|
Post by phoebear611 on Dec 17, 2012 17:08:59 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 17, 2012 17:10:34 GMT -8
Is there some reason you needed to remind us how miserable AAPL has been performing? I think we were aware of it. It's an interesting stat and I'm glad he shared it. As an investor you shouldn't shut yourself away from anything that doesn't make you feel good. Agree the reaction was a little harsh, but considering what we have been through, understandable.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 17, 2012 17:18:02 GMT -8
The FourSquare speculation would appear to fit in perfectly with iOS DNA. If Apple didn't already have FourSquare's type of data, they should.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 17, 2012 17:19:08 GMT -8
Hmm pre market buyers responding more to down grade than china news. Interesting... Max put OI at 520 with second most at 500. Guessing max pain is well north 530ish or higher...hopefully some saving grace... OI at the Open was 4,398,140. That's as high as I've seen it since early Spring. It is currently higher than day after ATH by 47%. Since then Calls have increased by 842,000, while Puts have increased by 58,000. It appears that further out Puts are being Closed, while new Puts (much fewer than being closed) are being Opened closer in (two weeks?). Calls are increasing more than two weeks out by a large degree. Earnings rally to commence right after Christmas? Options OI seems to indicate so. Thank you for this info!!
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 17, 2012 17:29:24 GMT -8
Option traders help me out here. I have some Jan 2014 calls 800s. The OI has doubled (like 10K to 20K) since 1 Oct with a major jump on 22 and 23 Oct. I do know what OI is but I am a little surprised that during this huge drop the OI has doubled. Any thoughts on that kind of jump? Rollovers? I keep raving about those JAN'14 800/850s to anyone who will listen. One of my trading buddies (in Avi's group) has at least 100. ;D
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
|
Post by mark on Dec 17, 2012 17:36:51 GMT -8
Option traders help me out here. I have some Jan 2014 calls 800s. The OI has doubled (like 10K to 20K) since 1 Oct with a major jump on 22 and 23 Oct. I do know what OI is but I am a little surprised that during this huge drop the OI has doubled. Any thoughts on that kind of jump? Rollovers? I keep raving about those JAN'14 800/850s to anyone who will listen. One of my trading buddies (in Avi's group) has at least 100. ;D Sounds a bit risky to me. Now Jan '15 800/850's are a different story
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Dec 17, 2012 17:40:04 GMT -8
Gregg - your commentary as always is valuable. You look at things in different ways and it helps to layer on all this information. Thanks!
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 17, 2012 17:42:52 GMT -8
I keep raving about those JAN'14 800/850s to anyone who will listen. One of my trading buddies (in Avi's group) has at least 100. ;D Lovey, I know you have been talking about those since the 600's. Honestly, with the difference being only $3ish I would think the 700/750 spread would be the place to park. Buy 100 for $65k for a $500k payout. I know the math says the 800/850 is a better ROI % wise, but that extra 100 for security would seem prudent. I just wish I had the funds to buy those LEAP spreads. The 800/850 was going for $9 around earnings.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Dec 17, 2012 17:52:28 GMT -8
Obama back with a counter offer for Boehner ...futures green
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Dec 17, 2012 17:54:03 GMT -8
I keep raving about those JAN'14 800/850s to anyone who will listen. One of my trading buddies (in Avi's group) has at least 100. ;D Lovey, I know you have been talking about those since the 600's. Honestly, with the difference being only $3ish I would think the 700/750 spread would be the place to park. Buy 100 for $65k for a $500k payout. I know the math says the 800/850 is a better ROI % wise, but that extra 100 for security would seem prudent. I just wish I had the funds to buy those LEAP spreads. The 800/850 was going for $9 around earnings. I agree with the more conservative route. Jan options are the ones that are manipulated the most as we have clearly seen this year. If I had the cash, I'd enter a bunch of 700/750s and close half to reduce my cost basis to zero at the first opportunity. Then consider taking profit at ~70% of full value for a still huge gain.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2012 18:05:27 GMT -8
I submit the following, to be accepted or rejected, used or discarded, as the reader deems appropriate.
Went to FedEx to send off an overnight letter late this afternoon. In the middle of the room were two guys busily taping up FedEx boxes. Eleven of them. As I worked my way through the mess I couldn't help but notice that each was loaded identically with a ton (turns out to have been 40 each) iPhone 5s. THAT picquet my interest so the question was asked, "What do you do, to have so many iPhone 5s?"
Turns out this was the owner of a small computer shop (sole proprietor/employee) in a small suburb, here in the Inland Pacific Northwest. He has a customer in the MIddle East that places orders through him for the latest new products from Apple.
He is at the Apple Store every morning when they open and buys iPhones/iPads (separate orders). As many as Store inventory allows. Until about 2 weeks ago he would clean the Store of its inventory.
When new products come out he is able to pick up 10 - 20 PER DAY. This is how inventory availability has been since the launch of the iPhone 5 and the iPad mini. That is until about 2 - 3 weeks ago. In that time he has been buying 200 - 500 iPhone 5s EVERY DAY, one purchase at a time unless larger quantities are allowed (currently its 5 units at a time).
Apple is aware of what he's doing, not helping but certainly turning a blind eye to it. The most you can say that Apple is doing, is making the inventory available when he comes in. He has had to hire a temp to help him this month. The FedEx box holds 40 iPhone 5s. Two layers of 16 with 8 along the side. There was nothing haphazard about the way the boxes were being taped and labeled. They were machine like identical when done (it was obvious that he has done this many times before).
So I asked his impression of iPhone 5 availability. Compared to the iPhone 4S launch, this one is going to be massive (his opinion). He has never seen supply hit current levels as quickly, or at such levels, as this launch. Orders from the Middle East are higher than any prior launch, by a "bunch".
This is one person's experience, so don't know how to factor that into this quarter's forecasts/estimates.
Oh, buying one handset at a time limits him to about 150 per day. A helper and larger order limits make it possible to get as many as 500 per day.
Some how I just can't imagine he is the only person with an offshore relationship like this. I think US sales numbers are meaningless, in light of this kind of activity.
|
|
|
Post by tuffett on Dec 17, 2012 18:13:42 GMT -8
Thanks Gregg, very interesting. 50M iPhones in a quarter is equivalent to selling more than 6 iPhones per second. It's truly staggering, but when you hear stories like this and consider how many other people are doing this in addition to regular consumer demand you can see how quickly it can add up.
The best news out of your story is that the supply seemed solid as far back as three weeks ago. This seems in line with Apple's shipping estimates, and we should get a full month of unconstrained sales at breakneck speeds, especially with China now in the mix and a bunch of other countries that just launched. I imagine Apple could be selling around a million iPhones a day right now.
|
|
|
Post by nathanstevens on Dec 17, 2012 18:19:31 GMT -8
I keep raving about those JAN'14 800/850s to anyone who will listen. One of my trading buddies (in Avi's group) has at least 100. ;D I've been listening for awhile I don't have 100...yet, but I'm pretty happy with a cost basis under $4/contract on the ones that I do have.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 17, 2012 18:45:26 GMT -8
I keep raving about those JAN'14 800/850s to anyone who will listen. One of my trading buddies (in Avi's group) has at least 100. ;D Lovey, I know you have been talking about those since the 600's. Honestly, with the difference being only $3ish I would think the 700/750 spread would be the place to park. Buy 100 for $65k for a $500k payout. I know the math says the 800/850 is a better ROI % wise, but that extra 100 for security would seem prudent. I just wish I had the funds to buy those LEAP spreads. The 800/850 was going for $9 around earnings. Oh, I have the JAN'14 700/750s too. ;D Not planning to hold anything to OE. I'll be in JAN'15s well before then.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 17, 2012 18:46:41 GMT -8
I keep raving about those JAN'14 800/850s to anyone who will listen. One of my trading buddies (in Avi's group) has at least 100. ;D I've been listening for awhile I don't have 100...yet, but I'm pretty happy with a cost basis under $4/contract on the ones that I do have. YAY!!!
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 18:52:53 GMT -8
Jan 14 800/850s is kinda far out tho.
Both in time and relative appreciation. How much does AAPL have to go up in what timeframe for it to really work, iPad? 50 points in 3 months? 100 in 6?
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 17, 2012 19:02:00 GMT -8
I agree with the more conservative route. Jan options are the ones that are manipulated the most as we have clearly seen this year. If I had the cash, I'd enter a bunch of 700/750s and close half to reduce my cost basis to zero at the first opportunity. Then consider taking profit at ~70% of full value for a still huge gain. Agree, and my thinking's in line with yours. I was out of all OCT'12, and JAN'13 spreads after JUL'12 earnings. Nothing earlier than APR'13, with the bulk of everything in JAN'14. I have a few automatic entry/exit rules. One exit rule is selling 1/2 position on a double, pulling out my initial investment, and zeroing the cost basis for the remaining 1/2 position. Another exit rule: in a downtrend, on the first big up oversold bounce, I sell a portion of whatever dip purchases I bought the previous day, no matter how much it hurts to sell at what always seems crazy bargain prices. But I tell myself I'll only be wrong once -- at the bottom. This rule has saved my butt more often than not. And it stretches the dip-buying when the dip that keeps f-ing dipping comes along.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 17, 2012 19:05:42 GMT -8
Jan 14 800/850s is kinda far out tho. Both in time and relative appreciation. How much does AAPL have to go up in what timeframe for it to really work, iPad? 50 points in 3 months? 100 in 6? 90 points in a week works especially well. On the November dive to 505.75, I bought a batch of JAN'14 800/850s @ 3.00. I sold 1/2 at 6.00 around 590-ish...and that KILLED me!! I did NOT want to sell. But that's why I have these stupid risk management rules for myself -- they save my butt more often than not. As of today, I've bought every one of those spreads back again.
|
|
|
Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 17, 2012 19:09:14 GMT -8
lovemyIPad, wht are ur particular risk managment rules? Fibs, MA failures? or do you take profit after some sort of quick run up (+10% in a week or two or something?)
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 19:15:16 GMT -8
90 points in a week. Right! Huh?!? Great trade, but I'm not sure we'll see anything like that again anytime soon.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 17, 2012 19:19:43 GMT -8
jdrizzo, read my reply to tuffett -- two posts before from yours. Mav, that's why JAN'14. I figure I have a good amount of wiggle room in case it takes more than a week next time to go up 90 points.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 19:22:56 GMT -8
Oh, I know.
But 700/750 would be more my speed, personally. Just me of course
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 17, 2012 19:45:36 GMT -8
Did I mention I have JAN'15 1000/1030s?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2012 20:03:21 GMT -8
Thanks Gregg, very interesting. 50M iPhones in a quarter is equivalent to selling more than 6 iPhones per second. It's truly staggering, but when you hear stories like this and consider how many other people are doing this in addition to regular consumer demand you can see how quickly it can add up. The best news out of your story is that the supply seemed solid as far back as three weeks ago. This seems in line with Apple's shipping estimates, and we should get a full month of unconstrained sales at breakneck speeds, especially with China now in the mix and a bunch of other countries that just launched. I imagine Apple could be selling around a million iPhones a day right now. I forget who said it (one of Wall Street's finest), but the statement was that Apple is producing iPhone 5s at a current run rate of 15 million per month. I'm inclined to think your number is closer to actual. Just now hitting 15 million per month would leave us terribly short of 45 million for the quarter.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 17, 2012 20:07:18 GMT -8
Option traders help me out here. I have some Jan 2014 calls 800s. The OI has doubled (like 10K to 20K) since 1 Oct with a major jump on 22 and 23 Oct. I do know what OI is but I am a little surprised that during this huge drop the OI has doubled. Any thoughts on that kind of jump? Rollovers? Since Sept 21 Open Interest has increased by 47%, with Calls leading Puts by a factor of 14:1. For the past 24 trading days the P/C Ratio has held steady between .65:1 and .68:1. The two year low P/C ratio is .62:1. I see this as long term very bullish. You should consider the doubling of Open Interest in your JAN 2014 $800 Calls as a very good sign. Thanks Gregg. Interesting facts and good perspective. The doubling of call open interest in a big price decline on an option so far out was puzzling.
|
|
|
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 17, 2012 20:09:14 GMT -8
This is encouraging....
------
Source: White House proposes $400K income cap 12/17/12 8:20 PM EST The White House has proposed raising tax rates on income above $400,000 - up from $250,000 - as part of a counteroffer to House Speaker John Boehner aimed at reaching a deal to avert the fiscal cliff, according to a source familiar with the talks.
The $2.4 trillion proposal offers an equal amount of revenue and spending cuts, meeting a dollar-for-dollar demand that Boehner has placed on the scope of a final package.
President Barack Obama proposed $1.2 trillion in new revenue, down from his previous offer of $1.4 trillion. And he offered $1.2 trillion in spending cuts, including $400 billion in entitlement savings, which is an increase of $50 billion.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 17, 2012 20:16:30 GMT -8
Thanks Gregg, very interesting. 50M iPhones in a quarter is equivalent to selling more than 6 iPhones per second. It's truly staggering, but when you hear stories like this and consider how many other people are doing this in addition to regular consumer demand you can see how quickly it can add up. The best news out of your story is that the supply seemed solid as far back as three weeks ago. This seems in line with Apple's shipping estimates, and we should get a full month of unconstrained sales at breakneck speeds, especially with China now in the mix and a bunch of other countries that just launched. I imagine Apple could be selling around a million iPhones a day right now. I forget who said it (one of Wall Street's finest), but the statement was that Apple is producing iPhone 5s at a current run rate of 15 million per month. I'm inclined to think your number is closer to actual. Just now hitting 15 million per month would leave use terribly short of 45 million for the quarter. I think they ramped up and stocked up well before the release date. I read one report where they were producing 160,000 then 200,000 phones a day very early on. Understanding that 200,000 a day is never going to get us close to 45 or 50 mil for the qtr. I would be very interested on how many they could produce per day at peak production capacity. 500,000 phones a day is a hell of a lot of phones given it does have human intervention in part of the production process. I am very skeptical of future iphone model estimates greater than 50 mil in a qtr without at least a 45 day advance ramp up.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 17, 2012 20:36:57 GMT -8
fas, that has been a hot topic for a while, at what point does Apple reach a production ceiling. The main issue is ramping fast and high and unstained demand. This was the fear after the AT&T number. The US market is saturated. The growth will come from outside the US. That is why Apple went aggressive with the roll out. That 50 mil number is probably the ceiling.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 17, 2012 20:44:48 GMT -8
I forget who said it (one of Wall Street's finest), but the statement was that Apple is producing iPhone 5s at a current run rate of 15 million per month. I'm inclined to think your number is closer to actual. Just now hitting 15 million per month would leave use terribly short of 45 million for the quarter. Don't forget the 4 and 4S.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Dec 17, 2012 20:48:01 GMT -8
Don't forget the 4 and 4S. exactly.
|
|