Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2019 3:06:45 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Feb 5, 2019 6:20:15 GMT -8
By the way, a note to anyone ranting Huawei, I am not defending their IP theft actions, but they are no where without Google. Who blatantly copied iOS, gave it away for free, and enabled Huawei, Samsung, and countless others.
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Post by playultimate on Feb 5, 2019 6:25:57 GMT -8
By the way, a note to anyone ranting Huawei, I am not defending their IP theft actions, but they are no where without Google. Who blatantly copied iOS, gave it away for free, and enabled Huawei, Samsung, and countless others. Let's not forget that Schmidt was on the Apple BODs when the iPhone was being developed.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2019 6:45:13 GMT -8
Just a reminder for those who want to attend the Apple Annual Meeting, you must register in advance. Registration opens tomorrow (February 6) at 8AM PST / Noon EST.
Contact your broker for more information.
Last year registration closed in about an hour. All seats were taken.
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 7:39:37 GMT -8
Well this run that started on Dec 26th should be coming to an end. A close above 176 this week may lead us to 188, but I very much doubt that. It alll depends on the SPY at this point.
I am looking for a sharp move downward and then sideways action. The after that it will depend on Trump and how much he caves to Chinese on Tariffs.
After watching Nancy’s drunk press conference the other day, I am not too confident Trump stand up to the sober Communist bosses and will work with them just like TC. We shall see.
All TA indicators show a nice correction in March. The markets are betting there is no trade deal.
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Post by PikesPique on Feb 5, 2019 7:55:57 GMT -8
TA? Tea leaves and Astrology?
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 8:20:08 GMT -8
For those who may not know TA looks are these indicators
RSI, MACD, Moving averages, gaps, OI in puts or calls, ViX, oil prices, and finally direction of overall market.
One has to follow how aapl is doing relative to SPY.
I was not paying attention to SPY until Dec. But the rest I have and it is rather fun watching the future.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Feb 5, 2019 8:38:38 GMT -8
Sponge, please let us know when you execute your massive set of puts to profit off of this anticipated March correction. It may be fun to follow along.
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Post by 2centsplus on Feb 5, 2019 9:02:19 GMT -8
I think Sponge may be more right than wrong here.
Given Chinese real estate, US debt, the EU mess including Brexit, recession possibilities, and the general geopolitical situation, I think the market is probably going to need a major reset in the coming year or two, unfortunately dragging ye olde fruit company down with it.
Just an opinion and just some kind of probability..
“Always wrong, never in doubt.”
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 9:28:41 GMT -8
My March options may not do well despite a drop. Only see aapl dropping to 146 which is not low enough. Yes it will please the haters here. I did not see the SPY reversal from Dec until this week and bought them two weeks early. Also the reversal of the Fed was a factor, even though they confirmed the economy is not that strong. Secondly I did not expect Trump to cave so easily to Nancy. So I think chances of a China deal are much higher then two weeks ago. So it boils down to Trump. If he stays strong and we trigger the 25% tariffs then I expect the SPY to drop under 230 and aapl to follow respectively. With that scenario I should do very well. But will be buying calls in April and then puts in May. So not worried about outcome in March. I think the US economy will slow down significantly regardless of what the WH is touting. The fed confirmed that last week.
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Post by plcm123 on Feb 5, 2019 9:51:53 GMT -8
I think Sponge may be more right than wrong here. Given Chinese real estate, US debt, the EU mess including Brexit, recession possibilities, and the general geopolitical situation, I think the market is probably going to need a major reset in the coming year or two, unfortunately dragging ye olde fruit company down with it. Just an opinion and just some kind of probability.. “Always wrong, never in doubt.” All of these possibilities are already factored in to the current AAPL stock price. AAPL is resilient because of the strong buy back, the new patents that Apple keeps cranking out, the motivation of their employees because I'm sure they also own Apple shares. Apple wearable IS the new iphone and its market is growing. iPhone moves to mainstream in developing countries to satisfy more price sensitive consumers. Apple products' internal components will be more in-house design and eventually built by robots that will help maximize profits even further. Stocks will move up and down, but I think the overall trend will be positive in the long term. Tim Cook will retire eventually (for those who wish him to go) when he's eligible. But Apple foundation and culture will remain for the rest of the team to carry on. Look at those short video clips of how Johnny Ive describes Apple products design and engineerring aspects of it, and you can tell they are in this for the long run.
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 10:33:33 GMT -8
Not convinced all the concerns are factored in. We dropped 39% in two months. Clearly those concerns were there in Oct and they were not factored in.
To me the biggest red flags was when iPhone unit sales were only up 1% when Apple raised the price by $300. They got greedy and full of hubris and decided to charger $1400 for high end.
Now we see the 15% drop in units.
What happens next Jan when we drop another 15% after the rest of the world follows China in a major slow down?
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Post by plcm123 on Feb 5, 2019 11:01:51 GMT -8
Not convinced all the concerns are factored in. We dropped 39% in two months. Clearly those concerns were there in Oct and they were not factored in. To me the biggest red flags was when iPhone unit sales were only up 1% when Apple raised the price by $300. They got greedy and full of hubris and decided to charger $1400 for high end. Now we see the 15% drop in units. What happens next Jan when we drop another 15% after the rest of the world follows China in a major slow down? I would say those concerns are already factored in. And Apple will adapt to the consumer price sensitivity, just like how they changed the first iPhone model initial price and became successful. Their customer satisfaction is still top. Also I think a lot of corporation employees that use iphone, but they don't upgrade until at least a few months after the release of the new model, which is around Dec or later (IT takes time to test the new model before approve it).
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 5, 2019 12:01:43 GMT -8
For those who may not know TA looks are these indicators RSI, MACD, Moving averages, gaps, OI in puts or calls, ViX, oil prices, and finally direction of overall market.One has to follow how aapl is doing relative to SPY. I was not paying attention to SPY until Dec. But the rest I have and it is rather fun watching the future. That sounds like a whole lot of work, sponge, so I think I'm fine just "watching the future" though your AFB posts. That's rather *fun* as well.
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Post by lulli on Feb 5, 2019 12:18:05 GMT -8
They got greedy and full of hubris and decided to charger $1400 for high end. This is just what people who don't have a clue say. I don't believe that the margin on the high end phones is larger. What they did, is decide their market would be interested in getting their innovation earlier: So they introduced the iPhone X with those surface emitting lasers, truedepth camera, faceID, and OLED screen, and it was more expensive than usual because it cost more to make. Then, one year later, they were able to put some of the new stuff in the iPhone XR, which replaced the iPhone 8. At introduction, the 8 and its "plus" sibling started at $700 and $800. The XR starts at $750. It was the choice of selling an iPhone model with more features and more expensive components that drove up the prices. You can argue about strategies, but "got greedy" is shortsighted. Most importantly, it is bad information.
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Post by incorrigible on Feb 5, 2019 12:20:12 GMT -8
Not convinced all the concerns are factored in. We dropped 39% in two months. Clearly those concerns were there in Oct and they were not factored in. To me the biggest red flags was when iPhone unit sales were only up 1% when Apple raised the price by $300. They got greedy and full of hubris and decided to charger $1400 for high end. Now we see the 15% drop in units. What happens next Jan when we drop another 15% after the rest of the world follows China in a major slow down? Developing a killer, popular product is difficult. Modifying pricing is easy. I personally am not worried.
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Post by nwjade on Feb 5, 2019 12:25:15 GMT -8
For those who may not know TA looks are these indicators RSI, MACD, Moving averages, gaps, OI in puts or calls, ViX, oil prices, and finally direction of overall market. One has to follow how aapl is doing relative to SPY. I was not paying attention to SPY until Dec. But the rest I have and it is rather fun watching the future. Just a non hater observation... Your market timing isn't working: sold at 207 which was good, bought back in at 196 and sold after the warning at 143... 196 -> 143 = -27% loss 143 -> 174 = +22% bounce since you sold 196 -> 174 = -11% if you would have held The trend has reversed up for a multitude of reasons for now. It is what it is until it isn't. Just concerned, as we all know timing the market is hard and making up losses with options is even harder and high risk.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 5, 2019 12:27:09 GMT -8
They got greedy and full of hubris and decided to charger $1400 for high end. This is just what people who don't have a clue say. I don't believe that the margin on the high end phones is larger. What they did, is decide their market would be interested in getting their innovation earlier: So they introduced the iPhone X with those surface emitting lasers, truedepth camera, faceID, and OLED screen, and it was more expensive than usual because it cost more to make. Then, one year later, they were able to put some of the new stuff in the iPhone XR, which replaced the iPhone 8. At introduction, the 8 and its "plus" sibling started at $700 and $800. The XR starts at $750. It was the choice of selling an iPhone model with more features and more expensive components that drove up the prices. You can argue about strategies, but "got greedy" is shortsighted. Most importantly, it is bad information. Thank you. Refreshing to hear a voice of reason. Love how people who have never developed a product, or had to build one, can think they have a clue, and be so convinced of it. EDIT - we also cannot forget the serious R&D costs to deliver those capabilities. Which need to be amortized. Also, the knock-off commodity guys spend next to nothing on software, with Google footing the bill. Apple MUST innovate in these areas, make the iPhone an overall superior experience, and so on. So they are the only serious phone supplier with a serious OS bill to pay. That also needs to be amortized.
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 12:41:00 GMT -8
They got greedy and full of hubris and decided to charger $1400 for high end. This is just what people who don't have a clue say. I don't believe that the margin on the high end phones is larger. What they did, is decide their market would be interested in getting their innovation earlier: So they introduced the iPhone X with those surface emitting lasers, truedepth camera, faceID, and OLED screen, and it was more expensive than usual because it cost more to make. Then, one year later, they were able to put some of the new stuff in the iPhone XR, which replaced the iPhone 8. At introduction, the 8 and its "plus" sibling started at $700 and $800. The XR starts at $750. It was the choice of selling an iPhone model with more features and more expensive components that drove up the prices. You can argue about strategies, but "got greedy" is shortsighted. Most importantly, it is bad information. And yet they sold 15% less and revenue was 9% less then most bullish view including my own. A winning strategy? Apple will have to lower prices and when they do it will hurt margins. Except TC will do it too late and the economies will kill any momentum. By the way S&P is about to touch the 200 MA. It wants to go above it. The next two days will tell us where we go short term. RSI for aapl is exactly where it was when we hit 233. If we were to correct again like the last 3 months we can hit 106 by June. I am not timing the market. My horizon is not based on 3 months of swing trading. Let’s revisit the stock in June and July. I still think we will hit $300 + a share by Jan 2023.
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Post by plcm123 on Feb 5, 2019 13:31:04 GMT -8
This is just what people who don't have a clue say. I don't believe that the margin on the high end phones is larger. What they did, is decide their market would be interested in getting their innovation earlier: So they introduced the iPhone X with those surface emitting lasers, truedepth camera, faceID, and OLED screen, and it was more expensive than usual because it cost more to make. Then, one year later, they were able to put some of the new stuff in the iPhone XR, which replaced the iPhone 8. At introduction, the 8 and its "plus" sibling started at $700 and $800. The XR starts at $750. It was the choice of selling an iPhone model with more features and more expensive components that drove up the prices. You can argue about strategies, but "got greedy" is shortsighted. Most importantly, it is bad information. And yet they sold 15% less and revenue was 9% less then most bullish view including my own. A winning strategy? Apple will have to lower prices and when they do it will hurt margins. Except TC will do it too late and the economies will kill any momentum. By the way S&P is about to touch the 200 MA. It wants to go above it. The next two days will tell us where we go short term. RSI for aapl is exactly where it was when we hit 233. If we were to correct again like the last 3 months we can hit 106 by June. I am not timing the market. My horizon is not based on 3 months of swing trading. Let’s revisit the stock in June and July. I still think we will hit $300 + a share by Jan 2023. If they lower the prices, the big increase in number of unit sales and better component prices should not impact margin much, if any at all. There's no such thing as 'too late' since new models come out every year, and don't forget the 5G update, which is a must eventually.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 5, 2019 13:37:06 GMT -8
Just saw a headline that Angela Ahrendts is leaving
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Feb 5, 2019 13:42:02 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 13:52:32 GMT -8
Apple's gross margin was between 37.5-38.5 after the big iPad growth and iPhone 6 release. 2013-2015 In those years one could buy the latest iPhone for $599. If you wanted more memory you paid an extra $100. The following year you could get that same phone for $499. So a $100 drop did not hurt margins.
Now if you want the latest you have to spend $1099. Yes Apple managed to increase the price by $500. You get the latest tech and you are forced to buy a bigger size. Never mind the more memory. Margin sill is 38%. There is a small chance Apple can lower the price by $250 without hurting margins. I agree that new technology costs more and they are not making $300 more in profit. However TC the manufacturing genius could not negotiate lower prices on those features despite selling a ton more iPhones then 2013. Never mind he put all of his eggs in the growth story of China. in order to keep a high gross margin they increased the price, but also played games with memory upgrades and sizes of iPhones. That to me is pure greed. It is a short term gain for a longer term headache. iPhone sales will show a drop for three years in a row. Yes it can go back up with the 5G but no everyone will upgrade in 2020 like they did in 2015 for 6 or 2017 for X
They also got rid of the 5C too soon and also the SE. They are trying hard to force everyone to spend more money by buying bigger screens and more memory.
They did the same with iPad Pro, Mac Air, and Apple Watch. Remember when you could get an Apple Watch for $14k and then for $1200. Those models were taken off the market a year later.
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 13:54:44 GMT -8
She wisely cashed out and TC got rid of a potential replacement of his CEO position. She was great and would have been a great CEO.
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Post by nwjade on Feb 5, 2019 13:58:00 GMT -8
After all the hype, money she was paid... shaking my head.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 5, 2019 14:05:46 GMT -8
She wisely cashed out and TC got rid of a potential replacement of his CEO position. She was great and would have been a great CEO. I disagree! "for new personal and professional pursuits," Apple announced Tuesday." SHE was fired. DEIRDRE is replacing her TODAY HERE
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 14:18:07 GMT -8
She wisely cashed out and TC got rid of a potential replacement of his CEO position. She was great and would have been a great CEO. I disagree! "for new personal and professional pursuits," Apple announced Tuesday." SHE was fired. DEIRDRE is replacing her TODAY HEREI agree she was fired. She wisely sold about $20 million in stock the last two years. I should note that I have been less impressed with customer service in the stores. I don’t think it was her fault. The Burberry customer is more sophisticated and easier to manage then the teenagers Apple hired to keep up with growth and traffic in the last 6 years.
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Post by incorrigible on Feb 5, 2019 14:35:18 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Feb 5, 2019 14:46:28 GMT -8
No one here knows that she was fired. Cmon. Nothing in that article says she is being replaced today. She is leaving in April. Of course the replacement is named today. SMH.
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Post by sponge on Feb 5, 2019 14:46:32 GMT -8
I have to admit that as much as some enjoy following my posts and are ready to pounce, I do get a kick from the crazy responses. I say some things just to keep some of your blood pressure high and increase your heat rates so you can burn more calorie with the Apple Watch.
Autocorrect sucks and it is yet one more big Apple miss along with search and maps.
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