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Post by alice on Dec 14, 2012 7:37:04 GMT -8
REUTERS: Jefferies cuts estimate for Q1 iPhone sales: Component suppliers have seen large order cuts in last 24-48 hours. Jefferies cuts estimate for Apple Inc's Q1 iPhone sales to 48 million units from 52 million units Does this indicate a lack of iphone5 demand?
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Post by podboy on Dec 14, 2012 7:45:49 GMT -8
So, the reason why the iPhone 5 fails to draw crowds for China launch is that China Apple Stores are only offering iPhone 5 on a contract with China Telecom to walk-in customers. In the past, where thousands of people lined up outside the Beijing Apple Store and Shanghai Apple Store on iPhone 4S launch day, walk-in customers are allowed to purchase contract-free iPhones, and no online reservation is needed. At that time, Chinese customers walked into the store to purchase the new iPhone 4S, and then walked out to sell the iPhone units to scalpers for easy money. And scalpers also walked into the store to purchase iPhones in bulk quantities.
Today, Apple wants Chinese consumers to make a reservation online to buy the contract-free iPhone 5 in the store, and each customer is allowed to reserve not more than 5 units of iPhone 5.
Here’s the verdict. For any futures Apple product launch, we will no longer see long queues outside China Apple Stores. Never. Ever.
p.s. The unsubsidized iPhone 5 starts from ¥5,288 or about $850 if you reserve one from Apple’s China site.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 14, 2012 7:46:39 GMT -8
if apple closes at say 510 for example that will give you at P/E ex cash - (510-121/0.94)/44.16=8.63. Has it ever closed a session with a lower evaluation than this in the stocks history? Aparently that is too expensive for AAPL to buyback stock hand over fist.
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Post by steeler on Dec 14, 2012 7:51:23 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Dec 14, 2012 7:57:49 GMT -8
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 14, 2012 7:59:28 GMT -8
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Post by Apple II+ on Dec 14, 2012 8:07:33 GMT -8
Interestingly the 52 week low was one year ago. It's a conspiracy I tell ya, a conspiracy. It's an indication that there's still significant long term capital gains left to be captured through year end. Hope that means the selling stops January 1. But hope is not a strategy.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 14, 2012 8:10:36 GMT -8
Interestingly the 52 week low was one year ago. It's a conspiracy I tell ya, a conspiracy. ;D
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2012 8:17:04 GMT -8
Another day, another flush attempt. Sheesh.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 14, 2012 8:21:40 GMT -8
Another day, another flush attempt. Sheesh. This is not a flush, this is a takedown. I hold no hope of AAPL bouncing here because there has not been the free-fall drop and recovery. This drop comes from estimate cuts. I think I am going to be sick.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 14, 2012 8:25:46 GMT -8
BTW, Apple you can kiss my ass for the way you have killed the iphone in China. Apple is so concerned with the resale market that they have ruined the hype around a launch day. They call it protecting their customers, I call it BS. They do not like the idea of someone making money off of reselling. Note to Apple, if someone is willing to pay a premium price for any product it is none of your business.
I am going to have to step away. I was upset, now I am angry.
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 14, 2012 8:27:04 GMT -8
As a majority of buying shifts to "online" it must be getting even more difficult to track how sales are. In addition most "analysts" have NEVER got it right and every quarter we hear this bullshit. We went from strong demand and 2-3 weeks shipping time to "no demand" in a week .... utter insanity.
Apple has never been Wall Street's darling stock ... regardless of what those aholes at CNBC say ... it's always been the ugly red-headed stepchild so I'm used to this crap. Still sucks.
Did Apple already announce a earnings date ? For some reason January 14th is in my head .... but that's a Monday ....
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 14, 2012 8:28:49 GMT -8
Did Apple already announce a earnings date ? For some reason January 14th is in my head .... but that's a Monday .... No. Estimated Jan 22
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Post by adamthompson32 on Dec 14, 2012 8:29:45 GMT -8
This is moronic. Who cares? The stock is down.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 14, 2012 8:30:14 GMT -8
We have had this massive drop and the RSI has barely moved. Sickening.
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Post by frqntflr on Dec 14, 2012 8:30:18 GMT -8
food for thought ... if on Sept 21 you had dumped all your AAPL and put it all into RIMM, you'd have more than doubled your money ... does the Mayan calendar have anything to say about this?
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 14, 2012 8:30:50 GMT -8
Did Apple already announce a earnings date ? For some reason January 14th is in my head .... but that's a Monday .... No. Estimated Jan 22 Thanks ... can't come soon enough.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 14, 2012 8:31:08 GMT -8
BTW, Apple you can kiss my ass for the way you have killed the iphone in China. Apple is so concerned with the resale market that they have ruined the hype around a launch day. They call it protecting their customers, I call it BS. They do not like the idea of someone making money off of reselling. Note to Apple, if someone is willing to pay a premium price for any product it is none of your business. I am going to have to step away. I was upset, now I am angry. If Apple can "kill" the iPhone in China by curtailing scalpers, then it was dead anyway. Which I don't think it is.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Dec 14, 2012 8:31:58 GMT -8
BTW, Apple you can kiss my ass for the way you have killed the iphone in China. Apple is so concerned with the resale market that they have ruined the hype around a launch day. They call it protecting their customers, I call it BS. They do not like the idea of someone making money off of reselling. Note to Apple, if someone is willing to pay a premium price for any product it is none of your business. I am going to have to step away. I was upset, now I am angry. If they care (which I doubt), Apple loves the "gray market" demand for the iPhone. Your assumption (Apple doesn't like secondary market profits on Apple devices) makes no sense to me. Furthermore, the iPhone isn't dead in China or anywhere else. All it takes is looking at preorders.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 14, 2012 8:34:42 GMT -8
Thanks ... can't come soon enough. Earnings will not save AAPL. CQ1 will be key and other extraordinary action by management. Big money walking out the door - no believe in stock
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Post by rob_london on Dec 14, 2012 8:34:58 GMT -8
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Post by rmhe1999 on Dec 14, 2012 8:39:24 GMT -8
This is going to be one of those slow melt downs over the course of the day. Is it 4 PM yet? Is it January yet? Never thought we'd make it this low. holding a decent number (for me) shares underwater from the low 600s. It might be time to be checking when the margin call arrives. Hoping to make it till January earnings. At his rate though.....
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 14, 2012 8:43:17 GMT -8
Possibly a foolish move, but just gone long at 514. I'm often an early mover, and this case is no different. However, as happened yesterday, we could have got a rip higher in the few minutes prior to the open. Now we have climbed higher, how high do we go? I'm thinking possibly 530. wheeles, how do things look for your perch now? UBS guy on CNBC on in the noon hour. keep in mind his bear case PT is 475
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Dec 14, 2012 8:43:42 GMT -8
Earthquake off the coast of SOUTHERN California 2 hours ago. HEREYep, it woke me up about 2:30, but was not as unsettling as watching AAPL sink again...
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 14, 2012 8:45:13 GMT -8
Rob, independents are using methods that do not work anymore. Old growth rates do not do any good at these levels. What annoys me is the P/E. Even with a slowing of growth, AAPL should trade higher than 12. The launch last year in China was a disaster. Thousands of people gathered outside and Apple did not open the doors because there were to many scalpers in the crowd. The new system does what? eliminates the crowds. I think this is the biggest mistake Apple has ever made. It is not like there were not scalpers across the world in previous launches. Defend Apple all you want, this is a bad move in my mind.
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Post by playultimate on Dec 14, 2012 8:53:01 GMT -8
REUTERS: Jefferies cuts estimate for Q1 iPhone sales: Component suppliers have seen large order cuts in last 24-48 hours. Jefferies cuts estimate for Apple Inc's Q1 iPhone sales to 48 million units from 52 million units Does this indicate a lack of iphone5 demand? makes little sense, to me, that a component supply order cut would significantly affect a quarter that ends in 17 days. I understand the concept of "just in time" manufacturing, so I guess the question is how many days/weeks of components do the manufacturers have on hand.
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Post by alice on Dec 14, 2012 8:53:06 GMT -8
We are all hurting. Vent here.
I am glad Nate is out and all that sold. A positive.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 14, 2012 8:54:51 GMT -8
Rob, independents are using methods that do not work anymore. Old growth rates do not do any good at these levels. What annoys me is the P/E. Even with a slowing of growth, AAPL should trade higher than 12. The launch last year in China was a disaster. Thousands of people gathered outside and Apple did not open the doors because there were to many scalpers in the crowd. The new system does what? eliminates the crowds. I think this is the biggest mistake Apple has ever made. It is not like there were not scalpers across the world in previous launches. Defend Apple all you want, this is a bad move in my mind. Agreed MB. That is damn good publicity they are pissing away. Applemania.
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Post by playultimate on Dec 14, 2012 9:00:43 GMT -8
I think this is the biggest mistake Apple has ever made. Really?!? What about the special event to announce a $100 leather iPod case? Antenna-gate? Apple Maps? I understand everyone is frustrated. But to claim that not allowing lines to form or not enabling scalpers to profit is the "biggest mistake Apple has ever made" is, I believe, short-sighted.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Dec 14, 2012 9:01:31 GMT -8
Rob, independents are using methods that do not work anymore. Old growth rates do not do any good at these levels. What annoys me is the P/E. Even with a slowing of growth, AAPL should trade higher than 12. The launch last year in China was a disaster. Thousands of people gathered outside and Apple did not open the doors because there were to many scalpers in the crowd. The new system does what? eliminates the crowds. I think this is the biggest mistake Apple has ever made. It is not like there were not scalpers across the world in previous launches. Defend Apple all you want, this is a bad move in my mind. I think you're making too much out of this. You said last year's launch was a disaster, and it was cause there was a small riot outside that Apple Store. They didn't open the door "because there were to[o] many scalpers in the crowd?" How did you arrive at that? I think they didn't open the door because they didn't want to be mauled... Remember, there are only a half dozen Apple stores in the whole giant country. If Apple didn't create restrictions, those few locations would continue (maybe) to be over-run on launch days - as in more loss of control, possible rioting, looting... I think it's ultimately smarter to mute the initial turn-out there with a reservation system, than to have your stores over-run by wackos. Yes, it may hurt the perception of iPhone demand, but I'm sure Apple cares more about actual sales (and their store-front glass) than opening day hype. JMHO.
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