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Post by bribery on Dec 17, 2012 20:53:34 GMT -8
Samsung is not getting a ban in the US, damn.
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Post by chasmac on Dec 17, 2012 21:00:33 GMT -8
Did I mention I have JAN'15 1000/1030s? Ha, I have something similar. Bet you bought them for next to nothing!
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Post by fas550 on Dec 17, 2012 21:42:43 GMT -8
fas, that has been a hot topic for a while, at what point does Apple reach a production ceiling. The main issue is ramping fast and high and unstained demand. This was the fear after the AT&T number. The US market is saturated. The growth will come from outside the US. That is why Apple went aggressive with the roll out. That 50 mil number is probably the ceiling. In my mind at least all apple GROWTH will come from outside the U.S. however compared to Samsung, HTC etc our penetration into carriers is quite low overseas so we have a long way to go. As far as production, 15m phones a month = 500,000 a day or about 348 a minute on a 24hr shift. That's a tall order on a device where part of the process is human assembly while maintaining Q/A that's known for no compromise. If they want to increase production they would have to expand production which brings inherent financial risk.
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icam
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Post by icam on Dec 17, 2012 21:50:59 GMT -8
Did I mention I have JAN'15 1000/1030s? Ha, I have something similar. Bet you bought them for next to nothing! 980 1000's here - lottery ticket and willing to just sit on them. Have had limited success with some nibbles on other strikes/dates and catching some bounces (lucky) during this pullback. The violent and severe nature of the moves in this pullback has me unwilling to assume very much risk so I'm staying "uninvolved" on option plays until some sanity returns. I fight the feeling that I'm missing the deals of a lifetime in return for entry points that have higher probabilities of success. A test of patience and sanity.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2012 22:10:32 GMT -8
I would be very interested on how many they could produce per day at peak production capacity. I am very skeptical of future iphone model estimates greater than 50 mil in a qtr without at least a 45 day advance ramp up. You are limiting your thinking to what Apple (or its surrogates) can produce. Think industry production capacity. As iPhone share increases (faster than the industry average), production capacity is being given up by Apple competitors, and made available to Apple. Production capacity won't be a problem unless, and until, Apple achieves 100% market share, and that's not likely.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 22:18:23 GMT -8
Did I mention I have JAN'15 1000/1030s? Uh, wow. I really think I'm a more conservative trader than you are - I'm just a bad one, is all.
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Post by bribery on Dec 17, 2012 22:19:59 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 22:21:15 GMT -8
fas, that has been a hot topic for a while, at what point does Apple reach a production ceiling. The main issue is ramping fast and high and unstained demand. This was the fear after the AT&T number. The US market is saturated. The growth will come from outside the US. That is why Apple went aggressive with the roll out. That 50 mil number is probably the ceiling. In my mind at least all apple GROWTH will come from outside the U.S. however compared to Samsung, HTC etc our penetration into carriers is quite low overseas so we have a long way to go. As far as production, 15m phones a month = 500,000 a day or about 348 a minute on a 24hr shift. That's a tall order on a device where part of the process is human assembly while maintaining Q/A that's known for no compromise. If they want to increase production they would have to expand production which brings inherent financial risk. So the US is a maturing smartphone market - no big deal. 200M or so cellular subscribers in the US isn't the world by any means. Think of it more as a base of operations. The global smartphone market still has room to grow, as does Apple's production capacity, and the real opportunities are Asia and elsewhere. Anyway, if Tim Cook says there's still room for growth and share (and he does), I believe him.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 22:23:09 GMT -8
I'll be really, really surprised if AAPL hasn't gotten the great majority of selling "out of its system" by now.
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Post by bribery on Dec 17, 2012 22:29:38 GMT -8
I'll be really, really surprised if AAPL hasn't gotten the great majority of selling "out of its system" by now. There should be residual tax sellers who got caught up in the dive to the 500s and still have 2 weeks of trading to exit at a better level, theoretically.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 17, 2012 23:46:20 GMT -8
If that's anywhere near 25% of total panic selling this downwave , I'll be pretty surprised.
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Post by bribery on Dec 17, 2012 23:49:59 GMT -8
If that's anywhere near 25% of total panic selling this downwave , I'll be pretty surprised. I'm not saying that, just that after tax-related selling is over, BUY PRESSURE minus SELL PRESSURE will be considerably larger. ie, climbing for real.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2012 23:55:42 GMT -8
If that's anywhere near 25% of total panic selling this downwave , I'll be pretty surprised. I'm not saying that, just that after tax-related selling is over, BUY PRESSURE minus SELL PRESSURE will be considerably larger. ie, climbing for real. Exactly. You can see Buy pressure increasing in the Put/Call ratio. 15X more Calls than Puts being written for the past 24 trading days. When the last of the sellers have been shaken out, the Buyers (aka Bulls) will be in full command of AAPL's future. Data that has come my way in the last 72 hours strongly suggests that the Sellers are finished (its about time).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2012 0:39:38 GMT -8
That's why many of us here at AFB2 (not all, but many) take a more "holistic" approach to trading AAPL. Even the better technicians might say "broken stock". But that's in-a-vacuum analysis. You usually don't reach the tipping point of crashing through the floor unless you're talking broken market or broken company. I see neither at the moment. And so if you must go with a pet theory, AAPL Slingshot isn't a bad one to pick.
Anyway, we'll see how the rest of the year pans out.
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Post by bribery on Dec 18, 2012 0:59:50 GMT -8
That's why many of us here at AFB2 (not all, but many) take a more "holistic" approach to trading AAPL. Even the better technicians might say "broken stock". But that's in-a-vacuum analysis. You usually don't reach the tipping point of crashing through the floor unless you're talking broken market or broken company. I see neither at the moment. And so if you must go with a pet theory, AAPL Slingshot isn't a bad one to pick. Anyway, we'll see how the rest of the year pans out. I don't think any of us is trading based on the difference between buying and selling pressure becoming more positive. We just stated a simple FACT.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2012 1:05:03 GMT -8
Did you think I was arguing or disagreeing with you or gregg?
Because I wasn't. I was extolling this board's virtues just now using both of your posts as examples of how AFB2 contributes value and "looks beyond" the noise (though I'm an intro-level student of technicals myself).
'Course, if you were just stating simple facts, that's fine too. AFB2ers should DYODD™*** (fourth D optional), and all the rest.
***Do Your Own Due Diligence, go ask iPad about the fourth D for some laughs ;D
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Post by flyonthewall on Dec 18, 2012 1:06:37 GMT -8
On the Frankfort Exchange, AAPL is 526+.
Goooo AAPL!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2012 1:08:15 GMT -8
Super-early, but premarket lookin' pretty nice. Momo Mav is on the case! But what about the landing? And the lack of motorcycle...riding...experience? Stay tuned!
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