Don't read this if you don't like blunt talk
Jan 3, 2019 10:15:58 GMT -8
CdnPhoto, pauls, and 13 more like this
Post by Lstream on Jan 3, 2019 10:15:58 GMT -8
Hi,
I used to post here, a year or two back. Left for various reasons. I thought it would be interesting to come back and have a look, in light of recent events. Spent some time browsing, to catch up. This post is likely a hit and run, since I don't really plan on sticking around. But felt like putting some thoughts down. Not really sure why, but here goes.
On the Board
1. Really impressive on the persistence of a few posters in keeping things going. Congrats
2. I see that there are still posts with various predictions of support levels, moving averages, technical analysis and what it means, where the stock will be next week, next month, next year. I sure hope that no-one bases what they are doing on these so called forecasts or predictions. I think they are based on complete bull-shit and fantasy. Just like I thought when I was a regular here. Yesterday's news is just one more example of what the un-knowable does to this nonsense. Trying to trade based upon technicals is just another word for gambling. There are rigorous studies out there that show the fallacy of this approach. And yet, for whatever reason, there is still some belief here in the merit of this voodoo. SMH.
The Negatives re Apple - only the big ones
Probably worth knowing that I am NOT a Liberal or Anti-USA, in spite of being a Canadian. My company has substantial investments in the US, and employs some very high priced talent there. I want the US to thrive and prosper, and have a vested interest in that happening. But I hate what I am seeing from your leadership.
1. Trade War - America has an economic moron in charge. There is a lag between the sheer stupidity of tariffs, and the economic impact. We are just starting to see the impact. It could get way worse before it gets better. This is not just an Apple issue. Look at recent CAT results and how they were impacted by increased material costs. If I was a short term investor with a one to two year time frame, I would be really worried about where this is going to end up. Trump doesn't give two shits about the damage he will do. In fact, he seems to enjoy the notoriety. Unbelievable.
2. China - I see posts that say that today's price action is an over-reaction. Maybe. Maybe not. Is yesterday's downgrade just the first of many we will see about China? Lot's of investors are very likely reacting to this just being the first of many shoes to drop.
3. Anti-America backlash, and the potential Apple impact - American leadership is seemingly oblivious to the impact of alienating traditional allies and emerging economic powers like China. I don't think it is possible to understand the resentment being created in economies that are being impacted, if you don't live in these countries. Here in Canada, we have been accused of being a security risk, to justify tariffs on our steel and aluminum. All kinds of citizens are saying "f*** you" and refusing to buy US goods when there is an alternative. I can only imagine the resentment being fostered in China, where there are respectable alternatives from home-grown companies. I fear that we might be seeing a permanent hit to Apple due to this and other factors. I will be attempting to figure out Apple's overall exposure to China, to determine if I accelerate my long term plan to completely sell all my Apple holdings. Pretty damn sad when American leadership is tarnishing the brand of an amazing American company, simply by association.
The Apple Positives
This is mainly a counterattack from someone who has been in the stock since 2002, and is also in tech.
1. Apple doesn't innovate any more. I see lots of great posts calling BS on this one. I agree. Just more of the same double-standard nonsense being applied to Apple. These comments are from people that cannot or will not see what is happening under the covers in Apple devices. The iPhone X was a major leap forward in the overall experience of using a phone. FaceID was not innovative, just because it showed up in a familiar form factor? Nonsense. Expectations of something magical, in what is a hand held computer are unrealistic. We are in a world of incrementality for now, but that incrementality matters. True disruption will come when a brand new UI paradigm arrives. Which brings me to:
2. Wearables - I cannot say exactly when, but when the tech is ready, Apple has the the assets to DOMINATE this space. This is a topic that is near and dear to me, because our company is heavily involved in wearables for Enterprise use. Frankly, everything out there is no-where near good enough. Especially for consumers. NO ONE has the technical chops and assets that Apple has to completely disrupt this space. And perhaps to seriously disrupt the entire cell phone industry at the same time. Wearables have the potential to be the next serious form factor disruption. But to do this, will take extreme hardware expertise in power efficiency, heat, UI, weight, optics and so on. Combined with software optimized for such hardware. Apple is already miles ahead on some of these areas of expertise with the iPhone and Watch, and the gap is increasing. But in keeping with the "can't innovate" meme, most of the press just doesn't get what an asset this is. But they will when Apple applies this lead to wearables. Apple's disruptive capability will shine through when this happens. This is the one prediction I am comfortable making.
3. AR and VR - Kind of a waste and stunted on phones, but when wearables hit, the potential of this tech will be unleashed. I have confidence that Apple gets it. Early indications are obvious in AR kit. Wearables plus AR/VR will allow Apple to clearly differentiate again. Probably a couple of years away, but its coming.
4. Apple = Nokia??!!! My god, what nonsense. Nokia died because they stood idly by while the multi-touch UI completely disrupted and obliterated those who missed the disruption. For Apple to go the way of Nokia, we need a major disruption that forces the install base off the platform. What is it? I bet none of the geniuses spouting this crap, can answer that one.
5. Services - Still think that most are not appreciating the transformation going on here.
I think those with a short term need for liquidity from their Apple investment are going to hurt for a good length of time, since I expect we are into at least a one or two year period of "Apple sucks" being the dominant theme. Overlaid with political leadership who have zero clue, and enjoy chaos. That part is new, and I honestly can't predict how that new factor is going to play out. Still trying to decide how that changes my plans.
On the plus side, I expect Apple to be a strong returner for those who can stomach 2-3 years of possibly very difficult times. But Apple won't be alone in experiencing those times.
I used to post here, a year or two back. Left for various reasons. I thought it would be interesting to come back and have a look, in light of recent events. Spent some time browsing, to catch up. This post is likely a hit and run, since I don't really plan on sticking around. But felt like putting some thoughts down. Not really sure why, but here goes.
On the Board
1. Really impressive on the persistence of a few posters in keeping things going. Congrats
2. I see that there are still posts with various predictions of support levels, moving averages, technical analysis and what it means, where the stock will be next week, next month, next year. I sure hope that no-one bases what they are doing on these so called forecasts or predictions. I think they are based on complete bull-shit and fantasy. Just like I thought when I was a regular here. Yesterday's news is just one more example of what the un-knowable does to this nonsense. Trying to trade based upon technicals is just another word for gambling. There are rigorous studies out there that show the fallacy of this approach. And yet, for whatever reason, there is still some belief here in the merit of this voodoo. SMH.
The Negatives re Apple - only the big ones
Probably worth knowing that I am NOT a Liberal or Anti-USA, in spite of being a Canadian. My company has substantial investments in the US, and employs some very high priced talent there. I want the US to thrive and prosper, and have a vested interest in that happening. But I hate what I am seeing from your leadership.
1. Trade War - America has an economic moron in charge. There is a lag between the sheer stupidity of tariffs, and the economic impact. We are just starting to see the impact. It could get way worse before it gets better. This is not just an Apple issue. Look at recent CAT results and how they were impacted by increased material costs. If I was a short term investor with a one to two year time frame, I would be really worried about where this is going to end up. Trump doesn't give two shits about the damage he will do. In fact, he seems to enjoy the notoriety. Unbelievable.
2. China - I see posts that say that today's price action is an over-reaction. Maybe. Maybe not. Is yesterday's downgrade just the first of many we will see about China? Lot's of investors are very likely reacting to this just being the first of many shoes to drop.
3. Anti-America backlash, and the potential Apple impact - American leadership is seemingly oblivious to the impact of alienating traditional allies and emerging economic powers like China. I don't think it is possible to understand the resentment being created in economies that are being impacted, if you don't live in these countries. Here in Canada, we have been accused of being a security risk, to justify tariffs on our steel and aluminum. All kinds of citizens are saying "f*** you" and refusing to buy US goods when there is an alternative. I can only imagine the resentment being fostered in China, where there are respectable alternatives from home-grown companies. I fear that we might be seeing a permanent hit to Apple due to this and other factors. I will be attempting to figure out Apple's overall exposure to China, to determine if I accelerate my long term plan to completely sell all my Apple holdings. Pretty damn sad when American leadership is tarnishing the brand of an amazing American company, simply by association.
The Apple Positives
This is mainly a counterattack from someone who has been in the stock since 2002, and is also in tech.
1. Apple doesn't innovate any more. I see lots of great posts calling BS on this one. I agree. Just more of the same double-standard nonsense being applied to Apple. These comments are from people that cannot or will not see what is happening under the covers in Apple devices. The iPhone X was a major leap forward in the overall experience of using a phone. FaceID was not innovative, just because it showed up in a familiar form factor? Nonsense. Expectations of something magical, in what is a hand held computer are unrealistic. We are in a world of incrementality for now, but that incrementality matters. True disruption will come when a brand new UI paradigm arrives. Which brings me to:
2. Wearables - I cannot say exactly when, but when the tech is ready, Apple has the the assets to DOMINATE this space. This is a topic that is near and dear to me, because our company is heavily involved in wearables for Enterprise use. Frankly, everything out there is no-where near good enough. Especially for consumers. NO ONE has the technical chops and assets that Apple has to completely disrupt this space. And perhaps to seriously disrupt the entire cell phone industry at the same time. Wearables have the potential to be the next serious form factor disruption. But to do this, will take extreme hardware expertise in power efficiency, heat, UI, weight, optics and so on. Combined with software optimized for such hardware. Apple is already miles ahead on some of these areas of expertise with the iPhone and Watch, and the gap is increasing. But in keeping with the "can't innovate" meme, most of the press just doesn't get what an asset this is. But they will when Apple applies this lead to wearables. Apple's disruptive capability will shine through when this happens. This is the one prediction I am comfortable making.
3. AR and VR - Kind of a waste and stunted on phones, but when wearables hit, the potential of this tech will be unleashed. I have confidence that Apple gets it. Early indications are obvious in AR kit. Wearables plus AR/VR will allow Apple to clearly differentiate again. Probably a couple of years away, but its coming.
4. Apple = Nokia??!!! My god, what nonsense. Nokia died because they stood idly by while the multi-touch UI completely disrupted and obliterated those who missed the disruption. For Apple to go the way of Nokia, we need a major disruption that forces the install base off the platform. What is it? I bet none of the geniuses spouting this crap, can answer that one.
5. Services - Still think that most are not appreciating the transformation going on here.
I think those with a short term need for liquidity from their Apple investment are going to hurt for a good length of time, since I expect we are into at least a one or two year period of "Apple sucks" being the dominant theme. Overlaid with political leadership who have zero clue, and enjoy chaos. That part is new, and I honestly can't predict how that new factor is going to play out. Still trying to decide how that changes my plans.
On the plus side, I expect Apple to be a strong returner for those who can stomach 2-3 years of possibly very difficult times. But Apple won't be alone in experiencing those times.