chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on May 18, 2019 7:24:53 GMT -8
|
|
bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
|
Post by bud777 on May 18, 2019 15:17:59 GMT -8
i am having trouble with the link to PED's article
|
|
|
Post by 2centsplus on May 18, 2019 16:51:06 GMT -8
Apologies if I shouldn’t have set your post to poetry yesterday Lstream, just thought it was good!
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on May 19, 2019 5:09:08 GMT -8
The continued and almost non-stop attacks on the President has no place on this board. It is ruining the integrity of what this board stood for in the past.
I may even agree with some of the opinions, but these opinions have no place here. I am here to learn about Apple and AAPL.
If I want to read attacks on Trump, there is always the Washington Post. And if I want to read about his accomplishments, there is always Fox News.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on May 19, 2019 5:35:55 GMT -8
i am having trouble with the link to PED's article Fixed; apologies. I hope you found it with a simple web search.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on May 19, 2019 6:16:58 GMT -8
The continued and almost non-stop attacks on the President has no place on this board. It is ruining the integrity of what this board stood for in the past. So you feel that the recent tariff moves are irrelevant to Apple/AAPL?
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 19, 2019 9:03:09 GMT -8
The continued and almost non-stop attacks on the President has no place on this board. It is ruining the integrity of what this board stood for in the past. I may even agree with some of the opinions, but these opinions have no place here. I am here to learn about Apple and AAPL. If I want to read attacks on Trump, there is always the Washington Post. And if I want to read about his accomplishments, there is always Fox News. Not sure why you let this bother you so much. What he is doing is of direct relevance to Apple. It is unrealistic to think that misguided trade war and tariff love is not going to provoke a strong reaction, from people who are being financially damaged by ridiculous policy championed by an individual who deserves zero respect. Being President does not exempt someone from criticism and ridicule when it is so clearly deserved. Not in a free society. At least not yet.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on May 19, 2019 10:21:43 GMT -8
The continued and almost non-stop attacks on the President has no place on this board. It is ruining the integrity of what this board stood for in the past. This board can only reflect the integrity of its members, and I'm curious, since you're a long-time member of AFB, did you get this indignant several years back about constant attacks upon another long-time member of this board? Would you have considered it acceptable to have a AFB thread labeled, "Responses to hledgard", existing solely for personal attacks upon you, even if it was in the Dungeon? And would you consider it unbelievably juvenile of a member to *bump* that thread up after it had lain dormant for many months? I may even agree with some of the opinions, but these opinions have no place here. I am here to learn about Apple and AAPL. Great! You're in the right place! As others have stated, Apple/AAPL cannot be accurately discussed these days without including the reasons why AAPL and the market in general is being so badly buffeted by Trump's tariffs and other foolish actions. If I want to read attacks on Trump, there is always the Washington Post. And if I want to read about his accomplishments, there is always Fox News. I'm sure that's correct, but if you want to read discussions of Trump's actions and how they affect Apple/AAPL, there's no better place than AFB, IMO.
|
|
benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
|
Post by benoir on May 19, 2019 11:12:02 GMT -8
Tim Cook speachCook is fantastic. I have seen huge gains in my investment in AAPL with Cook at the helm and it’s been an investment with increasing corporate responsibility and ethical behaviour. I hope many others follow Apple’s lead, which demonstrably proves that profit and environmental and social sustainability principles can coexist.
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
|
Post by Ted on May 19, 2019 11:32:56 GMT -8
The continued and almost non-stop attacks on the President has no place on this board. It is ruining the integrity of what this board stood for in the past. I may even agree with some of the opinions, but these opinions have no place here. I am here to learn about Apple and AAPL. If I want to read attacks on Trump, there is always the Washington Post. And if I want to read about his accomplishments, there is always Fox News. I try to stay out of the fray on the daily board when talk gets political. It’s too easy to get angry because of the strong opinions involved, but I will say this on the weekend thread . . . I recall the right wing faction on the board was doing victory laps and making predictions of greatness when Trump was elected. At that time when impeachment talk first came up I responded to some crap JD wrote (“Democrats are just sore because they lost the election…“), and got called a libtard and other nonsense. It goes both ways here. And when you have the most intentionally divisive, norm-breaking, shoot-from-the-hip, unqualified loudmouth ever trying to run the country, this sort of freedom of expression iis to be expected. Trump is not immune from criticism here on the board - as long as the comments are directly relevant to AAPL - and not too over the top, I would think.
|
|
benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
|
Post by benoir on May 19, 2019 11:58:04 GMT -8
It goes both ways here. And when you have the most intentionally divisive, norm-breaking, shoot-from-the-hip, unqualified loudmouth ever trying to run the country, this sort of freedom of expression iis to be expected. Trump is not immune from criticism here on the board - as long as the comments are directly relevant to AAPL - and not too over the top, I would think. The posturing by the Trump Administration could have a material impact on Apple’s exports. It is entirely relevant to investors here. I can’t quite understand why some are sensitive to criticism of Trump when Trump criticises, whomever, without sensitivity, consideration of appropriateness or due regard for the consequences of his utterances.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
|
Post by Dave on May 19, 2019 12:18:43 GMT -8
Has anyone here considered the one person that has the most control over Apples future and why the company is in the situation it finds itself in today? I'm referring to the CEO, Tim Cook. It's because of Tim Cook that most of Apples manufacturing is located in a communist country that is notorious for its theft of intellectual properties, labor abuse, and environmental abusses. This has been common knowledge for decades but he continued to invest more of Apples resources into this dangerous pit. Very curious, for a company that takes pride in keeping its secrets is so willing to expose those very secrets. Who knows how many billions of dollars have been forever lost to Apples competition. I think the buck stops at Tim. But he's great at organizing parades.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on May 19, 2019 12:51:27 GMT -8
Has anyone here considered the one person that has the most control over Apples future and why the company is in the situation it finds itself in today? The situation it finds itself in today? Do you meant the first $1 trillion publicly-traded company and one that earns the great majority of smart phone profit world wide? That situation? I'm referring to the CEO, Tim Cook. It's because of Tim Cook that most of Apples manufacturing is located in a communist country that is notorious for its theft of intellectual properties, labor abuse, and environmental abusses. This has been common knowledge for decades but he continued to invest more of Apples resources into this dangerous pit. Very curious, for a company that takes pride in keeping its secrets is so willing to expose those very secrets. Who knows how many billions of dollars have been forever lost to Apples competition. I think the buck stops at Tim. Why Apple builds iPhones (and everything else) in ChinaWhen President Obama famously dined with a handful of Silicon Valley titans a year ago, he had a question for Apple chief Steve Jobs, say Charles Duhigg and Keith Bradsher in The New York Times: What would it take to make iPhones in the United States? Jobs' answer was unambiguous and sobering: "Those jobs aren't coming back." Now, in a lengthy story, Duhigg and Bradsher explain — based on conversations with executives at Apple and its tech rivals, economists, and government officials — why Apple and just about every player in the consumer-electronics universe has all but given up on "Made in the USA." Here, a concise look at the secret to China's success: What does China have that America lacks?Quite a lot. China has more mid-level engineers, a more flexible workforce, and gigantic factories that can ramp up production at the drop of a hat. China also offers tech firms a one-stop solution. "The entire supply chain is in China now," a former high-ranking Apple executive tells The Times. "You need a thousand rubber gaskets? That's the factory next door. You need a million screws? That factory is a block away. You need that screw made a little bit different? It will take three hours." It's not just about cheaper wages?No. Wages actually aren't that big a part of the cost of making consumer electronics, according to The Times. Paying American wages to build iPhones would add only about $65 to the retail price of each handset, according to analysts' estimates. That's an amount Apple could likely afford. And in fact, China no longer offers rock-bottom wages. But when it did, it used that window "to innovate the entire way supply chains work," says Sarah Lacy at PandoDaily. China is now "a place other countries can beat on sheer cost, but not on speed, flexibility, and know-how." What does China's competitive edge look like in practice?One example from The Times article: When Jobs decided just a month before the iPhone hit markets to replace a scratch-prone plastic screen with a glass one, a Foxconn factory in China woke up about 8,000 workers when the glass screens arrived at midnight, and the workers were assembling 10,000 iPhones a day within 96 hours. Another example: Apple had originally estimated that it would take nine months to hire the 8,700 qualified industrial engineers needed to oversee production of the iPhone; in China, it took 15 days. Anecdotes like that leave you "feeling almost impressed by the no-holds-barred capabilities of these manufacturing plants," says Edward Moyer at CNET News, "impressed and queasy at the same time." But he's great at organizing parades. He's also great at leading a company that's made many on AFB far wealthier than they ever imagined they would be, so there's that. It's surprising to me to find an Apple investor that's so critical of Tim Cook. Not that I don't read *plenty* of negative comments regarding Tim Cook but they're normally written by folks who aren't invested in AAPL.
|
|
|
Post by mercel on May 19, 2019 12:56:24 GMT -8
As a reminder, the March earnings call included numerous comments about China and its impact on the March quarter and June guidance. Recent tweets from POTUS are now casting a shadow on those comments, which is no doubt pressuring AAPL. You can't separate the two. And if you're watching Faux News, you are very likely missing out on what's really going on in the world and the related effect on our favorite fruit company. Information is power. Ignorance may be bliss, but it's antithetical to making money.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 19, 2019 13:00:08 GMT -8
Has anyone here considered the one person that has the most control over Apples future and why the company is in the situation it finds itself in today? I'm referring to the CEO, Tim Cook. It's because of Tim Cook that most of Apples manufacturing is located in a communist country that is notorious for its theft of intellectual properties, labor abuse, and environmental abusses. This has been common knowledge for decades but he continued to invest more of Apples resources into this dangerous pit. Very curious, for a company that takes pride in keeping its secrets is so willing to expose those very secrets. Who knows how many billions of dollars have been forever lost to Apples competition. I think the buck stops at Tim. But he's great at organizing parades. There is so much wrong with this on how the tech industry works in this post, I don’t even know where to start. Maybe when I have more time, I will take a shot. One quick point - total double standard bias being applied against Apple. AGAIN.
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on May 19, 2019 13:33:54 GMT -8
It is not the criticism that is offensive. It is the tone. It is fine to say one disagrees with an action. But to say "this idiot" or some such thing that is offensive.
It is fine to say that Tim Cook should not run Apple. But to disparage him like "Tim Cook has no clue or is ignorant" is offensive.
The statement above by Benoir "The posturing by the Trump Administration could have a material impact on Apple’s exports. It is entirely relevant to investors here." is fine. Not at all offensive. Actually nice !
|
|
|
Post by mercel on May 19, 2019 19:59:16 GMT -8
Highly recommend Frontline’s report on USA and China trade impasse. Sobering.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 19, 2019 20:31:17 GMT -8
All this sudden concern about trade wars and Trump affecting Apple.
Please read my posts from Sept to Dec.
I refer you to exhibit A in Oct about slowing sales then Exhibit B back in November about China and then Exhibit C in January when China confirmed via re stating of earnings that they can bring Apple to its knees in 30 days. When your employer the gov of China says you are fired if you show up with an iPhone or here is $200 go buy the Chinese brand, you will pay a price.
WS is pumping the stock up so the big boys can cash out. Institutional ownership is only going up in the last 2 years because of buybacks. Smart money is getting out.
My posts back in Nov in why TC should be fired for placing all of manufacturing in China.
Concerns about impact and blaming Trump does not change the fact that when the Chinese strike back we will pay as a company
Never mind things are slowing down and Apple overpriced most of their items with TC as the leader.
See you at 97 a share by June 2020.
I am all cash with smaller positions in weekly gambling.
|
|
|
Post by mercel on May 19, 2019 20:37:52 GMT -8
All this sudden concern about trade wars and Trump affecting Apple. Please read my posts from Sept to Dec. I refer you to exhibit A in Oct about slowing sales then Exhibit B back in November about China and then Exhibit C in January when China confirmed via re stating of earnings that they can bring Apple to its knees in 30 days. When your employer the gov of China says you are fired if you show up with an iPhone or here is $200 go buy the Chinese brand, you will pay a price. WS is pumping the stock up so the big boys can cash out. Institutional ownership is only going up in the last 2 years because of buybacks. Smart money is getting out. My posts back in Nov in why TC should be fired for placing all of manufacturing in China. Concerns about impact and blaming Trump does not change the fact that when the Chinese strike back we will pay as a company Never mind things are slowing down and Apple overpriced most of their items with TC as the leader. See you at 97 a share by June 2020. I am all cash with smaller positions in weekly gambling. Sponge, there’s treatment available for bipolar disorder.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 19, 2019 21:03:35 GMT -8
Seems that way but if you look back at fundamentals for the last 10 years we have hit a p/e of 9 several times.
Every time there was some factor like Great Recession 2009, margins 2013, slowing iPhone sales 2016. Now the excuse is Trump and China. Put EPS is a fact and sentiment is also a fact.
Just smart and patient enough to weather this storm.
Am a little worried it may last longer then we expect since it will take a few years to get out of China.
|
|
benoir
fire starter
*
Posts: 1,318
|
Post by benoir on May 19, 2019 21:09:47 GMT -8
Sponge... I don’t understand your signature, “Invest in Apple and give yourself an early retirement”, ...when you say you are all cash?
You just seem so bearish on AAPL now.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 19, 2019 21:19:06 GMT -8
Sponge... I don’t understand your signature, “Invest in Apple and give yourself an early retirement”, ...when you say you are all cash? You just seem so bearish on AAPL now. Made the mistake several times by being bullish without looking at Fundamentals. Still believe in the company and its best days are in the future. Never really retired since I am plenty busy. But a few swing trades and I will be able to do what I want. I follow two simple rules. Any money made from stock I can live off of. Any money made from options can only be used for 5 things. Pay off long term debt (over 5 years) Donate Reinvent in aapl Reinvest in options Save for long term Can’t use to buy material goods or food or any other necessities
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on May 20, 2019 9:25:07 GMT -8
Seems that way but if you look back at fundamentals for the last 10 years we have hit a p/e of 9 several times. Every time there was some factor like Great Recession 2009, margins 2013, slowing iPhone sales 2016. Now the excuse is Trump and China. Put EPS is a fact and sentiment is also a fact. Just smart and patient enough to weather this storm. Wait, weather it from "all cash"? Am a little worried it may last longer then we expect since it will take a few years to get out of China.I'm not sure where you come up with your predictions, sponge, but I guessed it may be the online, Magic Eight Ball: The Magic Eight BallFollowing that hunch, I decided to check out my hypothesis and got the same answer you did. Scary. However, despite that overwhelmingly convincing evidence, I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest Apple won't be getting out of China within the next decade.
|
|
|
Post by david on May 20, 2019 10:32:50 GMT -8
Has anyone here considered the one person that has the most control over Apples future and why the company is in the situation it finds itself in today? I'm referring to the CEO, Tim Cook. It's because of Tim Cook that most of Apples manufacturing is located in a communist country that is notorious for its theft of intellectual properties, labor abuse, and environmental abusses. This has been common knowledge for decades but he continued to invest more of Apples resources into this dangerous pit. Very curious, for a company that takes pride in keeping its secrets is so willing to expose those very secrets. Who knows how many billions of dollars have been forever lost to Apples competition. I think the buck stops at Tim. But he's great at organizing parades. How’s that go, “deny, deflect, distract”?
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
|
Post by mark on May 20, 2019 13:46:09 GMT -8
See you at 97 a share by June 2020. I am all cash with smaller positions in weekly gambling. This makes no sense at all. If $AAPL is going to be 97 in Jun 2020, you can make a crapload of money using options. Why stay in cash???
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 20, 2019 13:52:21 GMT -8
See you at 97 a share by June 2020. I am all cash with smaller positions in weekly gambling. This makes no sense at all. If $AAPL is going to be 97 in Jun 2020, you can make a crapload of money using options. Why stay in cash??? There is a perfectly reasonable expectation in your post that makes no sense, given the relevant history. Can you guess what it is?
|
|
|
Post by incorrigible on May 20, 2019 13:56:01 GMT -8
From Friday. SMH: That rumored iPhone with onscreen fingerprint reader could be very impressive. If Apple can create one in the size of the SE with 5G in two years for under $400 then we could have the rebirth of the iPhone. There are many that are asking for a smaller form factor. In other news I switched to calls today. Small position for next week.
|
|
|
Post by sponge on May 20, 2019 18:31:42 GMT -8
See you at 97 a share by June 2020. I am all cash with smaller positions in weekly gambling. This makes no sense at all. If $AAPL is going to be 97 in Jun 2020, you can make a crapload of money using options. Why stay in cash??? Will be going in and out. So today cash tomorrow in the stock or options. RSI and MACD as part of my guide for timing. 97 would be worst case scenario. Today’s TTM EPS is 11.64 and next quarter it should drop to 11.44. If iPhone sales drop 12% YOY and world economy really slows the eps should be 10.30. Multiple by 9 and change and you get 97. That’s even before China really fights back
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,622
|
Post by 4aapl on May 21, 2019 7:53:19 GMT -8
97 would be worst case scenario. Today’s TTM EPS is 11.64 and next quarter it should drop to 11.44. If iPhone sales drop 12% YOY and world economy really slows the eps should be 10.30. Multiple by 9 and change and you get 97. That’s even before China really fights back A P/E of 9 would either imply investors thinking Apple is in a really bad place (think losing 50% of iPhone sales, en route to losing it all, or China holding all iPhone production hostage such that Apple has nothing to sell), or the whole global economy going into a Great Depression/Great Recession sized fall. Using your "really slows" predictions, that's a 12% drop in EPS, vs your predicted 48% drop in share evaluation from a price that's already not at the tippy top. Feel free to invest a little in this prediction if you really think there is a little bit of probability that it will happen. If you are using $50k and think there is a 1% chance it will happen, put $500 on it. 5% chance? Go for $2500. These are the type of outliers where you can make some serious money if they happen, and without looking at the prices I'd expect a 10x return would be very available. But with how often you mention these extreme cases, it seems like you think it more probable than 1% or 5%. But to me, without very bad stuff going on that would cause EPS to drop a lot more than 12%, I just don't see a P/E of 9. Currently it's at 15.75, and I'd put 80% likelihood bounds on the 15-18 range, and 90% at 14-19. In the last decade it has occasionally made it out of that, but not too often, and a P/E of 20 has been the top end edge, I think only seeing that twice (for a few days) in the last few years. Incidentally, you're not the only one listing crazy figures. Over with Tesla, this analyst hit headlines with his $10 prediction, off of the current around $200 price. But buried in the article is that this is his bear case, and that his normal case is $230. That's a huge discrepancy. And while it gets the headlines, without some sort of probability assigned to it it kind of leaves the reader with no clue of what the analyst thinks will actually happen. The same thing happens with your wild guesses and predictions that change dramatically by the day.
|
|