mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
|
Post by mark on Dec 5, 2012 9:01:29 GMT -8
Looks like a 900/1000 Jan '14 BCS to me. Also *VERY* bullish. Turns ~$4.50 into $100 if it succeeds. 500k bet, wonder if it's one of AZ's subs. I'm wondering who took the other side of the trade, or the other side of each half of the trade. Someone sold ~1100 Jan '14 900's to this person/organization. Someone bought ~1100 Jan '14 1000's from this person/org. The former is quite a reasonable trade, but the latter is crazy. Therefore I have to assume that it's two Wall Streeters, one super-bullish on Apple and the other not so bullish, and they have a $500k bet going between them, and this is how they are running the bet. ;D
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 9:03:25 GMT -8
The last time - June 4 - don't ask me how I remember - we reached 547 - we closed at 562. I'm hoping history duplicates itself and voting for a 562 close. LOL, you ad me go back and look. The stockcharts site shows split adjusted numbers which totally screws up the numbers. It does show a 562 close, but a low of 543. Now add 5 to each, carry the .2, divide by 4, multiply by 6, square the denominator.............
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 9:07:40 GMT -8
Good grief, the DOW is up 120 which makes today's pain that much worse.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 5, 2012 9:07:59 GMT -8
The last time - June 4 - don't ask me how I remember - we reached 547 - we closed at 562. I'm hoping history duplicates itself and voting for a 562 close. LOL, you ad me go back and look. The stockcharts site shows split adjusted numbers which totally screws up the numbers. It does show a 562 close, but a low of 543. Now add 5 to each, carry the .2, divide by 4, multiply by 6, square the denominator............. This is the only time I've smiled all day.
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Dec 5, 2012 9:09:31 GMT -8
I'm going to make a hilarious swing for the fences of 585. Do you have fences on cricket pitches or are you just showing off your familiarity with the American vernacular? Just showing off. Cricket pitches often have a rope to indicate the boundary. Anyway, if my wild guess came off that would be the equivalent of hitting it out of the ground.
|
|
|
Post by bernard on Dec 5, 2012 9:09:44 GMT -8
The last time - June 4 - don't ask me how I remember - we reached 547 - we closed at 562. I'm hoping history duplicates itself and voting for a 562 close. LOL, you ad me go back and look. The stockcharts site shows split adjusted numbers which totally screws up the numbers. It does show a 562 close, but a low of 543. Now add 5 to each, carry the .2, divide by 4, multiply by 6, square the denominator............. Damn. You are ready to write algorithms for HFTs.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 9:13:12 GMT -8
Do you have fences on cricket pitches or are you just showing off your familiarity with the American vernacular? Just showing off. Cricket pitches often have a rope to indicate the boundary. Anyway, if my wild guess came off that would be the equivalent of hitting it out of the ground. BB, did you mean "hit it out of the park"? I am not familiar with Cricket, so are yo mixing lingo?
|
|
|
Post by Rupert on Dec 5, 2012 9:13:31 GMT -8
Henry from SI says..... From: mchjc At today's low…so far…of 547, AAPL may be considered as still holding in the general support area of 555ish….Needs to hold here…next S area around 525ish.
|
|
|
Post by chasmac on Dec 5, 2012 9:13:57 GMT -8
Good grief, the DOW is up 120 which makes today's pain that much worse. Barf! BTW, Citi is up 5% after announcing 11,000 job cuts (mostly overseas). Maybe Apple should fire a crapload of folks, just think of the rally we'd have.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Dec 5, 2012 9:15:01 GMT -8
AT&T Mobility sees strong smartphone salesFrom the article "AT&T is seeing stronger-than-expected smartphone sales in the fourth quarter, driven by increased inventory of Apple Inc.'s AAPL -3.91% iPhone. The sales--6.4 million in the first two months of the quarter--come as December is typically the strongest month for smartphones sales and after the telecom giant had weak customer additions last quarter. AT&T, once exclusive seller of the iPhone, had seen short supply of the iPhone 5, but inventory is now "in good shape" and the company has worked through an "initial spike" in demand,…" Hopefully good news
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 9:15:06 GMT -8
Henry from SI says.....From: mchjc At today's low…so far…of 547, AAPL may be considered as still holding in the general support area of 555ish….Needs to hold here…next S area around 525ish. I knew the other side of 572 was ugly, I just did not know how ugly.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 5, 2012 9:17:44 GMT -8
Good grief, the DOW is up 120 which makes today's pain that much worse. Barf! BTW, Citi is up 5% after announcing 11,000 job cuts (mostly overseas). Maybe Apple should fire a crapload of folks, just think of the rally we'd have. Instead of firing them, just send them over to China to work for Foxconn so they can make more iDevices.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 5, 2012 9:22:36 GMT -8
AT&T Mobility sees strong smartphone salesFrom the article "AT&T is seeing stronger-than-expected smartphone sales in the fourth quarter, driven by increased inventory of Apple Inc.'s AAPL -3.91% iPhone. The sales--6.4 million in the first two months of the quarter--come as December is typically the strongest month for smartphones sales and after the telecom giant had weak customer additions last quarter. AT&T, once exclusive seller of the iPhone, had seen short supply of the iPhone 5, but inventory is now "in good shape" and the company has worked through an "initial spike" in demand,…" Hopefully good news That is a story that on another day would have moved AAPL up at least $10. Today, nothing. AT&T says they are good on inventory for the iphone now and December is their biggest month. Should easily beat last years number if you figure on the iphone maintaining its 70+% of smartphone sales at AT&T.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Dec 5, 2012 9:25:45 GMT -8
AT&T Mobility sees strong smartphone salesFrom the article "AT&T is seeing stronger-than-expected smartphone sales in the fourth quarter, driven by increased inventory of Apple Inc.'s AAPL -3.91% iPhone. The sales--6.4 million in the first two months of the quarter--come as December is typically the strongest month for smartphones sales and after the telecom giant had weak customer additions last quarter. AT&T, once exclusive seller of the iPhone, had seen short supply of the iPhone 5, but inventory is now "in good shape" and the company has worked through an "initial spike" in demand,…" Hopefully good news That is a story that on another day would have moved AAPL up at least $10. Today, nothing. AT&T says they are good on inventory for the iphone now and December is their biggest month. Should easily beat last years number if you figure on the iphone maintaining its 70+% of smartphone sales at AT&T. This very same article was spoken about on CNBC as something that is ailing AAPL today. Pisani saying that the numbers from ATT should be a lot larger given expectations for iPhone 5 in this qtr. Jesus Christ...it's all about the frigging spin!
|
|
|
Post by madmaxroi on Dec 5, 2012 9:26:30 GMT -8
I think Sponge's broker uses COR as a clearing house. Sponge, you are too concentrated and they are concerned about you. ;D
|
|
|
Post by madmaxroi on Dec 5, 2012 9:31:55 GMT -8
Based on my TA skills (thin as ice on a hot summer day after a 100 day drought) and my conference call with the EO's, my call for the close:
$557 - What say you?
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Dec 5, 2012 9:42:59 GMT -8
I will wait until Thursday before the close for a buy.
|
|
|
Post by kloot on Dec 5, 2012 9:43:02 GMT -8
That is a story that on another day would have moved AAPL up at least $10. Today, nothing. AT&T says they are good on inventory for the iphone now and December is their biggest month. Should easily beat last years number if you figure on the iphone maintaining its 70+% of smartphone sales at AT&T. This very same article was spoken about on CNBC as something that is ailing AAPL today. Pisani saying that the numbers from ATT should be a lot larger given expectations for iPhone 5 in this qtr. Jesus Christ...it's all about the frigging spin! yes, wtf!
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 5, 2012 9:44:33 GMT -8
iPad. Care to share what Avi is saying? I've been tracking since you last posted and he's been mostly right than wrong since then. Bullish unless 61.8% retrace breaks lower. Not sure if we're done quite yet, but shouldn't go lower than 539-ish for bull thesis. (Under there, target full retrace.) AAPL-EW 15-MIN CHART: EDIT: FWIW, there's an unfilled gap at 530. Doesn't necessarily mean we fill it...just saying...it's there. See box in lower right-hand corner for list of relevant gaps: Cheat Sheet
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 5, 2012 9:52:34 GMT -8
Based on my TA skills (thin as ice on a hot summer day after a 100 day drought) and my conference call with the EO's, my call for the close: $557 - What say you? I think the EOs enjoy margin liquidations -- forced selling. And a place like Fidelity that has both brokerage accounts and their own mutual funds...well, theoretically, might they have access to margin liquidation figures (for their brokerage customers)? And might that help with the timing of purchases for their mutual funds? Besides the obvious conflict of interest, of course.
|
|
|
Post by lance on Dec 5, 2012 10:03:14 GMT -8
It should be awesome when we get our supposed "rally" into earnings and it is like 600 dollars a share which was the price from 9 months ago. The stock has been range bound between 500 to 700 for 10 months and most likely won't be out of this range anytime soon. The stock officially is starting to look like it will be trading range bound between 500 to 700 for a prolonged period in the future irrespective of fundamentals, price targets, cash, dividend, cheapness, earnings, product demand, supply, and reason. The stock looks trapped in this range and will need a miracle ie a brand new product or out of this world earnings beat to get out of this range.
|
|
|
Post by rob_london on Dec 5, 2012 10:16:26 GMT -8
Snippet on China Mobile from IBD
China Mobile CEO Li...confirmed earlier local news reports that China Mobile is expecting to cooperate with Apple in smartphones, but didn't give details.
"Apple is one of the greatest terminal manufacturers around the world. We started making contact in 2007," Li said. "China Mobile and Apple still have to solve many issues, such as the business model, articles of cooperation and revenue division, but I believe we will reach an agreement eventually."
|
|
|
Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 5, 2012 10:20:46 GMT -8
also in a different article- china mobile is creating its own mobile phone most likely google android run.... revenue division. perhaps the subsdidy thing is a real problem..
|
|
|
Post by Zeke on Dec 5, 2012 10:21:35 GMT -8
It should be awesome when we get our supposed "rally" into earnings and it is like 600 dollars a share which was the price from 9 months ago. The stock has been range bound between 500 to 700 for 10 months and most likely won't be out of this range anytime soon. The stock officially is starting to look like it will be trading range bound between 500 to 700 for a prolonged period in the future irrespective of fundamentals, price targets, cash, dividend, cheapness, earnings, product demand, supply, and reason. The stock looks trapped in this range and will need a miracle ie a brand new product or out of this world earnings beat to get out of this range. At least until we hit a P/E of 1.0. Or maybe when cash on hand equals market cap?
|
|
|
Post by vikesfaniv on Dec 5, 2012 10:24:20 GMT -8
I looked up the #'s. At the same conference last year AT&T said it sold 6 million smartphones in the first two months of the quarter (for 2011). They finished the quarter at 9.4 million smartphones. So they saw about a 10% uptick in sales in December for 3.4 million in sales.
Using the same logic for this year, 6.4 million smartphones for the first 2 months would yield somewhere around 3.6 million for a total of 10 million smartphones for the quarter. This is very modest growth year over year and I think is what is hurting apple. CNBC just harped on this and called it "essentially flat" and that iPhone sales may dissapoint.
The huge point that everyone is missing though is that iPhone 4S was never supply constrained like the 5. Now that supply has finally caught up a bit I expect a much larger December for iPhone as compared to last year. But that would be too in depth analysis for the talking heads on CNBC.
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
|
Post by Ted on Dec 5, 2012 10:29:34 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by wraithyouth on Dec 5, 2012 10:29:36 GMT -8
This Ok Go song and video from a few years ago is a comfort today... www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJKythlXAIYThe title, for anyone not interested in the link, is: This Too Shall Pass
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2012 10:35:17 GMT -8
I looked up the #'s. At the same conference last year AT&T said it sold 6 million smartphones in the first two months of the quarter (for 2011). They finished the quarter at 9.4 million smartphones. So they saw about a 10% uptick in sales in December for 3.4 million in sales. Using the same logic for this year, 6.4 million smartphones for the first 2 months would yield somewhere around 3.6 million for a total of 10 million smartphones for the quarter. This is very modest growth year over year and I think is what is hurting apple. CNBC just harped on this and called it "essentially flat" and that iPhone sales may dissapoint. The huge point that everyone is missing though is that iPhone 4S was never supply constrained like the 5. Now that supply has finally caught up a bit I expect a much larger December for iPhone as compared to last year. But that would be too in depth analysis for the talking heads on CNBC. There is no clue on what percentage of phones are iPhones - even if growth at AT&T is only 10% for all smartphones, it's possible that iPhone makes up a larger percentage of sales, and consequently Apple could have much higher than 10% growth on AT&T.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 5, 2012 10:38:16 GMT -8
The huge point that everyone is missing though is that iPhone 4S was never supply constrained like the 5. Now that supply has finally caught up a bit I expect a much larger December for iPhone as compared to last year. But that would be too in depth analysis for the talking heads on CNBC. Talking heads don't have time to look at things logically. They have to keep talking.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2012 10:40:49 GMT -8
You know, if we had a nice steady rise from the start of the year to today's price of $550, I would be rather happy.
|
|