4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 15, 2012 15:37:48 GMT -8
That ~$80B in cash sitting overseas will sit there until Apple gets some sort of tax break for bringing it back. So stop counting it until that happens. I thought Apple had already set aside money to pay for the taxes, when giving earnings. Thus it's ready to repatriate the money if it really needs it, but is happy to keep it overseas for now and use it there as opportunities overseas come up. It's more like a huge oceanfront house that you love, or a huge diamond that you wife wears daily. It's relatively easily converted to cash. But it's gotta be an opportunity you just can't pass, and there is going to be some money lost when converting it over to cash quickly. It's a great reserve to have, but if the right opportunity came along I have no doubt that Apple would utilize it. OTOH, part of it can be a big hedge against losing money in the future. If Apple were ever to lose a few billion in a very bad Q, it could repatriate an equal amount to come out even on taxes. If say $20B is a hedge against potential losses for a couple years, why prepay taxes on that and then carry a tax loss forward if bad times actually come, instead of not paying the taxes up front but still having the safety net. It's like having both a ROTH and traditional IRA in retirement, being able to draw from each to fit your needs and yet tweak the percentages to minimize your tax bill.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 15, 2012 16:37:17 GMT -8
Hobbit film, starring Martin Freeman and Ian McCellan, gets a solid B+. Star Trek Into Darkness will be released in theaters summer 2013.
I'm thinking we need more anecdotal reports from retail locations: Apple, Walmart and specialty locations.
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Post by tuffett on Dec 15, 2012 16:47:42 GMT -8
Not to mention the fact that although nobody really knows, there's a good chance that iPad Mini margins are equal to or perhaps even higher than the regular iPads:
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Post by po1nt on Dec 15, 2012 17:08:57 GMT -8
I'm thinking we need more anecdotal reports from retail locations: Apple, Walmart and specialty locations. Ok I have one. I was at a local Target getting an iPad 4th gen for the parents and did a stock check. They had 1 single iPad mini in stock- a black 64g. Thats it. The guy who worked there said that as soon as they get a batch in, they sell them. Stock was limited for the 4th gen ipad, but they had each memory size available, but not in both colors. He said the mini was in much more demand them the full size iPad (around 2 to 1). People see that $329 price tag and thats what they go for. They had almost all ipods in stock. Out on 1 or 2 of the colors, but nothing like the mini. I think the iPad mini is really going to post some good sales #'s in Q1. Side note, I was thinking about margins on the mini. I began to wonder if apple was protecting their margins NEXT year with the build specs of the mini (low res camera and screen, A5 processor). Because in 1 year or less, Apple will more than likely have an iPad mini with retina display and better cameras/processor. Knowing this they decided to make sure that they could sell the current model with the lower end specs, next year for $279-$299. If they jumped the gun now and delivered a mini that had the same specs as the full size, then there wouldn't be a way to do that without eating into margins too much when they had to sell it for a lower price next year. I think this quarter will be the only one that the full size ipad out sells the mini. And at those quantities, and current build spec, I dont think margins will be an issue. I think Apple designed it with next years discounted pricing in mind, and a $279 iPad will be HUGE. Just some random thoughts, hope everyone is enjoying their weekend! -edit: Just read the post above and it sounds like I may be correct with my thinking. They have above average margins now, so next year they can lower the price and bring the margin down to their current average.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 15, 2012 18:08:15 GMT -8
iPad, how much, uh, "stock" do you put into NASDAQ re-shuffling? affecting AAPL? A potential factor that influenced institutional sentiment.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 15, 2012 18:12:46 GMT -8
Adjusting iPad to unit sales to more mini sounds like a 20-40 cent hit to EPS.
Any iPhone or Mac anecdotes ?
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Post by kloot on Dec 15, 2012 18:14:29 GMT -8
There will be no buyback, and if it happens, it will just show more weakness from the company. The stock is on a downturn and has to prove itself now. Don't fight the trend, be careful. Just repeating what posted last week. Merry Christmas to all. Better days are waiting around the corner. Why is AAPL buying back stock at 8x PE not the best use of 40B on-shore and 80B off-shore cash and ~45$/sh of earnings/yr? Why is it a sign of weakness? Why does AAPL need 120B of cash? that grows has 40B or so a year? The cash is shareholder cash. +1 it's foolish to hold 120B in cash. part of it should be returned to shareholders or turned into non-cash assets (acquisition, supply chain, etc). they are growing cash faster than they know what to do with it, even with the dividend.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 15, 2012 18:20:30 GMT -8
Apple will continue to hold the line on the cash hoard unless interest rates make it better for Apple to hold it or something. Apple is firmly committed to some combo of divvy and buyback.
But _the_ limiting factor is the amount of leverage Apple can actually bring to bear on a program when cash is "trapped" offshore. It's no small chunk of change to repatriate foreign earnings. There's reserving cash for taxes (as Apple does), and then there's _paying_ it out of Braeburn Capital in the event of a repatriation.
Btw, if there _was_ a repatriation-type deal in the future, I guess Apple would have to restate earnings to the upside if I'm reading the SEC quarterly/annual filings right. Interesting.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 15, 2012 18:29:10 GMT -8
Adjusting iPad to unit sales to more mini sounds like a 20-40 cent hit to EPS. Any iPhone or Mac anecdotes ? Basically: iPhone 5 basically in available at carriers and apple stores ->Q4 numbers fine but Q1 hangover could be substantial iPad 4 supply > demand -> downside to expectations iPad mini demand > supply -> PROFIT PER UNIT 1/2-1/3 less than iPad4 Mac initial ramp so not meaningful data and probably miss but no one will care.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 15, 2012 18:40:47 GMT -8
Lots of armchair CEO's in this thread. I wasn't aware that there was an opening.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 15, 2012 18:44:56 GMT -8
Apple will continue to hold the line on the cash hoard unless interest rates make it better for Apple to hold it or something. Apple is firmly committed to some combo of divvy and buyback. But _the_ limiting factor is the amount of leverage Apple can actually bring to bear on a program when cash is "trapped" offshore. It's no small chunk of change to repatriate foreign earnings. There's reserving cash for taxes (as Apple does), and then there's _paying_ it out of Braeburn Capital in the event of a repatriation. Btw, if there _was_ a repatriation-type deal in the future, I guess Apple would have to restate earnings to the upside if I'm reading the SEC quarterly/annual filings right. Interesting. Offshore cash is NOT the limiting factor. They can issue easily 60B of 5year debt w/ AA+ rating and pay 1.2% pa (5yr treasury + 50bps). This is a FACT. The offshore cash stays offshore until tax laws change. If and when there is a foreign tax deal then they repatriate. Otherwise they pay off debt from cashflows. This is a FACT. In fact, there is no need to issue debt until they spend at least most on shore cash. Folks need do some homework sometime... I agree somethings are just opinions but others are not.
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Post by seabiscuit on Dec 15, 2012 18:47:07 GMT -8
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 15, 2012 18:47:54 GMT -8
Rumor Fiscal cliff deal offered by Boehnor
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 15, 2012 18:49:34 GMT -8
That ~$80B in cash sitting overseas will sit there until Apple gets some sort of tax break for bringing it back. So stop counting it until that happens. I thought Apple had already set aside money to pay for the taxes, when giving earnings. Thus it's ready to repatriate the money if it really needs it, but is happy to keep it overseas for now and use it there as opportunities overseas come up. It's more like a huge oceanfront house that you love, or a huge diamond that you wife wears daily. It's relatively easily converted to cash. But it's gotta be an opportunity you just can't pass, and there is going to be some money lost when converting it over to cash quickly. It's a great reserve to have, but if the right opportunity came along I have no doubt that Apple would utilize it. What I recall from 10K and earnings calls is that AAPL reserves a level for taxes for the amount it "might" be repatriated. i.e. they do some but you have no idea how much. basically, they want to want to look ok on the "accounting tax line" while having a low "actual" tax. look at their last 10k or google for their actual effect tax rate paid.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 15, 2012 18:58:03 GMT -8
That ~$80B in cash sitting overseas will sit there until Apple gets some sort of tax break for bringing it back. So stop counting it until that happens. And I am for more dividends paid to me, owner of the corporation. If you don't want yours, I'll take them. Financially and accounting wise, they do NOT need to bring the cash back to use it. Just issue debt backed by the cash. No idea why one would just ignore it. Dividends are not tax efficient. Dividend rate wll rise to somewhere between 20-30%. Buybacks are dollar for dollar more efficent if you believe that the company is undervalued. If you believe it is overvalued then is the biggest waste of money.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 15, 2012 19:01:29 GMT -8
Lots of armchair CEO's in this thread. I wasn't aware that there was an opening. Not sure, what you referring to but. But shareholders discussing what the company should do with shareholder money is NOT armchair CEOing.
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Post by applemuncher on Dec 15, 2012 19:06:20 GMT -8
His analysis is 100% technical. The fact that he does not know how to value a company based on fundamentals tells me a lot. I wonder what percentage of the market trades on fundamentals vs technicals? Anyway, here is his reply to a good question. Hi Kim, I have anther question based on the fundamentals. If Apple stock drops down to $360 next Feb as you suggested may happen, it means Apple's market cap will be down to $350B. But with $130B+ cash and continue to have annual revenue of around $200B and EPS of $50, it seems difficult to believe such a company with market cap of only $350B. On the other hand, purely from chart point of view, your analysis make sense as well. Should we totally decouple fundamentals from technical analysis here? Your comment on this is highly appreciated. shareflag 2kaykim27 pts Marketview well i dont know.. i can't answer you on that one. I only trade off of technicals and not fundamentals. in fact i don't know how all of that stuff even works. I guess you can ask your self about that market cap and the all other fundamental stuff when the stock was trading at $700. The fundamental was great with iPhone 5 and iPad mini coming on the way and going into the holiday season. That was late september. so how did $700 stock lose $200 points within 2 months with such a great fundamental numbers? well again i dont' know. And i guess it was good thing that I didn't know because I made lot of $$$ buying Puts at around $700 until about $540. Fundamental vs Technical have always been opposite side of the spectrum for a while now and its not often that they agree. So I would do your fundamental analysis on $AAPL and if that has been working out well for you, trade accordingly based upon your fundamental research. hope this helps. thnx for your question though.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 15, 2012 19:07:27 GMT -8
On the plus side: He is from MINNESOTA SO IS Gene Munster, and some fine members of this great bar. OTOH: His full time job is as a JANITOR. I like to take my investment advice from my barber, taxi driver and shoe shine fella.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2012 19:08:59 GMT -8
That's the most retarded article I have ever read. Completely ignores fundamentals. At $360, apple would be trading at an TTM ex cash P/E of about 5, which is frankly absurd.
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Post by ibuyer on Dec 15, 2012 19:22:11 GMT -8
That's the most retarded article I have ever read. Completely ignores fundamentals. At $360, apple would be trading at an TTM ex cash P/E of about 5, which is frankly absurd. That is what dell and HP trades at... Still retarded. as wheeles says, price is a function of liquidity. (pls could you elaborate much more on that - like metrics you use and i you track changes in it). If everyone is selling and no one is buying then it could go much lower. See 2008/9 drop to 80 as an example. Remember if management has the same view as some members of this board not to do a buyback. The stock could be sold into a bidless market
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Post by Apple II+ on Dec 15, 2012 20:46:58 GMT -8
Hobbit film, starring Martin Freeman and Ian McCellan, gets a solid B+. Star Trek Into Darkness will be released in theaters summer 2013. I'm thinking we need more anecdotal reports from retail locations: Apple, Walmart and specialty locations. We will see The Hobbit tomorrow, but let's focus on what really matters. Disney bought Lucasfilm, and we're getting more Star Wars movies!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 15, 2012 21:22:48 GMT -8
Still can't get used to Darth Vader in Disneyland
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Post by bribery on Dec 15, 2012 22:49:11 GMT -8
News is breaking late Saturday that House Speaker John Boehner has offered a fiscal cliff deal that would involve tax hikes on those earning more than $1 million, rather than the $250,000 ceiling demanded by President Obama.
There are only reports from “a source close to the negotiations” for now, but that’s enough for many to express their feelings.
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mark
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Post by mark on Dec 15, 2012 22:49:56 GMT -8
Walmart discounts making their way thru the Twitter-sphere. Chances are that WMT takes the margin hit - we don't even know for certain but what the hell - just keep piling it on! Really? Is Wal-Mart's margin on the iPad a hundred bucks?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 15, 2012 23:11:36 GMT -8
It's the iPad 3 apparently. Very different pricing posture. Heck, I didn't even know they sold iPad 3s new.
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mark
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Post by mark on Dec 15, 2012 23:46:49 GMT -8
That ~$80B in cash sitting overseas will sit there until Apple gets some sort of tax break for bringing it back. So stop counting it until that happens. And I am for more dividends paid to me, owner of the corporation. If you don't want yours, I'll take them. I generally agree (though may change my mind with new tax law). Besides, anyone who doesn't like receiving dividends can simply reinvest them into stock and remain in a more or less equal position.
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mark
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Post by mark on Dec 15, 2012 23:57:41 GMT -8
That's the most retarded article I have ever read. Completely ignores fundamentals. At $360, apple would be trading at an TTM ex cash P/E of about 5, which is frankly absurd. That is what dell and HP trades at... Still retarded. as wheeles says, price is a function of liquidity. (pls could you elaborate much more on that - like metrics you use and i you track changes in it). If everyone is selling and no one is buying then it could go much lower. See 2008/9 drop to 80 as an example.Remember if management has the same view as some members of this board not to do a buyback. The stock could be sold into a bidless market Stock price of 80 on 2008 earnings would be a P/E of 11.8, we're already below that now.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 0:26:56 GMT -8
Apples to apples? Is that current GAAP EPS?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2012 0:33:46 GMT -8
That's the most retarded article I have ever read. Completely ignores fundamentals. At $360, apple would be trading at an TTM ex cash P/E of about 5, which is frankly absurd. That is what dell and HP trades at... Still retarded. as wheeles says, price is a function of liquidity. (pls could you elaborate much more on that - like metrics you use and i you track changes in it). If everyone is selling and no one is buying then it could go much lower. See 2008/9 drop to 80 as an example. Remember if management has the same view as some members of this board not to do a buyback. The stock could be sold into a bidless market HP & Dell trade at PE of 9 & 7 respectively - a big difference from a PE of 5. A PE of 5 is equivalent to a 20% annual return - effectively a junk bond rate.
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mark
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Post by mark on Dec 16, 2012 1:37:25 GMT -8
That is what dell and HP trades at... Still retarded. as wheeles says, price is a function of liquidity. (pls could you elaborate much more on that - like metrics you use and i you track changes in it). If everyone is selling and no one is buying then it could go much lower. See 2008/9 drop to 80 as an example. Remember if management has the same view as some members of this board not to do a buyback. The stock could be sold into a bidless market HP & Dell trade at PE of 9 & 7 respectively - a big difference from a PE of 5. A PE of 5 is equivalent to a 20% annual return - effectively a junk bond rate. Are those the P/E numbers (HP and Dell) for forward estimated earnings or TTM earnings?
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