mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
|
Post by mark on Dec 7, 2012 13:16:17 GMT -8
This article is inarguably true. It's pure math and reality based on how the large funds, who are the principle Apple investors at this point, operate. And it contains a remedy: Apple could “open up” another investor market. Retail investors like us could buy the stock. Retail investors tend to be longer-term investors, buying and holding a stock, particularly one with which they can identify. But retail investors view Apple’s stock as “expensive” because it carries now a $600+ price tag. Retail investors often get hung up with “expensive” because of the price level, not thinking about valuation. Apple is one of the least expensive stocks on the market in terms of valuation, trading at a discount to the overall market. Consider a stock that costs $600 and delivers $50 earnings per share is no different than owning 10 shares of a $60 stock delivering $5 earnings per share. If this is explained to an experienced retail investor, the response often still is “yes, of course, $600 is too much to pay for a share of stock.” Apple needs to split its stock to bring in retail investors, open up the market for another set of investors to hold the stock and let their biggest fans enjoy the company growth. Two stock classes. Class A at $600, and class B at $60 or $30. A la Berkshire Hathaway.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 13:17:58 GMT -8
That second part about shareholders and the roadside? Yeah, didn't quite get that from the TC TV interview.
I would also add dividend.
Considering emailing TC about the stock price, actually. We'll see if I do...
|
|
|
Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 13:20:37 GMT -8
TC tells us that they are laser focused on product and to hell with dying shareholders on the roadside... Quite honestly, better this way than the other way round... I am sure they can do both. I agree if they can chose one. Even announcing a large buyback and NOT actually buying too much with cap the downside and fundementals would matter. Shareholder and potential shareholders are justified in their belief there are no buyers of last resort. TC tone deafness reminds me of Larry Page after their large earnings miss.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 7, 2012 13:20:53 GMT -8
Take a break MB. The weekend helps us all focus on the stuff that's important. Best of luck to all. I'm suffering right along with you if it, uh, helps. Yup. Walk the dog, hug a tree, talk to an insect. I listen to novels (audible.com) to take my mind off this. Also right now drinking a glass of Prosecco. No matter how bad your day is, you drink Prosecco and feel like a party. This will pass. Even the TA analysts are saying to not be left out during the next earnings. Everyone knows the company is solid.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 13:22:00 GMT -8
"Nick has changed his position 100% from two months ago. If you listened to him over the past two months you would be loosing BIG. Back then he was telling all to buy Jan14 700-800 spreads." +1 Suddenly when his predictions aren't working out he is saying that AAPL has "changed" and is now "wildly unpredictable". I call shenanigans! If you are a long term AAPL investor you will have seen solid year on year gains for a long period, punctuated by big short term rises & falls. Saying "this time its different" on one of those big swings is foolish.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 7, 2012 13:23:04 GMT -8
Any talk of Bear Call Spreads? Just wondered if anyone thinks the inverse of the successful strategy is a good mover or not? Maybe too optimistic right now but the reasons to sell are running out and good macro news (like an effing FC agreement) could change the direction pretty quick. I know odds are no but it's certainly more risky now to bet against than last week As we've seen, there doesn't need to be a reason other than technicals to sell off. I'm considering weekly short-term puts. I want to see the open on Monday first.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 7, 2012 13:26:04 GMT -8
Ill repeat my very first post and I still believe it, "C'mon Steve (now TC), throw us a bone will ya. How about a split?" 3:1 should do nicely but no more than 4 (giving us 4B shares). I don't see the downside at this point as I did not then. Is friggen psychological value would be good. How good is anyone's guess
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 13:35:23 GMT -8
As I posted a while back, Nick is of no value. He provided some comfort when things looked bad, back at 630, then imploded, then he changed his format, now he is just grasping. Gauging input from multiple sources is much better than relying on one. AZ gave up today, that is huge news to me and I consider him much more knowledgable than Nick. AZ has a very long track record.
|
|
|
Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 13:38:13 GMT -8
I would also add dividend. The stock is falling $10 per day. A 25% increase would be only 2.65 a year. Buybacks affects psychology and is extremely accretive to EPS. The message has been conveyed to TC/PO. Their answer is the typical cash is a strategic asset crap and they are focused on products. IMO the street is waiting for some concrete actions. If AAPL buys I darn anyone to short. Value Managers will step in. I guarentee it. 130 of cash. $45 of ttm earnings. In 3 years, they could buyback 50% of shares outstanding.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 7, 2012 13:40:57 GMT -8
As I posted a while back, Nick is of no value. He provided some comfort when things looked bad, back at 630, then imploded, then he changed his format, now he is just grasping. Gauging input from multiple sources is much better than relying on one. AZ gave up today, that is huge news to me and I consider him much more knowledgable than Nick. AZ has a very long track record. AZ gave up today? What do you mean? Hadn't seen that or anything else from him for quite some time.
|
|
|
Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 13:42:01 GMT -8
Ill repeat my very first post and I still believe it, "C'mon Steve (now TC), throw us a bone will ya. How about a split?" 3:1 should do nicely but no more than 4 (giving us 4B shares). I don't see the downside at this point as I did not then. Is friggen psychological value would be good. How good is anyone's guess With all due respect, a share split might not do anything for the crappy action. typically, stock splits work to increase (or the perception of) participation as the stock is rising. IMO doing defensively would be not be helpful.
|
|
|
Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 7, 2012 13:43:53 GMT -8
As I posted a while back, Nick is of no value. He provided some comfort when things looked bad, back at 630, then imploded, then he changed his format, now he is just grasping. Gauging input from multiple sources is much better than relying on one. AZ gave up today, that is huge news to me and I consider him much more knowledgable than Nick. AZ has a very long track record. Hey MB...AZ gave up? What do you mean? Is he completely out?
|
|
benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
|
Post by benoir on Dec 7, 2012 13:44:07 GMT -8
I noticed this the other day. I don't do charts but you can't help but notice those 5 points in a line.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 7, 2012 13:46:42 GMT -8
Ill repeat my very first post and I still believe it, "C'mon Steve (now TC), throw us a bone will ya. How about a split?" 3:1 should do nicely but no more than 4 (giving us 4B shares). I don't see the downside at this point as I did not then. Is friggen psychological value would be good. How good is anyone's guess With all due respect, a share split might not do anything for the crappy action. typically, stock splits work to increase (or the perception of) participation as the stock is rising. IMO doing defensively would be not be helpful. Good point. The street would certainly spin it in the most negative way at this moment in time
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 13:49:22 GMT -8
Someone posted on Avi's site said that AZ sold a lot today.
I am not a member of AZ's group, anything I say is second hand info that I heard in Avi's group.
|
|
|
Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 7, 2012 13:54:18 GMT -8
Someone posted on Avi's site said that AZ sold a lot today. I am not a member of AZ's group, anything I say is second hand info that I heard in Avi's group. Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 13:57:21 GMT -8
With all due respect, a share split might not do anything for the crappy action. typically, stock splits work to increase (or the perception of) participation as the stock is rising. IMO doing defensively would be not be helpful. Good point. The street would certainly spin it in the most negative way at this moment in time A 20B dollar buyback authorization over 2 years will make one think twice about sell, shorting and might prompt some cautious buying. TC/PO, please channel your some inner Draghi... "Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough." July 2012 Say "Apple announces it has bought 5B in stock under its buyback plan. The board has approved a 20B buyback program over the next 2 years. The management and board stands ready to protect shareholder/stakeholders if the need arises."
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 13:59:43 GMT -8
I like it.
|
|
|
Post by alice on Dec 7, 2012 14:00:26 GMT -8
November 2012 was a painful month. I hope to see aapl Santa rally and ER run up in jan 2013. I am hoping for a better December.
|
|
|
Post by Hoot on Dec 7, 2012 14:01:20 GMT -8
Crap that isn't what he's saying is he? What's the IF? The IF was making it above 575. The then was 473-500. After that, new ATH. If there's a potential for another 60 points down, I need to capitalize on that the best I can. I've been saying for the past three weeks that I'm going to trade off what Avi says. Well now I'm finally doing it. Better late than never. The '$575' was a signal that the bottom was in. The 'if' I'm talking about is the 2 wave we are in within a 5. 'If' the '2' only goes up to ~535 then we will see a four handle. We since beat $535. As far as I can see we are still in the '2' and could go higher Monday. THAT is the 'IF".
|
|
|
Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 14:03:09 GMT -8
Someone posted on Avi's site said that AZ sold a lot today. I am not a member of AZ's group, anything I say is second hand info that I heard in Avi's group. do you feel that AZ is a sign of complete panic or a sign the poop is about to hit the fan? Investopedia explains 'Capitulation' After capitulation selling, it is thought that there are great bargains to be had. The belief is that everyone who wants to get out of a stock, for any reason (including forced selling due to margin calls), has sold. The price should then, theoretically, reverse or bounce off the lows. In other words, some investors believe that true capitulation is the sign of a bottom. Read more: www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp#ixzz2EPFcfNmp
|
|
|
Post by alice on Dec 7, 2012 14:06:05 GMT -8
The IF was making it above 575. The then was 473-500. After that, new ATH. If there's a potential for another 60 points down, I need to capitalize on that the best I can. I've been saying for the past three weeks that I'm going to trade off what Avi says. Well now I'm finally doing it. Better late than never. The '$575' was a signal that the bottom was in. The 'if' I'm talking about is the 2 wave we are in within a 5. 'If' the '2' only goes up to ~535 then we will see a four handle. We since beat $535. As far as I can see we are still in the '2' and could go higher Monday. THAT is the 'IF". Hoot, it is not clear to me. Will you please write it in an 'If then else' format and not clear about the wave count either. Thanks.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 7, 2012 14:08:21 GMT -8
Good point. The street would certainly spin it in the most negative way at this moment in time A 20B dollar buyback authorization over 2 years will make one think twice about sell, shorting and might prompt some cautious buying. TC/PO, please channel your some inner Draghi... "Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough." July 2012 Say "Apple announces it has bought 5B in stock under its buyback plan. The board has approved a 20B buyback program over the next 2 years. The management and board stands ready to protect shareholder/stakeholders if the need arises." 20B over the course of two years is simply not enough. I would like them to be more aggressive RIGHT NOW. I don't think the time will ever be better than in the immediate future. Because if shit does hit the fan and our growth completely stalls or we start contracting, a buy back won't matter. I don't believe that is going to happen any time soon, so do the damn buy back now.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 7, 2012 14:09:33 GMT -8
The IF was making it above 575. The then was 473-500. After that, new ATH. If there's a potential for another 60 points down, I need to capitalize on that the best I can. I've been saying for the past three weeks that I'm going to trade off what Avi says. Well now I'm finally doing it. Better late than never. The '$575' was a signal that the bottom was in. The 'if' I'm talking about is the 2 wave we are in within a 5. 'If' the '2' only goes up to ~535 then we will see a four handle. We since beat $535. As far as I can see we are still in the '2' and could go higher Monday. THAT is the 'IF". I need time to understand the waves. All I know is that Avi has commented today on both MW and SA that 473-500 is his next target.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 7, 2012 14:13:27 GMT -8
Someone posted on Avi's site said that AZ sold a lot today. I am not a member of AZ's group, anything I say is second hand info that I heard in Avi's group. do you feel that AZ is a sign of complete panic or a sign the poop is about to hit the fan? Investopedia explains 'Capitulation' After capitulation selling, it is thought that there are great bargains to be had. The belief is that everyone who wants to get out of a stock, for any reason (including forced selling due to margin calls), has sold. The price should then, theoretically, reverse or bounce off the lows. In other words, some investors believe that true capitulation is the sign of a bottom. Read more: www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp#ixzz2EPFcfNmpAZ has been panicking since we went below 615 and his first call to buy. It's been hard to pay much attention to him over the past month.
|
|
|
Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 14:13:56 GMT -8
A 20B dollar buyback authorization over 2 years will make one think twice about sell, shorting and might prompt some cautious buying. TC/PO, please channel your some inner Draghi... "Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough." July 2012 Say "Apple announces it has bought 5B in stock under its buyback plan. The board has approved a 20B buyback program over the next 2 years. The management and board stands ready to protect shareholder/stakeholders if the need arises." 20B over the course of two years is simply not enough. I would like them to be more aggressive RIGHT NOW. I don't think the time will ever be better than in the immediate future. Because if shit does hit the fan and our growth completely stalls or we start contracting, a buy back won't matter. I don't believe that is going to happen any time soon, so do the damn buy back now. It would be only a pipedream for them to announce more than that. PO has stated it want to keep ample dry powder of onshore cash. They have 40B on-shore. So, 20B is 1/2 of that. Obviously, the 80B offshore is still there but AAPL is too chicken shit to do what it should. Issue on shore debt backed by the offshore cash and cashflow. They can alway increase the size as and when they need.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 14:14:15 GMT -8
As I posted a while back, Nick is of no value. He provided some comfort when things looked bad, back at 630, then imploded, then he changed his format, now he is just grasping. Gauging input from multiple sources is much better than relying on one. AZ gave up today, that is huge news to me and I consider him much more knowledgable than Nick. AZ has a very long track record. I don't read that much into AZ's selling or something (I don't know what he's doing since I'm not subscribing). Be cautious of the excessively opinionated. I'm not saying ignore them, I'm not saying they can't be hugely successful. DO NOT take their actions as gospel. Zaky flips bear Monday? OK. But I'll keep watching the price action and ultimately keep making my own moves and mistakes, same as I've done for more than 10 years and three (four?) extended downwaves.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 7, 2012 14:14:45 GMT -8
OK, time to stop being so glum. Three weeks left in the quarter, and there's this little thing called "Christmas' in it. Then, three weeks after the end of the quarter, we'll get to see all those numbers. I am very bullish on Q1 and Q2. Just need to hang on. We had a rough Q4 2011, what with the greatest CEO of all time dying and all. And then what happened? AAPL 12/7/11- 4/9/12Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 14:15:26 GMT -8
Damn straight, JD! yes that's right I'm agreeing with JD, pretty crazy huh EDIT: Wait...the Germans? (I gotta watch that movie one of these days...)
|
|
|
Post by ibuyer on Dec 7, 2012 14:16:14 GMT -8
AZ has been panicking since we went below 615 and his first call to buy. It's been hard to pay much attention to him over the past month. do you know if sold out of his option positions only or even his stocks? I know he uses a lot of BCS... but also a stock portfolio.
|
|