|
Post by sponge on Jan 11, 2019 21:06:16 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Jan 11, 2019 22:52:40 GMT -8
More proof that any idiot can have an opinion. Jesus - what trash from an incompetent. He should stick to law, where he might have some actual expertise.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Jan 12, 2019 7:30:49 GMT -8
Tim cook is a failure at operations?!?! Are you f*cking kidding me? Steve Jobs must be running around smashing things in heaven in response to that article, both because of its idiocy and because of what it says about his judgment in making Tim his successor. One "disappointing" quarter (still likely to be a company quarterly revenue record) in the face of world-wide economic and political chaos outweighs 13 years of operational management that made a small computer company into a world-wide juggernaut, followed by six years as CEO of incredible success leading to Apple becoming the most valuable company in the world? Someone in this equation is a moron, and it ain't Tim.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 12, 2019 9:19:10 GMT -8
Well that got the discussion going.
Yes there are many amazing accomplishments that Apple has achieved in the last 7 years.
But we are talking about manufacturing and hardware development. The article points out two big issues. Delays in product upgrades and putting all of your manufacturing of the iPhone in a country that can turn on you instantly.
A drop of 20% in iPhone sales in 1 month in China is a big deal. We can blame it on their economy, tariff issues, or pricing, but the fact remains that it is a significant drop.
Like I have said before, this is only the beginning. If the tariff wars get worse Apple will suffer, if their economy drops further Apple will suffer, if Apple does not lower its prices soon on the iPhone, sales will drop further in the rest of the world. And if the US and European economies start to soften, then we are in real trouble.
The margins on the iPhone are insane. Our gross margin which is incredible compared to the industry is high because of the iPhone. It could still be high if we balance how money is spent on other things.
Everyone is focusing on services and eco system. A significant drop in iPHone sales will mute that 20% growth. Last Q showed that and even MS admitted that fact.
I will save this thread , because in 18 months, you will hear loudly that TC has to go.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 12, 2019 10:00:20 GMT -8
Here is some interesting data. www.profitconfidential.com/apple-iphone-sales-journey-iphone-years/I always believed that the iPhone will start to act like the PC. Sales will grow as long as the smart phone adoption was growing. So moving forward we will go thru waves. I think by middle of 2020 we will see a drop of at least 15% in units. TC and company will blame the long upgrade cycle or the economy. However if you notice the 8% units drop in 2016 which resulted in 12% drop in sales, I think price was a factor. Apple increased the iPhone price by $100 with the 6. People initially upgraded and switched, but the second year it hit a fast wall. Same thing is happening now. The X was a big hit, but now people can’t justify the XS and XS+ prices upgrade at the same rate. This time I believe the drop in sales this year will speed up in the FY 2020. The iPhones are good enough to use for 3-4 years. The issue that will arise is that the delayed growth in Services compared to overal iOS growth, will slow down dramatically. Yes the overall market share is growing and will continue to grow, but I think the strong world wid economy was a factor behind services growth in the last 3 years. If it slows like I expect, people will be less likely to buy apps and music subscriptions. Apple will have to lower the prices of all iOS devices in order to keep service and other products revenues from dropping. The mistake TC made was increasing prices too high. I have written before about how our family did not upgrade and wont’ next year. It was costing us about $1200 more a year. Apple is trying to make its iPHone a luxury brand, but as long as I see teenagers and minimum wage workers with the X and $159 AirPods, then it is no longer considered a luxury. Therefore Apple will be just another hardware company that gets impacted by competition and economies. I am still an Apple fan and believe their best days are ahead of it. They make the best products in the world, but the next two years will be full of negative news. The stock will suffer greatly.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Jan 12, 2019 11:11:52 GMT -8
The stock will suffer greatly. The stock has always suffered greatly. Even at its ATH, the PE has been pitiful compared to its FANG brethren. Fortunately, we are at a point where the dividends are as meaningful to us as the stock price, which even at the current ridiculous level is a very healthy multiple of our average price per share.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 12, 2019 11:22:46 GMT -8
For me the 9 p/e is the bottom.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Jan 12, 2019 11:25:23 GMT -8
On a more technical level...
Our iMac is of course our central music repository. It broadcasts to two speaker systems, one in the living room and one in the family room. The living room is routed through an Airport Express into a receiver and then to the speakers; the family room is similar, except it is routed through an Apple TV, because that is the TV room. Since the latest upgrade, volume changes are no longer reflected through the Airport Express, but still work fine through the Apple TV. I assume that it is likely due to the termination of the Airport Express line, but I haven't seen any announcement to confirm that. Before I take trip to the Apple store to query a Genius, I wondered if anyone here has seen any information that might be relevant.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jan 12, 2019 11:26:40 GMT -8
Tim cook is a failure at operations?!?! Are you f*cking kidding me? Steve Jobs must be running around smashing things in heaven in response to that article, both because of its idiocy and because of what it says about his judgment in making Tim his successor. One "disappointing" quarter (still likely to be a company quarterly revenue record) in the face of world-wide economic and political chaos outweighs 13 years of operational management that made a small computer company into a world-wide juggernaut, followed by six years as CEO of incredible success leading to Apple becoming the most valuable company in the world? Someone in this equation is a moron, and it ain't Tim. Come on, chinacat. Quit beating around the bush...tell us what you really think about the story and its author.
|
|
|
Post by macoz on Jan 12, 2019 13:08:30 GMT -8
Please enlighten me. What has manufacturing in one country got to do with the drop in sales in that country. Where is the correlation.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 12, 2019 15:26:38 GMT -8
Please enlighten me. What has manufacturing in one country got to do with the drop in sales in that country. Where is the correlation. China has made life significantly easier to expand sales by having Apple establish manufacturing there. So they made a deal with the devil. The devil now is promoting its own brands and Apple is at great risk for further losses. Apple will not admit that China has not targeted them.
|
|
|
Post by nwjade on Jan 12, 2019 17:02:58 GMT -8
I am still an Apple fan and believe their best days are ahead of it. They make the best products in the world, but the next two years will be full of negative news. The stock will suffer greatly. I'm puzzled and this isn't meant as an attack. Why don't you just sell, buy another company and in 2 years or when things look brighter for Apple buy back in?
Not sure what that other company would be to safely replace Apple in the interim with but a lot of other companies have bounced nicely since the December lows.
I'm not liking the position we're in now either and have thought about it.
It all boils down to each individuals situation.
I've been fully invested in Apple since 2006, retired, using the dividend + social security to live on, have been though the ups and downs, don't need to raise capital by selling shares and have decided to wait this out however long it takes.
I've weighed the near term alternatives of a lateral move to another stock (not comfortable with which one do I pick, as soon as I did that Apple would soar and the other stock would tank) buying protective puts (too expensive) going to cash (market timing is difficult, for me anyway and if I didn't sell the wedding at 233 I'm sure not doing to sell the funeral at 152), which way will Apple stock go February 1st is unknown, it could even go up with a "that wasn't as bad as excepted report and guide" a trade deal could be reached, Apple could announce initiatives that are material and so on.
It's going to take time for sure for Apple to recover and reach new highs. It could take a year, two years, 5 years who knows...
I'm pretty safe in thinking one thing at least, Apple isn't going out of business which I know you're not saying.
End of ramble
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 12, 2019 18:20:44 GMT -8
I do have some cash ready for the drop this summer.
The problem is that the stock can stay well under 140 until middle of 2020.
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on Jan 13, 2019 6:19:07 GMT -8
I am still an Apple fan and believe their best days are ahead of it. They make the best products in the world, but the next two years will be full of negative news. The stock will suffer greatly. I'm puzzled and this isn't meant as an attack. Why don't you just sell, buy another company and in 2 years or when things look brighter for Apple buy back in? Not sure what that other company would be to safely replace Apple in the interim with but a lot of other companies have bounced nicely since the December lows.
I'm not liking the position we're in now either and have thought about it.
It all boils down to each individuals situation.
I've been fully invested in Apple since 2006, retired, using the dividend + social security to live on, have been though the ups and downs, don't need to raise capital by selling shares and have decided to wait this out however long it takes.
I've weighed the near term alternatives of a lateral move to another stock (not comfortable with which one do I pick, as soon as I did that Apple would soar and the other stock would tank) buying protective puts (too expensive) going to cash (market timing is difficult, for me anyway and if I didn't sell the wedding at 233 I'm sure not doing to sell the funeral at 152), which way will Apple stock go February 1st is unknown, it could even go up with a "that wasn't as bad as excepted report and guide" a trade deal could be reached, Apple could announce initiatives that are material and so on.
It's going to take time for sure for Apple to recover and reach new highs. It could take a year, two years, 5 years who knows...
I'm pretty safe in thinking one thing at least, Apple isn't going out of business which I know you're not saying. End of ramble If you never plan to sell, you might consider selling call LEAPS two years out and rolling them every year. Because you would always have at least a year of time value folded into the option price, it would unlikely that they would be called away, regardless of what happens to the stock price. The spread on rolling them would yield about $7 per share each year. When Apple recovers, the value of the options will rise due to the change in the intrinsic value. This will generate an annual paper loss that will offset the income from the sale of the calls, making the gains tax free. This can increase your annual income per share from $3 to $10. Of course, the downside is that you give up future growth. This can be significant. This is not a strategy to get rich, it is one to maximize your income. An advantage is that when the stock drops, as it has, the value of the calls drops as well. This can give you a chance to buy the calls back and cushion the impact to your portfolio. It can be hard to watch the stock climb and know that your gains are capped, I think that is why most people do not do this, but if you are clear in your investing goals and are more concerned with your retirement income than you are with your net worth, this seems to work. Critique of this approach is certainly welcomed
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
|
Post by Dave on Jan 13, 2019 8:51:26 GMT -8
A great deal has been written through the years about China and it's unfair trade practices and theft of intellectual properties. The bottom line is that you are dealing with a Communist nation that hasn't any problem with murdering its own citizens to retain/expand its hold on power. It is insanity.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Jan 13, 2019 9:52:51 GMT -8
Some interesting historical perspective. During the last major correction the stock dropped 61% from the high of Oct 2007 to the Low of Jan 2009. During that period the revenue was growing 31%. It was also a period where we did not go up from lows of the summer to the winter.
So the question remains in how low can we go?
If Apple can keep eps flat, a Low p/e of 9 would put us in the 110 range. With the cash available we should not drop as much as 2009. However if sales drop significantly by January 2020, then 90 range is not out of the question.
Keep in mind the p/e will drop simply because the overall market will drop as well.
The spy puts for June indicate a possible 29% drop from today’s close of 259. That would put aapl at 108.
Anything beyond that is very hard to see right now.
With housing sales down 19% it will put pressure on gdp growth for the rest of the year. Therefore the spy will play a more important role in didcating where aapl goes more then China.
|
|
|
Post by nwjade on Jan 13, 2019 10:48:16 GMT -8
I'm puzzled and this isn't meant as an attack. Why don't you just sell, buy another company and in 2 years or when things look brighter for Apple buy back in? Not sure what that other company would be to safely replace Apple in the interim with but a lot of other companies have bounced nicely since the December lows.
I'm not liking the position we're in now either and have thought about it.
It all boils down to each individuals situation.
I've been fully invested in Apple since 2006, retired, using the dividend + social security to live on, have been though the ups and downs, don't need to raise capital by selling shares and have decided to wait this out however long it takes.
I've weighed the near term alternatives of a lateral move to another stock (not comfortable with which one do I pick, as soon as I did that Apple would soar and the other stock would tank) buying protective puts (too expensive) going to cash (market timing is difficult, for me anyway and if I didn't sell the wedding at 233 I'm sure not doing to sell the funeral at 152), which way will Apple stock go February 1st is unknown, it could even go up with a "that wasn't as bad as excepted report and guide" a trade deal could be reached, Apple could announce initiatives that are material and so on.
It's going to take time for sure for Apple to recover and reach new highs. It could take a year, two years, 5 years who knows...
I'm pretty safe in thinking one thing at least, Apple isn't going out of business which I know you're not saying. End of ramble If you never plan to sell, you might consider selling call LEAPS two years out and rolling them every year. Because you would always have at least a year of time value folded into the option price, it would unlikely that they would be called away, regardless of what happens to the stock price. The spread on rolling them would yield about $7 per share each year. When Apple recovers, the value of the options will rise due to the change in the intrinsic value. This will generate an annual paper loss that will offset the income from the sale of the calls, making the gains tax free. This can increase your annual income per share from $3 to $10. Of course, the downside is that you give up future growth. This can be significant. This is not a strategy to get rich, it is one to maximize your income. An advantage is that when the stock drops, as it has, the value of the calls drops as well. This can give you a chance to buy the calls back and cushion the impact to your portfolio. It can be hard to watch the stock climb and know that your gains are capped, I think that is why most people do not do this, but if you are clear in your investing goals and are more concerned with your retirement income than you are with your net worth, this seems to work. Critique of this approach is certainly welcomed Thanks for the thoughtful reply. Introducing an options strategy like you outlined is beyond my comfort level. I'm happy with my current income level.
|
|