JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 4, 2012 22:02:33 GMT -8
It's not TA!!! Says you. ;D And yeah -- to what JD said. And I can chart AAPL's price with Apple's cash real easy-smeazy. But the chart would break when we get Apple to buy a bunch of heavy crap from Amazon with that cool Prime account with free shipping. But wait, if I buy my new car and Apple buys all those gun safes on Amazon Prime with free shipping, but then AAPL tanks because Apple spent all its cash, then we'll all have to return our stuff again to get the stock to go up. But then we can buy it again once the stock goes up, with free shipping! It's like an, er, infinite loop?
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Post by kloot on Dec 4, 2012 22:07:27 GMT -8
Says you. ;D And yeah -- to what JD said. And I can chart AAPL's price with Apple's cash real easy-smeazy. But the chart would break when we get Apple to buy a bunch of heavy crap from Amazon with that cool Prime account with free shipping. But wait, if I buy my new car and Apple buys all those gun safes on Amazon Prime with free shipping, but then AAPL tanks because Apple spent all its cash, then we'll all have to return our stuff again to get the stock to go up. But then we can buy it again once the stock goes up, with free shipping! It's like an, er, infinite loop? thank you for illustrating the absurdity of the cash multiple idea.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 22:08:23 GMT -8
This 5x multiple on cash thing is probably the dumbest piece of TA out there. Does any really think this is the new metric for pricing Apple? You shouldn't because it's asinine. We might as well monitor hemlines of customers who frequent Starbucks between 2pm and 4pm in New York city. +1 the 5x cash multiple is ridiculous IMO. that is clearly not how aapl is valued. You guys do realize that it was Horace (asymco) that first did a piece on the cash multiple, Travis was just echoing that sentiment. I hold both in high regard. This is not TA. Mercel.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 22:17:06 GMT -8
Discarding Horace as being absurd is well, absurd. www.asymco.com/2012/05/07/back-to-the-balance-sheet/He is brilliant and was the first person I know of who brought this to the forefront. Here is the thing, if Apple did not have all that cash, it would be a safe bet that the share price would be lower.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 22:30:39 GMT -8
+1 the 5x cash multiple is ridiculous IMO. that is clearly not how aapl is valued. You guys do realize that it was Horace (asymco) that first did a piece on the cash multiple, Travis was just echoing that sentiment. I hold both in high regard. This is not TA. Mercel. So? It was a ridiculous guide to valuation then as it is now. If I recall, Horace noted a correlation and it has since taken on a life of its own, another unintended result of repeating something ad infinitum until it becomes accepted as fact without thought. Travis should know better. What is TA if not the utilization of charts and tools (e.g. multiples, volume, etc.) to identify patterns that portend future price behavior?
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 4, 2012 22:47:19 GMT -8
Mercel, I put the link from Horace in my above post. It is not like it is an exact measure, just a trend line. Think of it this way, if Apple adds $15 in cash that would equate to $75.
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