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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2012 9:26:18 GMT -8
Wow could not have said it with more passion myself. RICK SANTELLI: "The Fed doesn't have a clue, neither does the President, neither does Congress."The absolute truth.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 27, 2012 9:43:03 GMT -8
Once again, I will attempt to remain apolitical.
I believe there are 2 plausible scenarios: a) the Rick Santelli quote b) the longer term view of 2-4 weeks. or halfway in between.
In dissecting the longer term view, there's going to be some group who "cave" or "reach across the aisle". One or the other: cave or congenial compromise. Meanwhile, other people who won't compromise.... well, skipping to next paragraph.
I believe that heavy personal pressure by phone or personal visit to political offices is the way to go. And finding people who know how to get the economy and jobs going. (normally I'd say this is destined for The Dungeon, but the trading is all about politics now anyway)
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Post by fas550 on Dec 27, 2012 9:49:23 GMT -8
So the drop today is not an Appeism. Apple has traded in the same pattern as the indexes. It's mostly about the FC today and we are along (as in another excuse) for the ride. Hopefully a major market swing down will get those in white marble buildings to act. Slight rant: I cannot believe we are in this shit again when the agreement to kick the can again and not to be here was based on it so severe to even think of. I don't even understand what I just said but you know what I mean.
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Post by lance on Dec 27, 2012 9:58:05 GMT -8
AAPL is to start 2013 at 10+month low. Since 2008 AAPL the stock has massively underperformed the growth of Apple Inc. resulting in severe P/E compression from 40's to its currently 11. All while the company has grown its cash from 24bil in 2008 to 121bil and announced a quarterly dividend. Can P/E expansion YOY ever occur again in this stock? Should I assume AAPL will be sub 10 P/E by the end of 2013.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2012 9:59:13 GMT -8
My sister sent me a recent post by Andy Zaky. In it he states the institutions have begun loading up (to some degree) on Puts..
I strongly disagree.
Over the weekend, 667,000 Options contracts either expired or were executed. Among those were 383,000 Calls, and 284,000 Puts. Those numbers are significant in that they represent P/C Ratios that far exceed total market ratios, i.e.., .74:1 vs .67:1. From Friday to Monday the P/C Ratio dropped from .68:1 to .67:1.
In other words, over the weekend more Puts were exercised/expired, than were created (in relation to Calls) over the previous 29 trading days. For the last three Weekly expiries, the reduction in Puts has exceeded the P/C Ratio. This is hard evidence that Puts are not being written at the same rate as Calls.
It may not be reflected in AAPL's price, but the Bears are in hard retreat. I interpret this as the market , sans some external short term influence, being very Bullish on Apple/AAPL.
The tax sellers have been flushed out. The only remaining influence of any consequence, in my opinion, is the fear of a "fiscal cliff". I think the consequences of the so-called "fiscal cliff" is a contrived concept, created by our leaders and the media.
The real cliff would be continuing to run the Country's financial affairs as they have for the last 45 years.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 27, 2012 10:10:08 GMT -8
My sister sent me a recent post by Andy Zaky. In it he states the institutions have begun loading up (to some degree) on Puts.. I strongly disagree. Over the weekend, 667,000 Options contracts either expired or were executed. Among those were 383,000 Calls, and 284,000 Puts. Those numbers are significant in that they represent P/C Ratios that far exceed total market ratios, i.e.., .74:1 vs .67:1. From Friday to Monday the P/C Ratio dropped from .68:1 to .67:1. In other words, over the weekend more Puts were exercised/expired, than were created (in relation to Calls) over the previous 29 trading days. For the last three Weekly expiries, the reduction in Puts has exceeded the P/C Ratio. This is hard evidence that Puts are not being written at the same rate as Calls. It may not be reflected in AAPL's price, but the Bears are in hard retreat. I interpret this as the market , sans some external short term influence, being very Bullish on Apple/AAPL. The tax sellers have been flushed out. The only remaining influence of any consequence, in my opinion, is the fear of a "fiscal cliff". I think the consequences of the so-called "fiscal cliff" is a contrived concept, created by our leaders and the media. The real cliff would be continuing to run the Country's financial affairs as they have for the last 45 years. Agree Gregg. Looking at it from Andy's perspective (like a subscriber base that right now feel they are completely wasting their money)I imagine he'd be pretty apt to spout anything just to show he's on the job. Andy is just as enthusiastic when he's wrong as he is when he's right.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 27, 2012 10:14:21 GMT -8
It may not be reflected in AAPL's price, but the Bears are in hard retreat. I interpret this as the market , sans some external short term influence, being very Bullish on Apple/AAPL. I agree the bears are in retreat. We've knocked almost 30% off the ATH. It's not a time to get uber bearish. However, just because the bears are leaving, doesn't mean they're turning into bulls. We're playing a waiting game right now. I have no doubt that we will be seeing a new low after watching the action over the past week.
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Post by kloot on Dec 27, 2012 10:17:03 GMT -8
My sister sent me a recent post by Andy Zaky. In it he states the institutions have begun loading up (to some degree) on Puts.. I strongly disagree. Over the weekend, 667,000 Options contracts either expired or were executed. Among those were 383,000 Calls, and 284,000 Puts. Those numbers are significant in that they represent P/C Ratios that far exceed total market ratios, i.e.., .74:1 vs .67:1. From Friday to Monday the P/C Ratio dropped from .68:1 to .67:1. In other words, over the weekend more Puts were exercised/expired, than were created (in relation to Calls) over the previous 29 trading days. For the last three Weekly expiries, the reduction in Puts has exceeded the P/C Ratio. This is hard evidence that Puts are not being written at the same rate as Calls. It may not be reflected in AAPL's price, but the Bears are in hard retreat. I interpret this as the market , sans some external short term influence, being very Bullish on Apple/AAPL. The tax sellers have been flushed out. The only remaining influence of any consequence, in my opinion, is the fear of a "fiscal cliff". I think the consequences of the so-called "fiscal cliff" is a contrived concept, created by our leaders and the media. The real cliff would be continuing to run the Country's financial affairs as they have for the last 45 years. Agree Gregg. Looking at it from Andy's perspective (like a subscriber base that right now feel they are completely wasting their money)I imagine he'd be pretty apt to spout anything just to show he's on the job. Andy is just as enthusiastic when he's wrong as he is when he's right. he wasn't referring to AAPL.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2012 10:23:38 GMT -8
I'll have to ask for the actual post, rather than her summary of it.
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Post by roni on Dec 27, 2012 10:49:06 GMT -8
Added to an Apple position a few minutes ago
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Post by alice on Dec 27, 2012 10:53:20 GMT -8
Added to an Apple position a few minutes ago What did you buy?
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Post by fas550 on Dec 27, 2012 10:53:56 GMT -8
Kloot what then, S&P?
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Post by alice on Dec 27, 2012 10:55:44 GMT -8
Koot, do you have access to Andy Zaky's post regarding puts ("he wasn't referring to AAPL. ")?
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Post by kloot on Dec 27, 2012 10:57:57 GMT -8
My sister sent me a recent post by Andy Zaky. In it he states the institutions have begun loading up (to some degree) on Puts.. I strongly disagree. this post (zaky comment). the P/C analysis is helpful, keep it coming, and glad you're back on the forum.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 27, 2012 10:58:12 GMT -8
Alice, WAG: AMZN
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Post by kloot on Dec 27, 2012 11:00:23 GMT -8
Koot, do you have access to Andy Zaky's post regarding puts ("he wasn't referring to AAPL. ")? he was just saying sometimes when VIX spikes, it precedes a rally becuz big money is well-hedged with puts to cover downside while they remain long. but it can also spike more in a small percentage of the cases. it was a well-hedged zaky comment, not anything definitive.
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Post by dreamRaj on Dec 27, 2012 11:02:53 GMT -8
I'm down by $900,000 from October.
I've sold all of my OTM calls now to incur a loss so I don't have to pay taxes on the profits I made earlier in the year.
This fall from 705 to 505 has been a real eye opener. The big players can decide the direction of AAPL, especially extreme falls like the ones we've recently seen. They can pull it off whenever they want and small timers like us (including so-called AAPL gurus like Andy Zaky) can do NOTHING about it.
I'm sure the stock will rebound when the new year dawns upon us but I'm not going to be such a die hard fan of AAPL (not Apple) from now on. When we hit a high, I will not remain foolishly bullish and hold on to my positions because Apple is the greatest company and its stock needs, rather deserves, to go much higher but instead I'll sell and wait for undeserving yet inevitable pullbacks to happen.
I'm sure this has been a major financial and emotional downer for many of us but all we can do at this point is look forward to good times coming our way soon.
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Post by Big Al on Dec 27, 2012 11:25:38 GMT -8
Semantics at its worst and no wiggle room when you make pledges and fear being primaried in 2014. And therein is the true problem in our government. Our political leaders are more concerned with their political futures, than they are with the future of our country. This is how it has become so easy to "kick the can" down the street, as opposed to making the hard decisions that need to be made. Our "leaders" (what a joke that statement is) are focused on negotiations/compromise to the extent that any decision made will be the one that has the least negative impact on their re-election prospects. They spend more time campaigning for Office, than they do carrying out the duties of their office. The pay is dismal, so its all about ego, and being addressed as Congressman or Senator for the rest of their life. I see no way out of this mess as long as an electorate (dumbest people on the planet) is involved in the process. Gregg, the argument that political leaders act and decide so that they remain in power is almost a fact in political science. I can recommend a book by a former professor of mine: The Logic of Political SurvivalBy the way, the pay is great, but not the official salary they receive. For example, until the beginning of the 90s Senators and Congressman were able to keep the funds raised for re-election when they decided to retire. They changed the law in the beginning of the 90s and guess what? The rate of Senators and Congressman that retired, basically taking their funds with them, went up by a multiple. These people make enough money (sometimes when they retire and work as a lobbyist) but it is not the money they receive as "salary" from the government.
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Post by mjuarez on Dec 27, 2012 11:30:44 GMT -8
I'm sure this has been a major financial and emotional downer for many of us but all we can do at this point is look forward to good times coming our way soon. +1000.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 27, 2012 11:53:54 GMT -8
DreamRaj appreciate your honesty. I am down about the same if that's any consolation. I am still in on my 700 and 800 OTM options but they are Jan 2014s. I have a Apr 2013 695/715 spread that is down about 80K and that's the only one I'm sweating. (Amended) Oh and BTW right with you there on lessons learned. Been developing a plan for a few weeks and put it somewhere where I can read it daily.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 27, 2012 12:06:42 GMT -8
DreamRaj appreciate your honesty. I am down about the same if that's any consolation. I am still in on my 700 and 800 OTM options but they are Jan 2014s. I have a Apr 2013 695/715 spread that is down about 80K and that's the only one I'm sweating. I'm holding the same. I still believe we will profit off those, no matter what your entry was.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 27, 2012 12:12:59 GMT -8
DreamRaj appreciate your honesty. I am down about the same if that's any consolation. I am still in on my 700 and 800 OTM options but they are Jan 2014s. I have a Apr 2013 695/715 spread that is down about 80K and that's the only one I'm sweating. I'm holding the same. I still believe we will profit off those, no matter what your entry was. Yep I remember that Mr. Doc. I have bought back (buy close) about 25% of the 715 calls. Thinking about buying the rest once the turnaround seems firm.
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Post by podboy on Dec 27, 2012 12:15:30 GMT -8
Crazy price action today. Rumor is that congress will be holding a FC meeting on Sunday, some people might be buying today and tomorrow in case of a resolution which will no doubt impact the markets favorably.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 27, 2012 12:20:06 GMT -8
Crazy price action today. Rumor is that congress will be holding a FC meeting on Sunday, some people might be buying today and tomorrow in case of a resolution which will no doubt impact the markets favorably. That's exactly what it was. Congress is reconvening Sunday. The moment the news came out everything reversed.
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Post by terps530 on Dec 27, 2012 12:23:10 GMT -8
funny day that now aapl is about to turn green again. also funny how much market moving power the politicians have these days.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 27, 2012 12:26:24 GMT -8
What a reversal (so far). Better than I expected on just the news of them coming back to work.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 27, 2012 12:31:01 GMT -8
So the 505 area held again today, for a triple bottom. Thought for sure it was going to give.
We still got a long way to go until we're out of the FC crap, and doubt seriously the clowns in DC will get it together before midnight Monday. Jon Najarian said he's entirely out of the market, apparently expecting whipsaws like in August '11. Talk about an unforced error. And these clowns have so far thrown cold water on the retail holiday season, and could very well throw us into a recession.
Horseshoe says he doesn't take AAPL seriously until it gets above the 10 day sma. I agree. Too dangerous down here.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 27, 2012 12:34:12 GMT -8
I really hate the way the market moves on news like this. No resolution = even harder fall.
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Post by sponge on Dec 27, 2012 12:53:17 GMT -8
I really hate the way the market moves on news like this. No resolution = even harder fall. Thats how the big boys make money. They have to come up with a reason to sell or buy. Congress and the WH are making sure major campaign donors are making millions with each press release. I don't expect a deal until end of January. This is a temporary bottom but I think the low for Dec. I see us possibly going going lower next month. We just need to get to 530 so when we crash we don't stay below $500 for long.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 27, 2012 12:56:32 GMT -8
Given a bad situation this is actually a bit of good and some hope. Those who work in the white marble buildings have now had a taste of what is likely to happen and actually coming up with an agreement is looking more appealing as the path of least resistance. Also to a lesser extent I find it difficult but not impossible to believe they would be coming back on the Sunday before New Years if they thought no agreement is possible or the intention is to not make an agreement.
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