Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Jan 8, 2019 3:20:44 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 8, 2019 5:45:32 GMT -8
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Jan 8, 2019 5:58:07 GMT -8
That PED twitter thread is absolute gold.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 8, 2019 7:31:08 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jan 8, 2019 8:39:40 GMT -8
The strategery article is well written and makes excellent points.
I think TC and company is either misreading iPhone demand or is trying avoid the elephant in the room that we have hit a serious rough patch in growth and making up for it with price increases.
My price target for Jan 2020 is 144.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 8, 2019 8:46:25 GMT -8
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jan 8, 2019 9:02:33 GMT -8
The strategery article is well written and makes excellent points. I think TC and company is either misreading iPhone demand or is trying avoid the elephant in the room that we have hit a serious rough patch in growth and making up for it with price increases. My price target for Jan 2020 is 144.
Hi - long-time lurker here. That's a pretty bearish prediction, especially given that AAPL is currently near $150.
I think I saw a bearish analyst (Goldman Sachs?) with a similar PT, $140 I believe? So what’s your strategy? Do you sell here and park money elsewhere while you wait for pullback?
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Post by sponge on Jan 8, 2019 9:39:51 GMT -8
The strategery article is well written and makes excellent points. I think TC and company is either misreading iPhone demand or is trying avoid the elephant in the room that we have hit a serious rough patch in growth and making up for it with price increases. My price target for Jan 2020 is 144. Hi - long-time lurker here. That's a pretty bearish prediction, especially given that AAPL is currently near $150.
I think I saw a bearish analyst (Goldman Sachs?) with a similar PT, $140 I believe? So what’s your strategy? Do you sell here and park money elsewhere while you wait for pullback?
For me I am stuck since I had bought back at 196. Will try to come up with cash this summer. I base my target on revenue projections. Apple reported 5% drop in revenue for Q1. I see that continuing thru the rest of the year. So we started with 157 and if we a 8% drop this FY19 the stock should reflect that. I have seen it before. We dropped 10% last week. Yes we have recovered by I think this recovery is short lived. We may go to 130 as early as next week.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 8, 2019 10:28:36 GMT -8
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jan 8, 2019 10:42:52 GMT -8
For me I am stuck since I had bought back at 196. Will try to come up with cash this summer. I base my target on revenue projections. Apple reported 5% drop in revenue for Q1. I see that continuing thru the rest of the year. So we started with 157 and if we a 8% drop this FY19 the stock should reflect that. I have seen it before. We dropped 10% last week. Yes we have recovered by I think this recovery is short lived. We may go to 130 as early as next week. Ok, well I hope you're wrong lol. I'm also out of cash, wanted to sell some in late summer, but got greedy.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Jan 8, 2019 10:46:27 GMT -8
Hi, thanks for the heads-up; this is good to hear. I think Tim wants to do it but is cautious and might leave some commentary until the earnings call itself.... Was it 2014 that they did $14B in buybacks in just 2 weeks and he went with an interview to WSJ? aggressive and opportunistic... but I think they might be careful with it now, so it does not appear like stock manipulation... cautious optimism thus far, then provide more color on earnings call? also a good chance to buy cheaper... i hope they've been buying!
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 8, 2019 10:50:51 GMT -8
Hi, thanks for the heads-up; this is good to hear. I think Tim wants to do it but is cautious and might leave some commentary until the earnings call itself.... Was it 2014 that they did $14B in buybacks in just 2 weeks and he went with an interview to WSJ? aggressive and opportunistic... but I think they might be careful with it now, so it does not appear like stock manipulation... cautious optimism thus far, then provide more color on earnings call? also a good chance to buy cheaper... i hope they've been buying!
He's just stating the facts as he did in that letter. Unfortunately, many on WS either don't get the entire picture or more likely use the headline to further their own narrative. You would think Apple is going to be in bankruptcy court soon based on the sheer number of negative media reports ..... perspective is a good thing. Cheers to the longs.
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Post by macprof on Jan 8, 2019 11:12:28 GMT -8
He's just stating the facts as he did in that letter. Unfortunately, many on WS either don't get the entire picture or more likely use the headline to further their own narrative. You would think Apple is going to be in bankruptcy court soon based on the sheer number of negative media reports ..... perspective is a good thing. Totally agree. Nicely put.
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Post by sponge on Jan 8, 2019 12:16:02 GMT -8
TC added nothing that most of us long term bulls did not already know about Apple. Their future is great.
What he did not address is the facts. Smartphone growth is declining, China economy is not going to suddenly improve in three months, they announced iPhone decline with no guidance if it is short lived, and services is great but it pales in comparison to profits from iPhone.
iPhone pricing is a big factor in China and the rest of the world. Sales had flatten a year ago and if it was not for the price increase we would be negative in earnings for 12 months.
I don’t listen to much of the negative news but simply look at how WS reacts to earnings and announcements from Apple. The fact is that the stock is beaten down and WS is concerned about the future. His interview did little in my view eliminate concerns. The stock is catching up with what the market did yesterday which has more to do with China talks.
I think we will be in a bad shape for a good 16 months.
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Post by sponge on Jan 8, 2019 12:22:36 GMT -8
I can see Apple addressing the pricing and lower iPhone growth by releasing a cheaper version of the 8 in the Fall. They won’t lower prices to the existing models but just add that $400 option like they did in March 2016.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 8, 2019 12:41:24 GMT -8
The strategery article is well written and makes excellent points. I think TC and company is either misreading iPhone demand or is trying avoid the elephant in the room that we have hit a serious rough patch in growth and making up for it with price increases. My price target for Jan 2020 is 144. Hi - long-time lurker here. That's a pretty bearish prediction, especially given that AAPL is currently near $150. I think I saw a bearish analyst (Goldman Sachs?) with a similar PT, $140 I believe? So what’s your strategy? Do you sell here and park money elsewhere while you wait for pullback? Hi walterwhite - long-time AAPL Long here. My wife and I have been long AAPL for 18+ years and, regardless of the ups and downs of the share price, sleep very well at night. That would definitely *not* be possible if we weren't convinced that Apple's CEO, BOD and management team knew more about running Apple's business than we do.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 8, 2019 13:03:05 GMT -8
This was obviously filmed in the Apple Park Visitor Center, directly across from Apple Park. Any other time, Tim Cook would be surrounded by Apple employees/customers when he entered an Apple Store so they must have instructed employees and customers alike to "act natural". Perhaps Tim didn't want any photos/video of the Apple Park offices and working spaces.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 8, 2019 13:25:14 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 8, 2019 13:32:35 GMT -8
You beat me by *seconds*. I was just about to post this long list of Seeking Alpha Apple articles from just the last 5 days.
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Post by Lstream on Jan 8, 2019 13:41:50 GMT -8
I am currently assessing the likelihood of finding “particularly good” there. I can either spend time doing that or see if Scarlett Johansen wants to hook up. Think I have better odds with Scarlett.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 8, 2019 13:52:20 GMT -8
Say hi to Scarlett for us.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Jan 8, 2019 16:53:13 GMT -8
Enjoyed TC’s interview with Jim Cramer on Mad Money tonight. A few of my personal thoughts: 1) I agree wholeheartedly with Tim; Wall Street doesn’t get Apple’s story, they never have. I stay invested for the long term under the guise that one day they will. The multiple given to Apple is ridiculous. 2) I continue to think people are discounting the future of the services business. Eventually it’ll be too big to ignore. I will build my position between now and then to profit from Wall Street’s misunderstanding. 3) Agree w/ Tim’s comments about upgrades. It’s not about the 90 day earnings cycle! If people put off upgrading their phone for a year or two, no big deal! The point is when they upgrade, they will upgrade to a new iPhone; not some other brand. These are customers for life.
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Post by BillH on Jan 8, 2019 18:02:30 GMT -8
I am currently assessing the likelihood of finding “particularly good” there. I can either spend time doing that or see if Scarlett Johansen wants to hook up. Think I have better odds with Scarlett. In the immortal words of Brian Wilson..., You only get to heaven if you chase your dreams Let the paparazzi flash, let the tabloid scream I've been around too long to care what anyone says I'm hungry and I'm doing lunch with Cameron Diaz
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