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Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 10:36:31 GMT -8
After watching Tim Cook last night, I think the biggest thing that bothered me was the tactical error of giving NBC that access to begin with. SJ was famous for only giving access to perceived Apple friends - our friend Walt... NBC is the lowest rated network, with a side business channel CNBC determined to prevent their success (way beyond Melissa Lee) it may be a Comcast Universal thing. Why not do 60 Minutes (CBS) or 20/20 (ABC) instead? CNBC.com headline writers go out of their way to slant the headlines -- click bait whores no better than SA... IMO He said virtually nothing new from a stock perspective. For those of us, who listens to his earnings calls and presentations there was nothing new.
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Post by Zeke on Dec 7, 2012 10:44:10 GMT -8
This article is inarguably true. It's pure math and reality based on how the large funds, who are the principle Apple investors at this point, operate. And it contains a remedy: Apple could “open up” another investor market. Retail investors like us could buy the stock. Retail investors tend to be longer-term investors, buying and holding a stock, particularly one with which they can identify. But retail investors view Apple’s stock as “expensive” because it carries now a $600+ price tag. Retail investors often get hung up with “expensive” because of the price level, not thinking about valuation. Apple is one of the least expensive stocks on the market in terms of valuation, trading at a discount to the overall market. Consider a stock that costs $600 and delivers $50 earnings per share is no different than owning 10 shares of a $60 stock delivering $5 earnings per share. If this is explained to an experienced retail investor, the response often still is “yes, of course, $600 is too much to pay for a share of stock.” Apple needs to split its stock to bring in retail investors, open up the market for another set of investors to hold the stock and let their biggest fans enjoy the company growth. A while back they said the reason they were reluctant to split it is that the institutions who own 70% of the stock find it less expensive to trade a large priced stock. We are retail investors. We invest from a rational analytical viewpoint. In our frame of reference AAPL is a screaming buy, with good fundamentals, a low P/E and excellent performance. From an institutional investor's frame of reference other realities come into play, like portfolio design rules, taxes, dividend payments, fiduciary responsibilities, etc. It's very much like a mom & pop hamburger stand versus McDonalds. It's a matter of scale. If you sell a billion burgers, saving $.01 per burger is significant money. If you sell 1000 burgers that same savings is irrelevant. If you are McDonalds you are making decisions for millions of shareholders. If you own the mom & pop you answer to no one but yourself. There is a huge disconnect in any human endeavor between private and public policy. Fund managers are making decisions in the realm of public policy. You and I are making personal policy decisions.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 10:49:36 GMT -8
Some people here need to get some perspective - AAPL is up a large amount this year. The current price exceeds many of our year end predictions made at the beginning of the year.
Be patient.
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Post by lance on Dec 7, 2012 10:58:14 GMT -8
Bernard, I will stop adding haha if it is offending. I am using it as a sarcastic laugh not to poke fun at people on here. I am not mocking anyone for losing money. I assume any long term holders are losing money so I am not poking fun at anyone. I am adding the haha to show how stupid and silly this trading has been recently. Thats it. This stock action has been making me question why I am investing in this company and why invest in the stock market at all if it doesn't trade on fundamentals. But from I will stop adding haha to all the rest of my messages.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 10:59:46 GMT -8
Some people here need to get some perspective - AAPL is up a large amount this year. The current price exceeds many of our year end predictions made at the beginning of the year. Be patient. You are the second person to point this out. It is irrelevant. You are conveniently picking the year as the measuring stick. Most people measure account value and do not go back to Jan1 to make themselves feel better. Besides the obvious drop from Sept, it is also down from April. I really do wish you guys would quit with this. If you are all shares, good for you, the rest of us have not been so fortunate. BTW, Avi is now looking for much lower.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 7, 2012 11:00:22 GMT -8
I'm a loser. At my works Christmas party at D&B and I can't stop myself from checking the price every 5 min since it broke 534. I need to stop caring about this BS
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Post by alice on Dec 7, 2012 11:02:29 GMT -8
Some people here need to get some perspective - AAPL is up a large amount this year. The current price exceeds many of our year end predictions made at the beginning of the year. Be patient. You are the second person to point this out. It is irrelevant. You are conveniently picking the year as the measuring stick. Most people measure account value and do not go back to Jan1 to make themselves feel better. Besides the obvious drop from Sept, it is also down from April. I really do wish you guys would quit with this. If you are all shares, good for you, the rest of us have not been so fortunate. BTW, Avi is now looking for much lower. How much lower (Avi)? Thanks.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 11:05:10 GMT -8
BTW, Avi is now looking for much lower. lower than his 500 bottom?
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Post by tourist on Dec 7, 2012 11:08:54 GMT -8
Some people here need to get some perspective - AAPL is up a large amount this year. The current price exceeds many of our year end predictions made at the beginning of the year. Be patient. Like others here, I've made money on Apple this year. I don't trade options, I just hold long positions. I too believe that this price action is ridiculous, and I held the stock much too long. But then I almost cut my finger off the other night watching Apple once again deflating (I'm living in France now, thank you Apple!). I was cutting vegetables for dinner and I wasn't paying attention to what I was doing--I was watching Apple's stock once again tanking. After I mopped up the blood and stanched the gash in my thumb, I dumped all my Apple stock. That was Tuesday and I've been smiling ever since. I'm just waiting to jump back in, so every dollar that Apple goes down at this point is more money I'll make later. So here's my point: why does everyone say to hold on? I love Apple. It's the only stock I will invest in. But when the stock is behaving like it's not a going concern, what's the point of 'suckin' it up'? I held on and I'm down like everybody else. I know a lot of you are into FA and others are into TA of this stock, but frankly this behavior seems not to be stochastic , nor value driven, but just alternately fear and greed driven. That's hard to model statistically (unless you're Harry Seldon). I won't even bother trying to make sense of this, but when the tide turns, I'll be there. In the meantime, I've lowered my stress level to the point of actually being able to enjoy life again, and like I said, I'm living a privileged life now because of this company and it's stock. But I'm not taking one for the 'gipper'. It doesn't help Apple, and if they're concerned about the lowered stock price, they can do something about it.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 11:09:39 GMT -8
Some people here need to get some perspective - AAPL is up a large amount this year. The current price exceeds many of our year end predictions made at the beginning of the year. Be patient. You are the second person to point this out. It is irrelevant. You are conveniently picking the year as the measuring stick. Most people measure account value and do not go back to Jan1 to make themselves feel better. Besides the obvious drop from Sept, it is also down from April. I really do wish you guys would quit with this. If you are all shares, good for you, the rest of us have not been so fortunate. BTW, Avi is now looking for much lower. I always judge my own portfolio to that of apples yearly performance - if I've bettered it I'm happy, if I've done worse then I feel I've invested stupidly.
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Post by lobo on Dec 7, 2012 11:11:44 GMT -8
This is really getting to me too. The temptation to sell common and buy in the money calls is overwhelming. I am even considering taking a home equity loan to buy more shares. This combination of technicals and "fiscal cliff" FUD has created the best buying opportunity since fall of 2008. Time to suck it up and make the move. I am facing the same type of pressure on my end as well. I've have to agree that this is definitely a great opportunity. I'm lucky that I still have some ammo left to work with. I've got bids in for Jan14 580's and am waiting for the price to continue to head down to my bid. Like a lot of folks I have been sitting on some really stagnant investments for a long while. So far I have been lucky with Apple and it has shocked that stagnant account back to life. At these levels I'm willing to give them another shot.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 7, 2012 11:13:50 GMT -8
Some people here need to get some perspective - AAPL is up a large amount this year. The current price exceeds many of our year end predictions made at the beginning of the year. Be patient. You are the second person to point this out. It is irrelevant. You are conveniently picking the year as the measuring stick. Most people measure account value and do not go back to Jan1 to make themselves feel better. Besides the obvious drop from Sept, it is also down from April. I really do wish you guys would quit with this. If you are all shares, good for you, the rest of us have not been so fortunate. BTW, Avi is now looking for much lower. I am that second person, and stand by what I say. My trading portfolio is down about 80% since this started, and it could easily go to 100%, but I think it is pointless to get on here and post endlessly about how much I am upset by it, or all the supposed conspiracies behind the pull back. There is no value in that. For me at least. I know I am in the minority on this point of view, and most everyone else must think there is great value in this endless stream of "woe is me" stuff. I just don't get it though.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 11:19:12 GMT -8
You are the second person to point this out. It is irrelevant. You are conveniently picking the year as the measuring stick. Most people measure account value and do not go back to Jan1 to make themselves feel better. Besides the obvious drop from Sept, it is also down from April. I really do wish you guys would quit with this. If you are all shares, good for you, the rest of us have not been so fortunate. BTW, Avi is now looking for much lower. I always judge my own portfolio to that of apples yearly performance - if I've bettered it I'm happy, if I've done worse then I feel I've invested stupidly. Well call me stupid. Up until Sept I was up big, then the rug was pulled out. Call it stupid, call it anything you want, but everyone is different and their results are different. They measure from different points. You obviously are content with your results, many of us are not. Harping on AAPL being up X% for the year does not change the sick feeling many of us have.
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Post by geraci on Dec 7, 2012 11:19:56 GMT -8
I would love to be buying with cash at these prices, but I can't. All the cash I have is marked to pay estimated taxes-- and I suspect I am not the only retail investor in this situation. My guess is that AAPL will be on a positive trajectory starting in January. Does anyone remember how this felt in 2008 when many of us sat under water for six months? Hang in there. Apple's fundamentals are still strong.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Dec 7, 2012 11:20:57 GMT -8
The only solace I am finding in this stock action is that with all of the FUD and news stories about supply constraints, I'd say an Apple miss for January earnings is almost all but priced in. In that aspect, I'm hoping for at least some meaningful run up into earnings. Even if it does just get us to 600. Even if Apple's numbers aren't blowout due to some actual supply constraints, my hope is that solid quarter guidance will get the stock back on tract. So what I'm really trying to say is, January can't get here soon enough.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 7, 2012 11:27:27 GMT -8
I find it quite incredible that CNBC always manages to quote people out of context. For the first time in weeks, while getting ready to leave my house, I happened to have CNBC on. It was around 12 and o course the subject was Apple. The conversation was pretty constructive except for the host who just made it obvious he has little to no knowledge about FA or TA. During the conversation Santoli says that this daily rhetoric on Apple has nothing to do with the actual company and hopes the company becomes Just Another Stock in the context I hope it goes back to trading more on FA and becomes just another stock as in not driven solely by news headlines. This term, Just Another Stock has taken a different meaning just in how they use the term in headlines. The exchange was very good and all the analysts sounded pretty much fed up with Apple being a proxy for everything wrong. All said they would be buyers at around these levels and certainly not selling. Actually found the link for the video. I can't play it but I do hope they put in the hole exchange as the dark hair'd fellow said a lot of what we have all been saying as to why we hold on. www.cnbc.com/id/100290560
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 7, 2012 11:28:12 GMT -8
You are the second person to point this out. It is irrelevant. You are conveniently picking the year as the measuring stick. Most people measure account value and do not go back to Jan1 to make themselves feel better. Besides the obvious drop from Sept, it is also down from April. I really do wish you guys would quit with this. If you are all shares, good for you, the rest of us have not been so fortunate. BTW, Avi is now looking for much lower. How much lower (Avi)? Thanks. I'll ask as well...can someone enlighten us on Avi's thinking on this?
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 11:29:18 GMT -8
I just read that Andy Zaky sold out positions for a large loss. There you go Burgess, even AZ has taken a huge hit. I doubt he cares one bit that AAPL is up 30% for the year. I would not be surprised to see AZ's fund liquidated soon. More selling pressure.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 11:29:27 GMT -8
I think last years blowout earnings and the extra week in the christmas season is really going to hurt us this year. If we get EPS of $14 this time, that's an excellent quarter, but because of comparison to last year and the extra holiday week, it won't look so great in comparison.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 7, 2012 11:31:52 GMT -8
How much lower (Avi)? Thanks. I'll ask as well...can someone enlighten us on Avi's thinking on this? 518 or 505? (Fib S2 and 3)
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 11:32:03 GMT -8
I always judge my own portfolio to that of apples yearly performance - if I've bettered it I'm happy, if I've done worse then I feel I've invested stupidly. Well call me stupid. Up until Sept I was up big, then the rug was pulled out. Call it stupid, call it anything you want, but everyone is different and their results are different. They measure from different points. You obviously are content with your results, many of us are not. Harping on AAPL being up X% for the year does not change the sick feeling many of us have. +1 Pls everyone keep it civil. Times are stressful. Pls be sensitive to who have different views and express their stress different ways. PS I really am worried why TC is defending the stock more with its huge cash hoard. I am starting to get worried they have other plans for the $$. A tranformative acquistion would definatively signal AAPL has jumped the shark.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 11:33:42 GMT -8
I think last years blowout earnings and the extra week in the christmas season is really going to hurt us this year. If we get EPS of $14 this time, that's an excellent quarter, but because of comparison to last year and the extra holiday week, it won't look so great in comparison. You got it.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 11:33:56 GMT -8
Normalize the data, please.
One of two things are likely happening IMHO. Inability of many AAPL longs to see beyond their nose (that dense fog of uncertainty!) OR the market's gonna correct or worse soon because no way AAPL goes to 400 (maybe even 480) without spooking the overall markets.
I'm not fully discounting the other possibility though.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 7, 2012 11:37:13 GMT -8
Well call me stupid. Up until Sept I was up big, then the rug was pulled out. Call it stupid, call it anything you want, but everyone is different and their results are different. They measure from different points. You obviously are content with your results, many of us are not. Harping on AAPL being up X% for the year does not change the sick feeling many of us have. +1 Pls everyone keep it civil. Times are stressful. Pls be sensitive to who have different views and express their stress different ways. PS I really am worried why TC is defending the stock more with its huge cash hoard. I am starting to get worried they have other plans for the $$. A tranformative acquistion would definatively signal AAPL has jumped the shark. Let me answer your PS. Perhaps you should peruse the Dungeons thread for the answer. Tim & crew may be able to buy back cheaper in the future. Enough said.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 11:37:25 GMT -8
Psst. Before everyone throws in the towel, keep an eye on the action.
Today may not bring enough clues, but Monday will be helpful. Whoever wanted their H&S pattern now have some pathetic preschool version of it. So now what? is the question from the technical perspective.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 11:37:42 GMT -8
Here is the thing Mav, the market has been moving up this week while AAPL as crashed. If the market corrects, who knows where AAPL goes to? Yes, I am terrified. The past is done, the future is all that matters.
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Post by nathanstevens on Dec 7, 2012 11:44:53 GMT -8
Has anyone used the following indicator with much success?
Prevailing AFB discussion topic = End of World --> Sell sports cars to buy stock
Prevailing AFB discussion topic = Sports cars --> Sell stock to buy sports cars
Something else to keep in mind. 505/126.1 (Sept 2012 BVPS) = 4 705/119.51(June BVPS) = 5.9
BVPS Sept 2013 = 170 170 x 4 = 680 170 x 5.9 = 1003
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Post by fas550 on Dec 7, 2012 11:45:59 GMT -8
I think last years blowout earnings and the extra week in the christmas season is really going to hurt us this year. If we get EPS of $14 this time, that's an excellent quarter, but because of comparison to last year and the extra holiday week, it won't look so great in comparison. You got it. I'm not so sure. The phone was released at an optimal time, the iPad mini pretty good too and at least for buyers in the U.S. Thanksgiving seemed early this year (22nd). Supply constraints gone (if I remember last year TC said they shipped everyone they had or could make). The thing that may hurt is the expectations for the number of phones (if it keeps going up). Another fear I have is that parents will do an either/or to kids on a new iPhone or a mini. May seem meaningless as we'll get the revenue either way BUT if we miss that iPhone estimate they'll be punished and we will put up with months of talk about loosing their edge etc..
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Post by Hoot on Dec 7, 2012 11:49:02 GMT -8
I'll ask as well...can someone enlighten us on Avi's thinking on this? 518 or 505? (Fib S2 and 3) My understanding was that there is an "if" involved.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 11:49:23 GMT -8
I always judge my own portfolio to that of apples yearly performance - if I've bettered it I'm happy, if I've done worse then I feel I've invested stupidly. Well call me stupid. Up until Sept I was up big, then the rug was pulled out. Call it stupid, call it anything you want, but everyone is different and their results are different. They measure from different points. You obviously are content with your results, many of us are not. Harping on AAPL being up X% for the year does not change the sick feeling many of us have. Apologies, was not my intention to insult. I'm also down a massive amount from the September highs (over 50%). Here's some perspective though: In January 2008, AAPL fell 37% over 35 days (this had nothing to do with the credit crunch). Later in 2008, AAPL fell 45% over 50 days (credit crunch). Meanwhile, during 2008, apples iPhone sales were growing at triple figures percentage wise, the company was doing very well. My point being is AAPL has been through much worse drops unconnected to its actual company performance, and has always recovered spectacularly.
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