crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on May 20, 2019 16:30:33 GMT -8
Sponge is a performer. Are you not entertained? We've got much bigger problems these days than someone on the internet who likes to pretend he can predict the stock price of Apple. Self-delusion is a powerful thing, but it's relatively harmless in this case. Not so much at the top of our government sadly...
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Post by sponge on May 20, 2019 18:51:07 GMT -8
I think folks are underestimating how much pain China is willing to take for in order to punish Trump and get him to back down. Their survival is dependent on the big trade imbalances where they pay no tariffs while US companies who don’t manufacture like Apple in the country have to pay tariffs. Everyone complains about the raiding of tariffs but forget that China has been charging for years on US goods I'm not so sure that China would take long-term pain for a short-term problem like the current president. After all, in 2 years he will just be a fading memory, while companies diversifying both their supply chains and manufacturing capacity will just be beginning (and will remain for decades if the lesson is indeed learned). I did not think Trump would be elected in 2016. I am unsure about his re election or weather he will strike a water down deal with China and call it great. But if there is no deal and tariffs increase and he does get re elected, this becomes a big problem for China. They will not risk all that hoping it all works out. So they have shown they can bring aapl down 38% and the whole market with it. It really scared Trump and he blinked in Dec. He is feeling confident now that the market recovered and so are they by backing away from what everyone thought was the framework of the deal. Trump is calculating he can win in 2020 by simply fighting and not winning. As I said it can all reach a climax next summer. I thought it would be this summer or the fall. But China knows how to slowly apply just the right pressure around the election.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,634
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Post by 4aapl on May 20, 2019 20:04:35 GMT -8
remember the trade war scam, it's all about the buy backs. is Apple out of the blackout period yet? I believe the blackout period after earnings are announced is very short. It's the lead-up that has the blackout, due to the potential of not everyone yet having info while a few do. While never subject to it, I remember the blackout period for high-level positions at Apple, 15 years ago, being roughly half the quarter. That would be about 6 weeks, so something like 5 weeks before earnings, and one week after. Other companies are similar, and I think people have found in the past that this is a general safe-harbor type thing from the SEC. Apple buying back shares isn't necessarily the same way, since people have said that in such situations they normally have outside places doing the purchasing, sometimes in offsetting or arbitrage-like ways. But given that earnings were more than a week ago, I would think that Apple is set to purchase whenever it wants to. This level is looking tempting. While it might not be the relative low, and things could drop further, it seems likely that this price range would give a good annualized percent return when looking back 1,2,3, or 5 years out. There will be marketwide drops sometime, and could be AAPL specific drops too, but my crystal ball sure isn't clear enough to tie it down to a month or a season. Just the same, if you aren't tied to needing the proceeds at a specific time, then you can hold through any temporary movements, and likely do pretty good. It's never a sure thing, but as someone who played with the software that set the slot machine pay tables, it seems likely that the odds on AAPL are much better than in Vegas.
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