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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 13, 2012 18:46:52 GMT -8
Gregg - so good to see your name pop up - welcome back!
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Post by alice on Dec 13, 2012 18:48:14 GMT -8
I like having Gregg back posting again.
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Post by hellojapan on Dec 13, 2012 18:48:16 GMT -8
Welcome back Gregg
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 13, 2012 18:51:39 GMT -8
+1. and a few exalts to get the ball rolling.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 13, 2012 19:01:04 GMT -8
Gregg proving once again that Bastiat had it right. There is that which is seen, and that which is unseen. Just because you don't see something, does not mean it does not exist.
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Post by Gridlock on Dec 13, 2012 19:04:15 GMT -8
Gregg -- good to see you posting again. I'm basically a lurker trying to learn, and I learn more when you're part of the discussion.
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Post by po1nt on Dec 13, 2012 19:17:19 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 19:24:34 GMT -8
Best part of my day was Rick putting himself on his ignore list. I don't like the fact that my mood is tied up in how well aapl did on the given day. Something's gotta change, I already am fully invested I think I'm going to stop checking the ticket 6279742 times a day. There's much more to life than money, I have to start enjoying myself more. Well that is one way to take your mind off of AAPL. ;D
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 19:35:58 GMT -8
There are two kinds of investing institutions, and Wall Street labels both wrong. The first kind are investment banks, hedge funds and the like. The key to identifying this group is that there are no limitations to the make up of their portfolios, other than their own sense of risk/reward. The second kind are mutual funds, pension funds and the like. They are identified by the fact that the % of portfolio ownership, of a single equity, is limited by charter or government regulation. I could write pages on the inequities of our tax system and how tax deferred savings accounts prevent people from saving/investing, but that would be getting political, and draw the ire of the critically uninformed. Excellent first post Gregg Thurman, welcome to the group. I bumped your karma also.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 19:37:27 GMT -8
Gregg proving once again that Bastiat had it right. There is that which is seen, and that which is unseen. Just because you don't see something, does not mean it does not exist. Exactly. Now where did I leave my hat?
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Post by Wile E. Coyote on Dec 13, 2012 19:49:05 GMT -8
Over the years there have been many people who resented being challenged, like they were superior anonymous internet beings. Hey wait, I'm a superior anonymous internet being!
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Post by terps530 on Dec 13, 2012 19:50:02 GMT -8
Gregg -- good to see you posting again. I'm basically a lurker trying to learn, and I learn more when you're part of the discussion. QFT quoted for truth! WB
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 13, 2012 19:52:37 GMT -8
Stk Calls Puts 520 1,333 9,683 525 2,402 6,931 530 6,044 6,612 535 7,302 4,306 540 12,035 5,337
530-534.99, but 530 puts barely ahead.
Never count out those lemmings degenerate gamblers retail options buyers to put the calls over the top. Probably a 529.99-ish close.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 19:53:55 GMT -8
Over the years there have been many people who resented being challenged, like they were superior anonymous internet beings. Hey wait, I'm a superior anonymous internet being! Yes you are. Beep beep, now look out for the safe falling from the sky. ;D
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2012 20:03:02 GMT -8
Burgess, your valuation is a refrain I've seen in various mathematical forms. AAPL share price theoretical value can be a function of cash, OR of free cash flow OR of PE/PEG. Fixed it for you. Ultimately the price is a function of liquidity. If it wasn't, then we would not get these meltdowns in price when over-margined longs get squeezed, or the last 3.5 years of market climb thanks to the system getting flooded with free cash. Stated another way, value is that which a READY, WILLING [/color]and ABLE [/b]buyer and seller agree. Without one (or the other) meeting all 3 criteria above value is not determined, and a sale does not occur. There is no constant in value determined, it is a personal, dynamic judgement in a constant state of flux.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 13, 2012 20:10:27 GMT -8
529.99 would almost be a "victory" of sorts. 530 is a stubborn level for bears.
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Post by Xphilos on Dec 13, 2012 20:12:56 GMT -8
I looked at a few online pain calculators, next week's max pain is being calculated as 585 and higher.
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Post by alice on Dec 13, 2012 20:18:36 GMT -8
I looked at a few online pain calculators, next week's max pain is being calculated as 585 and higher. Max pain has not been working during this downtrend. I think mace said to look at highest oi Put during downtrend - I may not have recalled this correctly.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 20:22:42 GMT -8
I read over Nick's numbers just now, again. Disbelief. Don't get me wrong, I would dance naked in the middle of the street if they came to fruition, but seriously, that kind of growth over last years on the revenue side is insane. From 44 to 62bil in revenue is asking a lot since there have not been any large new markets to sell to. Not to mention it is 10 billion over Apple's guidance.
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Post by alice on Dec 13, 2012 20:39:51 GMT -8
Appe is selling iPhone 5 in china earlier.
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platon
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"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
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Post by platon on Dec 13, 2012 20:43:05 GMT -8
Gregg proving once again that Bastiat had it right. There is that which is seen, and that which is unseen. Just because you don't see something, does not mean it does not exist. My favorite quote from Bastiat would be when he was speaking directly to the self-appointed rulers of mankind and do-gooders and he said--"Ah, you miserable creatures! You who think you are so great! You who judge humanity to be so small! You who wish to reform everything! Why don't you reform yourselves? That task would be sufficient enough." Taken from "The Law." Good stuff-----Bastiat.
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Post by sponge on Dec 13, 2012 20:43:12 GMT -8
Appe is selling iPhone 5 in china earlier. Yes. Much earlier. CT did not get it until March.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 13, 2012 20:44:15 GMT -8
I read over Nick's numbers just now, again. Disbelief. Don't get me wrong, I would dance naked in the middle of the street if they came to fruition, but seriously, that kind of growth over last years on the revenue side is insane. From 44 to 62bil in revenue is asking a lot since there have not been any large new markets to sell to. Not to mention it is 10 billion over Apple's guidance. Dude is gonna be wrong. But I think it's more new product refresh/supply chain issues than OH NOES Apple's growth is grinding to a halt. Besides, look at iPhone 4S. What huge new carriers did Apple add at that point? Also, as has been pointed out, China gets the iPhone 5 this fiscal quarter. China did not get the 4S this time last year. That should be a pretty nice plus to balance out the 14th fiscal week from FY' 12.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 13, 2012 20:55:59 GMT -8
Appe is selling iPhone 5 in china earlier. Alice, that is not a new market. That is where part of the YOY growth will come from because it launches earlier.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 13, 2012 20:58:12 GMT -8
MB, see also Samsung. They're not new. Most Android vendors aren't either, they're just mix-shifting to smartphones and the market is accommodating this. Big-picture, there's still global smartphone growth.
Probably best just to focus on growth rate because it subsumes competition, market saturation, added carriers (even adding China Mobile, should it ever happen, will NOT be hugely accretive immediately), etc.
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Post by alice on Dec 13, 2012 21:01:26 GMT -8
Appe is selling iPhone 5 in china earlier. Alice, that is not a new market. That is where part of the YOY growth will come from because it launches earlier. Selling to china earlier would increase the number of iPhones sold this quarter.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 13, 2012 21:27:09 GMT -8
Stk Calls Puts 520 1,333 9,683 525 2,402 6,931 530 6,044 6,612 535 7,302 4,306 540 12,035 5,337 That's ^^^ what jumped out at me. Maybe a ten point swing either early or late in the day toward one of those poles, then spend the remaining time going nowhere in a hurry.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 13, 2012 21:28:00 GMT -8
And whaddaya know, AAPL closed almost perfectly in the middle.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 13, 2012 21:30:24 GMT -8
I looked at a few online pain calculators, next week's max pain is being calculated as 585 and higher. Max pain has not been working during this downtrend. I think mace said to look at highest oi Put during downtrend - I may not have recalled this correctly. Alice, yes, that's what Mace said.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 13, 2012 21:45:03 GMT -8
Gregg proving once again that Bastiat had it right. There is that which is seen, and that which is unseen. Just because you don't see something, does not mean it does not exist. Exactly. Now where did I leave my hat? Actually, I was just using Gregg's lurking in the shadows, and then popping back into the forum, as a metaphor. But yeah, what he said was insightful too.
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