Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 14:21:31 GMT -8
Tap water and pretzels, bartender, budget's a little tight this week
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 14:27:53 GMT -8
[AWESOME/TERRIBLE] NEWS: ( ) iPhone 5 is now showing IN STOCK. [Not too shabby/horrifying] after about 2.5 months of dealing with [intense/rapidly waning] demand. Tim Cook shows his [SCM competency/that he made a terrible mistake mismanaging the suddenly tanking demand curve] once again! (Guess which ones I'd pick.)
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 7, 2012 14:32:11 GMT -8
I turned on my Christmas lights and have some favorite stuff going. All Creatures Great And Small and MASH for now.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 14:37:09 GMT -8
[AWESOME/TERRIBLE] NEWS: ( ) iPhone 5 is now showing IN STOCK. [Not too shabby/horrifying] after about 2.5 months of dealing with [intense/rapidly waning] demand. Tim Cook shows his [SCM competency/that he made a terrible mistake mismanaging the suddenly tanking demand curve] once again! (Guess which ones I'd pick.)
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Post by rosie on Dec 7, 2012 15:40:44 GMT -8
and shipping/delivery times are improving...my iMac will be here on Weds and an iPad mini on Thurs
no "ha ha" but is "ho ho ho" ok? :-)
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 7, 2012 15:55:36 GMT -8
Like most here, I don't know what to think in the short term...the price action is just so irrational (and I know all the bromides about markets staying irrational longer than I can stay solvent...too true) but now I'll be looking at some pruning of positions next week, taking losses againt gains booked for the year. Gee....a Jan 14 600/620 BCS....I always thout that little gem would prove a winner. Might still........but it will probably be chopped in favor of similar positions out longer on the "risk" curve...
I spent a few minutes going over Yahoo Finance on AAPL's fundamentals. I looked at QCOM's 18 P/E, MSFT's 14.30. Starbucks has a P/E of 29 and Costco 25. Good companies....growing and spinning off cash....but in the same class as AAPL?
Somethings just not right. But what?
Iphone sales in South Korea drew huge lines....China next. Ipad mini is on everyone's shopping list. Production is up, meeting demand better every day. Imacs are coming sooner than originally forecast. T-Mobile gets the Iphone. CM and Apple are talking...again. TC just about hit us over the head last night with the hint-hint-wink-wink that Apple TV is a'coming.
I'm puzzled and a bit disheartened.
Well, at least I'm not Walter White.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 15:59:02 GMT -8
Simplifying the game for oneself never hurts.
Non-advice thinking-out-loud:
Keep cash on hand _at_ hand for now.
AAPL breaks 530 ("decisively", obviously a subjective thing)? Nibble a BPS play, maybe.
AAPL breaks 518/505? Expect to see selling pressure, maybe I'll test some additional hedges there too.
AAPL breaks 500? Short AMZN.
AAPL doesn't really move? Potentially good sign, considering the two H&Ses that technicals traders could choose...only one of which looks all that "classic" of a pattern, btw.
It can't be AAPL OR the market. AAPL's fundamentals are too strong. I say IF AAPL (crashes), then the market ALSO takes a dip/dive.
Stay as mentally nimble as possible.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 16:08:00 GMT -8
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Post by macziggy on Dec 7, 2012 16:09:39 GMT -8
I subscribed to Andy Zaky until a month ago. I don't want to speak badly about the experience, but for me it was a huge warning about how much trust to put in any "analyst." For me, that means developing my own center of gravity when it comes to this stock or any stock for that matter. I have come to revere iPad's buy spread way-out philosophy....just for safety.
I stopped following many of his suggestions during the parabolic run last Spring when he kept shorting AAPL and insisting that he was right and everyone else would be wrong. So, if you followed him then, you really missed the whole run and probably lost a lot of money then.
I did value tremendously his chart analysis and I learned much from his perspective. That was really the only reason I still stayed as a subscriber.
He (and those following him on Bullish CRoss) were heavily invested in January 2013 call spreads, specifically, the 600/650 and the 655/705 spreads. The 600/650 was bought for about $17 last Spring....that spread is now going for $4.50--I sold all but 3 of mine at 680, thank God!! Andy last recommended the 655/705 in August @ $20. AAPL was around 645 at the time. That spread is now worth $1.05. (I sold all of those at 680 as well).
I am illustrating this not to be mean to Andy (he's a really likable guy), just to illustrate the high stakes that were involved at Bullish Cross. When everyone was buying these spreads last April, everything about Apple seemed secure. These spreads seemed absolutely OK. No one, me included, ever expected a $200 drop just like that and for the spreads to be all but washed out.
I do feel enormous sadness for anyone holding those spreads. AAPL may still shoot up before the January expiration, but, it seems the odds are not in favor of that.
Here's what I want from Apple....not a special dividend, but a different Christmas present....a surprise 4-1 split next week. I think Scott Redler is right....it is one way Apple can protect the stock from the hedge fund manipulators by making the stock more accessible to retail investors who won't be selling it every day and who think that $500 is too much to pay for 1 share of AAPL (even though we all know it is undervalued).
I feel it's time for AAPL to go this route. Or, at least, initiate a big buyback. They just have to support the stock price more.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 16:11:54 GMT -8
E-mail Tim about it. I'm considering it myself.
If you're gonna be a successful self-directed trader long-term, it's required that you be, well, self-directed. Maybe I'm been at this long enough to reach this realization but it really doesn't seem that profound an observation. You could always lose, but at least it's on your own terms and from your own mistakes.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 16:19:56 GMT -8
Hm...might be touching on some nerves. Just putting it out there: It's when things seem bleakest that cooler heads have the advantage. Several here can provide their fair share of stock market "war stories" and battle-hardened perspective if you care to hear from them.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 7, 2012 16:22:24 GMT -8
You know what we need the most? A solid Q1 beat to shut everyone the F up. That is the only thing that will get us going and keep us going. A split would be nice. A buy back would be nice. But it's only temporary.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 16:23:24 GMT -8
A solid _normalized_ Q1 beat? Yup, it'll help more than any "artificial" measure.
And check it out, the single most important Apple product line has caught up with demand today.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 7, 2012 16:25:01 GMT -8
Hm...might be touching on some nerves. Just putting it out there: It's when things seem bleakest that cooler heads have the advantage. Several here can provide their fair share of stock market "war stories" and battle-hardened perspective if you care to hear from them. We should all watch 300 this weekend like Johnny Heisman did before beating Alabama.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 7, 2012 16:45:06 GMT -8
Hm...might be touching on some nerves. Just putting it out there: It's when things seem bleakest that cooler heads have the advantage. Several here can provide their fair share of stock market "war stories" and battle-hardened perspective if you care to hear from them. We should all watch 300 this weekend like Johnny Heisman did before beating Alabama. Ahh...I can remember when all of us on the old AFB were excited that the stock price reached 300! We had the movie poster mocked up and everything. Prepare for Glory!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 16:54:37 GMT -8
Or 500? Just to be safe...
Prepare for Anything!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 17:23:31 GMT -8
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Post by alice on Dec 7, 2012 17:52:12 GMT -8
I believe aapl is being sold to lock in long term capital gains for the year. I just wasn't expecting aapl to drop this much.
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Post by roni on Dec 7, 2012 17:53:07 GMT -8
We're holding:
28% cash 42.7% dividend positions (ex-AAPL) - spread across 14 companies 28.4% AAPL shares and options - a little April, a lot Jan 2014, a little Jan 2015 2.9% QCOM Jan 2014 $62.50's
Still up comfortably in low triple digits for the year and pretty comfortable with what we're holding. Will buy more Apples on further dips, if that happens. If not, we'll see. May add some more dividend positions in the iWife's IRA.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 17:54:03 GMT -8
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Post by valere on Dec 7, 2012 17:55:13 GMT -8
I decided to take a long , hard and non emotional look at my portfolio and I honestly could not find a better place to put new money today then apple at 530..I think the downside is maybe around 475 or so while the upside is 700 or 800 ..so I like those odds. In addition I get paid 2 % dividend .. and if I wanted to I could sell Jan 14 700 calls for an extra 27dollars or 5% for a total of 7%. Not sure what other investment gives me this risk reward profile
Besides the occasional CNBC guest I do not know a single person who went from an I phone to an Android .. so Apple has a built in customer base of more then 100 million people . So you add that to 128 dollars per share in cash and the risk reward becomes even more appealing ..
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Post by hledgard on Dec 7, 2012 17:57:04 GMT -8
I still think AAPL needs a 10:1 split to approach rational behavior. The fact that AAPL's price is so high, and that Apple is such a visible company, makes the stock vulnerable to all kinds of things.
Google only survives because its service, search, is great but mundane, hence less erratic.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 7, 2012 17:58:29 GMT -8
I believe aapl is being sold to lock in long term capital gains for the year. I just wasn't expecting aapl to drop this much. I think this is one underlying factor. No more rocket launches upward until the new year. Quit giving people more big gains to lock in.
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Post by alice on Dec 7, 2012 18:09:59 GMT -8
When will the big boys be done with their aapl tax selling to lock in long term gains? Is it the last trading day of December? If the big boys are not done selling, wouldn't it make sense for them to move aapl share price up to sell? Wondering ...
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 18:14:52 GMT -8
Is that figure right? I would be shocked if apple sold more than 100,000 Mac Pros in a year.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2012 18:28:10 GMT -8
I subscribed to Andy Zaky until a month ago. I don't want to speak badly about the experience, but for me it was a huge warning about how much trust to put in any "analyst." For me, that means developing my own center of gravity when it comes to this stock or any stock for that matter. I have come to revere iPad's buy spread way-out philosophy....just for safety. I stopped following many of his suggestions during the parabolic run last Spring when he kept shorting AAPL and insisting that he was right and everyone else would be wrong. So, if you followed him then, you really missed the whole run and probably lost a lot of money then. I did value tremendously his chart analysis and I learned much from his perspective. That was really the only reason I still stayed as a subscriber. He (and those following him on Bullish CRoss) were heavily invested in January 2013 call spreads, specifically, the 600/650 and the 655/705 spreads. The 600/650 was bought for about $17 last Spring....that spread is now going for $4.50--I sold all but 3 of mine at 680, thank God!! Andy last recommended the 655/705 in August @ $20. AAPL was around 645 at the time. That spread is now worth $1.05. (I sold all of those at 680 as well). I am illustrating this not to be mean to Andy (he's a really likable guy), just to illustrate the high stakes that were involved at Bullish Cross. When everyone was buying these spreads last April, everything about Apple seemed secure. These spreads seemed absolutely OK. No one, me included, ever expected a $200 drop just like that and for the spreads to be all but washed out. I do feel enormous sadness for anyone holding those spreads. AAPL may still shoot up before the January expiration, but, it seems the odds are not in favor of that. Here's what I want from Apple....not a special dividend, but a different Christmas present....a surprise 4-1 split next week. I think Scott Redler is right....it is one way Apple can protect the stock from the hedge fund manipulators by making the stock more accessible to retail investors who won't be selling it every day and who think that $500 is too much to pay for 1 share of AAPL (even though we all know it is undervalued). I feel it's time for AAPL to go this route. Or, at least, initiate a big buyback. They just have to support the stock price more. A stock split after a massive drop will be regarded as a move of desperation by almost everyone. A stock buy back though has a chance of being seen as a positive step by the company.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 18:33:45 GMT -8
burgess, we both know we're not in a fair compare period.
Mac Pro is only the start. This may have been in motion back when Steve Jobs was still the CEO.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 18:54:30 GMT -8
Wait, Ensign was talking about Zaky?
Rue the day Apple settles in like IBM, huh. And uh, AAPL has been "out of favor" at many points in time, y'know. Like, well, now.
AAPL just doesn't trade by any of the conventional rules. The company acts like a startup, the stock kinda sorta _trades_ like a startup. I think that's the more important point for traders to keep in mind.
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Post by jeffi on Dec 7, 2012 19:16:13 GMT -8
Forbes: Why Is Apple Stock So Manipulated "Bottom Line In the stock market, the word “manipulation” helps us explain something that we can’t understand. It’s also another way to deflect blame off ourselves and to someone else – this is even though we can’t prove it. However, I will argue that every stock on the market is manipulated. If you can’t agree to this, then none of them are. It sounds very cliché to say, but “stocks go up and stocks go down.” Here’s another one, “if you can’t take the heat, get out of the kitchen.” And here’s my favorite,” if you can’t prove it, don’t say it.” www.forbes.com/sites/richardsaintvilus/2012/12/07/why-is-apple-stock-so-manipulated/
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Post by prazan on Dec 7, 2012 19:26:59 GMT -8
Zaky dumped his 650-705 Jan 13s today. He uses FA as the foundation, then tries to read moves in stock price using TA. The problem he has encountered, as I understand it (which is incompletely), is that his model is rational, but the stock is not performing in a rational way. So he'll think that Apple has bottomed because on the previous ten occasions certain technical indicators have signalled a bottom in the stock price. But this time the stock price isn't conforming to historical models. So he's trying to fit a rational, historical model to an irrational, ahistorical event. And frankly, it's shredding him. He's a talented technician. His fundamentals once were among the best. He's like an accomplished if overly aggressive sea captain hit by a rogue wave. He didn't see it coming, and and didn't realize just how large and powerful it would be.
Time will sort the current period of irrationality. Holders of any Jan 13 options are screwed. Riffing on Mad Max's riffs on Leslie Nielsen, I picked a terrible time to start snorting cocaine, cocaine being options. If Apple's fundamentals erode between now and the time rationality returns, all Apple shareholders will be screwed.
But my personal bet is that the fundamentals will remain strong. Q1 will be tough because the bar is set high at 13.87 from Q1 last year. The bar is still high from Q2 last year at 12.30 (working from memory here). The low hanging fruit is Q3 from last year, which is where I suspect we'll add serious EPS on a TTM basis.
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