|
Post by appledoc on Dec 22, 2012 8:21:14 GMT -8
Hey Rick When you mentioned a Pox on "Samesung" it reminded me that those wonderful SIII devices all have that wonderful "NFC" feature. Maybe "Samesung" has now been struck by a nifty virus or "electronic STD" passed by close contact via the "NFC" feature. Seems like a great rumor to start. Actually, it's supposed to be a hardware failure, which would be exceedingly worse since it can't be prevented... But yes, NFC Android viruses would be just a bit funny. In a completely evil way.
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 880
|
Post by Ted on Dec 22, 2012 8:42:02 GMT -8
If you think it's just fine that Apple has no product (Mini) in the stores at Christmas, the most important retail time of the year, then I understand. I'll put you on the side that keeps making excuses for Apple when it's fallen from $700 to $500. So (1) Apple created the 'must have' present of the year and therefore have screwed up? And (2) apparently they screwed up because they made a product (actually products) that push the boundaries of current manufacturing technologies and again, thus differentiating themselves in the market, have therefore screwed up? Meanwhile (by this thinking) Google and all its associated handset/tablet manufacturers have managed to organize an important coup by designing look-alike/operate-alike devices derivative of Apple's designs and intellectual property, while managing to make them simpler to manufacture. I think it is pretty clear that the frustration that a lot of people out there trying to buy Apple's 'must have' present-of-the-year (whichever product that is because there are several) is coming from the sure knowledge that neither 1, nor 2 is true. Whatever the negative buzz might say, no one would get riled up when they couldn't find the Apple product they were looking for (and wouldn't be looking for if any of this were true) if it weren't the case that they find Apple's products truly desirable to own and give as presents. And in my opinion, a lot of that desirability originates in their boundary-pushing designs. Yes, let's all drink to Mediocrity and go buy a 'droid, short Apple, and wait for our opportunity to say "I told you so!" But, you know, I remember that in the past, the demand for 'must-have' presents grew after Christmas even though, or perhaps because, demand far exceeded supply. So, let's instead drink to what will definitely be a great first and second quarters for Apple! I can't wait to hear about all those happy faces opening up their Christmas gifts, when they see it is the Apple device they truly wanted (and not some cheap 'droid look-alike)!y Happy Holidays everyone. Enjoy! I don't really get your point. Yes, it would've been great if the mini had been in stock at every Apple Store every day, and every moment, but anecdotal evidence has been saying that the minis sell out very quickly upon arrival. Hence, there's amazing demand. But in-store purchase is only one approach to securing a mini. I went to Apple's online store and bought one weeks ago - not even right after it launched - and it arrived weeks ago - no big whoop! Most Apple would-be buyers ought to know about that possibility. Soooo, what's the big issue for you? Did an Apple rep not suggest going online and ordering? Or even suggest doing the overnight reservation approach? Please explain por favor . . . Thnx. (And happy holidays all around!)
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Dec 22, 2012 8:44:46 GMT -8
So (1) Apple created the 'must have' present of the year and therefore have screwed up? And (2) apparently they screwed up because they made a product (actually products) that push the boundaries of current manufacturing technologies and again, thus differentiating themselves in the market, have therefore screwed up? Meanwhile (by this thinking) Google and all its associated handset/tablet manufacturers have managed to organize an important coup by designing look-alike/operate-alike devices derivative of Apple's designs and intellectual property, while managing to make them simpler to manufacture. I think it is pretty clear that the frustration that a lot of people out there trying to buy Apple's 'must have' present-of-the-year (whichever product that is because there are several) is coming from the sure knowledge that neither 1, nor 2 is true. Whatever the negative buzz might say, no one would get riled up when they couldn't find the Apple product they were looking for (and wouldn't be looking for if any of this were true) if it weren't the case that they find Apple's products truly desirable to own and give as presents. And in my opinion, a lot of that desirability originates in their boundary-pushing designs. Yes, let's all drink to Mediocrity and go buy a 'droid, short Apple, and wait for our opportunity to say "I told you so!" But, you know, I remember that in the past, the demand for 'must-have' presents grew after Christmas even though, or perhaps because, demand far exceeded supply. So, let's instead drink to what will definitely be a great first and second quarters for Apple! I can't wait to hear about all those happy faces opening up their Christmas gifts, when they see it is the Apple device they truly wanted (and not some cheap 'droid look-alike)! Happy Holidays everyone. Enjoy! +1 or 2 Christmas cocktails +1 from me too. The original post that links alleged supply chain problems to a high quality/differentiated product is laughable.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Dec 22, 2012 9:23:03 GMT -8
Living God of SCM not the same as Living God of Production Ramp. This is a first-gen product with demand that could conceivably dwarf the demand for iPad 2 this time last year. You don't build flat-out and damn the consequences. iPhone 5 is already approaching the upper limit of how quickly you can ramp up production for an anything that's new, and it's iterative. See also: Apple's curious little experiment with US manufacturing. A company doing more than $150B in business a year in a few products will suffer demand spikes. That's not inexcusable, that's a good sign, particularly if demand eventually balances (under Cook, it always does) and people don't go looking for "equivalent" products in large numbers before it does (the great iOS vs. everyone else consumer debate). Apple will build quite the little manufacturing empire over the next 10 years, I suspect. Foxconn is a valued partner, but Tim appears to be taking the long view. Not many care that the next Mac Pro will be mostly made in the same country as Apple's corporate headquarters. That makes it a smart move. It's quite clear to me that Tim plans to build on that if he can. Great observations Mav. I am more excited about what Apple has up its sleeve here in the US more then how many iPhones or iPads they plan on selling in the next 24 months. 2016 is the year they will blow us away with the first amazing new technologies build here in the US. They will leave Android and MS further in the dust.
|
|
|
Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 22, 2012 9:34:47 GMT -8
A negative spin: I know a gullible college aged girl that recently went in to a Best Buy and came out with a (gasp) samesung even though she went in wanting a iPhone. She said the workers there really sold the galaxy hard saying it was better and that they even have the galaxy. So she believed them(her first smart phone purchase)
A shame because as most of us know once you are on an iPhone you never wanna switch..
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Dec 22, 2012 9:37:59 GMT -8
Great observations Mav. I am more excited about what Apple has up its sleeve here in the US more then how many iPhones or iPads they plan on selling in the next 24 months. 2016 is the year they will blow us away with the first amazing new technologies build here in the US. They will leave Android and MS further in the dust. I have seen this theme elsewhere and it makes NO sense. Moving fabs and/or manufacturing will have no impact on Apple's ability to innovate or to create anything "amazing". No one should be making investment decisions based on pipe dreams and fantasies like this.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 22, 2012 9:52:59 GMT -8
Great observations Mav. I am more excited about what Apple has up its sleeve here in the US more then how many iPhones or iPads they plan on selling in the next 24 months. 2016 is the year they will blow us away with the first amazing new technologies build here in the US. They will leave Android and MS further in the dust. I have seen this theme elsewhere and it makes NO sense. Moving fabs and/or manufacturing will have no impact on Apple ability to innovate or to create anything "amazing". No one should be making investment decisions based on pipe dreams and fantasies like this. I will agree 90 % on the "innovation ability" aspect, but probably more. Until there's a factory groundbreaking, we have to step away from the stimulants. 100 % agreement on the "investment decision" aspect. Its way too far down the road to be on anybody's investment roadmap.
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Dec 22, 2012 10:30:16 GMT -8
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2012 11:28:32 GMT -8
Third weekly close below the weekly lower acceleration band. I don't expect to see a strong move up until we close/open a week above that line. I don't expect to see an up week until after Jan 1. Whoops, that's about 10 days from now. Whatever tax selling is going on still will disappear entirely. REPs and DEMs will have done what they both knew they were going to do all along (after posturing for their constituents). Without artificial suppressors holding AAPL back, AAPL will rebound about $100 (maybe more if the institutions believe Apple is going to exceed expectations) prior to earnings.
|
|
|
Post by Rupert on Dec 22, 2012 11:37:50 GMT -8
Third weekly close below the weekly lower acceleration band. I don't expect to see a strong move up until we close/open a week above that line. I don't expect to see an up week until after Jan 1. Whoops, that's about 10 days from now. Whatever tax selling is going on still will disappear entirely. REPs and DEMs will have done what they both knew they were going to do all along (after posturing for their constituents). Without artificial suppressors holding AAPL back, AAPL will rebound about $100 (maybe more if the institutions believe Apple is going to exceed expectations) prior to earnings. That would be Great, hope you're right. Have a Super Holiday Gregg.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 22, 2012 12:16:25 GMT -8
Travel conditions on most roads is hazardous in central Wisconsin. Snow plows with or without salting are unable to keep roads clearish. My own road is 50 % ice, not much blacktop seen.
YouTube and friends are getting a workout this weekend.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 22, 2012 13:04:52 GMT -8
No one should ever buy hype and hope. When I buy AAPL I buy what's in front of me and the next product cycle.
Apple may go multi-billion in US manufacturing years down the road, but that's just to further its business goals. It has all the inventing tools and talent it needs and it'll build from there like it always does (always amazes me to see Apple's R&D efficiency).
Stay safe, Cl4 and anyone else who has to brave winter weather conditions.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
|
Post by chinacat on Dec 22, 2012 13:16:09 GMT -8
Without artificial suppressors holding AAPL back, AAPL will rebound about $100 (maybe more if the institutions believe Apple is going to exceed expectations) prior to earnings. Gregg, what are YOUR current feelings about Apple's performance vs. guidance and "expectations" for this quarter? Also, I expect that after last year WS is hip to the effects of Eastern Hemisphere holidays for FQ2. What would you see as an aggressive guidance for the quarter?
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Dec 22, 2012 13:48:18 GMT -8
I have seen this theme elsewhere and it makes NO sense. Moving fabs and/or manufacturing will have no impact on Apple ability to innovate or to create anything "amazing". No one should be making investment decisions based on pipe dreams and fantasies like this. I will agree 90 % on the "innovation ability" aspect, but probably more. Until there's a factory groundbreaking, we have to step away from the stimulants. 100 % agreement on the "investment decision" aspect. Its way too far down the road to be on anybody's investment roadmap. I respectfully disagree. Apple has lost billions because the Samsungs of the world got to see their plans in batteries, screens and processors ahead of time. Also they lost billions from leaks of future products. The last two quarters are a perfect example. They can start by building the guts here. It may take a decade to build more of their future products but it will happen. One needs to invest looking far out into the future. One only cares about 24 months if all they do is buy and sell options. I had faith in Apple back in 2005 and they have done well beyond my projections because they delivered amazing technologies and services. We have seen nothing yet.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Dec 22, 2012 14:21:35 GMT -8
I respectfully disagree. Apple has lost billions because the Samsungs of the world got to see their plans in batteries, screens and processors ahead of time. Also they lost billions from leaks of future products. The last two quarters are a perfect example. They can start by building the guts here. It may take a decade to build more of their future products but it will happen. One needs to invest looking far out into the future. One only cares about 24 months if all they do is buy and sell options. I had faith in Apple back in 2005 and they have done well beyond my projections because they delivered amazing technologies and services. We have seen nothing yet. 1. It is valid to invest in Apple because one has faith in management and the rest of the company. If that is what you are saying, then fine. 2. However, you are drawing a linkage that does not exist. My point in bringing this up has nothing to do with short vs long term investing. You are propagating a fantasy when you suggest that there is a linkage between a US-based fab or manufacturing facility and Apple's ability to deliver "amazing" technologies and service. Whether or not Apple does that depends on their engineering prowess, not the fab or manufacturing location or who runs it. 3. Your reasons why Apple "lost billions" are also flat out wrong. There is no reason to believe that Samsung gained a thing by having insight into Apple's plans on commodity components like batteries and displays. Samsung BUILDS its own displays. They don't need to rip Apple off. In fact, Apple could likely learn a thing a two from Samsung re displays. Also, Samsung has access to state-of-the-art battery tech just like Apple. Apple buys batteries from third parties just like Samsung. 4. The "guts" are a commodity. Samsung has the same access to these commodities that Apple does. In fact, they build a lot of these components. Including processors. Samsung has achieved what they have by using stolen software from Google, and copying Apple's form factor. Not by any privileged access to the "guts", which are commodities. I am a long term investor in Apple too. But the stuff you are raising to support a long term view is technologically naive and misinformed.
|
|
|
Post by alice on Dec 22, 2012 14:33:09 GMT -8
I read this in an article regarding fiscal cliff: "Lawmakers vowed to return to the bargaining table before the end of 2012"
Will lawmakers really go back to work right after Xmas to resolve fiscal cliff before end of 2012?
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Dec 22, 2012 14:40:49 GMT -8
I respectfully disagree. Apple has lost billions because the Samsungs of the world got to see their plans in batteries, screens and processors ahead of time. Also they lost billions from leaks of future products. The last two quarters are a perfect example. They can start by building the guts here. It may take a decade to build more of their future products but it will happen. One needs to invest looking far out into the future. One only cares about 24 months if all they do is buy and sell options. I had faith in Apple back in 2005 and they have done well beyond my projections because they delivered amazing technologies and services. We have seen nothing yet. 1. It is valid to invest in Apple because one has faith in management and the rest of the company. If that is what you are saying, then fine. 2. However, you are drawing a linkage that does not exist. My point in bringing this up has nothing to do with short vs long term investing. You are propagating a fantasy when you suggest that there is a linkage between a US-based fab or manufacturing facility and Apple's ability to deliver "amazing" technologies and service. Whether or not Apple does that depends on their engineering prowess, not the fab or manufacturing location or who runs it. 3. Your reasons why Apple "lost billions" are also flat out wrong. There is no reason to believe that Samsung gained a thing by having insight into Apple's plans on commodity components like batteries and displays. Samsung BUILDS its own displays. They don't need to rip Apple off. In fact, Apple could likely learn a thing a two from Samsung re displays. Also, Samsung has access to state-of-the-art battery tech just like Apple. Apple buys batteries from third parties just like Samsung. 4. The "guts" are a commodity. Samsung has the same access to these commodities that Apple does. In fact, they build a lot of these components. Including processors. Samsung has achieved what they have by using stolen software from Google, and copying Apple's form factor. Not by any privileged access to the "guts", which are commodities. I am a long term investor in Apple too. But the stuff you are raising to support a long term view is technologically naive and misinformed. Lets agree to disagree. I am neither naive nor misinformed. There are a million advantages to building products here and many more disadvantages on allowing your competitors thousands of miles away to build your stuff. Samsung had crappy phones until Apple gave them the orders. They have build screens, batteries, and processors for Apple. Yes they were different then their own, but they learned a great deal from Apple. That knowledge lead to phones that are close to par in specs with Apple. Do you have any idea how many trips Apple engineers make to China and S. Korea to work on these parts? Those engineers get tired of 1 a.m. calls and long trips from their families. I have enough contacts with Apple folks to tell you that a few leave the company because of all the travel to China. Apple's products are not easy to design and put together. It takes a great deal of collaboration between designers, engineers and manufactures. Keeping their engineers happy is just as important as building products. All those leaks about everything that was in the iPhone 5 came from the same people who were building parts for Apple and themselves. It has hurt Apple a great deal. TC clearly pointed out in both conf. calls that speculation about future products killed iPhone sales in the 3rd quarter and iPad sales in the 4th quarter. Having more secret control over future products makes them more competitive. That control will improve secrecy but more importantly make the building process easier to manage. The future is robots and the advantage of the cheap Asian labor is quickly disappearing. It will take a decade for the transition to happen but it will. I invest in Apple because I look far off and it is not pipe dreams but simple understanding by reading everyday about this company and its ability to build amazing products.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on Dec 22, 2012 14:44:24 GMT -8
I read this in an article regarding fiscal cliff: "Lawmakers vowed to return to the bargaining table before the end of 2012" Will lawmakers really go back to work right after Xmas to resolve fiscal cliff before end of 2012? It is all a dog and pony show. We will go over the cliff and the market will punish us for a few days or weeks until it is resolved.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Dec 22, 2012 14:46:30 GMT -8
Absolutely and strongly.
|
|
|
Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 22, 2012 18:10:32 GMT -8
Called about 15 different apple walmarts and best buys. All sold out of mini minus a few 64gB available. Western PA
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 22, 2012 18:20:26 GMT -8
Expect even MORE shortages right up through the 25th, I bet. I'm pretty sure Apple's iPad mini launch isn't done yet. Supply constraints will continue, and that's OK. Tim Cook's comments next CC will be the key, because he's pretty upfront on how he feels about Apple meeting its production ramp objectives for a given product for a given quarter when asked.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2012 18:20:44 GMT -8
I am going to repost this Monday morning.
I was asked what data I use to determine that the selling is over. This is my response.
It's a sentiment metric. If selling pressure were to continue at high levels, you'd expect the Put/Call Ratio to be high. It is not.
Current P/C Ratio is .68:1. It has remained within 3 points of its low for 28 consecutive days while trending upward ever so slightly. Schaeffer does not provide sharper detail in the ratio, that is: 0.6812:1. Its a nuance thing but could be significant. All I know right know is that the nuance shows up in the chart, but not the data.
Anyway, going back as far as I can with historical data (2 years), there has not been a comparable period wherein the P/C Ratio has remained as low, for as long.
Put another way, since AAPL fell off its pedestal on Sept 21 ($705), OI has grown from 2,989,372 contracts to 4,588,089 contracts (+53%), with 91% of those new contracts being Calls (930,000 new Calls vs 91,000 new Puts).
That is decidedly Bullish, and given the proximity to end of year (tax selling) and January earnings, I think significant. I can't tell where those contracts are being written (expiry), but I'm working on it. Right now I'm just assuming that the overwhelming majority is near term (January earnings). Any other expiry doesn't make sense.
I think the market is prepping itself for an earnings beat of some significance, which would naturally involve an end to selling. I also believe that the institutions are going to weigh in during the next 2 weeks with heavier BUYING of AAPL (for the same reason as stated above).
That begs the question of how far AAPL can rebound. AAPL dropped $200 in 8 weeks. That wealth didn't just disappear, it just moved from investor A's pocket to investor B's pocket. That means that if investor B believes the future is very bright (and there are about 1800 institutional investors, holding ~67% of AAPL, that I would label investor B). A 3% uptick in overall institutional ownership in the next 4 weeks could do it, although I personally would not invest counting on that.
[Alice, I corrected some numbers between my response to you, and this post]
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 22, 2012 18:21:33 GMT -8
Ah, but how much of one? And vs. those pesky whisper numbers? Mid-$14 EPS is OK-to-good in my book, depending on how "intentional" the GM decline is.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2012 18:24:05 GMT -8
I read this in an article regarding fiscal cliff: "Lawmakers vowed to return to the bargaining table before the end of 2012" Will lawmakers really go back to work right after Xmas to resolve fiscal cliff before end of 2012? I think the deal is already in the bag. We are just waiting for the warring parties to complete their constituent posturing before announcing the deal. After all, they have to appear to be fighting for their side, even though what must be done is as obvious as the wart on the end of their collective noses.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2012 18:28:01 GMT -8
Called about 15 different apple walmarts and best buys. All sold out of mini minus a few 64gB available. Western PA I bought one last week for my wife's birthday, was able to walk in and buy a 64gig wifi black - everything else sold out.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2012 18:35:48 GMT -8
A negative spin: I know a gullible college aged girl that recently went in to a Best Buy and came out with a (gasp) samesung even though she went in wanting a iPhone. She said the workers there really sold the galaxy hard saying it was better and that they even have the galaxy. So she believed them(her first smart phone purchase) A shame because as most of us know once you are on an iPhone you never wanna switch.. Samsung spends absurd amounts (billions!) on reseller bonuses - whereas apple spends zero. It's no surprise that any store employee pushes Samsung - as the employee simply gets paid more when he sells them. Those reseller employees simply do not care about the customer, it is simply a choice between a $20 bonus (Samsung) vs. $0 bonus (apple).
|
|
|
Post by jeffi on Dec 22, 2012 18:59:44 GMT -8
I will agree 90 % on the "innovation ability" aspect, but probably more. Until there's a factory groundbreaking, we have to step away from the stimulants. 100 % agreement on the "investment decision" aspect. Its way too far down the road to be on anybody's investment roadmap. I respectfully disagree. Apple has lost billions because the Samsungs of the world got to see their plans in batteries, screens and processors ahead of time. Also they lost billions from leaks of future products. The last two quarters are a perfect example. They can start by building the guts here. It may take a decade to build more of their future products but it will happen. One needs to invest looking far out into the future. One only cares about 24 months if all they do is buy and sell options. I had faith in Apple back in 2005 and they have done well beyond my projections because they delivered amazing technologies and services. We have seen nothing yet. Excellent observation!
|
|
|
Post by rosie on Dec 22, 2012 20:09:13 GMT -8
Apple is doing many subtle things that I've never noticed in the past. Today I received a fairly in depth survey regarding my reasons for purchasing an iMac with a lot of specificity about which came first...the chicken or the egg...or the iPad/iPhone/iMac. I can't link you to the survey because once it's answered you can't access it again.
I live in the boonies, and have not yet visited an Apple store, but by ordering new stuff minutes after midnight I have acquired the latest iPhone, mini, and iMac in fairly short order time as each device became available for order/purchase.
I imagine the 11th hour impulse shoppers will either buy gift cards or retina iPads as gifts if they can't get their hands on a mini.
As I've mentioned before, I am not new to Apple, but am a new investor, and the back and forth on this board has made my journey since April a lot more understandable.
For that I thank you all, in all countries and of all mindsets and political persuasions. We don't have to agree to learn from one another.
Have a great holiday season celebrating what is important to you and here's to a New Year where $520 is a distant memory!
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Dec 23, 2012 3:12:32 GMT -8
Apple is doing many subtle things that I've never noticed in the past. Today I received a fairly in depth survey regarding my reasons for purchasing an iMac with a lot of specificity about which came first...the chicken or the egg...or the iPad/iPhone/iMac. I can't link you to the survey because once it's answered you can't access it again. I live in the boonies, and have not yet visited an Apple store, but by ordering new stuff minutes after midnight I have acquired the latest iPhone, mini, and iMac in fairly short order time as each device became available for order/purchase. I imagine the 11th hour impulse shoppers will either buy gift cards or retina iPads as gifts if they can't get their hands on a mini. As I've mentioned before, I am not new to Apple, but am a new investor, and the back and forth on this board has made my journey since April a lot more understandable. For that I thank you all, in all countries and of all mindsets and political persuasions. We don't have to agree to learn from one another. Have a great holiday season celebrating what is important to you and here's to a New Year where $520 is a distant memory! +1
|
|
|
Post by rickag on Dec 23, 2012 5:51:37 GMT -8
I am going to repost this Monday morning.
I was asked what data I use to determine that the selling is over. This is my response.It's a sentiment metric. If selling pressure were to continue at high levels, you'd expect the Put/Call Ratio to be high. It is not. Current P/C Ratio is .68:1. It has remained within 3 points of its low for 28 consecutive days while trending upward ever so slightly. Schaeffer does not provide sharper detail in the ratio, that is: 0.6812:1. Its a nuance thing but could be significant. All I know right know is that the nuance shows up in the chart, but not the data. Anyway, going back as far as I can with historical data (2 years), there has not been a comparable period wherein the P/C Ratio has remained as low, for as long. Put another way, since AAPL fell off its pedestal on Sept 21 ($705), OI has grown from 2,989,372 contracts to 4,588,089 contracts (+53%), with 91% of those new contracts being Calls (930,000 new Calls vs 91,000 new Puts). That is decidedly Bullish, and given the proximity to end of year (tax selling) and January earnings, I think significant. I can't tell where those contracts are being written (expiry), but I'm working on it. Right now I'm just assuming that the overwhelming majority is near term (January earnings). Any other expiry doesn't make sense. I think the market is prepping itself for an earnings beat of some significance, which would naturally involve an end to selling. I also believe that the institutions are going to weigh in during the next 2 weeks with heavier BUYING of AAPL (for the same reason as stated above). That begs the question of how far AAPL can rebound. AAPL dropped $200 in 8 weeks. That wealth didn't just disappear, it just moved from investor A's pocket to investor B's pocket. That means that if investor B believes the future is very bright (and there are about 1800 institutional investors, holding ~67% of AAPL, that I would label investor B). A 3% uptick in overall institutional ownership in the next 4 weeks could do it, although I personally would not invest counting on that. [Alice, I corrected some numbers between my response to you, and this post] Thank you for the information and explanation.
|
|