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Post by wheeles on Dec 27, 2012 12:56:42 GMT -8
The market got a raging Boehner on talk of a last ditch House session of more bread and circuses. Ridiculous. Funny how AAPL made it all the way back to weekly options max pain.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2012 13:39:53 GMT -8
I'm down by $900,000 from October. I've sold all of my OTM calls now to incur a loss so I don't have to pay taxes on the profits I made earlier in the year. I know your pain. Actually there is. We can watch, very closely, what the institutions are doing. Nothing illustrates that better than % institutional ownership and P/C Ratio.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2012 13:43:04 GMT -8
Crazy price action today. Rumor is that congress will be holding a FC meeting on Sunday, some people might be buying today and tomorrow in case of a resolution which will no doubt impact the markets favorably. Wasn't it great? I dipped my toe into the water with Jan Wk1 $515/$520 Call Spreads at $1.85. Could have got them at $1.60 a while later, but they closed at $2.45 so I'm not complaining.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2012 14:00:05 GMT -8
Gregg, the argument that political leaders act and decide so that they remain in power is almost a fact in political science. I can recommend a book by a former professor of mine: The Logic of Political SurvivalBy the way, the pay is great, but not the official salary they receive. For example, until the beginning of the 90s Senators and Congressman were able to keep the funds raised for re-election when they decided to retire. They changed the law in the beginning of the 90s and guess what? The rate of Senators and Congressman that retired, basically taking their funds with them, went up by a multiple. These people make enough money (sometimes when they retire and work as a lobbyist) but it is not the money they receive as "salary" from the government. Just bought the hard cover. Thanks Al.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2012 14:06:44 GMT -8
And these clowns have so far thrown cold water on the retail holiday season, and could very well throw us into a recession. Had the clowns had the intestinal fortitude to make the decisions, they would have allowed the failures of banks without the bailouts. The only thing that disappeared were artificially inflated assets. Customer demand for services did not. Clean balance sheets would have attracted investors setting our economy up for a much faster recovery. In the interim the pain would have been more severe, albeit far shorter in duration. The key though, is that the economy wouldn't be dragging the cost of the bailouts along with it as it tries to expand. This financial crisis, emanating in 2007, has been managed to save political careers, and nothing else.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 27, 2012 14:31:55 GMT -8
Cautiously optimistic, whispered wheeeeeee!!
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Post by rickag on Dec 27, 2012 14:42:01 GMT -8
Cautiously optimistic, whispered wheeeeeee!! For my Jan 13 610/620 Apr 13 685/700s and Apr 13 690/700s we're going to need a few more and much more vocal wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees. I'll take your whispered wheeeeeee for now and pray to the great options god in the sky.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 27, 2012 15:06:26 GMT -8
A recession in AAPL would feel like...um, the last four months...but longer...
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 27, 2012 15:08:42 GMT -8
Actually there is. We can watch, very closely, what the institutions are doing. Nothing illustrates that better than % institutional ownership and P/C Ratio. I would add: MACD-h on the daily and weekly charts.
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Post by roni on Dec 27, 2012 15:14:32 GMT -8
Added to an Apple position a few minutes ago What did you buy? Jan 2014 $600, as soon as I read news of Senator Brown's tweet
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 27, 2012 16:20:29 GMT -8
Get ready for tomorrow - this market is going to be all over the place. This just over Reuter's:
FLASH: President Obama to host meeting on Friday with Reid, McConnell, Boehner and Pelosi at White House: White House aide
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Post by alice on Dec 27, 2012 17:07:57 GMT -8
DreamRaj appreciate your honesty. I am down about the same if that's any consolation. I am still in on my 700 and 800 OTM options but they are Jan 2014s. I have a Apr 2013 695/715 spread that is down about 80K and that's the only one I'm sweating. (Amended) Oh and BTW right with you there on lessons learned. Been developing a plan for a few weeks and put it somewhere where I can read it daily. Fas550, please share your plan in the AAPL Exit plan thread under AAPL Trading.
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Post by alice on Dec 27, 2012 17:14:39 GMT -8
I think there are end-of-the-year loss selling/harvesting till end of 2012 - this type of selling will end next Monday.
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Post by roni on Dec 27, 2012 17:46:57 GMT -8
Get ready for tomorrow - this market is going to be all over the place. This just over Reuter's: FLASH: President Obama to host meeting on Friday with Reid, McConnell, Boehner and Pelosi at White House: White House aide I think I am ready for the next year. No further moves needed, but I will add another couple of dividend positions over the next week
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 27, 2012 18:26:32 GMT -8
Sold my protective 510/505 weekly put spreads @ 1.60. Bought at 1.23 at the close Monday. More money available to get bullish when the time is right. Well done!!
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2012 18:50:12 GMT -8
Get ready for tomorrow - this market is going to be all over the place. This just over Reuter's: FLASH: President Obama to host meeting on Friday with Reid, McConnell, Boehner and Pelosi at White House: White House aide Send Reid and Pelosi out for a cup of coffee, and you'll make more progress. Or maybe not.
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Post by sponge on Dec 27, 2012 19:33:40 GMT -8
Get ready for tomorrow - this market is going to be all over the place. This just over Reuter's: FLASH: President Obama to host meeting on Friday with Reid, McConnell, Boehner and Pelosi at White House: White House aide Send Reid and Pelosi out for a cup of coffee, and you'll make more progress. Or maybe not. Nothing will come of the weekend meeting the market will crash on Monday. A shorter trading day will prevent it from dropping 300 points.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 27, 2012 20:12:55 GMT -8
Send Reid and Pelosi out for a cup of coffee, and you'll make more progress. Or maybe not. Nothing will come of the weekend meeting the market will crash on Monday. A shorter trading day will prevent it from dropping 300 points. I'm pretty sure it's a full day Monday.
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Post by sponge on Dec 27, 2012 20:18:24 GMT -8
Nothing will come of the weekend meeting the market will crash on Monday. A shorter trading day will prevent it from dropping 300 points. I'm pretty sure it's a full day Monday. You are correct. Get ready for 300 then.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 27, 2012 20:30:26 GMT -8
I'm pretty sure it's a full day Monday. You are correct. Get ready for 300 then. Really, Sponge. I just don't think so. Everybody knows that on January 3rd, ten minutes after Boehner is re-elcted Speaker, the deal gets formulated. It's a "tax cut" then rather than a tax increase. ( I love semantics. ). Mr. Market knows some kind of deal is coming so the EOs are trying to guess when to catch the bus...or how to avoid stepping in front of it. There are betters on both sides..... So Monday through Thursday next week will look like yesterday and today...rumors to buy on, rumors to sell on....but the only certainty is that a deal WILL get done soon. It won't take longer than January 9th. My bet would be sooner. Obama wins this round.....why the Republicans played their hand so very badly is the stuff books get written about. JMHO, of course.
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Post by sponge on Dec 27, 2012 21:08:51 GMT -8
You are correct. Get ready for 300 then. Really, Sponge. I just don't think so. Everybody knows that on January 3rd, ten minutes after Boehner is re-elcted Speaker, the deal gets formulated. It's a "tax cut" then rather than a tax increase. ( I love semantics. ). Mr. Market knows some kind of deal is coming so the EOs are trying to guess when to catch the bus...or how to avoid stepping in front of it. There are betters on both sides..... So Monday through Thursday next week will look like yesterday and today...rumors to buy on, rumors to sell on....but the only certainty is that a deal WILL get done soon. It won't take longer than January 9th. My bet would be sooner. Obama wins this round.....why the Republicans played their hand so very badly is the stuff books get written about. JMHO, of course. I dont see a deal until end of January. The market will teach Obama a lesson in how increasing taxes hurts the market. We dropped 140 points today and everyone knows there is no deal this week. Wait until we get over the cliff and there is still no deal. Boehner wants to remain speaker and attempting to force the Tea Party folks to take more money from everyone so the WH has more to spend won't get him re-elected. Too many Republicans will lose a primary race if they vote for smaller tax cuts with no big cuts in spending. Conservatives will send the GOP a message the same way they send the DNC a message in 2010. That is if Most of the Bush tax cuts don't get put back with major cuts in government spending. Conservative stayed home in Nov, and when the economy goes further south after the dividend taxes goes up and the market remains flat for two years, they will come back. I think Obama will blink and we will get a better deal then most will realize come February.
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Post by rosie on Dec 27, 2012 21:30:49 GMT -8
ooops, I was giving Red a +1000 and hit send to soon.
so, +1001!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 27, 2012 21:41:04 GMT -8
Really, Sponge. I just don't think so. Everybody knows that on January 3rd, ten minutes after Boehner is re-elcted Speaker, the deal gets formulated. It's a "tax cut" then rather than a tax increase. ( I love semantics. ). Mr. Market knows some kind of deal is coming so the EOs are trying to guess when to catch the bus...or how to avoid stepping in front of it. There are betters on both sides..... So Monday through Thursday next week will look like yesterday and today...rumors to buy on, rumors to sell on....but the only certainty is that a deal WILL get done soon. It won't take longer than January 9th. My bet would be sooner. Obama wins this round.....why the Republicans played their hand so very badly is the stuff books get written about. JMHO, of course. I dont see a deal until end of January. The market will teach Obama a lesson in how increasing taxes hurts the market. We dropped 140 points today and everyone knows there is no deal this week. Wait until we get over the cliff and there is still no deal. Boehner wants to remain speaker and attempting to force the Tea Party folks to take more money from everyone so the WH has more to spend won't get him re-elected. Too many Republicans will lose a primary race if they vote for smaller tax cuts with no big cuts in spending. Conservatives will send the GOP a message the same way they send the DNC a message in 2010. That is if Most of the Bush tax cuts don't get put back with major cuts in government spending. Conservative stayed home in Nov, and when the economy goes further south after the dividend taxes goes up and the market remains flat for two years, they will come back. I think Obama will blink and we will get a better deal then most will realize come February. Nope.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2012 23:22:20 GMT -8
Looking at it from an unsympathetic outsiders view, the math for the USA doesn't currently add up.
It needs both big tax increases AND large spending cuts if it hopes to have any chance of averting its debt death spiral.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 27, 2012 23:56:55 GMT -8
Looking at it from an unsympathetic outsiders view, the math for the USA doesn't currently add up. It needs both big tax increases AND large spending cuts if it hopes to have any chance of averting its debt death spiral. Yep, can't have a Swedish entitlement state and not have everyone paying high taxes. That's the big canard, that tax increases on the rich - which would pay for maybe a couple days of government - would make any difference. The truth is, the best thing that could happen to the fiscal health of the country would be going off the cliff, taxes expire and sequester cuts. Of course, the markets would tank, and we'd take dangerous hits to our military. The Chinese would like it. But I doubt any of the board's portfolios would. The conventional wisdom seems to hold that the GOP House would take the blame. However, midterms - two years away - tend to help the party out of the White House in bad times. And Obama should take heed of the best quote of the day: “Remember who the speaker of the House was during the Hoover administration?”
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