the NDX will have to buy the stock, as I am sure you know.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 18:23:21 GMT -8
IPad Learned more from this sentence than anything in the last week: "P.S. For those who are wondering, Fibs are a way of measuring the commitment of buyers/sellers in terms of how much territory is captured, relinquished, recaptured, etc." Thanks YAY!!!
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 4, 2012 18:40:11 GMT -8
FYI: Don't know if anyone is playing the name but it was announced about an hour ago that Facebook is being added to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on December 12th. Although it was anticipated/rumored -- the stock "should" get a little bit of a pop given that anyone who runs an index fund that incorporates the NDX will have to buy the stock, as I am sure you know. Great catch! IMHO: that was the reason AAPL was down after hours. The NASDAQ 100 will be slightly REBALANCED by that day. AAPL will probably fall more until the total rebalance is understood. There are currently 9,620,970 shares of AAPL in the NASDAQ 100, I believe. Other market makers and funds will be forced to sell some AAPL and buy FB to get their funds in the same order as the NASDAQ 100. I THINK THIS IS REALLY BIG NEWS IN THE NEXT WEEK.It is a market making move. PRESS RELEASE
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 4, 2012 18:47:40 GMT -8
FYI: Don't know if anyone is playing the name but it was announced about an hour ago that Facebook is being added to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on December 12th. Although it was anticipated/rumored -- the stock "should" get a little bit of a pop given that anyone who runs an index fund that incorporates the NDX will have to buy the stock, as I am sure you know. Great catch! IMHO: that was the reason AAPL was down after hours. The NASDAQ 100 will be slightly REBALANCED by that day. AAPL will probably fall more until the total rebalance is understood. There are currently 9,620,970 shares of AAPL in the NASDAQ 100, I believe. Other market makers and funds will be forced to sell some AAPL and buy FB to get their funds in the same order as the NASDAQ 100. I THINK THIS IS REALLY BIG NEWS IN THE NEXT WEEK.It is a market making move. PRESS RELEASEIn the words of Rosanne Rosannadanna: "It's always something!" Jason Schwarz is trying to make a case that AAPL will be going down if TC says no dividend. Theory is that people will free up money by selling AAPL to buy stocks which have the special dividend. (However, they'll be back to shoot that damn rubber band higher.) Jason says this will be the third big downwave after: 1) mutual funds rebalancing which had to be done by 10/31/12; 2) sell-off post Election Day to cash in Long Term Cap. Gains.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 4, 2012 18:49:38 GMT -8
IPad Learned more from this sentence than anything in the last week: "P.S. For those who are wondering, Fibs are a way of measuring the commitment of buyers/sellers in terms of how much territory is captured, relinquished, recaptured, etc." Thanks YAY!!! I heard Scott Redler give a brief expalnation about what each level meant this morning. That retracing to the 23.1% level showed still great enthusiasm for the stock, but the further down you go, there is less interest. What's your two cents?
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 4, 2012 18:59:11 GMT -8
FYI: Don't know if anyone is playing the name but it was announced about an hour ago that Facebook is being added to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on December 12th. Although it was anticipated/rumored -- the stock "should" get a little bit of a pop given that anyone who runs an index fund that incorporates the NDX will have to buy the stock, as I am sure you know. Great catch! IMHO: that was the reason AAPL was down after hours. The NASDAQ 100 will be slightly REBALANCED by that day. AAPL will probably fall more until the total rebalance is understood. There are currently 9,620,970 shares of AAPL in the NASDAQ 100, I believe. Other market makers and funds will be forced to sell some AAPL and buy FB to get their funds in the same order as the NASDAQ 100. I THINK THIS IS REALLY BIG NEWS IN THE NEXT WEEK.It is a market making move. PRESS RELEASEFacebook will be replacing Infosystems (INFY) - I really don't think there will much, if any, effect on AAPL.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 4, 2012 19:18:33 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 19:27:57 GMT -8
I follow Travis on Twitter an he said the exact same thing I have concerning the special dividend, be careful what you wish for. He said it is like this, remove $50 in cash, the share price may drop by $250 because Apple trades at a cash per share valuation of 5x.
Here is the most important thing to remember, any company that pays out a special dividend is giving investors a dividend tax rate for a short term investment. This is one of the greatest crimes ever committed against this country.
I am so upset by the AH action. 594 was 30 short of where I thought we would go before any correction. Hourly, extremely oversold already, back to the embedded BS I guess.
Scattered post, just annoyed and wanted to put it all in one post.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 4, 2012 19:50:28 GMT -8
I read Travis' post as well but I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY very HIGHLY doubt that TC will declare a special dividend. The guy struggled and seem tortured to even pay ANY dividend on the stock....and truth be told, if rates do go up significantly for dividends, it was all a waste to have even initiated one because dividend stocks will not be sought after in the future. I pray that TC surrounds himself with his Board and vets any decision thoroughly...including pondering on doing a stock buy back. THAT would be the right direction to go....not this special dividend crap!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 19:56:26 GMT -8
I follow Travis on Twitter an he said the exact same thing I have concerning the special dividend, be careful what you wish for. He said it is like this, remove $50 in cash, the share price may drop by $250 because Apple trades at a cash per share valuation of 5x. This 5x multiple on cash thing is probably the dumbest piece of TA out there. Does any really think this is the new metric for pricing Apple? You shouldn't because it's asinine. We might as well monitor hemlines of customers who frequent Starbucks between 2pm and 4pm in New York city.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 20:05:51 GMT -8
YAY!!! I heard Scott Redler give a brief expalnation about what each level meant this morning. That retracing to the 23.1% level showed still great enthusiasm for the stock, but the further down you go, there is less interest. What's your two cents? All MHO: The deeper the pullback -- as long as it doesn't exceed 61.8% -- the bigger the bounce potential. Like an express train (505 to 590), versus the local train with lots of stops. 23.6% = healthy but shallow; bounce may not get too far, and if it does, potentially prone to "parabolic" headlines 38.2% = sweet spot; very bullish but not "parabolic" 50% = still fine 61.8% = slingshot / rip-your-face-off short squeeze potential > 61.8% = increased probability of 100%+ = reversal (versus retrace) territory
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 20:06:41 GMT -8
I follow Travis on Twitter an he said the exact same thing I have concerning the special dividend, be careful what you wish for. He said it is like this, remove $50 in cash, the share price may drop by $250 because Apple trades at a cash per share valuation of 5x. This 5x multiple on cash thing is probably the dumbest piece of TA out there. Does any really think this is the new metric for pricing Apple? You shouldn't because it's asinine. We might as well monitor hemlines of customers who frequent Starbucks between 2pm and 4pm in New York city. It's not TA!!!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 4, 2012 20:24:24 GMT -8
This 5x multiple on cash thing is probably the dumbest piece of TA out there. Does any really think this is the new metric for pricing Apple? You shouldn't because it's asinine. We might as well monitor hemlines of customers who frequent Starbucks between 2pm and 4pm in New York city. It's not TA!!! I think the cash ratio would qualify as FA....
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 20:28:12 GMT -8
Red: ;D
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 4, 2012 20:29:20 GMT -8
This 5x multiple on cash thing is probably the dumbest piece of TA out there. Does any really think this is the new metric for pricing Apple? You shouldn't because it's asinine. We might as well monitor hemlines of customers who frequent Starbucks between 2pm and 4pm in New York city. It's not TA!!! But it is the same logic, i.e., that past correlations - not even proven to be causative - can somehow predict future events. And this from a guy who I respect, but who is a big critic of TA. Speaking of Travis, here's the pain range: Stk Calls Puts 555 751 7,513 565 1,710 7,674 570 2,956 10,971 575 5,397 8,672 580 7,539 5,178 585 9,469 4,646
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Post by sponge on Dec 4, 2012 20:37:14 GMT -8
It's not TA!!! I think the cash ratio would qualify as FA.... Red you really made me LOL today. We will be fine even if we drop to 540 again. I don't think we will but if we do don't fret. Remember we can move $80 in 5 days in a heart beat at any time for no reason. I am still bearish and don't think we will see much above 630 by OE in Jan. After earnings it will be a very different story.
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Post by chasmac on Dec 4, 2012 20:40:36 GMT -8
You don't hear anything good, everything is negative. I do not understand how so much negativity draws viewers. I use to watch CNBC, have not for quite a while. I want to reach into the TV and scream, AAPL has a 13 p/e you jackass. You buy a company because of valuation, potential earnings, products, management,etc....... all this other stuff is getting me very angry. Interesting that they take such glee in the supposed demise of a great American company. I think they would rather have Samsung succeed. Patriotic no?
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Post by kloot on Dec 4, 2012 20:46:48 GMT -8
I follow Travis on Twitter an he said the exact same thing I have concerning the special dividend, be careful what you wish for. He said it is like this, remove $50 in cash, the share price may drop by $250 because Apple trades at a cash per share valuation of 5x. This 5x multiple on cash thing is probably the dumbest piece of TA out there. Does any really think this is the new metric for pricing Apple? You shouldn't because it's asinine. We might as well monitor hemlines of customers who frequent Starbucks between 2pm and 4pm in New York city. +1 the 5x cash multiple is ridiculous IMO. that is clearly not how aapl is valued.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 20:59:51 GMT -8
Interesting that they take such glee in the supposed demise of a great American company. I think they would rather have Samsung succeed. Patriotic no? Yeah, I so agree. It's completely mystifying. But you have to remember these talking heads never created anything in their lives. They really are beyond contempt, most of them. The lack of accountability in the media has really tarnished the "profession." What passes for news today bears no resemblance whatsoever to the standards of journalism of even 10-15 years ago.
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Post by chasmac on Dec 4, 2012 21:00:13 GMT -8
...and truth be told, if rates do go up significantly for dividends, it was all a waste to have even initiated one because dividend stocks will not be sought after in the future.... Wouldn't that imply that in the past (when rates were higher) no one sought dividend stocks?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 21:05:48 GMT -8
This 5x multiple on cash thing is probably the dumbest piece of TA out there. Does any really think this is the new metric for pricing Apple? You shouldn't because it's asinine. We might as well monitor hemlines of customers who frequent Starbucks between 2pm and 4pm in New York city. It's not TA!!! Says you. ;D And yeah -- to what JD said. And I can chart AAPL's price with Apple's cash real easy-smeazy. But the chart would break when we get Apple to buy a bunch of heavy crap from Amazon with that cool Prime account with free shipping.
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