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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 4:10:05 GMT -8
Last Friday of the year...we started the year with concerns that Europe would be our demise and end the year with the demise being right at home. Let's hope that in some way...some how...the Washington crew can get their acts together! In the red again this morning...but more importantly, it's how we close the day that matters.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 28, 2012 4:16:24 GMT -8
We're now at a point where either the march to 500 continues, or we're in a bull flag looking to get to something like 526. I'm starting to move towards the bull side and lots of Fiscal Cliff deal talk might push things that way.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2012 4:21:40 GMT -8
Strong demand prompts Apple suppliers to work during Chinese New Year
By Mikey Campbell
Two of Apple's Chinese manufacturing partners are said to be foregoing a traditional work stoppage during the important Chinese New Year in a bid to meet ongoing high demand for the iPhone 5 and iPad mini.
Details regarding the work schedule change are scarce, but Taiwan's United Daily News (via Brightwire) claims that Hon Hai Precision Industries and Flexium Interconnect will keep certain production lines open during the Chinese New Year to keep up with demand for Apple's newest iDevices. For 2013, China's most important holiday will start on Feb. 10.
According to the publication, Hon Hai, better known as Foxconn, will be operating a number of iPhone and iPad mini assembly lines, while Flexium will keep its factory in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province staffed with "a large number" of trained student workers.
If true, the work continuation will mirror an identical decision made in 2011 by Apple manufacturing partner Pegatron, which reportedly offered employees triple pay to work over the Chinese New Year. No such bump in pay has been reported for 2013.
A move to keep production facilities online during the holiday would be an indication that supply is just barely meeting demand, as evidenced by the U.S. Apple Online Store's one-week wait time for all iPad mini models. As for the the iPhone 5, Apple proceeded with its most ambitious rollout ever and debuted the handset in its 101st market, the Caribbean island of St. Kitts, on Thursday. As pointed out by Fortune's Philip Elmer-Dewitt, the latest launch received little fanfare from press outlets.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 28, 2012 4:37:13 GMT -8
The new 21 inch iMac ships in 7-10 business days. (suggesting up to 2 weeks) The new 27 inch iMac ships in January. (30 days?) From APPLE.COM/USA
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 28, 2012 4:44:20 GMT -8
Details regarding the work schedule change are scarce, This post represents one of the finest examples of POSITIVE FUD that I have ever read. The idea that Foxconn and other Apple suppliers are ALREADY asking their employees to work OVERTIME in February is hard for me to believe.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 4:47:50 GMT -8
I am an equal opportunity FUD reader - positive or negative. That being said, there is ALWAYS so much more negative out there so when a little positive comes along - heck, I'll take it and run with it!
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 28, 2012 4:53:48 GMT -8
It APPEARS AMZN had a great holiday: On the peak day, Nov. 26, customers ordered more than 26.5 million items worldwide across all product categories, which is a record-breaking 306 items per second. Amazon customers purchased more than one toy per second on mobile devices. Amazon customers purchased enough copies of the “Fifty Shades” trilogy by E.L. James, including “Fifty Shades of Grey,” “Fifty Shades Darker,” “Fifty Shades Freed” and the trilogy box set, to create a stack 445 times taller than the Space Needle. The cumulative weight of the “Bond 50” Blu-ray sets purchased by Amazon customers this holiday season would be 800 times the weight of Daniel Craig. If each customer that purchased a copy of Just Dance 4 played the game for one hour, the total number of calories burned would equal half a million slices of fruitcake. Amazon customers purchased enough TVs to cover the field of every NFL stadium. Amazon customers purchased enough vinyl copies of The Beatles albums that if laid flat would extend 20 times the length of Abbey Road in London. The Amazon MP3 store has sold enough music for everyone at Woodstock ’69 to jam out to another three days of music for peace and love. If you stacked every Christmas Story Leg Lamp purchased by Amazon customers this holiday season, the height would reach the top of Mt. Everest. Amazon customers purchased enough sports team garden gnomes to fill every seat in Madison Square Garden. Amazon customers purchased enough Angry Birds plush toys to stretch 285 times the height of the tallest tree in the world, located in California’s Redwood Forest. Amazon’s third-party sellers sold enough Lindt truffles to serve one to every traveler passing through Chicago O’Hare Airport over a weekend. Amazon’s third-party sellers sold enough HDMI cables to make three round-trips to the International Space Station. Amazon customers added more than 15 million toys to their Wish Lists this holiday season. FROM HERE!HERE is an ANALYSIS
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Post by mourad88 on Dec 28, 2012 4:59:29 GMT -8
Details regarding the work schedule change are scarce, This post represents one of the finest examples of POSITIVE FUD that I have ever read. The idea that Foxconn and other Apple suppliers are ALREADY asking their employees to work OVERTIME in February is hard for me to believe. Many people in China go back to their hometowns 1-2 months prior to CNY so it's not hard to imagine that Honhai is trying to figure out their staffing levels now.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 5:27:35 GMT -8
I feel like every day we attempt to assign a reason for the drop. Today it's the weeklies. Price action never seems to be as violent on the way up but explosive on the way down. I thought these shenanigans (new political term, evidently) would lighten up as tax selling abates...but I guess not yet.
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Post by lance on Dec 28, 2012 5:44:39 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 28, 2012 5:52:18 GMT -8
If this is true, it is amazing: More than half of all Mac users are younger than 20.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 6:05:28 GMT -8
If this is true, it is amazing: More than half of all Mac users are younger than 20. I'm sure it's true. I've been at a prominent college campus for the last 8 years. It's all Mac, all Apple. I don't have a single friend with a non-Mac computer. I have one friend who uses a Galaxy S2. The rest use iPhones. You could say, hey, maybe appledoc doesn't have many friends. But I do. ;D
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Post by Rupert on Dec 28, 2012 6:07:42 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Friday 12/28/2012
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 6:10:40 GMT -8
If this is true, it is amazing: More than half of all Mac users are younger than 20. I'm sure it's true. I've been at a prominent college campus for the last 8 years. It's all Mac, all Apple. I don't have a single friend with a non-Mac computer. I have one friend who uses a Galaxy S2. The rest use iPhones. You could say, hey, maybe appledoc doesn't have many friends. But I do. ;D Son at Harvard - daughter went to Columbia - every single one of their friends and acquaintances own an iPhone, iPad, and a Mac...some have AAPL TV as well. They are all about AAPL's ecosystem particularly with their iTunes, pics etc. They get it...they see the value in it. Son also on a team at Harvard - every single boy (18-22 years of age) on that team owns an iPhone....every one of them.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 28, 2012 6:11:01 GMT -8
As for price action, we'll know shortly whether this is just a healthy retrace of the move of the lows yesterday or we're still looking for a new low.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 28, 2012 6:21:03 GMT -8
It APPEARS AMZN had a great holiday: On the peak day, Nov. 26, customers ordered more than 26.5 million items worldwide across all product categories, which is a record-breaking 306 items per second. Hopefully for them that will translate into some actual profits. Last qtr they had a -0.60 loss and this qtr estimates are for 0.28 (yes its difficult to believe 0.28 cents on a stock that is over $220 a share). Anyway given each Amazon branded tablet sold drags that +0.28 lower I think it's iffy they are going to make it. As I have said before I am 50/50 on shorting it this qtr. However next qtr the odds get better and the qtr after that based in current estimates (0.36 and 0.35 respectively). Those two qtrs last year came in at 0.28 and 0.01. Given the losses they take on those tablets their savior could be the content people buy on those tablets but I have serious doubts MOST people that decided to go with the least expensive tablet are looking to download paid content in any quantity. I remember a while back an article of how much content would need to be purchased to make a Kindle Fire profitable and I believe it was either $40 or $70 and that's just to break even. Kindle Fire sells with a free limited subscription to Amazon Prime so many of the movies and TV no Prime members pay for are a free for new a kindle owners. JMHO. I have only shorted AMZN once and it worked out well. It is risky shorting them because even meeting estimates usually results in a surge on the stock. Jeff Bezos is a master at playing analysts on a Conf call (who are mostly too willing to be played given their estimates) but I have noticed more recently the promises that hold up that P/E are running thin and old.
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Post by PikesPique on Dec 28, 2012 6:54:16 GMT -8
If this is true, it is amazing: More than half of all Mac users are younger than 20. Since this information (I won't call it "data," as it comes from anything but a scientific study) is from a Facebook survey, it is most assuredly highly skewed. If the survey was only in English, it is even more highly skewed. Absolutely worthless.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 28, 2012 7:08:27 GMT -8
70% increase in Christmas Day appl download dollars.... m.9to5mac.com/9to5mac/#!/entry/app-store-on-christmas-day-2012-saw-downloads-increase-87,50dcabe5d7fc7b5670c6efa4
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 28, 2012 7:54:17 GMT -8
I'm down here in Orlando, FLA, where Rutgers will be playing VaTech in a bowl game today. Last night, we were at Downtown Disney, and as in every public situation I am I, I have this curiosity to see what phones the public uses. Since there was quite a bit of picture taking being done, it was fairly easy to assess this.
I noticed a young female (20/30 YO) had a non-IPhone in one situation, but it seems like every other phone was an IPhone. This included a good number of non-English speaking folks with I-Phones, who appeared to be visitors. In my hotel (which is the Rutgers team hotel), again almost unanimously I-Phones. (Admittedly, this is a population with demographics skewed to the affluent side.)
But when you read that Samesung is selling about the same number of smartphones as AAPL in the US, I'd like to know where. (Although I did run into someone in the first days after Sandy - we were both charging our devices at our town's First Aid building - who had a Kindle Fire, and it looked like price may have been the differentiator.)
I also was at the local Verizon store on Christmas eve (getting a "hot spot" so I can watch the bowl games on New Years Day on the ride back to Jersey), and the guy taking care of me said they they were selling "IPhones, Galaxies, you name it" when I asked what was selling. But I'm not seeing those other phones that often.
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Post by flyonthewall on Dec 28, 2012 8:16:22 GMT -8
Good read on the whole cannibalization issue with AAPL products: What Cannibalization?Forgive me if this has been posted elsewhere.
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Post by fas550 on Dec 28, 2012 8:22:17 GMT -8
I'm down here in Orlando, FLA, where Rutgers will be playing VaTech in a bowl game today. Last night, we were at Downtown Disney, and as in every public situation I am I, I have this curiosity to see what phones the public uses. Since there was quite a bit of picture taking being done, it was fairly easy to assess this. I noticed a young female (20/30 YO) had a non-IPhone in one situation, but it seems like every other phone was an IPhone. This included a good number of non-English speaking folks with I-Phones, who appeared to be visitors. In my hotel (which is the Rutgers team hotel), again almost unanimously I-Phones. (Admittedly, this is a population with demographics skewed to the affluent side.) But when you read that Samesung is selling about the same number of smartphones as AAPL in the US, I'd like to know where. (Although I did run into someone in the first days after Sandy - we were both charging our devices at our town's First Aid building - who had a Kindle Fire, and it looked like price may have been the differentiator.) I also was at the local Verizon store on Christmas eve (getting a "hot spot" so I can watch the bowl games on New Years Day on the ride back to Jersey), and the guy taking care of me said they they were selling "IPhones, Galaxies, you name it" when I asked what was selling. But I'm not seeing those other phones that often. I'm with you. For the U.S. only I don't see how Samsung is the dominant phone. However I will say I am not exposed daily to all economic groups and cultures as I doubt most of us are. My neighborhood has quite a few immigrants and I can tell you it is rare to see an iPhone. The Samsung phones are very cheap here in the U.S. compared to many other countries and many of the Pay as you go phones are Samsung. It is not out of the realm of possibility that many are bought here and sent out of the country, probably even in bulk.
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Post by spoonman on Dec 28, 2012 8:35:00 GMT -8
I'm down here in Orlando, FLA, where Rutgers will be playing VaTech in a bowl game today. Last night, we were at Downtown Disney, and as in every public situation I am I, I have this curiosity to see what phones the public uses. Since there was quite a bit of picture taking being done, it was fairly easy to assess this. I noticed a young female (20/30 YO) had a non-IPhone in one situation, but it seems like every other phone was an IPhone. This included a good number of non-English speaking folks with I-Phones, who appeared to be visitors. In my hotel (which is the Rutgers team hotel), again almost unanimously I-Phones. (Admittedly, this is a population with demographics skewed to the affluent side.) But when you read that Samesung is selling about the same number of smartphones as AAPL in the US, I'd like to know where. (Although I did run into someone in the first days after Sandy - we were both charging our devices at our town's First Aid building - who had a Kindle Fire, and it looked like price may have been the differentiator.) I also was at the local Verizon store on Christmas eve (getting a "hot spot" so I can watch the bowl games on New Years Day on the ride back to Jersey), and the guy taking care of me said they they were selling "IPhones, Galaxies, you name it" when I asked what was selling. But I'm not seeing those other phones that often. I'm with you. For the U.S. only I don't see how Samsung is the dominant phone. However I will say I am not exposed daily to all economic groups and cultures as I doubt most of us are. My neighborhood has quite a few immigrants and I can tell you it is rare to see an iPhone. The Samsung phones are very cheap here in the U.S. compared to many other countries and many of the Pay as you go phones are Samsung. It is not out of the realm of possibility that many are bought here and sent out of the country, probably even in bulk. I live on the lower east side. 6 cell phone stores, 2 metro pcs stores. It's 80% non iPhones and mainly Samsung phones. Go to any office, or middle to upper middle class suburban town in jersey, CT, NY and it's mainly iphones. Walk around where I live and it's non iphones. If you ride the subway you can even see it change. Midtown people get on or the upper east and west and its iphones. Lower East side, china town, brooklyn subway stops(the L train is an exception b/c it's mainly iPhones) and it's non iphones. Once you leave suburbia and go to these areas of the city and i'm sure it's similar to all cities and you see mainly non iphones. What's crazy to me is that the cell phone plan is where the main cost is, not the phone but people just don't see that. I almost feel it's criminal that people who can barely afford basic things in life are paying over $100 bucks a month for these smartphone plans.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2012 9:15:37 GMT -8
Details regarding the work schedule change are scarce, This post represents one of the finest examples of POSITIVE FUD that I have ever read. The idea that Foxconn and other Apple suppliers are ALREADY asking their employees to work OVERTIME in February is hard for me to believe. And this coming off reports Wednesday, that Apple is going to miss its numbers because suppliers are having yield problems. Blech. Anybody that gets excited by a media report of unsubstantiated this or that, just isn't paying attention.
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 28, 2012 9:21:06 GMT -8
I'm with you. For the U.S. only I don't see how Samsung is the dominant phone. However I will say I am not exposed daily to all economic groups and cultures as I doubt most of us are. My neighborhood has quite a few immigrants and I can tell you it is rare to see an iPhone. The Samsung phones are very cheap here in the U.S. compared to many other countries and many of the Pay as you go phones are Samsung. It is not out of the realm of possibility that many are bought here and sent out of the country, probably even in bulk. I live on the lower east side. 6 cell phone stores, 2 metro pcs stores. It's 80% non iPhones and mainly Samsung phones. Go to any office, or middle to upper middle class suburban town in jersey, CT, NY and it's mainly iphones. Walk around where I live and it's non iphones. If you ride the subway you can even see it change. Midtown people get on or the upper east and west and its iphones. Lower East side, china town, brooklyn subway stops(the L train is an exception b/c it's mainly iPhones) and it's non iphones. Once you leave suburbia and go to these areas of the city and i'm sure it's similar to all cities and you see mainly non iphones. What's crazy to me is that the cell phone plan is where the main cost is, not the phone but people just don't see that. I almost feel it's criminal that people who can barely afford basic things in life are paying over $100 bucks a month for these smartphone plans. Try walking a few blocks west to Ludlow or Broome or Orchard Street or Mott or Mulberry or to SOHO or TriBeCa - West Village - it is all about iPhones. The only area I see Samesung is in the Chinatown area....I think you are focusing on a small area altho not sure what you are calling the lower East Side at this point. And completely agree on the cell phone plans !
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2012 9:27:52 GMT -8
If this is true, it is amazing: More than half of all Mac users are younger than 20. Which means that since the original iMac 3/4ths of all Mac users are new to the platform.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2012 10:10:23 GMT -8
I also was at the local Verizon store on Christmas eve (getting a "hot spot" so I can watch the bowl games on New Years Day on the ride back to Jersey), and the guy taking care of me said they they were selling "IPhones, Galaxies, you name it" when I asked what was selling. But I'm not seeing those other phones that often.My take on random Store reports is that, unless you have an ongoing relationship with the rep, they aren't going to tell you anything substantive. You're going to get a management approved and totally worthless comment.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2012 10:22:06 GMT -8
What's crazy to me is that the cell phone plan is where the main cost is, not the phone but people just don't see that. I almost feel it's criminal that people who can barely afford basic things in life are paying over $100 bucks a month for these smartphone plans. The government world opens up to you, and out of all proportion to when your income drops below an arbitrary line. I would venture to say that the average person hasn't a clue as to the extent of assistance the "poor" are entitled to...and receive. It costs the federal government about $60K per year to provide for each person living under the poverty line, a line that would have been considered well off just a few years ago.
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Post by spoonman on Dec 28, 2012 10:23:23 GMT -8
I live on the lower east side. 6 cell phone stores, 2 metro pcs stores. It's 80% non iPhones and mainly Samsung phones. Go to any office, or middle to upper middle class suburban town in jersey, CT, NY and it's mainly iphones. Walk around where I live and it's non iphones. If you ride the subway you can even see it change. Midtown people get on or the upper east and west and its iphones. Lower East side, china town, brooklyn subway stops(the L train is an exception b/c it's mainly iPhones) and it's non iphones. Once you leave suburbia and go to these areas of the city and i'm sure it's similar to all cities and you see mainly non iphones. What's crazy to me is that the cell phone plan is where the main cost is, not the phone but people just don't see that. I almost feel it's criminal that people who can barely afford basic things in life are paying over $100 bucks a month for these smartphone plans. Try walking a few blocks west to Ludlow or Broome or Orchard Street or Mott or Mulberry or to SOHO or TriBeCa - West Village - it is all about iPhones. The only area I see Samesung is in the Chinatown area....I think you are focusing on a small area altho not sure what you are calling the lower East Side at this point. And completely agree on the cell phone plans ! I agree in the hipper areas like ludlow and orchard it's iphones but those are kids that come over to the area to party. I'm talking about "townies" or whatever city people call long time residents of the area. Like Clinton Street, Pitt Street, Attorney Street etc.. The old school puerto ricans and african americans. The tenemant with two grandpas, a girl in her 20s and two little kids all living in a 2 bedroom. That type of lower east side. (disclaimer, I live on clinton street but grew up in jersey) All really nice people around here for the most part but just don't have any money.
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Post by spoonman on Dec 28, 2012 10:27:59 GMT -8
What's crazy to me is that the cell phone plan is where the main cost is, not the phone but people just don't see that. I almost feel it's criminal that people who can barely afford basic things in life are paying over $100 bucks a month for these smartphone plans. The government world opens up to you, and out of all proportion to when your income drops below an arbitrary line. I would venture to say that the average person hasn't a clue as to the extent of assistance the "poor" are entitled to...and receive. It costs the federal government about $60K per year to provide for each person living under the poverty line, a line that would have been considered well off just a few years ago. I'm sure it does. I don't really know that world or how it works or what benefits the government doles out but i'm sure it's around what you are quoting. My only insight into this is that l work from home a good part of the week sometimes and I see the same 50 people all along my street in NYC just hanging out. Same stoop, same street corner just all mingling and chatting and hanging. Not working but live in the neighborhood. Someone is supporting them but i'm not sure who. I don't have the ba**s to ask them how they are able to survive just hanging out but I would totally like to.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 28, 2012 10:28:21 GMT -8
What you can do from a risk/return perspective is crazy at these prices. Just sold April 650/660 put spreads for $9.23. Risk $77.00 for a potential $923 gain per contract.
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