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Post by wheeles on Dec 16, 2012 15:03:36 GMT -8
As best I can figure it, sentiment drives the stock price. The balance of greed/fear and the "perception" of what the future holds drives supply/demand. Supply/demand drives the stock price. And the stock price drives the technicals. sentiment (greed/fear) ---> supply/demand ---> stock price ---> technicals I think the hardest thing for me to understand (because it defies logic) is that fundamentals don't drive sentiment as much as greed and fear. IMHO, behavioral finance (crowd psychology) runs the show. Don't forget liquidity. You may want to buy more, but because of factors relating to available cash on hand, you may be forced to sell.
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Post by rickag on Dec 16, 2012 15:04:20 GMT -8
I still hate the color red, I suppose Apple did this in honor of all the irritating red candles on my stock chart. And yes my tinfoil hat fits nice and tight. Maybe when AAPL's candle sticks turn green they will issue green shirts. I have always been a huge fan of red, especially something from VS, but lately I am thinking about banning red. ;D Rick, My hat is showing signs of wear. lol What's intolerable is I have a red car aaaarrrrrgggghhhh.
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Post by playultimate on Dec 16, 2012 15:19:11 GMT -8
The Hobbit was quite good. Haven't read it in a long time, but I imagine some of the negative film reviews must be from folks who didn't read it or didn't appreciate the book. Or maybe they just don't like the 48fps 3D, but we saw it in 2D. Or maybe they didn't like the length. It does have more of the extended version feel, but the extended versions of the LOTR movies were better anyway. A+ Saw it opening night as 12:03A, 48fps 3D w/ATMOS Dolby. Amazing production!!
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Post by jeffi on Dec 16, 2012 15:30:19 GMT -8
That ~$80B in cash sitting overseas will sit there until Apple gets some sort of tax break for bringing it back. So stop counting it until that happens. And I am for more dividends paid to me, owner of the corporation. If you don't want yours, I'll take them. Financially and accounting wise, they do NOT need to bring the cash back to use it. Just issue debt backed by the cash. No idea why one would just ignore it. Dividends are not tax efficient. Dividend rate wll rise to somewhere between 20-30%. Buybacks are dollar for dollar more efficent if you believe that the company is undervalued. If you believe it is overvalued then is the biggest waste of money. Please post more. Your clear finacial logic is desperately needed in this forum. IMHO
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 16, 2012 15:39:52 GMT -8
Kass just tweeted about a Citi downgrade on AAPL, price target lowered from 675 to 575. Yuck. Feels like this should be a contrarian sign, but that's probably just my hope talking.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 15:43:01 GMT -8
Kass just tweeted about a Citi downgrade on AAPL, price target lowered from 675 to 575. Yuck. Feels like this should be a contrarian sign, but that's probably just my hope talking. That should push AAPL over its cliff. Gonna be a tough day/week. This explains, a lot. It shows what has really happened. All of the big players have front run the downgrades. It really makes me wonder if Apple can beat $13.x EPS.
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Post by jeffi on Dec 16, 2012 15:49:26 GMT -8
Kass just tweeted about a Citi downgrade on AAPL, price target lowered from 675 to 575. Yuck. Feels like this should be a contrarian sign, but that's probably just my hope talking. That should push AAPL over its cliff. Gonna be a tough day/week. The bottom should appear between now and the end of the year. Typically, stocks bottom when they don't drop on negative news. I believe we are nearing that point. As I recently said, the smart money buys at the end of the year. The rest of us are bottom fishing (I did some on Friday).
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 16, 2012 15:51:34 GMT -8
Kass just tweeted about a Citi downgrade on AAPL, price target lowered from 675 to 575. Yuck. Feels like this should be a contrarian sign, but that's probably just my hope talking. Definitely a sign the bottom is near and they're getting ready to load up.
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Post by bribery on Dec 16, 2012 16:09:39 GMT -8
Kass just tweeted about a Citi downgrade on AAPL, price target lowered from 675 to 575. Yuck. Feels like this should be a contrarian sign, but that's probably just my hope talking. Show me the twit. I cannot find it. I'm afraid it's big BS
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 16:11:03 GMT -8
Kass just tweeted about a Citi downgrade on AAPL, price target lowered from 675 to 575. Yuck. Feels like this should be a contrarian sign, but that's probably just my hope talking. Show me the twit. I cannot find it. I'm afraid it's big BS It is real, I have seen it.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 16, 2012 16:14:49 GMT -8
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Post by bribery on Dec 16, 2012 16:18:21 GMT -8
I'm reading "The article regarding the downgrade is from 2007.". Who knows. Kass is known to be a bear. This makes absolutely no sense. They began coverage 3 weeks ago with a bullish note from their 3-people team.
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Post by jeffi on Dec 16, 2012 16:34:20 GMT -8
Kass just tweeted about a Citi downgrade on AAPL, price target lowered from 675 to 575. Yuck. Feels like this should be a contrarian sign, but that's probably just my hope talking. Show me the twit. I cannot find it. I'm afraid it's big BS It is real. I have the report. They have changed their mind from 3 weeks ago. They stated that the "buy" was for trade, not investment.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 16, 2012 16:35:23 GMT -8
I'm reading "The article regarding the downgrade is from 2007.". Who knows. Kass is known to be a bear. This makes absolutely no sense. They began coverage 3 weeks ago with a bullish note from their 3-people team. Citi in and of itself is a joke - this 3 person team is nothing more than a 3 ring circus trying to get attention for the firm that has been so badly damaged at so many levels including the latest debacle in firing Vikram Pandit. Cramer said last week that when stocks go down like this and all the PTs are high above - to be prepared that the analysts will not want to be left hanging out there so they will muster up reasons - any reasons - the "reason of the day" - to be able to adjust their PT lower. And so it begins with Citi -
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 16, 2012 16:41:01 GMT -8
Jeffi, is there anything interesting in the report?
It makes no sense that AAPL could go lower from here; the only thing to justify such a valuation is a wide belief that AAPL's earnings are going down. Hopefully Jan's report will clear that up once and for all.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 16, 2012 16:46:11 GMT -8
okay, so there's a twit. No link of harder confirmation ?
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 16, 2012 16:48:14 GMT -8
Show me the twit. I cannot find it. I'm afraid it's big BS It is real. I have the report. They have changed their mind from 3 weeks ago. They stated that the "buy" was for trade, not investment. The "buy" was for a "trade!?" THREE WEEKS AGO? The stock has done nothing but go down since then. What are they frigging talking about?! Unbelievable.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 16:51:07 GMT -8
Kass is saying that it is a demand issue. I just don't get it. The p/e is 11.5. Even if AAPL contracted 10% on EPS for 2013 its cash would grow substantially with a net cash p/e of 10ish. I always knew the growth would slow, but I also thought the market would respect the cash accumulation. More angry than anything now.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 16, 2012 16:52:34 GMT -8
Kass is saying that it is a demand issue. Demand based on what? The lines outside the stores in China or are they saying something else?
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Post by kloot on Dec 16, 2012 16:54:25 GMT -8
IMO that's Worstall's best article for Forbes. he's usually bitching about either china labor conditions or rounded corners.
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 16, 2012 16:57:35 GMT -8
It is real. I have the report. They have changed their mind from 3 weeks ago. They stated that the "buy" was for trade, not investment. The "buy" was for a "trade!?" THREE WEEKS AGO? The stock has done nothing but go down since then. What are they frigging talking about?! Unbelievable. Allow me to put my tin foil hat on... Initiate BUY call and short AAPL. Three weeks later, downgrade AAPL, monitor the stampede to the exits - pounce.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 16, 2012 17:01:03 GMT -8
I think its time to put the pressure on in the mainstream press. PED or Eric Savitz could make a column if there are some people willing to put some smooth prose together.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 17:01:32 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 16, 2012 17:03:44 GMT -8
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Post by aapl4kiki on Dec 16, 2012 17:06:08 GMT -8
Tomorrow just got very interesting. Gap down and a huge bounce?
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Post by bribery on Dec 16, 2012 17:07:38 GMT -8
I love you. I was about to cry with that citigroup downgrade.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 16, 2012 17:07:50 GMT -8
What was this Board anticipating on preliminary #s for China?
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Post by fariba on Dec 16, 2012 17:08:01 GMT -8
stks.co/fHQHremember citi and goldman are notorious for doing then opposite of what they post
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 16, 2012 17:10:51 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 17:11:31 GMT -8
IMO that's Worstall's best article for Forbes. he's usually bitching about either china labor conditions or rounded corners. Surprised to hear a journalist point out journalism manipulation.
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