|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 16, 2012 19:15:29 GMT -8
Also, wasn't the 5 mil first weekend part of last quarter? not saying we won't crush 37, but I don't think you can count those.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 19:18:52 GMT -8
You can't, but you can see the supply shortages and connect the dots of demand. You can also try force-fitting estimates for Oppenheimer's quarterly guidance and going from there. iPhone 5S sales should be pretty sweet, and maybe better than 6M in the first three days.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 19:31:04 GMT -8
LOL, they did not get it until January and that was one carrier. The other did not come until March. The compares are not very comparable. So let me get this straight. Last year we sold 37m iPhones. With no China and a bunch of other countries. We sold 4m in the first weekend, domestically. This year we sell 5m in the first weekend, have a 100 country rollout (including china), and report "record" first weekend sales...... how do we not absolutely crush the 37m number from last year again? correct
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2012 20:11:44 GMT -8
There will be no buyback, and if it happens, it will just show more weakness from the company. The stock is on a downturn and has to prove itself now. Don't fight the trend, be careful. Just repeating what posted last week. Merry Christmas to all. Better days are waiting around the corner. (Sound of sea gulls in background) Ding Ding. Ding Ding. Gray Matter. Arriving
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 20:13:42 GMT -8
Pffft. That's not a very subtle way of saying anyone who thinks Apple may have an expanded buyback program in 2013 is an idiot.
Hey, why not include anyone who thinks Apple may do a share split next year? (I'd be hit on both counts.)
Reasonable people can disagree, y'know.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Dec 16, 2012 20:21:44 GMT -8
There will be no buyback, and if it happens, it will just show more weakness from the company. The stock is on a downturn and has to prove itself now. Don't fight the trend, be careful. Just repeating what posted last week. Merry Christmas to all. Better days are waiting around the corner. (Sound of sea gulls in background) Ding Ding. Ding Ding. Gray Matter. Arriving On the contrary, I'd say a buyback shows confidence from a company that their shares will appreciate over time, proving the buyback to be a great use of cash. Granted, this doesn't work out a lot of time as many companies are falsely confident, but in Apple's case it would show strength and be almost sure to pan out.
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Dec 16, 2012 20:24:37 GMT -8
I can't imagine if at my job I was able to state something one way and have my whole company, or other companies, invest in a technology, and then 3 weeks later I'd pull a 180 and say, oops. I'd be instantly fired.
They probably get rewarded for their scum-tactics.
Anyway this china PR is exciting. Sir isaac aka 20dayema is getting quite pumped it seems. Lets see- so after the two million in the first 3 day weekend, there are 14 more days in the quarter. I wouldn't estimate they sell at that pace for the two weeks to come (that would be 9.3m more 5's in china, totaling 11.3 only iPhone5's from china alone).
I think another 5m in the next two weeks would be pretty awesome though.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 20:26:42 GMT -8
Apple is NOT one of those _other_ buyback companies that gave buybacks a bad name. (Even though the current program's just for anti-dilution.)
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,570
|
Post by mark on Dec 16, 2012 20:27:51 GMT -8
That's almost like the big F.U. to the goons at Citi! ;D
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 20:29:23 GMT -8
Yeah, darn shame Citi didn't know about Apple's strategy shift when it comes to sales data releases. Time once was Citi and others with ill-sourced reports would have at least a month or so without an official "response". Ouch.
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on Dec 16, 2012 20:29:52 GMT -8
Do we know the timing of the Apple press release vs. the Citi downgrade? Hope the downgrade came right before the press release. These analysts need to learn to keep quiet unless they know what they're talking about.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 20:36:21 GMT -8
Irrelevant, really. Since the reports are so close together, there's no way Citi would've released that downgrade knowing what Apple had "up its sleeve." A Citi double down at this point would be kind of hilarious.
|
|
|
Post by qualitywte on Dec 16, 2012 20:54:48 GMT -8
Visited ABQ Apple store today. Business seemed very brisk, everything immediately in stock except iPad Mini which had some limited availability based on size/color. Clerk said iPhones and the 21.5" iMacs were selling very well.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 20:58:01 GMT -8
Those new iMacs are sweeeet. Both were on display at my local Apple Store. The only evidence I could see of cost engineering, if any, is the flimsier-seeming way the iMac tilts on its swivel. Then again, the iMac undergoing quite the aluminum diet may something to do with it. The iMac is a really thin computer in _all_ dimensions. The edges are impressively sturdy and the curve hiding the rest of the computer isn't the least bit jarring. That RAM bay (unfortunately, a 27" iMac exclusive) is a nice little bit of engineering too. iMac has a great design for the next 2-3 years, and I think it'll sell quite well. I ordered one.
|
|
|
Post by nagrani on Dec 16, 2012 21:01:06 GMT -8
Can we pls start a "call of shame" thread and induct citi and UBS guys as first entrants?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 21:04:58 GMT -8
Hey, you can be THAT GUY™ nagrani! ;D
First, though, might be a good idea to see if there's repudiation. Y'know, like AAPL breaking out of this miserable downtrend. It's only a shame if it didn't work.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 21:16:25 GMT -8
Pffft. That's not a very subtle way of saying anyone who thinks Apple may have an expanded buyback program in 2013 is an idiot. Hey, why not include anyone who thinks Apple may do a share split next year? (I'd be hit on both counts.) Reasonable people can disagree, y'know. Mav, it is not even worth discussing. Apple is doing a buy back now so their argument is lame. It is not an aggressive buy back program, but one that keeps dilution in check, but still a buy back. Apple paying a dividend also is something these people said would never happen. Like you, I can see a split or a buy back. The proof is in the pudding. BTW, just this past week there have been numerous buy back announcements. Manny of them large companies. www.streetinsider.com/Stock+Buybacks/I stand behind my belief that a buy back is the best use of excessive cash.
|
|
|
Post by rosie on Dec 16, 2012 21:17:30 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 21:19:32 GMT -8
Can we pls start a "call of shame" thread and induct citi and UBS guys as first entrants? Navin, you gotta get Lovey to put your kool-aid pic up. We could use some. What I find most interesting is the MS response, a beat down almost. As we know, MS carries a lot more weight than CITI's 3 weeks of coverage.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 16, 2012 21:21:56 GMT -8
Can we pls start a "call of shame" thread and induct citi and UBS guys as first entrants? Navin, you gotta get Lovey to put your kool-aid pic up. We could use some. What I find most interesting is the MS response, a beat down almost. As we know, MS carries a lot more weight than CITI's 3 weeks of coverage. And the stupid reversal...after three weeks? This is "research" that clients are supposed to trade on? What do they do now with the huge iPhone sales numbers...reverse back? Whiplash.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 21:26:09 GMT -8
And the stupid reversal...after three weeks? This is "research" that clients are supposed to trade on? What do they do now with the huge iPhone sales numbers...reverse back? Whiplash. Hey, at least they can still take it all back before market open Monday. ALL WS firms should release their research over the weekend. Allows some time for reflection...for...correction?
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 21:27:09 GMT -8
I have to say the pics of the stores on Friday in CHina were a little disheartening. I did a little digging on the weather. It was nasty. Lows in the 20's and rain/snow/sleet. Not exactly a postcard day for a launch. I still disagree with Apple's strategy in China, but the people were not going to fare to well in that kind of weather. I am very impressed with the 2 million number.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 21:32:31 GMT -8
Apple Stores, despite their size and iconic presence, will NOT be where all the sales action is in China.
One thing I'd love to know is what products Apple ships to Chinese customers. If iPhone/iPad can (eventually) drop ship to people's homes the same way as it's done in the US and many other parts of the world, it just makes using lines as demand proxies that much more ridiculous.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 21:34:31 GMT -8
I just hope that Apple does not bunch its products together in launches next year.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 16, 2012 21:36:37 GMT -8
I had a fortune cookie today that said: Your luck is going to change today. I came home and saw the Citi downgrade (I view this as a positive) and the China sales (an obvious positive). Now it's time to follow through on the good luck with a nice up day tomorrow.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 21:37:57 GMT -8
It All Depends.™
Apple knows it's not in an ideal state right now. I'm quite sure it's trying its damndest to unify software readiness (iOS-wise, anyway), with iPhone itself (read: A7 chip and other hardware improvements) as much as possible. Cue (pun intended) Federighi. The stage is yours.
I'm thinking Apple is shooting for an early September or better iPhone 5S launch to start. Maybe even mid-August. As for iPad 5? Who knows.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2012 21:39:18 GMT -8
I had a fortune cookie today that said: Your luck is going to change today. I came home and saw the Citi downgrade (I view this as a positive) and the China sales (an obvious positive). Now it's time to follow through on the good luck with a nice up day tomorrow. Hilarious. You should make that your avatar.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 16, 2012 21:57:13 GMT -8
Navin, you gotta get Lovey to put your kool-aid pic up. We could use some. While I was looking for Navin's old avatar, look what I found!
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 21:59:16 GMT -8
It All Depends.™ Apple knows it's not in an ideal state right now. I'm quite sure it's trying its damndest to unify software readiness (iOS-wise, anyway), with iPhone itself (read: A7 chip and other hardware improvements) as much as possible. Cue (pun intended) Federighi. The stage is yours. I'm thinking Apple is shooting for an early September or better iPhone 5S launch to start. Maybe even mid-August. As for iPad 5? Who knows. The Christmas quarter should never be constrained for any devices. The iMacs have been loooong overdue for upgrade, this should never have happened. The Mini was a reaction to the market, kudos to Apple. BTW, I still think we go below 500 this week.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 16, 2012 22:00:25 GMT -8
While I was looking for Navin's old avatar, look what I found! Hilarious.
|
|