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Post by Deleted on Dec 5, 2012 23:46:21 GMT -8
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Post by bribery on Dec 6, 2012 0:05:43 GMT -8
Thanks for the early switch. When Munster says "We believe this 20% decline is to be expected coming off of a launch quarter", is he implying an iPhone 5S by March?
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Post by vikesfaniv on Dec 6, 2012 0:29:38 GMT -8
iPad mini ship times down to 1 week for all models. May not matter tomorrow given this downtrend but I definitely think it will matter come January earnings. Just gotta buckle up and make it to January.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 6, 2012 0:40:25 GMT -8
Hah!
iPhone 5S in MARCH?
That would actually be awesome in a few ways, but let's not get all iPad 3 over here. iPhone 5 is NO iPad 3.
OTOH, Apple trying to move iPhone back to a summer blockbuster as was the case until iPhone 4S? I can see that.
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Post by bribery on Dec 6, 2012 0:44:39 GMT -8
Hah! iPhone 5S in MARCH? That would actually be awesome in a few ways, but let's not get all iPad 3 over here. iPhone 5 is NO iPad 3. OTOH, Apple trying to move iPhone back to a summer blockbuster as was the case until iPhone 4S? I can see that. So what does the previously quoted statement mean to you (Munster's)?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 6, 2012 1:35:04 GMT -8
Oh, that? I only glanced at that one quote in isolation but I'd guess Munster is talking sequential drop off in iPhone 5 activations by a US carrier given full availability in a quarter...though we won't have it this quarter.
Three points: US market saturation considerations (what regions really drive growth), YOY compares would be more constructive for the market region/carrier in question, the Tim Cook Demand Curve Model(tm).
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Post by appledoc on Dec 6, 2012 1:53:24 GMT -8
I posted this yesterday, but if there is an iPhone 5S in the March quarter, I expect it to be a new form factor (larger or smaller). Remember the rumor from Digitimes a couple of weeks ago that the new iPhone was already in the test production phase and slated for a Q2 release? I can be hopeful...
With the way things are going right now, why not buy back 100M shares? You remove more than 10% of the float, stock price soars, everyone wins. I've never been one to clamor for the CEO to interfere, but something needs to be said or done here. I'll be interested to see the interview tonight. Although I'm not sure how much help it will be.
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Post by tourist on Dec 6, 2012 1:58:54 GMT -8
<Humor> Requiem for Planet Earth
The Earth, as some of you may remember, was willfully destroyed by the business entity Apple, Inc. in 2018. After years of being belittled by news organizations that blatantly harbored a visceral hatred for this too successful company, and whose stock was openly and freely manipulated by high frequency traders and their evermore sophisticated computer algorithms (it might be remembered that the Economic War of 2015 was started by a sophisticated attack against Apple's stock, which led to a widespread collapse of financial markets in a matter of minutes that year), Cook decided to once-and-for-all show the world that Apple really were a going concern.
Taking a cue from another company, the retailer Amazon, Apple decided in the second fiscal quarter of 2013 to sell every one of their products at below cost. As they had one of the largest cash surpluses in the world at the time, they reasoned that they could decimate every one of their competitors, in every one of their markets, by absorbing the cash loss on each of their products sold, without ever really putting their company at risk.
Unfortunately, Apple was already taxing the manufacturing capacity of most of the world's electronics fabricators (and straining the resources of both Federal Express and UPS to the breaking point), and were barely able to satisfy existing demand for their products. The buying frenzy that the price reductions brought about put an astronomically high-value on every electronics fabricator globally. A number of governments decided to seize the facilities within their borders in order to profit off the Apple-induced buying frenzy. China invaded South Korea in order to annex theirs. Some of these countries were able to extinguish their outstanding national debts via the profits of their nationalized fabrication facilities.
As the frenzy continued, increased violent attacks against transporters, stores, and even people on the street led the US Congress to attempt to mitigate the problem by declaring abortion illegal. Unrelenting, Cook decided to pay people to own Apple's products by adding a free voucher for each Apple item purchased for free overnight shipping to anywhere in the world regardless of the source or the weight of their shipments. When asked why he would do something so stupid, he pointed out that this was a calculated risk to bring most of the Earth's population into Apple's ecosystem within the year. "Imagine," he said, "what we can do when we have over six and a half billion people with one-click purchasing ability!"
The stock soared to $24,750 a share, which by this time reflected a PE ratio of over 6,000.
Investors, however, pointed out that the share price evidenced ongoing manipulation by HFTs and their software algorithms which for some unexplained reason, preferred nice round numbers like that. Their warning went unheeded by the SEC, which instead announced a crackdown on the use of small accounting firms in strip malls by major US brokerage firms, closing their investigation into the Madoff affair.
Cook's strategy was successful. His two biggest competitors, Samsung and Nokia, went out of business after their markets collapsed and their manufacturing partners shifted their capacity to the much more lucrative Apple contracts. But in the wake of their collapse, and the associated economic disruption in South Korea, North Korea saw an opportunity to finally get some respect in the world by invading South Korea. North Korea, in case you have forgotten, was at that time just slightly more disrespected than Apple. They launched their attack on the morning of October 5th, 2018, honoring their unwitting benefactor's death. Unfortunately, one of their missiles missed their targets, overflying the South Korean peninsula, striking mainland China and also hitting a US carrier in the Sea of Japan. This led to immediate reprisals by the US forces in Japan, thinking they were being attacked by North Korea, and by China, thinking they were being attacked by government hold-outs in South Korea (a lone Chinese engineer misread his radar display and erroneously reported the origin of the incoming missiles). The attacks quickly escalated world-wide.
After being moved to a safe location, the US Congress lowered the Capital Gains tax rate to 2.5% and adjourned for an extended holiday, unable to make any progress on the question of whether or not religious organizations should be excluded from the new national health care regulations requiring medical insurance for their employees which included coverage for abortions. </Humor>
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Post by wheeles on Dec 6, 2012 2:21:43 GMT -8
Talk of iPhone 5S certainly makes me think that we get a new numbered phone once a year and a speed upgrade half way through the year. I vaguely remember either Steve or Tim talking about the shorter upgrade cycles for phones and this would fit with that.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 6, 2012 2:28:35 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Dec 6, 2012 3:22:52 GMT -8
Are we going to see the gap filled this morning down to 528-530 and then a reversal?
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Post by rob_london on Dec 6, 2012 3:36:28 GMT -8
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Dec 6, 2012 3:36:52 GMT -8
From yesterdays thread: CM are predictably and quite rightly "playing the game" publicly. This latest bluster is true to form, and tbh a sound tactic to try to use this latest media storm against Apple as a lever for better terms. All whilst Apple won't give them the phone yet anyway, as supply volume doesn't support it. The reality though is as we've seen elsewhere many times, device demand > carrier loyalty, especially where Apple is concerned. If CM try too hard to hold out, Apple can just turn a mere smidgeon of its cash pile to some overwhelming Chinese iPhone marketing co-op with the two existing carriers. At that point either CM will squeal and roll over, or their subscriber base will suffer badly. Either way, there is no great risk to Apple here. They still hold the trump card.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 6, 2012 4:19:34 GMT -8
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Post by flyonthewall on Dec 6, 2012 4:27:25 GMT -8
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Post by brazilnuts on Dec 6, 2012 4:28:53 GMT -8
Good morning, just dropped by yesterday to say hello to my old friends. Have absolutely no intention to be defending myself because I used the word caution. On investing will always say CAUTION. If the stock was trending higher would do the same. A dear friend that contacted me a couple of weeks ago heard the same from me before seeing the stock recovering a bit until the drama yesterday. Said to him it feels odd, sidelined for the time being. Some investors like the one that writes to you listens to his guts. With this kind of volatility, why would somebody put at risk their hard earned money or lifetime savings on short term trading? Long term investors in AAPL have nothing to fear as the stock is sound and the company rock solid. On a downtrend sizable movements up or down are expected and represent good opportunity to seasoned investors. AAPL was always volatile, hence the preference as a trading instrument. Nevertheless, the experienced investor knows when to stop and wait for a better entry. Just reminding, investment is not casino playing. We have been together for many years and now we have a new home to connect, exchange investment ideas, make long lasting friendships, even if on the virtual world. Its Christmas Season and I just wanted to stop by and say hello to all in this spirit. Love to all!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 6, 2012 4:37:46 GMT -8
Nuts, don't be a stranger. I miss the morning commentary and coffee that used to start my day.
Caution is ALWAYS warranted in any endeavor. This board needs all types of voices, especially those with a perspective like yours.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 6, 2012 4:43:24 GMT -8
@asymco: Apple CEO Tim Cook announces plans to manufacture Mac computers in USA - Rock Center with Brian Williams t.co/ONJPfapLMercel will be salivating over the television comments at the end og the interview....
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 6, 2012 4:46:44 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 6, 2012 4:51:47 GMT -8
@asymco: Apple CEO Tim Cook announces plans to manufacture Mac computers in USA - Rock Center with Brian Williams t.co/ONJPfapLMercel will be salivating over the television comments at the end og the interview.... I just read it. APPLE HDTV IS COMING FOLKS! What’s next for Apple? Did Cook leave us with a clue?
“When I go into my living room and turn on the TV, I feel like I have gone backwards in time by 20 to 30 years,” Cook told Williams. “It’s an area of intense interest. I can’t say more than that.”
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 6, 2012 5:03:32 GMT -8
The NBC site is crashing. This is good news.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 6, 2012 5:03:48 GMT -8
The interview will air tonight 10 EST on NBC's Rock Center
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 6, 2012 5:23:20 GMT -8
in other news, AAPL is going to get a new weekly today!!
IMHO: The monthlys volatility are based on long term conviction.
The weeklys are based on short term conviction.
This week's weekly is up to 56.44% volatility on my TOS screen before the open.
The December monthly is up to 41.88% The last December weekly (the last week in December) has always been lower. Before Thanksgiving, it was 27% when the December monthly was 31%. That weekly is now up to 37.5%
It will be interesting to see where the new Weekly will be after a few hours. The new weekly will be for the first week in January.
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Post by lance on Dec 6, 2012 5:29:37 GMT -8
Safe to say we will get more overblown reactions again today on some pointless story that has no bearing on the company overall and claim it is the most important news about the company in years. ie COR or digitimes or Nokia deal or death cross stories yesterday. May be todays are "Tim Cook is doing an interview, so Apple's secrecy gone" or "No special dividend those cash hogs are costing shareholders billions" It is a complete waste of time trying to justify aapl's daily swings. Plain and simple they don't make sense. AAPL could easily be worth 750 dollars or 400 dollars today and the media would find justification for either scenario.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 6, 2012 5:31:48 GMT -8
Good morning, just dropped by yesterday to say hello to my old friends. Have absolutely no intention to be defending myself because I used the word caution. On investing will always say CAUTION. If the stock was trending higher would do the same. A dear friend that contacted me a couple of weeks ago heard the same from me before seeing the stock recovering a bit until the drama yesterday. Said to him it feels odd, sidelined for the time being. Some investors like the one that writes to you listens to his guts. With this kind of volatility, why would somebody put at risk their hard earned money or lifetime savings on short term trading? Long term investors in AAPL have nothing to fear as the stock is sound and the company rock solid. On a downtrend sizable movements up or down are expected and represent good opportunity to seasoned investors. AAPL was always volatile, hence the preference as a trading instrument. Nevertheless, the experienced investor knows when to stop and wait for a better entry. Just reminding, investment is not casino playing. We have been together for many years and now we have a new home to connect, exchange investment ideas, make long lasting friendships, even if on the virtual world. Its Christmas Season and I just wanted to stop by and say hello to all in this spirit. Love to all! Can't begin to tell you how happy I was to see you post yesterday. Welcome home.
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Post by chasmac on Dec 6, 2012 5:42:53 GMT -8
Down 5.00 in PM, at least it's not % ;D
Wondering how much margin selling is still coming. At least jobless claims were steady. No news there.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 6, 2012 5:47:45 GMT -8
Are we going to see the gap filled this morning down to 528-530 and then a reversal? I would like that. Let's see...
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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 6, 2012 5:49:46 GMT -8
Down 5.00 in PM, at least it's not % ;D Wondering how much margin selling is still coming. At least jobless claims were steady. No news there. Much better than it was earlier. Was down $12 earlier this morning.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 6, 2012 5:50:36 GMT -8
Nuts, don't be a stranger. I miss the morning commentary and coffee that used to start my day. Caution is ALWAYS warranted in any endeavor. This board needs all types of voices, especially those with a perspective like yours. +1 Always SO wonderful to see you and read your perspective, Nuts!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 6, 2012 5:55:33 GMT -8
Down 5.00 in PM, at least it's not % ;D Wondering how much margin selling is still coming. At least jobless claims were steady. No news there. Much better than it was earlier. Was down $12 earlier this morning. Great. Let's call that our retest of the lows and get on with the damn reversal (to uptrend), shall we? I'm banning myself from my accounts again today. I put my orders in last night, and I will just watch charts -- not portfolio fluctuations.
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