Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 31, 2019 3:18:16 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 31, 2019 3:31:12 GMT -8
Backup Needed
I'll be traveling for most of March and will be unable to start the thread. Truth is we should have a backup or two anyway to start threads anyway. Most mornings it takes less than 15 minutes. Mornings when I spend more time are usually because I got absorbed in something interesting.
Please PM me if you might be available.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 31, 2019 6:37:06 GMT -8
I suspected we might pull back a bit at some point. Might sound like heresy, but I'd rather fill the gap now...
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 31, 2019 6:39:13 GMT -8
The Chinese can cause more pain to Trump then Nancy and a bunch of gov employees who got to have either paid stay home vacations or a simple delay in getting checks for average of $9000 a month that most private sector folks would die for. Thank you for confirming every negative thought I have ever had about you.
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Post by lulli on Jan 31, 2019 7:15:17 GMT -8
The Chinese can cause more pain to Trump then Nancy and a bunch of gov employees who got to have either paid stay home vacations or a simple delay in getting checks for average of $9000 a month that most private sector folks would die for. Thank you for confirming every negative thought I have ever had about you. And in the same thread he also said "I still think $93 is possible in 12 months" just after saying that he was also "seeing" 142, 174 or, 184, or whatever.
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Jan 31, 2019 7:22:22 GMT -8
The Chinese can cause more pain to Trump then Nancy and a bunch of gov employees who got to have either paid stay home vacations or a simple delay in getting checks for average of $9000 a month that most private sector folks would die for. Thank you for confirming every negative thought I have ever had about you. I know nothing about Nancy Pelosi's politics, however, (FWIW) I think that the Nancy Pelosi of 20-50 years ago was like SUPER HOT!
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 31, 2019 7:50:35 GMT -8
The Chinese can cause more pain to Trump then Nancy and a bunch of gov employees who got to have either paid stay home vacations or a simple delay in getting checks for average of $9000 a month that most private sector folks would die for. Thank you for confirming every negative thought I have ever had about you. That may be a little harsh, chinacat. After all, it appears that some of those $9000/month folks are taking advantage of their paid vacations to *also* get free food from their local food pantry. Damn moochers. /s Federal employees turn to food pantries during government shutdown: 'After a while you have to let that pride go'As federal employees brace for a second missed paycheck on Friday, many find themselves in the unfamiliar position of seeking help from Chicago-area food pantries.
Some have arrived at local food pantries wearing their Transportation Security Administration uniforms, stopping in to pick up free groceries on their way home from airport shifts they are working unpaid. One woman wept as she registered at the Lakeview Pantry, perplexed that it had come to this, relieved to have support, CEO Kellie O’Connell said.
“It was a really sobering moment for her to have to step in and say, ‘I need help,’” said O’Connell, whose food pantry has assisted 130 federal workers since the partial government shutdown began Dec. 22.
As the shutdown stretches into an unprecedented fifth week, basic living expenses have slipped out of reach for many of the 800,000 federal employees who aren’t getting paid. More than 12,600 of those workers are in Illinois, according to National Association of State Workforce Agencies. At least 700 federal workers in Illinois have applied for unemployment insurance as a result of the shutdown, according to the Illinois Department of Employment Security.
Initial reluctance to accept assistance has fallen by the wayside as people reach a point of desperation, said Darrell English, vice president of Midway Airport Local 777, which represents 400 TSA employees.
“After a while you have to let that pride go,” said English, a TSA officer for 14 years.
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TSA officer Latoi Winfrey, 35, who has three kids, has been borrowing money from friends to get by, and even applied for food stamps. She said she was denied and told to try again in a month.
Federal employees are usually the ones holding food drives and donating to pantries, so it is unsettling to see them on the receiving line, said Kate Maehr, executive director of the Greater Chicago Food Depository.
The rise in demand has been met with a rise in donations and volunteers as communities rally to help, so there is currently no threat to inventory, she said. But Maehr is worried that if the shutdown disrupts food stamps, and those recipients turn to food pantries for help, the situation will become unsustainable.
“There is no world in which the charitable response can fill the gap,” she said.
About 1.8 million people in Illinois buy food with the help of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps, which allows them to buy groceries from retailers. The program, which has 38 million participants nationwide, has been funded through February thanks to a temporary workaround in the budget bill, but it’s unclear what will happen to March benefits.
Maehr has been in touch with both the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which funds the program, and the Illinois Department of Human Services, which administers the program in the state, and “there doesn’t seem to be much clarity,” she said. “I’m not sure there is a plan.”
Already, food pantries are preparing for extra strain from the shutdown’s affect on SNAP. The benefits people usually get in February were loaded into their accounts early, by Jan. 20, causing confusion and concern that people won’t know that those benefits have to last them through February.
•••
Among them is Katy, a twenty-something federal employee at a law enforcement agency. She asked that her last name and identifying details not be published because she had been instructed by her department not to speak to the media.
A recent college graduate who attends graduate school at night, Katy grabbed her reusable grocery bags and headed to the pantry Monday because her refrigerator was bare and her $59,000-a-year job wasn’t paying her a cent.
“It’s humbling,” she said as she waited for her number to be called at the pantry. “I know at some point I will get back pay, but for other people this is the norm. I want to make sure at some point I am able to give back.”
Katy, who lives alone in a Lakeview studio, notified her bank, credit cards and landlord that she isn’t getting paid, and they have been understanding. She worries about her car loan because she was able to defer payment for just a month, and there is no telling how long the shutdown will go on.
Katy has had to work during the shutdown, though she said she and her co-workers spend most of their time talking about how they are struggling.
“I have a job with this supposedly prestigious law enforcement agency and I can’t afford groceries right now, or asthma medication,” Katy said.
She has already started looking for a new job in the private sector, and if the shutdown hits the two-month mark, she plans to quit.
If there is a silver lining to the mess, it is the compassion she has received. After posting a photo of her bare refrigerator on Facebook, a friend she hasn’t spoken to since high school offered to pay a month’s rent.
“It gave me faith in humanity again,” she said.
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Post by sponge on Jan 31, 2019 7:55:36 GMT -8
Will ignore the snide personal remarks and attacks.
Two interesting observations that explain the move up from a TA and FA point of view. I noticed them this morning and it became more clear as I looked at charts and earnings numbers.
With. TA we hit an RSI of 24 in Dec. We usually rally 20% from such a low RSI. Therefore we should get back up to 174. Which also happens to be a gap that needs to be filled and we will hit RSI of 70 which signals being overbought. Also MACD turned bullish in the trajectory on Jan 7. The upward slope indicated that regardless what aapl would report we would go up. There were more call contracts in the 155-170 range for this week then puts. It was hard to tell which way would go, but now I understand much more.
Now to justify all this WS focused on FA. They ignored the revenue drop in guidance and were happy it did not show $55 billion or below. Mine was $54. Big focus on services. The growth in base was significant at 50% over 12 months. Average subscription yields about $10 a month and if you take into account 60% gross margin, it is impressive. Now Apple is telling us that they will double by 2020. With 500 million subscribers by then with an average revenue of $15 a month, they will easily double service revenue.
Since that service revenue only makes up 15% of overall revenue, it is not a big deal. But if we were to drop iPHone revenue by 20% this FY and another 15% next FY, suddenly service revenue can jump to about 25% of overall revenue. It would depend on what the Mac, iPad, and wearables due in that time frame.
So WS is not excited about Apple for this quarter like they are about cloud computing with AMZN or servers with INTC.
In regards to lowering prices on the iPhone, I think Apple will do what they did with the iPad. Give us a new model at a much cheaper price. The model will be similar to the SE. The timing is hard to predict, but I think TC has miscalculated China and will react much too slow. There is a great article about that in the WSJ.
The smaller phone is not for China but just the rest of the world to make up for the drop in China.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,186
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 31, 2019 9:42:02 GMT -8
Never thought I’d say this, but can we stop talking politics. 😝
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Post by gtrplyr on Jan 31, 2019 9:42:34 GMT -8
I haven’t posted in 2 weeks because I’ve been sitting in a hospital room next to my ailing dad. Puts things into perspective.
I have been reading the board and it’s helping to take my mind off the situation .
Cheers to the longs ....
Sponge ... give us a break already with your gloom and doom .... we get it.
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Post by hledgard on Jan 31, 2019 10:17:41 GMT -8
I haven’t posted in 2 weeks because I’ve been sitting in a hospital room next to my ailing dad. Puts things into perspective. I have been reading the board and it’s helping to take my mind off the situation . Nice post gtrplyr ! Agree !
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Jan 31, 2019 12:26:40 GMT -8
Just a reminder, we come here to consider different perspectives, particularly those that might challenge our own.
It is fine to discuss, question, and even disagree with ideas presented. However, please be careful not to attack individuals. We have previously lost members who felt they were being attacked. Let's not repeat that.
Of course, you are free to block members whose commentary you prefer not to hear.
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Post by nwjade on Jan 31, 2019 13:07:16 GMT -8
We know carrier subsidy programs going away have had an impact on iphone sales elongating the replacement cycle.
Apple is working on getting the iphone into more people's hands by increasing both its upgrade and trade in programs.
Should they create the equivalent of Apple subsidy subscription programs?
Services which include an iphone could be bundled in various tiers and depending on what tier you subscribe to a particular iphone would be included at a discount.
Or create your own custom package which includes an iphone and would allow other hardware like the watch or ipad to be added.
Maybe this is where Apple's headed after services are built out more and video, magazine, health care and whatever other planned services launch?
Thoughts?
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Post by sponge on Jan 31, 2019 13:15:50 GMT -8
We know carrier subsidy programs going away have had an impact on iphone sales elongating the replacement cycle. Apple is working on getting the iphone into more people's hands by increasing both its upgrade and trade in programs. Should they create the equivalent of Apple subsidy subscription programs? Services which include an iphone could be bundled in various tiers and depending on what tier you subscribe to a particular iphone would be included at a discount. Or create your own custom package which includes an iphone and would allow other hardware like the watch or ipad to be added. Maybe this is where Apple's headed after services are built out more and video, magazine, health care and whatever other planned services launch? Thoughts? I think so. But it will on succeed if we have a great video library and strong original content. Also the prices of the iPhone must come down about $300. The issue that would still be present is why would so someone with a great bundle and latest iPhone want to upgrade the hardware every two years.
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Post by macster on Jan 31, 2019 14:04:35 GMT -8
Lets not forget for what its worth, Ovi (Sponge) is always in the top with guidance. I still like him because he's a skier too. The indies dominated, once again, taking six of the top 10 spots. The revised guidance Tim Cook issued on Jan. 2—offering analysts a revenue target of $84 billion—made this quarter a bit of a gimme. Nobody missed the top line by much. The big surprise, I suspect, was how few shares Apple snapped up while the stock was in free fall. [ 94 more words ] www.ped30.com/…/…/apple-best-worst-analysts-q1-2019/I like all of you even if politics disagrees. lol
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 31, 2019 14:04:44 GMT -8
Has anyone found a good explanation of why Apple bought back so little stock during the quarter despite the low prices? I know they asked about this during conf call but Luca’s explanation was very vague.
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Post by nwjade on Jan 31, 2019 14:08:48 GMT -8
We know carrier subsidy programs going away have had an impact on iphone sales elongating the replacement cycle. Apple is working on getting the iphone into more people's hands by increasing both its upgrade and trade in programs. Should they create the equivalent of Apple subsidy subscription programs? Services which include an iphone could be bundled in various tiers and depending on what tier you subscribe to a particular iphone would be included at a discount. Or create your own custom package which includes an iphone and would allow other hardware like the watch or ipad to be added. Maybe this is where Apple's headed after services are built out more and video, magazine, health care and whatever other planned services launch? Thoughts? I think so. But it will on succeed if we have a great video library and strong original content. I suspect the video service offering is going to be strong. As will other services in addition to video mentioned above.Also the prices of the iPhone must come down about $300. The discounting would slide depending on how premium a package is subscribed to. The issue that would still be present is why would so someone with a great bundle and latest iPhone want to upgrade the hardware every two years. Wouldn't be an issue, it would be a benefit of the program to receive a new phone every two years as part of the services subscription with the old phone flowing to the refurbished world.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 31, 2019 14:40:30 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,649
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 31, 2019 15:17:14 GMT -8
The issue that would still be present is why would so someone with a great bundle and latest iPhone want to upgrade the hardware every two years. Because it's an affordable luxury, and is often the most used piece of technology that people own, a supercomputer that is always connected that they bring everywhere. With no trade-in, that's down to $400-500 a year. From the ads I see, it looks like many people leasing or making payments pay that much a month for a mid-range car. When you put it into perspective, of how much it gets used, vs how much it costs, it's fairly inexpensive. That said, I'd like to see a larger range of current technology price points both low and high, and wouldn't mind Apple making some Edition versions, for those that want to spend even more to get a unique product. It sounds like there are markets for each, both locally and abroad. But I'm just an armchair quarterback here, and just have to assume that Apple has many bright people that think about these things.
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Post by sponge on Jan 31, 2019 15:29:09 GMT -8
If Apple could give me a bundle with their full iTunes movie library, iCloud storage, Apple Music, Apple care for 4 iPhones and 3 iPads and 2 Macs, and 4 Apple Watches. Get all that for less then I pay now and drop Netflix and Prime, then we may get somewhere.
But to spend more just to have a new iPhone every year or two is not worth it.
I don’t think they can offer all that and make people spend $300 more.
People will do the math and realize they are still paying $1000 for the latest iPhone.
My dad has the iPhone C and it does everything he needs. Text, camera, email, maps, and a great phone. He is not upgrading after 4.5 years. He laughs when I tell him he would have to spend $450 for a new iPhone.
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Post by nwjade on Jan 31, 2019 15:46:40 GMT -8
If Apple could give me a bundle with their full iTunes movie library, iCloud storage, Apple Music, Apple care for 4 iPhones and 3 iPads and 2 Macs, and 4 Apple Watches. Get all that for less then I pay now and drop Netflix and Prime, then we may get somewhere. But to spend more just to have a new iPhone every year or two is not worth it. I don’t think they can offer all that and make people spend $300 more. People will do the math and realize they are still paying $1000 for the latest iPhone. My dad has the iPhone C and it does everything he needs. Text, camera, email, maps, and a great phone. He is not upgrading after 4.5 years. He laughs when I tell him he would have to spend $450 for a new iPhone. The point I'm making is people wouldn't be paying regular pricing for the iphone anymore as part of a services subscription package. They would be paying a discounted price. The discount would become greater and greater depending on the level of subscription.
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Post by sponge on Jan 31, 2019 17:43:28 GMT -8
Apple needs to offer people a service that continues to ensure that iPHones are sold. Payment plans will only generate so much new interest. People are savy enough to understand final cost. Value of the subscription service needs to offer enough savings that people won't care that the iPhone costs $800 or more. Right now I don't see a plan that would work. We are all speculating about a bundled subscription services that includes hardware and software services. Apple may create one, but I think its pricing will determine its success.
To this day I don't think TC and company want to lower the prices of the iPhone. They have painted themselves into a corner by charging more rather than less. The iPhone 7 with little memory of 32Gig is not cheap enough or functional for most smart phone customers. If they could offer the XR for $599 I think that would be a great start and people would be more likely to add services.
I had a 64 Gig and then Apple forced me to upgrade to the 128. Then I was forced again to go up to 256. That type of move is costing them dearly.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 31, 2019 20:09:25 GMT -8
... People are savy enough to understand final cost. ... The iPhone 7 with little memory of 32Gig is not cheap enough or functional for most smart phone customers. ...I had a 64 Gig and then Apple forced me to upgrade to the 128. Then I was forced again to go up to 256. That type of move is costing them dearly. A year ago, while on a ski lift (gives a great variety of people, though obviously not everyone), I saw the 20-something next to me had a X. I asked about how he liked it, and like me he had had trouble in cold temps with his older iPhone, and so he upgraded. But as far as the X, he said something about how it was only $8 more a month, and so he went for it instead of the 8. I don't have a good sense of how many people finance their iPhone like this (we just had to make a choice this morning on which of the 4 or so ways to pay for braces for our oldest...they give plenty of choices). But he wasn't the first that I've talked to who was just paying a few bucks more per month, all tied into his standard bill. On the iPhone 7, I just clicked on a groupon this weekend, for buying a used one. They are down to $249 there, though for $30 or $50 more you can get the maxed out memory one instead. I was amazed at how inexpensive the 7 and 8 were. It's not for everyone, but like your dad with the (5)C, my 5S does everything I need. And I know I'll wipe out or crash at some point and kill it, so I figure I am self-insuring it, and will just wait to upgrade until it dies, or I have a good reason. But mine just has 16 gigs, or something like 14 gigs usable. This morning I checked before running the software update on it, and it had 2 gigs free. Personally I'd prefer to have a little more music on it, but if you stop trying to keep more photos/music/video on it than you really will ever need, you really don't need that much space.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,555
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Post by mark on Feb 1, 2019 8:41:07 GMT -8
Also the prices of the iPhone must come down about $300. Sure. When the average annual profit per iPhone out there (900M or so?) from recurring revenue is $100-150, then yes. But not before that. Because if Apple did this before that, then why bother selling iPhones without any meaningful profit? Android already does that, no need to copy them!
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Post by sponge on Feb 1, 2019 9:00:58 GMT -8
Also the prices of the iPhone must come down about $300. Sure. When the average annual profit per iPhone out there (900M or so?) from recurring revenue is $100-150, then yes. But not before that. Because if Apple did this before that, then why bother selling iPhones without any meaningful profit? Android already does that, no need to copy them! I agree. That is why Apple painted themselves into a corner. They relied too much on the iPhone gross margin and now it will take time to move from that. I expect two years of transition. When 2020 comes out we will have the 5G phone and maybe at $150 less, meaning the XS is $749, we will get all those folks with the 7 and 8 to upgrade.
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