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Post by terps530 on Dec 12, 2012 8:47:52 GMT -8
Did not anticipate recovering from the 538 break. Made a move and got burned a little. Even when you think you have a good idea of the picture, you don't. After all the madness over the past few months, I've started to think about how EOs, hedgefunds, or whatever big moving money is called, would F over the majority of investors. If a large amount of people claim that when it gets to price X (538 for example), it will turn bad quick, then maybe they can make it seem that way, but then turn it around and catch all those fishies. Then again maybe this is a headfake too. The winner seems to be, 'until we get one or two earnings reports in Apple, anything can happen regardless of TA, fundamentals, or news.'
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 12, 2012 8:54:18 GMT -8
Did not anticipate recovering from the 538 break. Made a move and got burned a little. Even when you think you have a good idea of the picture, you don't. After all the madness over the past few months, I've started to think about how EOs, hedgefunds, or whatever big moving money is called, would F over the majority of investors. If a large amount of people claim that when it gets to price X (538 for example), it will turn bad quick, then maybe they can make it seem that way, but then turn it around and catch all those fishies. Then again maybe this is a headfake too. The winner seems to be, 'until we get one or two earnings reports in Apple, anything can happen regardless of TA, fundamentals, or news.' I too have recently gained admission into the Tin Foil Hat Society (TFHS). It could be they are lulling us into a fall sense here and the move down will be violent and over quick. We seem to be in nomans land here between 538-555. Good luck everyone.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 12, 2012 8:56:06 GMT -8
Drop below 540 not unexpected.
Pain range:
Stk Calls Puts 530 2,370 5,220 535 2,571 4,361 540 5,743 4,711 545 4,935 4,904 550 11,767 3,67
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Post by appledoc on Dec 12, 2012 9:10:10 GMT -8
Did not anticipate recovering from the 538 break. Made a move and got burned a little. Even when you think you have a good idea of the picture, you don't. After all the madness over the past few months, I've started to think about how EOs, hedgefunds, or whatever big moving money is called, would F over the majority of investors. If a large amount of people claim that when it gets to price X (538 for example), it will turn bad quick, then maybe they can make it seem that way, but then turn it around and catch all those fishies. Then again maybe this is a headfake too. The winner seems to be, 'until we get one or two earnings reports in Apple, anything can happen regardless of TA, fundamentals, or news.' I do think there is a lot of credibility to this. And it's why I wait to see if what I think is going to happen can get a little more confirmation. Broke through 538, watched it bounce around in the 537 region, and on the dip below 537 I bought weekly puts for a small play. Little harm done, and it was worth the risk to me. Even as cool as I think EW is, there are so many different potential wave counts that you are certainly going to have many misses. You just have to trade enough to get some good winners. Unfortunately I don't have the time to do that. I can see the rest of the day going either way right now. The longer we stay down in the 538 region, the more dangerous it becomes. Resolution one way or the other this week would be nice. Hopefully it goes in our favor.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 12, 2012 9:12:13 GMT -8
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 12, 2012 9:32:05 GMT -8
FOMC - WOW!
Links rate policy to 6.5% unemployment!
Market does not know what to think either:
Bullish - Fed will be there until the sun starts to shine
Bearish - Feb is really worried and throwing up what ever and see what sticks
2:15 will be telling... I think bullish
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Post by wheeles on Dec 12, 2012 9:38:34 GMT -8
FOMC - WOW! Links rate policy to 6.5% unemployment! Yeah, good luck with that. </sarcasm> EDIT: I'd really like to know how monetising MBS and Treasuries creates jobs anywhere but Wall Street.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 12, 2012 9:46:47 GMT -8
FOMC - WOW! Links rate policy to 6.5% unemployment! Yeah, good luck with that. </sarcasm> EDIT: I'd really like to know how monetising MBS and Treasuries creates jobs anywhere but Wall Street. Theory is Fed Policy pushes interest rates down and thus mortgage rates down thus housing more affordable then house prices bottoms then banks starts to lend out the cash it is hoarding then companies spend and employee people etc... if this works, then inflation might be problem in a few years...
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 12, 2012 9:48:01 GMT -8
(...)Even as cool as I think EW is, there are so many different potential wave counts that you are certainly going to have many misses. You just have to trade enough to get some good winners. Unfortunately I don't have the time to do that. Don't trade on EW unless you know your TA!! Fibs are just one piece of the "read." Need to check MACD-h, among other things. MACD-h said the down had no teeth (bullish divergence). Now to see if the "up" has teeth...or if we just go sideways...
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Post by qualitywte on Dec 12, 2012 9:48:12 GMT -8
.... Even when you think you have a good idea of the picture, you don't. Classic TA?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 12, 2012 9:53:04 GMT -8
(...)Broke through 538, watched it bounce around in the 537 region, and on the dip below 537 I bought weekly puts for a small play. Little harm done, and it was worth the risk to me. Need to see increasing (not waning) momentum for a momo play (momo = break above resistance or break below support). Need MACD-h reading!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 12, 2012 9:59:52 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART (with my notes): UPwave in a downtrend until proven otherwise. NO PUTS!!!
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Post by rob_london on Dec 12, 2012 10:00:03 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Dec 12, 2012 10:02:19 GMT -8
Yeah, good luck with that. </sarcasm> EDIT: I'd really like to know how monetising MBS and Treasuries creates jobs anywhere but Wall Street. Theory is Fed Policy pushes interest rates down and thus mortgage rates down thus housing more affordable then house prices bottoms then banks starts to lend out the cash it is hoarding then companies spend and employee people etc... if this works, then inflation might be problem in a few years... The definition of insanity is continuing to do the same thing and expecting a different result. How exactly is this any different from all previous QE programs? All the Fed has done is ramp inflation on essentials such as food and energy while bailing out the banks. The inflation is only low in the official figures because they take out the stuff to which people are most sensitive. Real inflation that hurts real people is here now.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 12, 2012 10:12:24 GMT -8
(...)Even as cool as I think EW is, there are so many different potential wave counts that you are certainly going to have many misses. You just have to trade enough to get some good winners. Unfortunately I don't have the time to do that. Don't trade on EW unless you know your TA!! Fibs are just one piece of the "read." Need to check MACD-h, among other things. MACD-h said the down had no teeth (bullish divergence). Now to see if the "up" has teeth...or if we just go sideways... Thanks iPad. Much to learn! What time interval for the MACD-h were you looking at?
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 12, 2012 10:12:44 GMT -8
Growth - we need growth - that's how we get out of this. We can actually GET growth if we can get certainty and tax reform....then unemployment will go down and the Fed can put an end to the insane world we live in.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 12, 2012 10:32:07 GMT -8
Growth - we need growth - that's how we get out of this. We can actually GET growth if we can get certainty and tax reform....then unemployment will go down and the Fed can put an end to the insane world we live in. I think Ben would agree with you about putting an end to it. But he's been the only guy doing anything about the economy over the last 3-4 years, since Congress is dysfunctional and hasn't done a damn thing. It really amazes me about all these talking heads who say how we are going to pay the piper down the road because of all the QE, but without BB, we would have been paying it since 2008.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 12, 2012 10:36:22 GMT -8
Growth - we need growth - that's how we get out of this. We can actually GET growth if we can get certainty and tax reform....then unemployment will go down and the Fed can put an end to the insane world we live in. I think Ben would agree with you about putting an end to it. But he's been the only guy doing anything about the economy over the last 3-4 years, since Congress is dysfunctional and hasn't done a damn thing. It really amazes me about all these talking heads who say how we are going to pay the piper down the road because of all the QE, but without BB, we would have been paying it since 2008. +1 100% agree. Making the best out of crappy position. History will treat him kindly.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 12, 2012 10:46:08 GMT -8
Don't trade on EW unless you know your TA!! Fibs are just one piece of the "read." Need to check MACD-h, among other things. MACD-h said the down had no teeth (bullish divergence). Now to see if the "up" has teeth...or if we just go sideways... Thanks iPad. Much to learn! What time interval for the MACD-h were you looking at? 5 min. NOW look! See the bearish divergence. For day trade only: this is your put entry.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 12, 2012 10:47:41 GMT -8
With a stop, in case you're wrong! But if you don't see this kind of divergence, no puts!
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Post by bribery on Dec 12, 2012 11:07:51 GMT -8
Haha, I gave it a shot, lovemyipad. It's 15% up thus far EDIT: sold it for 9% up. Can't handle day trades.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 12, 2012 11:12:56 GMT -8
Spot on iPad!
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Post by bribery on Dec 12, 2012 11:33:48 GMT -8
Damn, had I stayed 10 minutes longer. Right on iPad. Hope you played it too.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 12, 2012 11:38:38 GMT -8
It appears the iPhone 5 is in great supply. $50 off, LIMIT 5
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Post by bribery on Dec 12, 2012 11:41:59 GMT -8
It appears the iPhone 5 is in great supply. $50 off, LIMIT 5The other day I said I was concerned of this deal being due to lack of demand. But people pointed out that it was only Best Buy to generate traffic. However, it seems a lot of vendors are offering this exact deal. Is it, again, a way to lure people into their stores permitted by ample supply, or a desperate move due to overstock? EDIT: I guess it doesn't matter since Apple managed to have BOTH carriers and retailers paying their full price?
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 12, 2012 11:52:18 GMT -8
Barclays Capital Investor Lunch Survey. Interesting GOOG is percieved to be largest competitor and stock buyback is most favored use of cash. Also, 70% bullish does seem high for capitualation. For sure this will be sent to management. Attachments:
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 12, 2012 12:02:27 GMT -8
Buyback! BOOM! It's simply the most logical step in terms of "extraordinary" use of "spare" cash, if the cash had to be used.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 12, 2012 12:12:22 GMT -8
My buddy is at Columbia grad school for an MBA. He was telling me earlier that last night his accounting professor went off on a rampage about Apple, saying the company is doing a disservice to stockholders by hoarding cash. He then had to say this was just an educational example, I guess since he got pretty riled up against Apple stock performance as of late.
edit: the rise/drop in apple since lunchtime is all due to the Fed/Bernanke. the chart is a replica of the DOW/SPY/Nasdaq. Volume is pretty low though, whatever that means.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 12, 2012 12:15:39 GMT -8
Neutral/slight-bearish on the my PSI (Personal Sentiment Indicator™). Still doing nothing trading-wise. Basic trendline theory as I might misunderstand it tells me anything over 525ish as of today is actually still OK - higher lows and all that, since AAPL has lost 530 in the past week or two without dire consequences (suggesting support beneath that level). Of course I'd prefer AAPL to finish over 540.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 12, 2012 12:16:37 GMT -8
My buddy is at Columbia grad school for an MBA. He was telling me earlier that last night his accounting professor went off on a rampage about Apple, saying the company is doing a disservice to stockholders by hoarding cash. He then had to say this was just an educational example, I guess since he got pretty riled up against Apple stock performance as of late. I will make you a $1 bet that his professor owns the stock! I wish they would announce a buy back....seriously.
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