|
Post by Big Al on Sept 19, 2012 2:22:57 GMT -8
That is the big question when evaluating Q4 earnings.
I assume that iPhone sales before the introduction of the new iPhone5 took a strong hit. So I put that unit sales number somewhere around 19 million.
The quarter goes until Sep. 29th.
So we have the pre-orders and two weekends in the tier one launch countries (US, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and the UK) and one weekend in the tier two countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland).
Apple sold 4 million iPhone4S over the first weekend of its launch. Since the preorders of the iPhone 5 are 2 million compared to 1 million of the 4S, we can assume that (if there are no supply constraints) Apple could sell as many as 8 million iPhone5 units over the first weekend.
Conservatively extrapolating this number to the second weekend and the other launch countries I think that we might see 10 million iPhone5 sold until Sep. 29th, putting the total iPhone unit sales at around 29 million for Q4.
What numbers do you guys have?
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Sept 19, 2012 5:27:42 GMT -8
I'll go along with 8 M+. It appears reasonable to me that iPhone sales imploded in August.
EDIT:
I will double check on ASP on some quick spreadsheet eventually.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Sept 19, 2012 6:24:08 GMT -8
7.4 million plus, and 26.5 iPhones of all types....
The free iPhone 4 on all three u.s. networks could be very interesting, but perhaps more so in the December quarter....
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2012 10:37:59 GMT -8
I'm gonna start with really, really anemic iPhone sales up 'til launch.
I'll be picking a number between 10-15M iPhones sold between the start of fiscal Q4 and the day iPhone 5 launches to start.
That second number - all the iPhones Apple could sell before the end of next Saturday - I'll wait for the initial sales report before I work on that number.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Sept 19, 2012 11:26:22 GMT -8
7.4 million plus, and 26.5 iPhones of all types.... The free iPhone 4 on all three u.s. networks could be very interesting, but perhaps more so in the December quarter.... Ditto, you made it easy Red. ;D
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 19, 2012 11:33:52 GMT -8
I think a good baseline or reference number would be 20.65M iPhones.
Don't shoot! It's just applying the same YOY growth rate from fiscal Q4 2011 to this one. Yes, I know it's not that simple.
|
|
|
Post by chasmac on Sept 21, 2012 18:15:16 GMT -8
7.4 million plus, and 26.5 iPhones of all types.... The free iPhone 4 on all three u.s. networks could be very interesting, but perhaps more so in the December quarter.... Pretty close to my number Bald one! Will readjust Monday if we get some numbers. I'm a little higher right now.
|
|
|
Post by roni on Sept 23, 2012 7:14:58 GMT -8
I am close to Al's 29 million for now. I am interested in this weekends number.
I expect very anemic iPhone 4S sales
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Sept 24, 2012 8:01:47 GMT -8
OK, now that we have gotten A number, what say all of you? Not much has changed for me. 25-26 mil is probably where I will settle at. Sales will add this week, so with the move up in launch from Oct Apple has moved between 8-10 million units into the Q4. This is what was expected. Once it has been digested I think the estimates will be fine. I still think the Q4 numbers are going to be below $10EPS, but above $9.
If we do not get a new iMac soon my head is going to pop off.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 9:16:13 GMT -8
Hm...if you don't get an iMac by the time of the iPad Air/whatever announcement this year (if there is one), maybe next year. Given the way Ive and company redesigned the iPod touch and iPod nano, I'm pretty sure a redesigned iMac is in the works.
If Apple can move 5M units in 3 days, it can probably move at least another 3M in 6 days. Add to that about 1-2M in iPhone 4 and 4S sales in that timeframe and I think the base case is right around 21M units (same YOY growth as last year).
The huge, huge unknown is iPhone sales up until the media invite. And there was iPhone 5 buzz since August.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Sept 24, 2012 9:58:24 GMT -8
Hm...if you don't get an iMac by the time of the iPad Air/whatever announcement this year (if there is one), maybe next year. Given the way Ive and company redesigned the iPod touch and iPod nano, I'm pretty sure a redesigned iMac is in the works. If Apple can move 5M units in 3 days, it can probably move at least another 3M in 6 days. Add to that about 1-2M in iPhone 4 and 4S sales in that timeframe and I think the base case is right around 21M units (same YOY growth as last year). The huge, huge unknown is iPhone sales up until the media invite. And there was iPhone 5 buzz since August. Mav, our YOY compare is 17 mil. Because of wider availability I would like to think 21m has already been surpassed. I have been using the 17 mil as a starting point and just trying to come up with an add on. I for one believe this number is what WS told Apple they wanted them to report. Lovey, conspiracy theory! conspiracy theory!
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 10:06:57 GMT -8
Break out the tin foil. I like to start conservative and go from there. 21M is probably low, but 29M sounds like it could be too high due to supply constraints. Remind me about the "iPhone 4 effect" when iPhone 6 comes along.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Sept 24, 2012 10:25:39 GMT -8
Break out the tin foil. I like to start conservative and go from there. 21M is probably low, but 29M sounds like it could be too high due to supply constraints. Remind me about the "iPhone 4 effect" when iPhone 6 comes along. Pulling out old pics from the conspiracy talk I see.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 24, 2012 12:30:07 GMT -8
That is one of my favorite tinfoil/LOLcat combos in the Internet. So of COURSE I'll link to it when it's conspiracy theory hour.
|
|
|
Post by drewbear on Sept 24, 2012 17:56:13 GMT -8
WSJ: ...Apple may have reached a theoretical limit to how many products can be produced in a specific window of time. Tom Dinges, an analyst at IHS iSuppli, said Apple historically began production of new iPhones in mid-August, a little more than a month from the release date. But, he said, the company may have shortened that production schedule to control information leaks that could come from suppliers.
"For the major opening weekend, we're close to the limit," Mr. Dinges said. "Unless they're willing to widen the manufacturing window, maybe we have seen" the limit for how many units Apple can deliver without more production lines.
online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444180004578016053764519458.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs I'm wondering if Apple actually DID widen the manufacturing window. There were plenty of parts leaks this year and some bloggers were speculating that it was because Apple now needs to begin production earlier than ever in order to get some semblance of a jump on initial demand. I'm sure Apple has already added production lines in anticipation of 15-20 million per month iPhone demand. Per. Month! Probably for the next 6 months, but only if China Mobile doesn't enter the picture before demand wanes and anticipation for the iPhone 6S begins.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 3:09:28 GMT -8
Given the high mix of 32 & 64 gigs iPhones being sold at launch, the gross margin % should be "quite nice" this quarter.
I've gone from 30 million to 25 million for this quarter after this mornings numbers were announced.
Thankfully we are supply constrained as opposed to weak demand, so Dec quarter will remain MASSIVE (50 million+).
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Sept 25, 2012 5:00:57 GMT -8
Given the high mix of 32 & 64 gigs iPhones being sold at launch, the gross margin % should be "quite nice" this quarter. I've gone from 30 million to 25 million for this quarter after this mornings numbers were announced. First thought was, how in the heck were you at 30 mil? Second, how does 3 days of sales change that number? Third, all the sales this week to be added in, again, how does that change that number? Were you expecting 10 million in 3 days and another 10 million this week? Just trying to understand where you are coming from and how yesterday could have changed your numbers by 5 million.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2012 14:31:15 GMT -8
I hadn't updated my projection since July, at that point I was at 30 million based on a early September iPhone release.
Once the sep 21st date was confirmed I thought my number was too high, but would wait for initial sales to confirm. After preorders were double, I had hoped that we might see 8-10 million launch weekend (the demand was there of course, but supply wouldn't allow it - shame).
I only expect 10 million iPhone 5 units shipped this quarter + 15 million iPhone 3GS/4/4S units.
Big unknown is Channel fill - which others have a better handle on than me.
|
|
|
Post by chasmac on Sept 27, 2012 18:39:45 GMT -8
Even at 27.5, I was having trouble getting to $10eps. I'll probably adjust my number down to 25-25.5 or so. A little worried about Q4. Will have to do some pondering and see what revising down is going to do vs. guidance/expectations.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 27, 2012 18:41:06 GMT -8
I can't "make" fiscal Q4 look all that great given my early back of the napkin numbers.
But that's OK. It DOES help clear my mind of silly ideas like playing earnings. I call it Red October for a reason.
|
|
|
Post by aaplexcelsior on Oct 13, 2012 5:17:37 GMT -8
What follows is *an extremely rough* calculation. I was taking a look at the iPhone posts over at the macrumors board, and noticed that people are referring to their phones by week number, mainly to see if the later production units have less flaws (such as nicks) than earlier ones. It looks like Week 31 (first week August) is the oldest, but I don't see many of those or 32s reported, so let's assume Week 33 is when the production lines really started at more/less full capacity. Seems like up to Week 37s (ending 9/16) were sold during launch weekend, so let's assume 33-37 account for the first 5M sales reported by Apple (1M phones produced/week). Someone reported getting a week 39 (ending 9/30) delivered on 9/29, so let's assume two more weeks of production were sold after the first weekend and before the end of the quarter. That gives us 7M iPhone 5s sold? People seem to be getting Week 40 phones now. forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1443232&highlight=week
|
|
|
Post by Apple II+ on Oct 13, 2012 9:48:26 GMT -8
Not a bad analysis. I would think, however, that production ramp is not binary. Although 5 weeks production averaged 1 million per week, I would think that's only an average and that production was still ramping throughout and may still be ramping now. There may be clues in the relative frequency of each week of production in the posts at macrumors.
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Oct 24, 2012 5:41:09 GMT -8
quoting myself from intraday thread: Of Verizon's 3.1 number, 650k were iphone 5's. I haven't seen that # from AT&T yet? Anyway, you can see the % of total sales over the past few quarters, which is why that 25ish% has been used. if anything my thoughts would be the % of total sales would go down (as more int'l sales happen), so dividing by 30% to me, would be the low ball estimate on the phones. AT&T + VZ %: 30% ---> 26m Iphones AT&T + VZ %: 27.5% ---> 28.36m Iphones AT&T + VZ %: 25% ---> 31.2m Iphones AT&T + VZ %: 22.5% ---> 34.66m Iphones AT&T + VZ %: 20% ---> 39m Iphones Just to give some ballparks and what that would mean...
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 12:42:18 GMT -8
quoting myself from intraday thread: Of Verizon's 3.1 number, 650k were iphone 5's. I haven't seen that # from AT&T yet? Anyway, you can see the % of total sales over the past few quarters, which is why that 25ish% has been used. if anything my thoughts would be the % of total sales would go down (as more int'l sales happen), so dividing by 30% to me, would be the low ball estimate on the phones. AT&T + VZ %: 30% ---> 26m Iphones AT&T + VZ %: 27.5% ---> 28.36m Iphones AT&T + VZ %: 25% ---> 31.2m Iphones AT&T + VZ %: 22.5% ---> 34.66m Iphones AT&T + VZ %: 20% ---> 39m Iphones Just to give some ballparks and what that would mean... The last launch quarter it was 31.86% (great chart btw) using that ratio we get to 24.5 million.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 24, 2012 13:46:00 GMT -8
Yes, but you are comparing January's qtr that really can't be compared. The Jan results had 10-11 weeks of the new phone, last qtr had 10 days. not really apples to mmmmmm apples. ;D What has me hopeful is the perceived fact that the iphone did not have the same fall-off as last year with people waiting for the new phone. The T number IMO was very good this morning. Anything above 1.5 from S will be fantastic. I would love to see 2, but that is wishful thinking.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2012 14:14:36 GMT -8
Was just looking at worst case scenario (24.5 million wouldn't be the worst result ever).
Another thought: we know at least 5 million iPhone 5 units were sold last quarter, and Verizon/AT&T sold under 2 million. That equates to 40% of the known 5 million units, but we must assume there were at least another couple million or more shipped in the final week (right?), which should bring that ratio down to under 30%.
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on Oct 25, 2012 7:34:32 GMT -8
What follows is *an extremely rough* calculation. I was taking a look at the iPhone posts over at the macrumors board, and noticed that people are referring to their phones by week number, mainly to see if the later production units have less flaws (such as nicks) than earlier ones. It looks like Week 31 (first week August) is the oldest, but I don't see many of those or 32s reported, so let's assume Week 33 is when the production lines really started at more/less full capacity. Seems like up to Week 37s (ending 9/16) were sold during launch weekend, so let's assume 33-37 account for the first 5M sales reported by Apple (1M phones produced/week). Someone reported getting a week 39 (ending 9/30) delivered on 9/29, so let's assume two more weeks of production were sold after the first weekend and before the end of the quarter. That gives us 7M iPhone 5s sold? People seem to be getting Week 40 phones now. forums.macrumors.com/showthread.php?t=1443232&highlight=weekI read an article claiming that they would ramp up to 500k/day output of iPhone5's. Which would be required to hit what some are predicting of 40-50m in Q1 (total all iPhones). So, assuming the ramp up was only half way there (say 250k/day in weeks 38 and 39), that's ~12M sold. BTW, if the 500k/day number is true, that might explain the disturbance in the factory over producing that many under stringent quality control.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 18, 2012 11:49:49 GMT -8
Last year, Calendar quarter Q4 was the launch quarter. This year's, its Q3. So, ATT as a percentage of this year will not be 20 % -- it will be lower.
Suppose ATT sells 9.2 M iPhones this quarter and this is 19 % of total sales. Result = 48.4 M iPhones.
This line of algebra leads me to believe that 48 M is the floor of iPhone sales.
Use this number with caution.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2012 14:13:20 GMT -8
Last year, Calendar quarter Q4 was the launch quarter. This year's, its Q3. So, ATT as a percentage of this year will not be 20 % -- it will be lower. Suppose ATT sells 9.2 M iPhones this quarter and this is 19 % of total sales. Result = 48.4 M iPhones. This line of algebra leads me to believe that 48 M is the floor of iPhone sales. Use this number with caution. I would normally compare it with the Mar quarter result (quarter after launch, includes a china launch), when Verizon was 9.12% and AT&T was 12.25%. But that discounts the bump we get in the Dec quarter from US holiday purchases. So I like your 19% AT&T unit share number, but am optimistic of it possibly going lower.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2012 14:29:51 GMT -8
I would really caution extrapolating (too much) from a single US carrier.
VeriPhone sales will be interesting. They've had much slower data access on iPhones until now. They're a more LTE-focused subscriber base than AT&T.
|
|