chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 5, 2019 8:34:06 GMT -8
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Post by dmiller on Jan 5, 2019 13:10:14 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 5, 2019 15:22:10 GMT -8
Excellent, dmiller! Cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 5, 2019 18:12:44 GMT -8
IS BIG BROTHER? IS this our dystopian future? Who ARE THESE LEMMINGS? Can you imagine how much this ad cost? youtu.be/d8LJXcQhD0k
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jan 5, 2019 22:04:38 GMT -8
IS BIG BROTHER? IS this our dystopian future? Who ARE THESE LEMMINGS? Can you imagine how much this ad cost? youtu.be/d8LJXcQhD0kHaving a rough day, Artman? Take a deep breath, things are going to be OK. Look at the long term. 1 billion Apple users 200 million upgrade each year. Few leave for Android. 5G is already arriving and should be all we hear about in 2 years. I personally expect massive upgrades during this cycle. Maybe double the normal 200 million per year. This current hiccup is a gift for anyone with powder. I am thinking about synthetic stock, it looks that good. So relax, sit back and get richer. I personally thought the ad was almost as good as the 1984 ad, funny you should mention dystopia. In a world where there are still too many people who prefer beige and safety, I loved the appeal to abandon the hum drum and embrace the world of color. Here's how I see it. Life brings change. Change causes fear. There are people who react to it by trying to stop change. You stop change by imposing order. Then there are people who embrace change, realizing that they can adapt and change brings opportunity and progress. Steve was loved because he represented the latter. The ad spoke to that fundamental difference in world views. It was an effective reminder that we do not have to be afraid of change. This conflict is nothing new. It has been going on for at least 5000 years.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 5, 2019 22:46:00 GMT -8
IS BIG BROTHER? IS this our dystopian future? Who ARE THESE LEMMINGS? Can you imagine how much this ad cost? youtu.be/d8LJXcQhD0kHaving a rough day, Artman? Take a deep breath, things are going to be OK. Look at the long term. 1 billion Apple users 200 million upgrade each year. Few leave for Android. 5G is already arriving and should be all we hear about in 2 years. I personally expect massive upgrades during this cycle. Maybe double the normal 200 million per year. This current hiccup is a gift for anyone with powder. I am thinking about synthetic stock, it looks that good. So relax, sit back and get richer. I personally thought the ad was almost as good as the 1984 ad, funny you should mention dystopia. In a world where there are still too many people who prefer beige and safety, I loved the appeal to abandon the hum drum and embrace the world of color. Here's how I see it. Life brings change. Change causes fear. There are people who react to it by trying to stop change. You stop change by imposing order. Then there are people who embrace change, realizing that they can adapt and change brings opportunity and progress. Steve was loved because he represented the latter. The ad spoke to that fundamental difference in world views. It was an effective reminder that we do not have to be afraid of change. This conflict is nothing new. It has been going on for at least 5000 years. Judging from your two, very different, reactions and interpretations, perhaps this may be considered Apple's Rorschach Video™.
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macster
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Post by macster on Jan 6, 2019 10:13:12 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jan 6, 2019 10:17:28 GMT -8
Let’s put things in perspective based on facts. Apple guided almost $9 billion less on the top end before giving us the letter to restate earnings. I and many bulls had anticipated $93 billion. This has not happened in 17 years. The stock had dropped 15% last January when it missed WS expectations by a mere 2 million units across the globe. A drop of about 3.5 million units in one country during a period of flattening sales is a very big deal. This is not simply a slowdown of growth in a booming market. With the smart phone market reaching saturation, and TC and company touting the opportunities in the emerging markets while increasing ASAP by $250 over 3 years, this letter is the canary in the coal mine. 62% of sales are outside the US. So I think that DMiller spends lots of words to defend and dismiss the obvious. WS and media have every reason to be concerned. When the stock drops 10% with 91 million shares trade in one day after already dropping another 32% in 3 months, it sends a strong message. No one should ignore this a simply claim that the pundits are yelling fire in a theater. WS may be accused and blamed for undervaluing Apple’s potential for years but the facts speak for themselves. They will punish this company quickly and the media is not going to ignore these facts. Let’s see how he responds in 10 months when Apple reports a drop in revenue and no longer brags about record sales of iPhones in all the other developed markets or growth in China. I am now a veteran of this company and I have stayed with them and the stock while quite a few here left demoralized after the last two major corrections. We are now at the beginning of another correction and I think this one will last longer then most.
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Post by sponge on Jan 6, 2019 10:31:31 GMT -8
Door opening wider means they will steal less and drop their tariffs? I am hoping to be in Taiwan and China in the next 4 months. I want to see for myself what is happening there. I will be dealing with the folks that fly and manage jets of the Chinese billionaires who own the factories. The corporate jet market is a good indicator of where things are going in the world economy. But Taiwan and China are critical for the US economy and the world.
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Ted
fire starter
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Post by Ted on Jan 6, 2019 10:40:31 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Jan 6, 2019 12:00:17 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Jan 6, 2019 13:48:48 GMT -8
I have been trying to post a graph of this data for an hour and cannot figure out what I am doing wrong, so I am just going to post the data and let you copy and paste it into your favorite graphing program
The data is the cumulative number of China Mobile 4G subscribers in thousands. The plot should clearly show a logistic curve. I think this is important because we are in the last phase of the "S-curve" and can see the clear drop off in the number of new subscribers. This is absolutely normal (pun intended). Another way to look at this data is to look at the difference between consecutive months. While this would look a little noisier, it should show a normal distribution where we are out on one of the tails. The point of this is that CM at least has converted almost all of their customers from 3G to 4G now, hence the surge of people upgrading from feature phones to smart phones has almost ended. In all the talks about Apple's performance in China, I don't often see this mentioned.
The bad news then is that it will indeed be harder to grow in the near term, but the good news is that there is a similar curve for 5G just waiting down the road. Of course, Apple has to execute in bringing their 5G phones to market and a dramatic shift in speed could be as catastrophic for Apple as 4G was to the Blackberry, but that seems to me to be a long shot that only the most pessimistic Apple bear would take.
Mar-14 2,793 Apr-14 4,798 May-14 8,109 Jun-14 13,943 Jul-14 20,437 Aug-14 29,568 Sep-14 40,949 Oct-14 54,450 Nov-14 71,230 Dec-14 90,064 Jan-15 106,797 Feb-15 123,382 Mar-15 143,078 Apr-15 153,147 May-15 170,335 Jun-15 189,662 Jul-15 208,814 Aug-15 229,265 Sep-15 247,617 Oct-15 267,310 Nov-15 287,323 Dec-15 312,282 Jan-16 335,563 Feb-16 360,366 Mar-16 376,514 Apr-16 391,418 May-16 409,316 Jun-16 428,541 Jul-16 448,768 Aug-16 466,637 Sep-16 480,691 Oct-16 497,327 Nov-16 509,831 Dec-16 535,036 Jan-17 552,208 Feb-17 558,603 Mar-17 568,074 Apr-17 573,331 May-17 583,232 Jun-17 593,651 Jul-17 605,973 Aug-17 616,825 Sep-17 621,757 Oct-17 628,668 Nov-17 633,891 Dec-17 649,507 Jan-18 654,749 Feb-18 661,829 Mar-18 671,745 Apr-18 669,318 May-18 671,823 Jun-18 676,829 Jul-18 683,327 Aug-18 689,755 Sep-18 695,286 Oct-18 700,369 Nov-18 704,501
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Post by nwjade on Jan 6, 2019 15:11:16 GMT -8
I have been trying to post a graph of this data for an hour and cannot figure out what I am doing wrong, so I am just going to post the data and let you copy and paste it into your favorite graphing program The data is the cumulative number of China Mobile 4G subscribers in thousands. The plot should clearly show a logistic curve. I think this is important because we are in the last phase of the "S-curve" and can see the clear drop off in the number of new subscribers. This is absolutely normal (pun intended). Another way to look at this data is to look at the difference between consecutive months. While this would look a little noisier, it should show a normal distribution where we are out on one of the tails. The point of this is that CM at least has converted almost all of their customers from 3G to 4G now, hence the surge of people upgrading from feature phones to smart phones has almost ended. In all the talks about Apple's performance in China, I don't often see this mentioned. The bad news then is that it will indeed be harder to grow in the near term, but the good news is that there is a similar curve for 5G just waiting down the road. Of course, Apple has to execute in bringing their 5G phones to market and a dramatic shift in speed could be as catastrophic for Apple as 4G was to the Blackberry, but that seems to me to be a long shot that only the most pessimistic Apple bear would take. Mar-14 2,793 Apr-14 4,798 May-14 8,109 Jun-14 13,943 Jul-14 20,437 Aug-14 29,568 Sep-14 40,949 Oct-14 54,450 Nov-14 71,230 Dec-14 90,064 Jan-15 106,797 Feb-15 123,382 Mar-15 143,078 Apr-15 153,147 May-15 170,335 Jun-15 189,662 Jul-15 208,814 Aug-15 229,265 Sep-15 247,617 Oct-15 267,310 Nov-15 287,323 Dec-15 312,282 Jan-16 335,563 Feb-16 360,366 Mar-16 376,514 Apr-16 391,418 May-16 409,316 Jun-16 428,541 Jul-16 448,768 Aug-16 466,637 Sep-16 480,691 Oct-16 497,327 Nov-16 509,831 Dec-16 535,036 Jan-17 552,208 Feb-17 558,603 Mar-17 568,074 Apr-17 573,331 May-17 583,232 Jun-17 593,651 Jul-17 605,973 Aug-17 616,825 Sep-17 621,757 Oct-17 628,668 Nov-17 633,891 Dec-17 649,507 Jan-18 654,749 Feb-18 661,829 Mar-18 671,745 Apr-18 669,318 May-18 671,823 Jun-18 676,829 Jul-18 683,327 Aug-18 689,755 Sep-18 695,286 Oct-18 700,369 Nov-18 704,501 Curious what your feeling is if Apple doesn't come to market in 2019 with a 5G model in their lineup as is generally reported. Is it a big deal to wait until 2020 or should they accelerate the plan by settling with Qualcomm and put a 5G model in the 2019 lineup? I haven't a clue myself if it matters but there will be marketing hype by the other makers and the press that they have 5G models and Apple doesn't.
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Post by sponge on Jan 6, 2019 15:47:48 GMT -8
I say they stick to their plan and wait until 2020. Losing minimal market share for 12 months is not the end of the world. They won’t get many defections.
Intel just better come up with a good alternative radio over Qualcomm
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 6, 2019 16:19:22 GMT -8
Futures up at the moment .... hoping sanity will return.
5G will rollout in ‘19 but it’s my understanding it will be in fairly limited markets, I would think it does give them some time to work out a soloutuon other than Qualcomm, then again maybe Qualcomm and Apple can come to some kind of agreement.
Cheers to the longs
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Post by Lstream on Jan 6, 2019 18:00:53 GMT -8
I don’t think I like waiting until 2020. 5G is such a game changer, that it could make a 2019 phone quasi-obsolete quick. Meaning that some quantity of possible buyers will wait until 2020, when they might otherwise buy in 2019. Even though practically, 5G deployment would be quite thin. I guess the question is how many potential buyer are tech savvy enough to consider waiting. In my case, it will very likely mean I keep my X for an extra year, meaning a three year upgrade gap.
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Post by nagrani on Jan 6, 2019 19:59:24 GMT -8
Hi guys. Remember me? Just thought I’d come back any say I purchased several million dollars worth of leaps on Friday. Bought Jan 2020s. ITM. Trade em well.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 6, 2019 21:11:29 GMT -8
Interesting to read the comments on Apple these days, disappointing to see how Apple has gone from the rouge "think different" underdog brand to .... "The Man."
LOTS of hate out there .... maybe some of it earned with the pricing strategy, I still think other companies stuff looks awful. Many comments regarding iTunes coming to Samsung TV's, I don't have a Samsung TV in the house but we have Sony and LG and the operating system sucks on both of them. I went an put Apple TV's on both and am much happier, even turned off all of the updates and other "features" that those smart tv's have. I wish Apple would have pushed Apple TV much harder early in the game as well as opened it up to the app store, in a sense it almost seems like Apple is giving up on Apple TV or maybe they figured the recurring revenue is the real driver ... so how much longer before iOS is available on a google phone?
Seems like that is the next logical step ..... and it may actually be a good one. I'm going to trust the execs in Cupertino have a grip on this ....
Cheers to the longs
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 6, 2019 21:11:31 GMT -8
Hi guys. Remember me? Just thought I’d come back any say I purchased several million dollars worth of leaps on Friday. Bought Jan 2020s. ITM. Trade em well. Nice!
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