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Post by fas550 on Dec 20, 2012 18:33:23 GMT -8
I survived the shoveling. A solid foot or more of the heaviest snow. Plenty of neighborly shoveling with more tomorrow. By Saturday, Wisconsin will be back to its "regular" economic activity. LOL. Good for you. When I bought a house in FL I realized most of my "Seasonal" neighbors are from WI and MN. My best friend from WI always bragged about going to get the mail in mid-winter in a T-Shirt. I later told him that he neglected to mention he was at his winter home him FL. BTW after one year in VA I realized I wasn't going anywhere in the snow with nothing but rear wheel drive cars and no more than 4 inch of ground clearance unless I shoveled. Did that one year and I'm done with shoveling. I bought a Jeep and drive over it.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 20, 2012 18:57:35 GMT -8
Chas, how can you NOT get excited about weak helium stocks maybe getting their just desserts for a little while? Heh, and you bet on RIMM and shorted AAPL possibly ahead of the curve? (I'll concede that the market could well take all the "fun" - er downside opportunity? - out of said helium stocks at market open.)
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 20, 2012 19:10:40 GMT -8
Boehner didn't even have the votes from his own caucus! Obama threw SS under the bus trying to get something done. Dems were setting their hair on fire over that. Luckily bot a handful of weekly put spreads to help. Tired of this crap. Time to retreat to a bunker. Threw SS under the bus? How? Marketwatch has a graph up showing that the $$$$'s are real close. What the graph also shows is that all of this deal making does not even scratch the yearly deficit and that most benefits presented by both sides are rear loaded, meaning they are not worth the air to be spoken about. There really is only one difference between a deal or no deal. A deal may avert a recession, no deal guarantees one. I would post the chart but MW is having glitches.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 20, 2012 19:31:17 GMT -8
Dang I didn't get put spread filled and didn't want to adjust. That woulda been a nice help for tomorrow's drop
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Post by renee on Dec 20, 2012 19:33:52 GMT -8
Any ideas for hedges/disaster insurance given all the talk about breaking below 500? I am used to being an uber-bull, but now need to take some steps towards learning to manage and hedge better. Don't think I will ever be able to short Aapl under any circumtances, but I certainly could have done better at managing the last few months...
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 20, 2012 19:35:11 GMT -8
Cash is the best hedge, many of the AFB have said.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 20, 2012 19:41:35 GMT -8
Cash is the best hedge, many of the AFB have said. Use to be words I lived by.
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Post by mstefa on Dec 20, 2012 19:43:47 GMT -8
Rogers in Canada offered me free iphone 5's to switch my family to iphone 3 year plan with them . ( i have 4s) but my wife and daughter are not with them. So, move 2 numbers over, get 2 iphone 5s and sign 3 years.3 years is typical here. Plan price is very comparable.. Got the offer today, and its good to dec 31st
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Post by renee on Dec 20, 2012 19:50:31 GMT -8
Cash is the best hedge, many of the AFB have said. Invested most on the way down . Used to have time on my side (in addition to cash), but these last few months have chipped it away . Hard lessons learned (again).
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Post by alice on Dec 20, 2012 19:52:57 GMT -8
Send email to President. Send email to your representative. We want a fiscal cliff deal before year end.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 20, 2012 19:55:52 GMT -8
I got the chart posted, you will have to look real hard to see what all this fuss is about. It really is laughable. The little blue bars make me wonder what they are really trying to accomplish.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 20, 2012 19:57:46 GMT -8
Send email to President. Send email to your representative. We want a fiscal cliff deal before year end. They are gone for Christmas and have left us with coal.
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Post by alice on Dec 20, 2012 20:03:21 GMT -8
They can make a statement to calm the markets at least.
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Post by prazan on Dec 20, 2012 20:05:58 GMT -8
BTW has anyone heard anything from Andy Zaky? No articles, no one liners or comments? Both Cobra and Zaky see a bullish flag in formation. Neither discounts the possibility that Apple drops lower in the short term. Zaky is watching 515-518. He thinks selling is losing momentum on the downdrafts, that the stock is forming a double bottom in a W shaped recovery. Cobra sees a short term rally to 539, but thinks a drop after that back to 500 a 50/50 possibility. The rally to 539 is based on a 61.8% fib measured move target. I've been following both Cobra and Zaky for the past several months. I think I prefer Lovemyipad because she's good at this but doesn't pretend to know the unknowable.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 20, 2012 20:09:41 GMT -8
They can make a statement to calm the markets at least. They are on their planes heading home Alice.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 20, 2012 20:09:58 GMT -8
Any ideas for hedges/disaster insurance given all the talk about breaking below 500? I am used to being an uber-bull, but now need to take some steps towards learning to manage and hedge better. Don't think I will ever be able to short Aapl under any circumtances, but I certainly could have done better at managing the last few months... We all could have. I didn't start to listen until too late. At this point I think we're potentially looking at another 10% drop at the most (I hope). And I would think that it would come before January OE. I'm interested in what happens tomorrow, but I'm looking at Jan 13 480/475 bear put spreads.
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 20, 2012 20:12:20 GMT -8
If you can get your portfolio through the tough times you'll be a much better investor/trader for the trials and tribulations.
External factors really hammered AAPL...again...and we gotta respect that, much as we hate it happened. Tomorrow is an important measuring day.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 20, 2012 20:30:36 GMT -8
BTW has anyone heard anything from Andy Zaky? No articles, no one liners or comments? Both Cobra and Zaky see a bullish flag in formation. Neither discounts the possibility that Apple drops lower in the short term. Zaky is watching 515-518. He thinks selling is losing momentum on the downdrafts, that the stock is forming a double bottom in a W shaped recovery. Cobra sees a short term rally to 539, but thinks a drop after that back to 500 a 50/50 possibility. The rally to 539 is based on a 61.8% fib measured move target. I've been following both Cobra and Zaky for the past several months. I think I prefer Lovemyipad because she's good at this but doesn't pretend to know the unknowable. You are right it unknowable but it does sound quite feasible given current valuation and some TA factors that would exist at those levels. I certainly have noticed the voracity of the selling has diminished BUT my only fear is a large contingent on the sideline maybe holding back unless there is no agreement on the FC.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 20, 2012 20:31:41 GMT -8
(...)I've been following both Cobra and Zaky for the past several months. I think I prefer Lovemyipad because she's good at this but doesn't pretend to know the unknowable.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 20, 2012 21:09:54 GMT -8
Went to my local Walmart. Knew nothing about the infamous discounts
Did say they are selling iPad minis as fast they get them. Gone in two days. Downside is they get a really small supply. As in 10-20 units some weeks.
Possibly theory on discount: apple trying to push demand even higher to get a blow out quarter to shut all the FUD up. Any accounting practice that apple get pay the discount but it not show up on books till expenses the following quarter? Not that I think or would them to do anything like that, but just curious
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Post by erictheoracle on Dec 20, 2012 21:11:37 GMT -8
AFB sounds like a 12 step program with people in different stages of recovery. Eric, you've got to get outside and fire up that snowblower! If you get a chance send some of the white stuff to the Toronto area please! Our snowfall has been unimpressive this year. Here is a view from my front yard. fas550, I sold AAPL a little over $400.00 in after hours well over a year ago and rolled into bank preferred and common issues and a basket of REITs and it has been mostly good.
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Post by erictheoracle on Dec 20, 2012 21:25:53 GMT -8
The market is going to send a message tomorrow. Lets hope its taken seriously of things to come in the case of a no deal. I am not political at all (despise them equally) and I just want some agreement at this moment in time but the GOP has lost all leverage so perhaps because one side is considerably weakened something will happen. Anyway on a positive note at least this is happening now as opposed to 30 Dec. There is time to spare albeit very little. LOL, Agree, I hate all politicians. I really believe Obama does not want to make a deal. The cliff guarantees large cuts to the defense budget which is his primary goal. The Republicans have already caved and there is still no deal. Niagara anyone? Mark, Unlike many, I hold that we should fly off of the fiscal cliff. I'm aggregating a contraction in GDP of 1.7%, three quarters of recession, and then we emerge stronger as a result because people started saving (the basis of true wealth creation) while businesses increased spending (setting up for an increase in the velocity of commerce). I hope all is well with Tammy and yourself.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 20, 2012 21:52:26 GMT -8
LOL, Agree, I hate all politicians. I really believe Obama does not want to make a deal. The cliff guarantees large cuts to the defense budget which is his primary goal. The Republicans have already caved and there is still no deal. Niagara anyone? Mark, Unlike many, I hold that we should fly off of the fiscal cliff. I'm aggregating a contraction in GDP of 1.7%, three quarters of recession, and then we emerge stronger as a result because people started saving (the basis of true wealth creation) while businesses increased spending (setting up for an increase in the velocity of commerce). I hope all is well with Tammy and yourself. Respectfully I don't agree. The penalties for going over the cliff were meant to be so severe (and they are) that it would force the parties to come together and agree (it has not at this time). You and many on this board will probably be okay. Based on you strategy you'll do better than most. However it will cause a ripple effect through the economy that no one really knows the entire negative effect of: but it will be negative. I am not saying it's typical but I know of 2 fortune 1000 companies that have plans (like numbers of people) they plan to let go of in the case of no agreement simply because of the knowledge of lack of spending from their customers if no agreement is reached. Payroll is usually the highest cost to a company and therefore makes the largest and quickest impact if its cut. payroll/employment is also a lagging indicator in a recovery. I just can't agree this would be a good thing as a whole when so many people will be negatively with loosing their job all because of "posturing"
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Post by flyonthewall on Dec 20, 2012 23:33:27 GMT -8
I found it odd that the Safari name history isn't somehow connected to the Mac OS history: Versions of OS X: OS X v10.0 (Cheetah) OS X v10.1 (Puma) OS X v10.2 (Jaguar) OS X v10.3 (Panther) OS X v10.4 (Tiger) OS X v10.5 (Leopard) OS X v10.6 (Snow Leopard) OS X v10.7 (Lion) OS X v10.8 (Mountain Lion) Just offering some light thinking in these otherwise disaster impending times.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 20, 2012 23:46:01 GMT -8
Uh, sure it is!
What might you expect to see if you went on (a) safari?
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Post by flyonthewall on Dec 21, 2012 0:17:47 GMT -8
Uh, sure it is! What might you expect to see if you went on (a) safari? I know the connection is obvious, but I had been doing some searching regarding when and how the "big cat" names developed in AAPL's history and have not found such a discussion. Do you have a source?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2012 3:00:35 GMT -8
Mark, Unlike many, I hold that we should fly off of the fiscal cliff. I'm aggregating a contraction in GDP of 1.7%, three quarters of recession, and then we emerge stronger as a result because people started saving (the basis of true wealth creation) while businesses increased spending (setting up for an increase in the velocity of commerce). I hope all is well with Tammy and yourself. Respectfully I don't agree. The penalties for going over the cliff were meant to be so severe (and they are) that it would force the parties to come together and agree (it has not at this time). You and many on this board will probably be okay. Based on you strategy you'll do better than most. However it will cause a ripple effect through the economy that no one really knows the entire negative effect of: but it will be negative. I am not saying it's typical but I know of 2 fortune 1000 companies that have plans (like numbers of people) they plan to let go of in the case of no agreement simply because of the knowledge of lack of spending from their customers if no agreement is reached. Payroll is usually the highest cost to a company and therefore makes the largest and quickest impact if its cut. payroll/employment is also a lagging indicator in a recovery. I just can't agree this would be a good thing as a whole when so many people will be negatively with loosing their job all because of "posturing" Austerity double standards - apparently its good for some, but not for others. The rest of the world forced Greece into basically going over their version of a fiscal cliff (steep spending cuts, higher taxes) to 'fix' their economy, yet this much milder version of a fiscal cliff is going to be catastrophic to the USA if it happens. One viewpoint is obviously wrong....the question is which one?
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