|
Post by hledgard on Dec 23, 2012 5:55:05 GMT -8
I know that many in this forum like to beat up Samsung, and so do I, But I spent some time at Best Buy yesterday and also talked to people. Really, there are some VERY nice phones built by others. Some are very light and thin, the interface is cool, and a bigger screen is nice.
Many users now want a bigger screen, for a Smartphone is used more for Smart than phone.
I know they copied Apple, but in some ways they are ahead now!
|
|
coma
Member
Posts: 522
|
Post by coma on Dec 23, 2012 6:30:38 GMT -8
Really, there are some VERY nice phones built by others. Some are very light and thin, the interface is cool, and a bigger screen is nice. Many users now want a bigger screen, for a Smartphone is used more for Smart than phone. I know they copied Apple, but in some ways they are ahead now! Heretic, Infidel . . . off with his head.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 23, 2012 6:32:10 GMT -8
I know that many in this forum like to beat up Samsung, and so do I, But I spent some time at Best Buy yesterday and also talked to people. Really, there are some VERY nice phones built by others. Some are very light and thin, the interface is cool, and a bigger screen is nice. Many users now want a bigger screen, for a Smartphone is used more for Smart than phone. I know they copied Apple, but in some ways they are ahead now! Ahead a because of a bigger screen? Yeah, okay. I still think people prefer phones that they can fit in their pocket.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2012 6:44:06 GMT -8
It's easy to differentiate when your competition makes ONE PHONE.
If people want phablets (read: probably less likely to buy any tablet)? Fine. Apple won't do that kind of convergence. And yesterday I was able to post to AFB2 in a shopping line with one hand. Try that on a hugephone.
To the extent Samsung is being creative/not crossing lines - hooray for competition! Apple has always been willing to suit up against anyone. And lawsuits aren't Apple's lifeblood - making stuff is.
I love competitive markets. The consumer pretty much always wins!
|
|
|
Post by jeffi on Dec 23, 2012 6:48:11 GMT -8
I know that many in this forum like to beat up Samsung, and so do I, But I spent some time at Best Buy yesterday and also talked to people. Really, there are some VERY nice phones built by others. Some are very light and thin, the interface is cool, and a bigger screen is nice. Many users now want a bigger screen, for a Smartphone is used more for Smart than phone. I know they copied Apple, but in some ways they are ahead now! Ahead a because of a bigger screen? Yeah, okay. I still think people prefer phones that they can fit in their pocket. No, some people just prefer the bigger form factor (not me). In that regard, they are ahead. Otherwise, they are an acceptable imitation to some. Of course, Samesung's software is inferior (OS and applications).
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 23, 2012 6:54:54 GMT -8
Went to my local Apple store yesterday at 5:30pm to get an AppleCare contract in my iPhone (so there's 100 bucks of 100% margin for ya). Anyway the store was crowded, really crowded. Usually I just walk to various parts of the store unhindered but this time I found myself playing the maneuver and wait game on way to the sections. Another interesting observation was they had set up a few tables at the entrance with stacked with popular products in boxes so people who knew exactly what they want could just grab and go. Those tables were packed with people buying everything from cables to iPads. I thought when I got home how many other retailers wish they had that problem where their products are so popular they have to stack some of them at the door to enable people buy them without coming completely into the store.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2012 6:57:48 GMT -8
It's the holiday express shopping line. Been around a while, and a smart seasonal add to the retail stores.
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
|
Post by Ted on Dec 23, 2012 7:29:33 GMT -8
I know that many in this forum like to beat up Samsung, and so do I, But I spent some time at Best Buy yesterday and also talked to people. Really, there are some VERY nice phones built by others. Some are very light and thin, the interface is cool, and a bigger screen is nice. Many users now want a bigger screen, for a Smartphone is used more for Smart than phone. I know they copied Apple, but in some ways they are ahead now! OK, so besides the big screen, hledgard, how are Android phones "ahead?" I've been reading this sentiment a fair bit lately and I wanna know exactly what you mean? Swype for typing? Split screen apps? Bump to "share?" Wha? I respect yr opinion, but want some specificity pul-ease.... Thx.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Dec 23, 2012 7:56:31 GMT -8
What do y'all think about an Apple television presented at WWDC this year? I was just designing a potential release schedule, and it got me thinking.
FQ2: nothing FQ3 (WWDC at tail end): MacBooks, Apple television (hopefully in '14 this falls in FQ2) FQ4: iPhone 5S FQ1: iPad 5th gen, iPad mini 2nd gen w/ Retina
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 23, 2012 7:57:17 GMT -8
Thank you to burgess and jd for their retail reports and Gregg's info on put/call ratios.
I'll be watching for info on general economic reports.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 23, 2012 9:12:04 GMT -8
Thank you to burgess and jd for their retail reports and Gregg's info on put/call ratios. I'll be watching for info on general economic reports. What's a little odd about the P/C ratio during this decline is I haven't seen it go to 1. Which means there has not been a time when there were more puts than calls. Usually in a downward correction you see a large amount of puts (very similar to a capitulation ) right before an upswing. I could be wrong as I don't track it daily (more like every few days). The ratio had moved but not to the point over 1 or over. Watching this on real crap days the question I couldn't answer is who are the buyers of all these calls. This is all predicated On the assumption that option buyers/actions are more a leading indicator. Any thoughts on this welcomed as full disclosure I haven't tracked the P/C ratio on any other stock as I have in the past 2 mos on Apple.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 23, 2012 9:23:09 GMT -8
Actually just thought: maybe all the call action is on Covered Calls. That would certainly explain an increase in volume but by how much I don't know.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 23, 2012 9:34:13 GMT -8
Thank you to burgess and jd for their retail reports and Gregg's info on put/call ratios. I'll be watching for info on general economic reports. What's a little odd about the P/C ratio during this decline is I haven't seen it go to 1. Which means there has not been a time when there were more puts than calls. Usually in a downward correction you see a large amount of puts (very similar to a capitulation ) right before an upswing. I could be wrong as I don't track it daily (more like every few days). The ratio had moved but not to the point over 1 or over. Watching this on real crap days the question I couldn't answer is who are the buyers of all these calls. This is all predicated On the assumption that option buyers/actions are more a leading indicator. Any thoughts on this welcomed as full disclosure I haven't tracked the P/C ratio on any other stock as I have in the past 2 mos on Apple. I've had trouble drawing any correlations from the data because you can be a bull or a bear on either side of the market with spreads. Bear call spreads (credit) / bear put spreads (debit). Bull put spreads (credit) / bear put spreads (debit).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 9:36:29 GMT -8
What's a little odd about the P/C ratio during this decline is I haven't seen it go to 1. Which means there has not been a time when there were more puts than calls. Usually in a downward correction you see a large amount of puts (very similar to a capitulation ) right before an upswing. I could be wrong as I don't track it daily (more like every few days). The ratio had moved but not to the point over 1 or over. Watching this on real crap days the question I couldn't answer is who are the buyers of all these calls. This is all predicated On the assumption that option buyers/actions are more a leading indicator. Any thoughts on this welcomed as full disclosure I haven't tracked the P/C ratio on any other stock as I have in the past 2 mos on Apple. In the first two months of 2011 the Put/Call Ratio went as high as 1.13:1 on two different occasions (just before and just after January earnings). It was then, and is now, my contention that Apple missed its January and April numbers that year. Then again, right after October earnings Put/Call Ratio went up to 1.09:1. It was then, and is now, my contention that Apple missed its October earnings that year. For the last three years Apple has been missing its quarterlies about half the time (seven of twelve quarters). This weakened investor sentiment, culminating with a collapse of sentiment when Apple missed FQ3/12 and FQ4/12 numbers.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 23, 2012 9:39:53 GMT -8
Gregg, I concur with sentiment underlying price action. Greed and fear.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 9:42:16 GMT -8
Without artificial suppressors holding AAPL back, AAPL will rebound about $100 (maybe more if the institutions believe Apple is going to exceed expectations) prior to earnings. Gregg, what are YOUR current feelings about Apple's performance vs. guidance and "expectations" for this quarter? Also, I expect that after last year WS is hip to the effects of Eastern Hemisphere holidays for FQ2. What would you see as an aggressive guidance for the quarter? Just watching market action, without giving any weight to supporting reports on share (of which there are plenty), I feel Apple is going to exceed expectations. That said I have lowered my own EPS estimate (modification of formula, not sentiment) to $16.80 from $17.05.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Dec 23, 2012 9:42:54 GMT -8
On the road, en route to in-laws, hubby driving. I love my iPad!
|
|
|
Post by alice on Dec 23, 2012 9:47:44 GMT -8
I am going to repost this Monday morning.
I was asked what data I use to determine that the selling is over. This is my response.It's a sentiment metric. If selling pressure were to continue at high levels, you'd expect the Put/Call Ratio to be high. It is not. Current P/C Ratio is .68:1. It has remained within 3 points of its low for 28 consecutive days while trending upward ever so slightly. Schaeffer does not provide sharper detail in the ratio, that is: 0.6812:1. Its a nuance thing but could be significant. All I know right know is that the nuance shows up in the chart, but not the data. Anyway, going back as far as I can with historical data (2 years), there has not been a comparable period wherein the P/C Ratio has remained as low, for as long. Put another way, since AAPL fell off its pedestal on Sept 21 ($705), OI has grown from 2,989,372 contracts to 4,588,089 contracts (+53%), with 91% of those new contracts being Calls (930,000 new Calls vs 91,000 new Puts). That is decidedly Bullish, and given the proximity to end of year (tax selling) and January earnings, I think significant. I can't tell where those contracts are being written (expiry), but I'm working on it. Right now I'm just assuming that the overwhelming majority is near term (January earnings). Any other expiry doesn't make sense. I think the market is prepping itself for an earnings beat of some significance, which would naturally involve an end to selling. I also believe that the institutions are going to weigh in during the next 2 weeks with heavier BUYING of AAPL (for the same reason as stated above). That begs the question of how far AAPL can rebound. AAPL dropped $200 in 8 weeks. That wealth didn't just disappear, it just moved from investor A's pocket to investor B's pocket. That means that if investor B believes the future is very bright (and there are about 1800 institutional investors, holding ~67% of AAPL, that I would label investor B). A 3% uptick in overall institutional ownership in the next 4 weeks could do it, although I personally would not invest counting on that. [Alice, I corrected some numbers between my response to you, and this post] Gregg, from what I read low put call ratio is seen as bearish. More call buying than put buying is bearish. It says is a contrarian indicator. Here is the link: stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:put_call_ratio
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2012 9:47:47 GMT -8
$16.80? I view that as impossible. For the moment anyway (I start conservative and work from there.)
How many iPhones and iPads are you at? Don't forget normalizing too.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 9:52:26 GMT -8
I received a PM from Alice in response to my statements regarding Put/Call Ratios. I got the biggest kick out of her response. Alice actually did the math. She tested my thesis, and she found it wanting. That little act gave me goose bumps.
Thank you Alice, thank you, thank you, thank you.
The error Alice found was made possible by an unscheduled visit by 3 great-nephews (4 to 11 years), who of course demanded attention from their "favorite great-uncle".
Alice, I measure many relationships in my spreadsheets. The data I provided yesterday, regarding actual Call and Put volume since September 11, was obtained from one column over to far.
Without distractions, I readily saw this error (thanks again for pointing it out).
The correct data should have read : Put another way, since AAPL fell off its pedestal on Sept 21 ($705), OI has grown from 2,989,372 contracts to 4,588,089 contracts (+53%), with 73% of those new contracts being Calls (1,174,000 new Calls vs 425,000 new Puts).
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 9:55:41 GMT -8
This forum should give Alice a hearty round of applause.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 23, 2012 10:00:55 GMT -8
Packers vs. Titans is nearly underway.
Meanwhile, I got a Craigslist spam with an embedded calendar invite for a wedding invitation.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2012 10:03:56 GMT -8
Way to go Alice! Learning by doing!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 10:06:28 GMT -8
Alice, reread the explanation provided by Stockcharts. The Put/Call Ratio is an indicator that shows put volume relative to call volume. Put options are used to hedge against market weakness or bet on a decline. Call options are used to hedge against market strength or bet on advance. The Put/Call Ratio is above 1 when put volume exceeds call volume and below 1 when call volume exceeds put volume. Typically, this indicator is used to gauge market sentiment. Sentiment is deemed excessively bearish when the Put/Call Ratio is trading at relatively high levels, and excessively bullish when at relatively low levels.The passage regarding market sentiment is a biggie. Had we been paying closer attention to the Put/Call Ratio, we would have benefitted from the decline from $705 down to $630, instead of getting clobbered by it.
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Dec 23, 2012 10:24:58 GMT -8
Thank you to burgess and jd for their retail reports and Gregg's info on put/call ratios. I'll be watching for info on general economic reports. What's a little odd about the P/C ratio during this decline is I haven't seen it go to 1. Which means there has not been a time when there were more puts than calls. Usually in a downward correction you see a large amount of puts (very similar to a capitulation ) right before an upswing. I could be wrong as I don't track it daily (more like every few days). The ratio had moved but not to the point over 1 or over. Watching this on real crap days the question I couldn't answer is who are the buyers of all these calls. This is all predicated On the assumption that option buyers/actions are more a leading indicator. Any thoughts on this welcomed as full disclosure I haven't tracked the P/C ratio on any other stock as I have in the past 2 mos on Apple. Perhaps the reason that it hasn't gone to 1 is that the price has yet to bottom.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 23, 2012 10:29:25 GMT -8
What's a little odd about the P/C ratio during this decline is I haven't seen it go to 1. Which means there has not been a time when there were more puts than calls. Usually in a downward correction you see a large amount of puts (very similar to a capitulation ) right before an upswing. I could be wrong as I don't track it daily (more like every few days). The ratio had moved but not to the point over 1 or over. Watching this on real crap days the question I couldn't answer is who are the buyers of all these calls. This is all predicated On the assumption that option buyers/actions are more a leading indicator. Any thoughts on this welcomed as full disclosure I haven't tracked the P/C ratio on any other stock as I have in the past 2 mos on Apple. Perhaps the reason that it hasn't gone to 1 is that the price has yet to bottom. Yes sometime the simplest answer is the answer. I would add however even on days with the lowest drop, it still basically didn't move .
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 23, 2012 10:36:18 GMT -8
I have thought perhaps when the theory of more puts bear, more calls bull was suggested "Back in the Day" such complex options trades were not available or not popular therefore today the fact you can make a bearish trade with calls for instance (and vice versa) could skew the theory. Truly I don't know but right now based on what I do know and have observed it looks like that. Then again the most bullish trade you can make is a plain long call and the most bearish a plain put with the strike prices being further commitment to either position.
|
|
|
Post by fas550 on Dec 23, 2012 10:47:16 GMT -8
Anyone know how a Bull Call Spread is depicted as a call transaction that is used on the call side factor of the P/C ratio? How about the same for a Bear Call Spread? It if you did either trade with say 10 contracts (open) would it show up as 20 in volume? Also when they are "Closed" is that also part of the call volume?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2012 10:50:00 GMT -8
What's a little odd about the P/C ratio during this decline is I haven't seen it go to 1. Which means there has not been a time when there were more puts than calls. Usually in a downward correction you see a large amount of puts (very similar to a capitulation ) right before an upswing. I could be wrong as I don't track it daily (more like every few days). The ratio had moved but not to the point over 1 or over. Watching this on real crap days the question I couldn't answer is who are the buyers of all these calls. This is all predicated On the assumption that option buyers/actions are more a leading indicator. Any thoughts on this welcomed as full disclosure I haven't tracked the P/C ratio on any other stock as I have in the past 2 mos on Apple. Perhaps the reason that it hasn't gone to 1 is that the price has yet to bottom. You're going the wrong direction. Going to 1 is a function of an equal number of Calls and Puts being written. That is Bearish, and has not been tyhe case for over a month. The low Put/Call Ratio over the past 2 years is .62:1. This current sell off has Puts going down to .65:1, then rising ever so slowly to .68:1. AAPL is definitely in BULL sentiment territory, at least among those that have increased Open Interest by 53%, writing 1,175,000 Calls and 425,000 Puts along the way (nearly 2.75:1 in favor of Calls).
|
|
|
Post by alxyz on Dec 23, 2012 10:52:44 GMT -8
The Put/Call Ratio is an indicator that shows put volume relative to call volume. Put options are used to hedge against market weakness or bet on a decline. Call options are used to hedge against market strength or bet on advance. The Put/Call Ratio is above 1 when put volume exceeds call volume and below 1 when call volume exceeds put volume. Typically, this indicator is used to gauge market sentiment. Sentiment is deemed excessively bearish when the Put/Call Ratio is trading at relatively high levels, and excessively bullish when at relatively low levels.
Where is the quickest and simplest place to find the put/call ratio for aapl?
|
|