chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Jan 26, 2019 8:16:45 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Jan 26, 2019 10:45:46 GMT -8
I agree with the Forbes article by Chuck Jones. My numbers are much more bearish than his. If we look historically at a weak 2nd quarter we dropped 32% from Q1. I am modeling a 36% drop since there are two factors to consider. The China market won't suddenly recover. There is more pain ahead. The XR is touted as the best selling phone by Apple since day one. The challenge is that unless we knew the breakdown of units, overall sales could still be significantly below the best selling model of last year the X. So if ASP is about $250 less, Apple would have to sell a boatload of XS and XS+ to make up the difference. This means we could have decent iPhone sell thru numbers even if drop 7% in overall sales but it would result in a much bigger decrease in revenue. Thus Apple chose to no longer give us those unit numbers. Everyone would be asking why we dropped ASP so much.
As far as the stock, it is hard to tell. The selloff this week never took place. The market lifted all stocks. If guidance is as low as I am modeling, then I think we should be ready to see 135 by March. What would take us down would be an overall market correction more than Apple numbers.
Trump showed his weak hand yesterday. The gov shutdown is not impacting the market. Don't think he will shut it down in three weeks. The battle with the courts may prove volatile if he chooses the National Emergency route. However, this overall battle shows he will cave when pushed against the wall. So I think chances are he will give in with the Chinese and approve a water down agreement and call it amazing. If that happens I think we could see the stock rebound into the 180s. There is a big if.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 27, 2019 6:01:27 GMT -8
From the Forbes article...
Expect the iPhone is doomed talk to ramp up wildly if March quarter guidance is under expectations.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Jan 27, 2019 17:00:33 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 27, 2019 21:08:17 GMT -8
Hello old AFB2 friends I guess I'm now gonna try for 24 (6 straight years) of Apple quarterly earnings previews, FWIW. I think this makes 23 consecutive. Direct link apple.news/AfpAWF3KTRaSMOaUY52H4-w
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